CLIMATE ANALYSIS FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF VULNERABILITY TO DESERTIFICATION IN MEDITERRANEAN ENVIRONMENT R. Magno, A. Crisci, L. Genesio –Ibimet CNR Bologna.

CLIMATE ANALYSIS FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF VULNERABILITY TO

DESERTIFICATION IN MEDITERRANEAN ENVIRONMENT

R. Magno, A. Crisci, L. Genesio –Ibimet CNR

Bologna (Italy) 14-17 June 2005

WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE

“Procedures and guidance of appropriate zoning methodologies and promotion of their application”

DESERTIFICATON

The aims of the UNCCD and the National Action Plans are:

• to assess areas subjected to a desertification risk, adopting methodologies repeatable in several socio-geographical context

• to provide tools for the public authority to prevent and mitigate such phenomenon, in order to ensure a sustainable land planning

• monitoring the evolution of the land degradation processes

Desertification is “land degradation(*) in arid, semiarid and dry sub-humid areas due to various factors, including climatic variations and human activities” (UNCCD)



(*)Land degradation = loss of soil productivity

DISMED and DESERTNET Projects

The international and inter-regional DISMED and DESERTNET-Interreg IIIB MEDOCC projects have been developed on the basis of the climatic analysis to identify the desertification sensitive areas, to produce thematic maps and to implement the approved methodology of ESAs (MEDALUS Project), that analyses the various components of the land degradation process



The large number of climatic, biological, pedological and socio-economical indicators that can be used in the ESAs (Environmental Sensitive Areas to desertification) methodology make it versatile and applicable to the various geographical context

- To suggest a proper methodology for the definition of the hydrological balance esteem, in terms of desertification and land degradation due to the climate factors at different scale (from regional to local)

- Implementation of the climate analysis methods at regional level (Mediterranean basin) and at local level (Tuscany) in order to develop a cartography of the desertification sensitivity (Aridity index)

- Integration of the climate analysis with vegetation, soil and human pressure indices to define critical areas for the Tuscany region

THE CONTRIBUTION OF IBIMET-CNR





CLIMATIC ANALYSIS

Parameters: - Rainfall (daily and monthly data)

- Min, max and mean temperature (daily and monthly data)

- ETP Thornthwaite “corrected” (monthly data)

Period of analysis: - 1961/1990 (reference 30 years for IPCC-WMO)

- 1991/2000 (current period) (Tuscany)

Spatialization of meteorological data: analysis of several methods

Final products: - Maps of AI (Aridity Index)

- Percentage of AI variation (Tuscany)

- SPI Standardized Precipitation Index (Tuscany)

Time scale: - Year

- Season

- Month

METEOROLOGICAL INDICATORS MONITORING

Hence the need to have widespread, accurate and continuous monitoring of temperature, rainfall and all phenomena related to them.

MONITORING

METEOROLOGICAL GAUGES DATA

REMOTE SENSING OBSERVATIONS(homogeneous distribution)

(scattered and not continuous)

- GEOSTATISTICS methods of climatic parameters estimation- Data availability on a long period

but





Spatialization of climatic data: RMSE analysis

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

Febbraio Aprile Luglio Ottobre

Mese

RM

SE

Cokriging

Kriging

Mreg-Kres

GWR

Monthly rainfall

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

FebbraioAprileLuglioOttobre

Mese

RM

SE

(°C)

Cokriging

Kriging

Mreg-Kres

GWR

Monthly max temperatureMonthly min temperature

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Febbraio Aprile Luglio OttobreMese

RM

SE

Cokriging

Kriging

Mreg-Kres

GWR

Rainfall data: random properties of spatial variability

Thermometric data: substantially affected by geographic characteristics of the area

RAINFALL

TEMPERATURE

Available stations

Available stations

360 + 120 FILES

PERIOD 1961-90 1991-00

360 + 120 FILES

PERIOD 1961-90 1991-00

CLIMATIC DATA SPATIALIZATION

COKRIGING

MULTIREGRESSIVE + KRIGING OF RESIDUALS

ETP Thornthwaite

12*30 + 12*10 RASTER MAPS

TEMP.


