Climate Adaptation in the Delaware Estuary: Results from the Climate Ready Estuaries Pilot CCAC March 17, 2011 Danielle Kreeger Partnership for the Delaware.

Climate Adaptation in the Delaware Estuary: Results from the Climate Ready Estuaries Pilot

CCACMarch 17, 2011

Danielle KreegerPartnership for the Delaware Estuary

http://www.delawareestuary.org/science_projects_climate_ready_products.asp

How do we even begin to plan for climate change in a system as large and complex as the Delaware Estuary?

PDE Climate Ready Pilot

How will climate change in the Delaware Estuary?

How will changes impact key resources?

What actions are recommended to make these resources more resilient?

What if we don’t take action?

3 case studies

How Will Climate Change?Temperatures More in summer than in winter Locked in for next 30 years

Precipitation More in winter than in summer More heavy events

Sea Level 0.6 - 1.5 m by 2100 (or more) local rates >> global

Chester Creek, PA October 1, 2010

Salinity

Storms ?

Growing Season

as per Dr. Ray Najjar

Tidal Marshes Bivalve Shellfish

Drinking Water

Case Studies

Future Status

Vulnerabilityand Options

Rankings

Recommendations

Delaware Estuary Pilot

A Signature Trait of SystemNear Contiguous BandDiverse: Freshwater Tidal Marshes

Brackish Marshes Salt Marshes

Nature’s BenefitsFlood ProtectionWater QualityFish and WildlifeNatural AreasCarbon Sequestration

Tidal Wetlands – Why?

Tidal Wetland VulnerabilityFreshwater Tidal Marshes

• Salinity Rise• Barriers to Landward Migration• Others: Tidal Range, Seasonal Drying/Wetting

Salt Marshes

• Sea Level Rise• Storms and Wind Wave Erosion• Barriers to Landward Migration• Others: Seasonal Wetting/Drying, Invasives

Tidal WetlandsVulnerability Survey & Results

Table 3-3. Comparison of the effectiveness and feasibility of various potential adaptation options for addressing the main vulnerability of tidal freshwater we Table 3-3. Comparison of the effectiveness and feasibility of various potential adaptation options for addressing the main vulnerability of tidal freshwater wetlands and brackish/saltwater wetlands exposed to changing sea level, salinity, precipitation/storms, and carbon dioxide levels by 2100 in the Delaware Estuary. tlands and brackish/saltwater wetlands exposed to changing sea level, salinity, precipitation/storms, and carbon dioxide levels by 2100 in the Delaware Estuary.

Tidal Fresh Tidal Salt/Brackish

Med-High Med-HighMed-Low LowMed-Low Med-LowMed-Low Med-HighMed-Low Med-Low

High HighestMed-High Highest

High HighestHigh Highest

Med-High High Med-High High Med-High Med-High

High HighestHigh Highest

Highest Med-HighHighest Med-High

High Med-LowHighest Med-Low

Med-High Med-LowMed-Low Med-Low

Med-High Med-LowMed-High Med-LowMed-Low Med-LowMed-Low Med-LowMed-High Med-LowMed-High Med-LowMed-High Med-High

Low LowLow Low

Sea Level Rise

Salinity Range Increase

Precipitation & Storms

Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

Productivity Desiccation, flooding or erosionSediment supply Physical impacts by wind, waves and surge

Shifts in Community Species Composition Productivity

Change in Habitat Support Productivity Invasive Species

Shifts in Community Species Composition Salt exposure/stress events Change in Habitat Support

Rate of Channel Scour Storm surge susceptibilitySeaward edge erosion

Shifts in Community Species Composition Salt Water Intrusion to Fresh Water Habitats Salt exposure/stress event

Shifts in Community Species Composition Ability of Accretion Rate to Equal RSLR Rate Ability for Landward Migration Change of Marsh Area Increased Tidal Range (Upper River)Ratio of shoreline edge to marsh area

Shifts in Community Species Composition Desiccation of Marsh Sediments Change in Habitat Support Productivity Invasive Species

Temperature Change

Ranking Vulnerability

1Sea Level Rise Effects on Brackish/Saltwater Wetlands

2Salinity Effects on Freshwater Tidal Wetlands

3Sea Level Rise Effects on Freshwater Tidal Wetlands

4Precipitation and Storm Effects on Freshwater Tidal Wetlands

5Precipitation and Storm Effects on Brackish/Saltwater Wetlands

The Top Five….

