Climate change 2007, Mitigation of climate change The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Dr. Charles W. Rice Kansas State University
Climate change 2007, Mitigation of climate change
The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
Dr. Charles W. RiceKansas State University
Main conclusion on mitigation of climate change
…There is substantial economic potential for the mit igation
of global GHG emissions over the coming decades,
that could offset the projected growth of global em issions
or reduce emissions below current levels…
The challenge
Between 1970 and 2004 global greenhouse
gas emissions have increased by 70%
GtCO2-eq/yr
Total Greenhouse Gas emissions
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
1970 1980 1990 2000 2004
Carbon dioxide is the largest contributor
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1970 1980 1990 2000 2004
CO2 other5
CO2 fossil fuel use
0
5
10
1970 1980 1990 2000 2004
CO2 deforestation3,4
CO2 decay and peat2
0
5
10
1970 1980 1990 2000 2004
CH4 energy1
CH4 agriculture
CH4 waste and other
0
5
1970 1980 1990 2000 2004
N2O agriculture
N2O other
0
5
1970 1980 1990 2000 2004
HFCs, PFCs, SF6
Gt CO2eq/yr
F-gases
Di-nitrogen-oxide
Methane
Carbon Dioxide
Carbon Dioxide
Global greenhouse gas emissions will continue to gr ow
By 2030 there will be a 25-90% increase in greenhouse gas
emissions compared with 2000 unless additional policy
measures are put in place
GtCO2-eq/yr
2030
IPCC SRES scenarios
2000
0
20
40
60
80
A1F1 A2 A1T B2A1B B1
F-gases
Total greenhouse gas emissions
Carbon Dioxide
Nitrous Dioxide
Methane
Emissions of greenhouse gases can be avoided
There is substantial capability to prevent emission s of greenhouse gases in 2030.
<0 <20 <50 <100 US$/tCO2-eq <20 <50 <100 US$/tCO2-eq
Global economic potential in 2030
Note: estimates do not include non-technical options such as lifestyle changes
BOTTOM-UPGtCO2-eq TOP-DOWNGtCO2-eq
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
low end of range high end of range
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
low end of range high end of range Pro
ject
ed in
crea
se G
HG
em
issi
ons
in 2
030
abov
e 20
00
GtCO2-eq
A2
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
A1F1 A1B A1T B1 B2
Greenhouse gas emissions
Economic mitigation potential until 2030 could offs et the projected growth of global emissions, or reduce emissions below current levels
Mitigation measures do not have an unrealistically high price
Crude oil
~US$25/barrel
Gasoline
~12ct/litre (50ct/gallon)
Electricity
from coal fired plant: ~5ct/kWh
from gas fired plant: ~1.5ct/kWh
What does US$50/tCOeq mean?
All sectors and regions have the potential to contribute
Energy supply Transport Buildings Industry Agriculture F orestry Waste
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0<20 <50 <100 <20 <50 <100 <20 <50 <100 <20 <50 <100 <20 <50 <100 <20 <50 <100 <20 <50 <100
Developing Countries Economies in Transition OECD Countries World totalGtCO2-eq/yr
Emission reductions based on the end-use of energy
How can emissions be reduced?Energy Supply
Key mitigation technologies andpractices currently commerciallyavailable
• Efficiency
• Fuel switching
• Nuclear power
• Renewable (hydropower, solar, wind, geothermal and bioenergy)
• Combined heat and power
• Early applications of CO2 capture and storage (CCS)
Key mitigation technologies andpractices projected to becommercialised before 2030
• CCS for gas
• Biomass and coal-fired electricity generating facilities
• Advanced renewables (tidal and wave energy, concentrating solar, solar PV)
How can emissions be reduced?Transport
Key mitigation technologies and practices currently commercially available
• More fuel efficient vehicles
• Hybrid vehicles
• Biofuels
• Rail and public transport systems
• Cycling, walking
• Land-use planning
Key mitigation technologies and practices projected to be commercialized before 2030
• Second generation biofuels
• Higher efficiency aircraft
• Advanced electric and hybrid vehicles with more powerful and reliable batteries
How can emissions be reduced?Industry
Key mitigation technologies and practices projected to be commercialized before 2030
•Advanced energy efficiency
•CCS for cement, ammonia, and iron manufacture
•Inert electrodes for aluminum manufacture
Key mitigation technologies and practices currently commercially available
•More efficient electrical equipment
•Heat and power recovery
•Material recycling
•Control of non-CO2 gas emissions
How can emissions be reduced?Buildings
Key mitigation technologies and practices currently commercially available
• Efficient lighting
• Efficient appliances and air-conditioners
• Improved insulation
• Solar heating and cooling
• Alternatives for fluorinated gases in insulation and appliances
Key mitigation technologies and practices projected to be commercialized before 2030
• Integrated design of commercial buildings including technologies, such as intelligent meters that provide feedback and control
• Solar PV integrated in buildings
How can emissions be reduced?Agriculture
Key mitigation technologies and practices currently commercially available
• Improved land management
• Restoration of cultivated peat soils and degraded land
• Improved rice cultivation
• Improved livestock and manure management
• Improved N-fertiliser application (+ bioenergy crops)
Key mitigation technologies and practices projected to becommercialised before 2030
• Improvement of crop yields
How can emissions be reduced?Forestry
Key mitigation technologies andpractices currently commerciallyavailable
• Afforestation, reforestation
• Forest management
• Reduced deforestation
• Harvested wood product management (+ bioenergy crops)
Key mitigation technologies and practices projected to be commercialised before 2030
• Tree species improvement
• Improved remote sensing technologies for mapping, land use change and carbon sequestration potential
Key mitigation technologies andpractices currently commerciallyavailable
• Consumers change their behaviour through their choice of lifestyle options
• Staff incentives encourage a change in practices in the workplace
• Car owners employ a more fuel-efficient way of driving; ‘eco-driving’, by accelerating and braking less strongly.
