CLIMATE AND NERGY Global Trade Trends: Implications for South African Exporters Catherine Grant MAKOKERA, Senior Associate at Tutwa Consulting 28 OCTOBER 2015 | Durban, South Africa KZN Export Week
CLIMATE AND NERGY
Global Trade Trends: Implications for South African Exporters
Catherine Grant MAKOKERA, Senior Associate at Tutwa Consulting
28 OCTOBER 2015 | Durban, South Africa
KZN Export Week
CLIMATE AND NERGY
- Multilateral trade rules – ongoing relevance of WTO
- Global trends in regional trade integration
- Indian Ocean linkages
- Africa’s Diversified Partnerships:- Looking East - China- BRICS- Middle East as bridge between Africa and Asia- Trading amongst ourselves
Outline
CLIMATE AND NERGY
• Rules of the multilateral trading system still matter• Number of countries joining WTO increasing• Dispute settlement mechanism strong
• Unlikely to be a new round of negotiations in near future
• But important developments likely without a round
• WTO Ministerial Conference in December 2015 in Kenya• Possibility that Trade Facilitation Agreement will enter into force – now over 50
ratifications (including Botswana and Mauritius) – potential to increase global exports by $1 trillion per annum (2.7%)
• Possible package for least developed countries and maybe some progress on agriculture issues
World Trade Organisation
CLIMATE AND NERGY
Tripartite Free Trade Area
Continental Free Trade Area
Trans-Pacific Partnership
Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment
Partnership
Regional Comprehensive Economic
Partnership
Regional Trade Integration: Africa and Beyond
CLIMATE AND NERGY
Tripartite Free Trade Area
Continental Free Trade Area
Trans-Pacific Partnership
Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment
Partnership
Regional Comprehensive Economic
Partnership
Regional Trade Integration: Africa and Beyond
CLIMATE AND NERGYTrends in Regional Trade Integration
CLIMATE AND NERGY
• Major shipping route• Half the world’s container ships – One-third of bulk cargo• Two-thirds of all oil shipments
• Geo-politically strategic
• Blue economy development• Fisheries and Aquaculture• Renewable Ocean Energy• Seaport and Shipping• Seabed Exploration and Minerals
Indian Ocean Linkages
CLIMATE AND NERGYIndian Ocean Rim Association
CLIMATE AND NERGY
• Traditional partners remain important especially for a more diversified basket of exports – Europe, US and Japan (very much the same for Middle Eastern countries)
• China is undoubtedly the single most important country right now• Reinforcing reliance on commodities?• Impact of slow-down?• Concerns about investments in Africa?
• After the financial crisis there was a deliberate “Look East” that continues
Africa’s Diversified Partnerships: Look East
CLIMATE AND NERGY
• Trade between BRICS is a series of bilateral interactions – complicated by customs unions
• Free trade area unlikely in the short term
• New Development Bank established• Initial focus on infrastructure
• Opportunities for increasing exports in value added products• Agro-processing• “Factory India”• Services
Africa’s Diversified Partnerships: BRICS
CLIMATE AND NERGY
• Trade with Middle East remains low but increasing potential• E.g. 20% increase in shipping of fresh produce in last year from Southern
Africa to ME
• Beyond goods trade - other linkages important• Technology transfer e.g. energy• Investment e.g. agriculture• Trade in services e.g. airlines• Financial and corporate ties e.g. hub for multinational corporations
Africa’s Diversified Partnerships: Middle East
CLIMATE AND NERGY
• Low levels of intra-African trade – 12%
• Development priorities include • Integration• Industrialisation• Infrastructure
• Entering a potentially new era where it will become increasingly easier to move goods, capital, people around continent
Africa’s Diversified Partnerships: Trading Amongst Ourselves
CLIMATE AND NERGY
• Need increased interaction on global trends between government and exporters
• Have we adapted our understanding of markets since financial crisis?• Share information on capacities, industry structures, partnerships,
innovations• Support organised business structures including export councils and industry
associations• Use incentives and services provided by government
Implications for South African Exporters