Tidal Wetlands – Adaptation Options

• Protection of Natural Buffers• Structure Setbacks• Living Shorelines• Strategic Retreat • Managing Water Flows (salinity)• Managing Sediments

Needs

• Geospatial Approach • Regional Sediment Budget Linked to Tidal Wetland Ecosystem Model• LIDAR, Land Use, Modeling and Climate Monitoring Data• Assessment Methods to Prioritize Adaptation Tactics

Wetland Tough Choices• Where will they be converted

to open water?• Where can we save them ?• Where is strategic retreat the best option?

Next Generation Living ShorelinesSoft Armoring With Natural Communities

May June September

2000

2000 2100

>25% Loss of tidal wetlands! What If We Don’t Take Action?What If We Don’t Take Action?

• Conversion of >40,000 ha Uplands to Wetlands• Conversion of >100,000 ha Wetlands to Water• Loss of Services >> Acreage Losses

Tidal Marshes Bivalve Shellfish

Drinking Water

Case Studies

Future Status

Vulnerabilityand Options

Rankings

Recommendations

Delaware Estuary Pilot

Bivalves of the Delaware

DRBC

Crassostrea virginica

Elliptio complanata

Geukensia demissa

11 Other Species of Freshwater Unionid Mussels

Mya arenaria

Rangia cuneata

Corbicula fluminea

Mytilus edulis

Ensis directus

Mercenaria mercenaria

CTUIR Freshwater Mussel Project

Nature’s BenefitsNature’s BenefitsBivalve Shellfish are Bivalve Shellfish are

“Ecosystem Engineers“Ecosystem Engineers”

Kreeger

Oyster ReefsOyster Reefs

Mussel BedsMussel Beds

StartStart

8 adult mussels8 adult musselsNo musselsNo mussels

Biofiltration PotentialBiofiltration Potential

Slide from Dick Neves, VA Tech

LaterLater8 adult mussels8 adult musselsNo musselsNo mussels

Slide from Dick Neves, VA Tech

Biofiltration PotentialBiofiltration Potential

Bivalves – IssuesFreshwater Mussels are Imperiled

See posters, Thomas et al., Kreeger et al.

Scientific Name Scientific Name DE NJ PAALASMIDONTA HETERODON DWARF WEDGEMUSSEL Endangered Endangered Critically Imperiled

ALASMIDONTA UNDULATA TRIANGLE FLOATER Extirpated ? Threatened Vulnerable

ALASMIDONTA VARICOSA BROOK FLOATER Endangered Endangered Imperiled

ANODONTA IMPLICATA ALEWIFE FLOATER Extremely Rare no data Extirpated ?

ELLIPTIO COMPLANATA EASTERN ELLIPTIO common common Secure

LAMPSILIS CARIOSA YELLOW LAMPMUSSEL Endangered Threatened Vulnerable

LAMPSILIS RADIATA EASTERN LAMPMUSSEL Endangered Threatened Imperiled

LASMIGONA SUBVIRIDIS GREEN FLOATER no data Endangered Imperiled

LEPTODEA OCHRACEA TIDEWATER MUCKET Endangered Threatened Extirpated ?

LIGUMIA NASUTA EASTERN PONDMUSSEL Endangered Threatened Critically Imperiled

MARGARITIFERA MARGARITIFERA EASTERN PEARLSHELL no data no data Imperiled

PYGANODON CATARACTA EASTERN FLOATER no data no data Vulnerable

STROPHITUS UNDULATUS SQUAWFOOT Extremely Rare Species of Concern Apparently Secure

State Conservation Status

Patchy, Impaired

Elliptio complanata

Rare

Strophitus undulatus

Extirpated

Alasmidonta heterodon

Bivalve Projections – FW MusselsBivalve Projections – FW MusselsShifting Species Ranges, But No DispersalShifting Species Ranges, But No Dispersal

Bivalves – Issues

Oyster Disease and Salinity

www.livingclassrooms.org/lbo/dermo/oyster2.jpg

Susan Ford, Rutgers HSRL

Rutgers HSRL

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3 5 7

Year

Num

ber

per

Bus

hel

Oyster Spat Mean Oyster Mean Spat

1758 Longer Growing Season

Intertidal Niche Expansion?

