Click to edit Master subtitle style Drivers of Energy Future in the Mekong Region: Prospective Development Paths Jyrki Luukkanen
Click to edit Master subtitle style Drivers of Energy Future in the Mekong Region: Prospective Development Paths Jyrki Luukkanen.
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Click to edit Master subtitle style
Drivers of Energy Future in the Mekong Region: Prospective Development Paths
Jyrki Luukkanen
16.2.2009
Contents
Drivers behind the energy use increase in the Mekong region
Solutions?
16.2.2009
Drivers behind the energy use increase in Mekong region
Industrialisation The economic structure is changing from agricultural
production to industrial production Energy use per GDP grows with industrialisation
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Lao GDP (million Kip at 1990 prices)
Services
Industry
Agriculture
16.2.2009
Industrialization Globalization with transfer of
heavy and polluting industry to developing countries
Will Laos be the battery for Mekong Region and global provider of minerals and metals
Will Cambodia be garment provider
16.2.2009
Urbanisation Energy consumption structure will change Larger share of commercial, often fossil based
energy Increased education among younger
population drives urbanisation Increased mobility Shift to market economy: ”Households are more
reliant on self-employment and wage labour and less reliant on agriculture and common property resources (CPR), including fisheries and forests (MOPS Cambodia, WB)”
Urbanisation Energy consumption structure will change Larger share of commercial, often fossil based energy Increased education among younger population drives urbanisation Increased mobility Shift to market economy: ”Households are more reliant on self-employment and wage labour and less reliant on agriculture and common property
resources (CPR), including fisheries and forests (MOPS Cambodia, WB)”
16.2.2009
Transport energy
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001
MtonTransport/Total energy use
Japan
USA
EU15
Thailand
%
16.2.2009
Shift to fossil energy
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1971 1980 1990 2001
Mtoe
Energy use in Thailand
Renewable
Hydro
Nuclear
Oil
Natural gas
Coal
16.2.2009
Solutions? Energy saving – reduction of energy end
use Improved stoves Energy saving lamps More efficient cooling systems Improved house construction Urban planning Improved energy technology
16.2.2009
Solutions? Renewable energy
Solar, biomass, wind, hydro In many cases the large investment cost is a
problem Should the developing country people reduce
CO2 when we are not ready to reduce?
16.2.2009
Solutions? (cont.) Democracy
Basis for sustainable development Incorporation of different groups in decision
making Ownership of energy development
No one best solution Integrated approach
Dimensions of sustainability: Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, Political and Values
16.2.2009
Finnish development aid policy?
Aid projects should not mess the local market situation
Aid should be based on coherent strategy determined by the local government
Aid should combine energy projects with other livelihood improvement projects
Aid should take into account the long term perspective (poverty reduction) and short term income generation perspective to be sustainable
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