• Reduce car use by shifting to other modes of transport.
How can emissions be reduced?Changes in lifestyle & behaviour
An effective carbon-price signal could realise significant mitigation potential in all sectors
• Policies such as regulation, restricting the quantity of emissions produced and economic instruments such as a carbon tax or allocating tradable emission permits make it costly to emit greenhouse gases
• The resulting extra costs for industries and consumers could encourage investment in non-carbon based technologies
• To obtain stabilisation at around 550ppm (parts per million), CO2
equivalent carbon prices should reach US$20-80 per tCO2 eq by 2030
• At these prices, large shifts of investments into low carbon technologies can be expected
What are the macro-economic costs in 2030?
• The financial impact - even if tough measures are put in place to reduce emissions.
• For the most severe path to reach stabilisation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and thus to stablise global temperature, the effect on the world economy would be less than 3% in 2030. A loss of 3% of GDP means a country would be equally well off one year later.
Trajectories towards stabilisation levels
(ppm CO 2-eq)
MedianGDP reduction 1
(%)
Range of GDP reduction 2
(%)
Reduction of average annual GDP growth rates 3
(percentage points)
590-710 0.2 -0.6 – 1.2 <0.06
535-590 0.6 0.2 – 2.5 <0.1
445-5354 Not available <3 <0.12
[1] This is global GDP based market exchange rates.[2] The median and the 10th and 90th percentile range of the analyzed data are given.[3] The calculation of the reduction of the annual growth rate is based on the average reduction during the period till 2030 that would result in the indicated GDP decrease in 2030.[4] The number of studies that report GDP results is relatively small and they generally use low baselines.
There are also co-benefits of mitigation
• Many climate change mitigation measures lead to less air pollution. The resulting health benefits may offset some of the mitigation costs.
• Mitigation can also be positive for: energy security, improving the balance of trade, providing rural areas with modern energy services and sustainable agriculture and employment.
A1
A2B
C
D
E
Stabilising global mean temperature requires a sta bilisation ofgreenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere.
The lower the aspired temperatureincrease, the lower theconcentration stabilisation level
0
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10
300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
Equ
ilibr
ium
glo
bal m
ean
tem
pera
ture
incr
ease
ove
r pr
e-in
dust
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°C)
GHG concentration stabilization level (ppmv CO2 –eq)
-5
0
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30
35
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Wor
ld C
O2
Em
issi
ons
(GtC
)
The lower the stabilisation level, the earlier glob al CO2emissions have to peak
• The lower the target stabilisation level limit, the earlier global emissions have to peak.
• Limiting increase to 3.2 – 4°C requires emissions to peak within the next 55 years.
• Limiting increase to 2.8 – 3.2°C requires global emissions to peak within 25 years.
• Limiting global mean temperature increases to 2 – 2.4°C above pre-industrial levels requires global emissions to peak within 15 years and then fall to about 50 to 85% of current levels by 2050.
E: 850-1130 ppm CO2-eq
D: 710-850 ppm CO2-eq
C: 590-710 ppm CO2-eq
B: 535-590 ppm CO2-eq
A2: 490-535 ppm CO2-eq
A1: 445-490 ppm CO2-eq
Stabilisation targets:
Multigas and CO2 only studies combined
Investments
• Energy infrastructure investment decisions (20 trillion US$ till 2030) will have long term impacts on GHG emissions
• The widespread diffusion of low-carbon technologies may take many decades, even if early investments in these technologies are made attractive
The importance of technology policies
• The lower the stabilisation levels, the earlier global CO2 emissions haveto peak
• Government support is important for effective technology development, innovation and deployment
• BUT, government funding for most energy research programmes has been declining for nearly two decades; now about half of 1980 level
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The report of IPCC Working Group III is available a t www.mnp.nl/ipcc