To

day

2030

2060

Point of No Return

No HelpWith Help

2 Recruitment Events

Historical data from Rutgers Haskin Shellfish Laboratory

Bivalve Projections – OystersBivalve Projections – OystersCan they be maintained until they might see better conditions?

Bivalve Projections – Ribbed MusselsBivalve Projections – Ribbed MusselsLosing Marsh HabitatLosing Marsh Habitat

Freshwater Mussels: imperiled, complicated live history, cannot tolerate salinity

Oysters: disease and salinity

Ribbed Mussels: losing marsh habitat

Impacts Depend on Species and Location

Options for Making Shellfish More ResilientOptions for Making Shellfish More Resilient

Shellplanting for OystersShellplanting for OystersPropagate MusselsPropagate Mussels

Riparian Riparian RestorationRestoration

Fish Passage Fish Passage RestorationRestoration

Water Quality & Water Quality & Flow ManagementFlow Management

•

Monitoring & Monitoring & ResearchResearch

Living ShorelinesLiving Shorelines

Table 5-12. Top five adaptation options to assist bivalve mollusks in adapting to climate change in the Delaware watershed, ranked by the Bivalve Work Group.

Ranking Adaptation Tactic 1 Plant Shell for Oysters

2 Propagate all Bivalves and Seed New Reefs/Beds

3 Restore Riparian Buffers for Freshwater Mussels

4 Manage Water Flow to Minimize Effects of Flooding on Freshwater Mussels and Salinity on Oysters and Freshwater Tidal Bivalves

5 Maintain Water Quality for all Bivalves

What Actions Are What Actions Are Recommended for Recommended for Shellfish?Shellfish?

What if We Don’t Act?What if We Don’t Act? Natural Capital at Risk

Tidal Marshes Bivalve Shellfish

Case Studies

Drinking Water

Future Status

Vulnerabilityand Options

Rankings

Recommendations

Delaware Estuary Pilot

Drinking Water - Why?

• Drinking water for >16 million • Philadelphia – 1.4 million • New York City

Drinking Water Vulnerabilities

Effects on Drinking Water

• Degraded source water quality

• Salinity Intrusion

• Power Outages

• Customer Supply Issues

• Erosion of infrastructure

• Obsolete Supply Systems

• In direct path of flooding, storm surges, and sea level rise

Drinking Water Tough Questions

• How can we maintain low salinity in the upper estuary?

• Will more reservoirs be needed and where?

• Where should infrastructure be protected?

Drinking Water – Adaptation Options

• Infrastructure protection• Resilient Materials , Modern Upgrades

• Minimize water demand• Water Efficiency, BMP’s

• New treatment & distribution system• Able to with-stand inundation

• Prevent increased stormwater runoff

• Protect source water with forests & buffers

• Disinfection of wastewater

Website slides are from the Delaware Shorebird Project and the Horseshoe Crab Conservation Network

Many Other Issues

•DredgingDredging

•Ecological Ecological FlowsFlows

•WithdrawalsWithdrawals•Wind FarmsWind Farms

•DevelopmentDevelopment

•Marcellus Marcellus ShaleShale

•Emerging PollutantsEmerging Pollutants

•Spills, NRDASpills, NRDA

•Land Use Land Use ChangeChange

Climate Change + Other Changes

Added Complexity

The Big Wild Card Storms

Overall ImpactsAs expected, sea level rise,

flooding and precipitation effects are major concerns across all case studies

However, vulnerability to salinity rise in the Delaware Estuary is somewhat unique, and especially notable because this system has the world’s largest freshwater tidal prism.

Take Home Messages• Not all changes to natural resources will be damaging, but there will be many more losers than winners

• Need a Paradigm Shift: Plan and “restore” for the future rather than the past, dynamic rather than static conditions

• Adaptation will require investment to protect lives and livelihoods

• Proactive investment today will save money in the long term due to compounding of ecosystem services

- End -

Delaware Estuary Pilot