Clean Energy and Climate Change

Clean Energy and Climate Change

Chris Mottershead

integrated response to key drivers

security of energysupply

changes to our environment

economic growth and social progress

carbon constraint

1990 2050

fossil fuel base

carb

on

em

issi

on

s

7Gtc/year

• there are many uncertainties, and science is always provisional• precautionary action to limit global temperature changes to around 2oC • means limiting atmospheric concentrations of CO2 to 500-550ppm• and therefore aiming for 7Gtc/year of emissions by 2050

reducing emission intensity

1990 2050

reduction in carbon intensity

(environmental incentives)

fossil fuel base

carb

on

em

issi

on

s

technology enabled breakthroughs

1990 2050

reduction in carbon intensity

(environmental incentives)

technology enabled breakthroughs

(economic growth incentives)

fossil fuel base

carb

on

em

issi

on

s

policy regimes

1990 2050

lower carbon economy

engagement and emission

constraintsbusiness development

and competition

reduction in carbon intensity

(environmental incentives)

technology enabled breakthroughs

(economic growth incentives)

fossil fuel base

carb

on

em

issi

on

s

stabilization wedge

Rob Socolow and Steve Pacala Princeton University

20502000

14

7Gtc/year

19500

Stabilization Triangle

current p

ath

seven 1Gtc/year wedges

Stabilization

Triangle

Flat path

1 “wedge”

Flat path

1 wedge

20502000

14

7

19500

7 wedgesare needed to

build the stabilisation

Wedge

1 wedgeavoids 1 billion

tonnes of carbon emissions

per year by 2050

possible 1Gtc/year wedges

1. internal combustion engine efficiency

2. demand side reductions, e.g. reduce use of vehicles

3. buildings energy efficiency

4. industrial process efficiency

5. efficient baseload coal plant

6. gas for coal power

7. carbon capture & storage for power

8. carbon capture & storage for transport, e.g. synfuels from coal

9. nuclear

10.wind

11.pv solar

12.biomass for transport and power

13.hydrogen from gas

14.zero emission hydrogen

15.forestation

16.tillage

climate change – the BP journey1

99

7

19

98

19

99

20

00

BP acknowledges need for precautionary action to cut GHG emissions after exiting the Global Climate Coalition.

BP predicts $1 bn revenue in its solar business in 2007

BP sets target to cut emissions from operations to 10% below 1990 levels by 2010

BP begins funding the Carbon Mitigation Initiative at Princeton University, exploring solutions to climate change

BP initiates the CO2 Capture Project with other companies and governments, studying methods of capturing and storing carbon dioxide at power plants

BP’s solar business moves into profit and announces plans to double production. On track to meet 1997 revenue prediction

BP launches carbon dioxide capture and storage project at gas field in Algeria

BP announces plans for world’s first commercial hydrogen power station.

BP launches Alternative Energy

20

01

20

03

BP achieves its 2010 target 9 years early, having reduced GHG emissions by energy efficiency projects and cutting flaring of unwanted gas, creating $650M in value

Based on work at Princeton, BP sets out range of technology options to stabilize GHG emissions over 50 years, including increases in solar, wind, gas-fired power and carbon capture and storage

20

02

20

04

BP announces plans to build wind farm at Nerefco, Netherlands

20

05

BP’s response – so far

• alternative energy – new business, investing $8B over 10 years

• profitable PV business with $1B revenues by 2007• 450MW of wind by 2008• 2 hydrogen power stations under construction by 2008 (UK & US)• CCGT (already have 13 GW - 6GW net, plus fleet of 500 turbines)

– reducing emissions by 24Mtco2/year by 2015

• sustainable mobility– around 10% of global biofuels market– advanced biofuels have considerable potential, possibly 30% of

transport fuel– Global Choice in Australia offsetting 1MtCO2– lubricants can have a big impact, Castrol in India nearly 0.3

MtCO2/year

• increased gas production– one major gas pipeline offsets 120Mtco2, if it displaces coal

policy dimensions

need for ‘wedges’ to compete with fossil fuels,

when carbon externality is included,

by support of :

• market development

engagement of business and consumers

• technology development

R&D and demonstration projects in those areas identified as being potential ‘wedges’

• business development

incentives and support to establish new and competitive businesses

policy partnership for business growth

• Emissions Cap and Trade or Taxes schemes to drive efficiency into existing infrastructure,

• Transitional Incentives to encourage the commercial deployment of near to market technologies like renewables and carbon capture and storage,

• Investment Criteria to ensure that all new energy infrastructures are competitive against cost and emission benchmarks,

• Public Awareness to create acceptance of public policy and an increasing customer base for clean and secure energy,

• Regulation where there is clear market failure, for example energy efficiency in buildings,

• Tax and Trade Consistency to remove inconsistencies and barriers, for example to allow the creation of an open global market for biofuels.