RAINFALL

ETP


ARIDITY INDEX

2 MAPS (61-90; 91-00)

CLIMATIC DATABASE

PENMAN CORRECTION

Penman

Tthornthwaite

Underestimate in particularly dry areas



Mean Yearly Temperature: 1961-1990 period for the Mediterranean area

Mean Yearly Precipitation: 1961-1990 period for the Mediterranean area



Mean Yearly Evapotranspiration: 1961-1990 period for the Mediterranean area





Mean Yearly Aridity Index: 1961-1990 period for the Mediterranean area



Using DISMED approach, DESERTNET Project emphasize the dynamic feature of the climate analysis

Following the ESAs methodology, other specific aspects of desertification process on the Tuscany region are taken in to account (vegetation, soil, land management, human pressure)

SAME APPROACH - DIFFERENT SCALE

THE ARIDITY INDEX ANALYSIS

Aridity can affect a region during a specific period, season or even all over the year

TIME SCALE

SEASON

YEAR

For a good land management is important to know when the critical period occurs

The annual analysis of more then 100 gauges in Tuscany did not show any areas affected by the aridity.But in fact, a large part of the region has turned out to be semi-arid or sub-humid dry in spring and summer seasons.



DESERTNET Project: the TUSCANY case



At the annual level the low ETP and the autumn and winter rainfall mitigate the aridity

ANNUAL ARIDITY INDEX

This phenomenon can greatly affect the agricultural activities and the yield production

SPRING ARIDITY INDEX

SUMMER ARIDITY INDEX

At the seasonal level, particularly in spring and summer periods, a large portion of Tuscany suffers from a strong aridity (0.2-0.5 is the range of semi-arid zones in the UNEP classification)



Positive value = increasing of aridity in the last 10 years

Negative value = decreasing of aridity in the last 10 years

DINAMIC ANALYSIS OF ARIDITY INDEX

100AI

AIAIvar AI %0091

00919061

DROUGHT IN TUSCANY: the SPI

Agricultural drought events

Not unusual during hottest season

In the last decade increase in winter



Winter drought events are not limited in the arid areas, but are diffused in most of the Tuscany region



WINTER SPI



SPI MAPS% of drought events frequency % of drought events frequency variation

100frequency

frequencyfrequency freq. drought % Var.

9061

90610091

ESAI = (CQI * SQI * VQI * MQI * HPI)1/5

ESAI - Environmental Sensitive Areas Index

CQI

VQI

SQI

MQI

HPI



VULNERABILITY TO DESERTIFICATION: OVERLAP OF CRITICAL AREAS

ESAI

Turist density - year 2000

Portata del fiume Arno a Subbiano

Sibolla lake

Annual net balance of CO2



CQI - Climatic Quality Index

CQI = (AI61-90 * % AI61-00 Var. * Drought Freq.61-90 * % Drought Freq 00-61 Var. )1/4



VQI - Vegetation Quality Index

VQI = (Erosion protection * Drought resistance * Land cover * Fire risk)1/4

Rischio strutturale di incendio

Copertura da NDVI (TM)



MQI - Management Quality Index

MQI = (Protection policies * Land management)1/2

Environmental policy = (National parks * Regional parks * Directive Habitat 92/43-Bioitaly)1/3

Land management = ((var % SAU/municipal area) * (SAU bio/SAU) * (SAU irrigated/SAU) * (grass-pasture/SAU) * (UBA/SAU))1/5



HPI – Human Pressure Index

HPI = (Population density 2001 * % of

population density variation2001-1961 *

Tourist density2001 * % Tourist

density variation2001-1993)1/4



CONCLUSIONS

• The results of the two DISMED and DESERTNET Project show that the climate analysis and its dynamic variation are of great importance for defining the desertification vulnerability at different scales

• Sensitive areas are affected by a various critical factors and elements that determine the loss of productivity of the soil; but not necessarily the same level of vulnerability is due to the overlap of the same critical factors

• Nevertheless in areas affected by negative climate conditions human pressure accelerate land degradation processes

• Is possible to compare the map of desertification vulnerability with maps of other types of environmental problems

CLIMATE ANALYSIS FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF VULNERABILITY TO DESERTIFICATION IN MEDITERRANEAN ENVIRONMENT R. Magno, A. Crisci, L. Genesio –Ibimet CNR Bologna.

Documents

climatic analysis parameters

climate analysis methods

climatic variations

desertification methodology

agriculture bologna

terms of desertification

desertification risk

large number of climatic