Click to edit Master title style Shenggen Fan, January 2012 Food Security in Asia within a Global context Shenggen Fan Director General | International.

Click to edit Master title style

Shenggen Fan, January 2012

Food Security in Asia within a Global contextShenggen FanDirector General | International Food Policy Research Institute

Asia Food Security Situation Roundtable Washington, DC | January 9 2012



Key messages

Asian food security is interconnected with global food security

Emerging trends threaten Asian and global food security

Policies and investments must integrate Asia to the global food system

Green economy must not be achieved at the cost of hunger, poverty, and malnutrition reduction



Asia accounts for largest share of world’s hungry people

Source: FAO 2010

Number of hungry by region, 2010

62%



GHI components:• Proportion of undernourished• Prevalence of underweight in children• Under-five mortality rate

Source: von Grebmer et al. 2011

15 countries in Asia have serious/alarming levels of hunger (2011 GHI)



Micronutrient deficiencies remain pervasive, esp. in Asia

Iron deficiency anemia • Africa and South Asia have the highest prevalence

• In some parts of India, 90% of girls suffer from this deficiency

Vitamin A deficiency• 163 mil. are vitamin A deficient in developing countries

• 44.4% of children in South Asia suffer from this deficiency

Iodine deficiency• 1.7 bil. people worldwide are affected by iodine deficiency,

and 1.3 bil. of them are in Asia

Source: UNSCN 6th Report and Bharati et al. 2009



South Asia is a hotspot of child undernutrition

Prevalence of stunting in children under-5, 2003-08

Prevalence of underweight in children under-5, 2003-08

Source: UNICEF 2009



Asia plays an important role in global food markets

Cereals

Fruit

Meat

Oilcrops

Pulses

Rice

Sugarcane

Vegetables

Wheat

0 50 100

Developing South and East Asia’s share of global production and consumption (%)

Consumption Production

Source: FAO 2011

Export from Africa Asia Europe N. America M. East

Billon $

Europe 17.4 22.3 415.5 21.4 12.6

Asia 12.6 106.9 31.5 26.4 17.2

C. & S. America 9.3 28.2 16.2 17.5 7.9

N. America 8.1 51.8 44.2 69.1 6.4

CIS 2.3 4.5 7.8 0.5 3.1

Source: Choi 2010



Asian countries: increasing role in foreign direct investment

FDI flows to and from emerging countries, US$ billions

Source: UNCTAD 2009

“South-South” FDI: 1/3 of all FDI to developing countries (est.)

Asian countries provide cushion for developing countries during recent crisis

Often promote technologies and business practices more suitable for developing country markets



Emerging trends affecting Asian and global food security

Changing population and demographic trends

Rising energy prices

Land and water constraints

Climate change

Rising rural labor shortage / costs

Large gender inequality



Changing population and demographic trends

1970

1976

1982

1988

1994

2000

2006

2012

2018

2024

2030

2036

2042

2048

0

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

5000000

Rural

Urban

Num

ber

of p

eopl

e (b

illio

n)

Urban popu-lation pro-

jected to ex-ceed rural

in 2028

Developing South and East Asia’s rural and urban population

Larger and more urban population = increased demand for more and better food

Source: World Bank 2011



High land and water constraints

Source: Bai et al. 2007 (LADA, FAO/ISRIC)

Land degradation, 1981-2003

Areas of physical and economic water scarcity, 2007

Source: IWMI 2007



Climate change impacts on agriculture

ASIA

Crop Change in Production (%)

Rice

Irrigated -10.47

Rainfed 0.66

Maize

Irrigated -5.54

Rainfed 1.71

Wheat

Irrigated -13.50

Rainfed -1.91

Soybeans

Irrigated -6.73

Rainfed 8.58

Source: IFPRI 2011

With 1 meter

rise (‘000 ha)

With 3 meter

rise (‘000 ha)

Myanmar 295 1,214

Thailand 199 796

Cambodia 35 118

Vietnam 2,513 4,281

30% of Vietnam’s rice area

Source: Nelson 2010



Rising rural labor shortage / costs

Wages are rising rapidly in emerging economies

Rural labor is scarce due to rural-urban shifts

Rising rural labor costs e.g. in China and India = higher cost of production = less production

Rising nominal minimum wage across China



Large gender inequality in agriculture

Women make up large share of ag. workforce• e.g. 51% in Bangladesh and 49% in Vietnam

But have less access to resources and services

Closing gender gap in agriculture (FAO 2011):

• Increases ag. production by 2.5–4%• Reduces number of undernourished people by

12–17%



Increase investment in agric. R&D, rural infrastructure, and productive social safety nets

Leverage smallholder agriculture for broad development outcomes• hunger and poverty reduction• nutrition and health• gender equity • low carbon economy

Support transparent, fair, and open trade

Promote regional strategic food reserves

Towards an integrated food security agenda



Green economy is a must, but food security should not be undermined

Agriculture can play a key role in green economy through

natural resources, food production, and economic linkages

Green economy

Environmentally sustainable

growth

Food security

Poverty reduction

Equitable distribution

=

Rio +20: UN Conference on Sustainable

Development 2012



Support region- and country-led strategies through capacity strengthening and collaborative research

Facilitate regional dialogues, and knowledge, information and data sharing

Support mutual learning of development experiences among Asian countries and countries in other regions

IFPRI’s agenda in the region

Click to edit Master title style Shenggen Fan, January 2012 Food Security in Asia within a Global context Shenggen Fan Director General | International.

Documents

asia source

south asia

ghi slide

better food source

global food markets

global food security

asia accounts

billions source