Clean, Affordable Decentralized Energy Options -- Burma Chris Greacen Palang Thai MEE-Net Seminar on Energy in Burma 24 Jan 2011 Chiang Mai
Dec 24, 2015
Clean, Affordable Decentralized Energy
Options -- Burma
Chris GreacenPalang Thai
MEE-Net Seminar on Energy in Burma24 Jan 2011 Chiang Mai
Outline• Intro to energy
– Energy history– World energy situation– Renewable energy
• Burma– Default scenarios– For revenue: Mega dams, gas exports– For electrification: dam & diesel generation, likely power imports
from Thailand
• Addressing the Thai side– Removing bias in load forecasting– Consider clean, decentralized options on level playing field
• Addressing the Burma side– Some clean community energy options
Outline• Intro to world energy
– Energy history– World energy situation
• Burma energy situation– Energy exports to Thailand– Energy for domestic use
• Renewable energy– For village-scale applications– For sale to main grid
• Addressing the Burma side– Some clean community energy options
History of Human Energy UseEnergy source Years in use Comment
Solar energy + biomass ~ 2,000,000 Humans have relied on energy from sun & plants since species began
Animal power ~ 7,500 Animals used for riding, hauling, and cultivation
Water and wind power ~ 2,500 Travel by sail, wind and water used for pumping, mechanical tasks
Steam engine / coal ~ 250 Industrial Revolution powered by steam engines, abundant coal
Electric motors / generators / grid
~ 125 Edison Pearl St Station, 1882; Tesla AC motor/generator 1890s
Internal combustion engine / oil
~ 125 Pennsylvania oil 1859; Benz/Otto ICE vehicle 1885; Ford Model T 1908
Nuclear power ~ 50 Product of nuclear weapons development in US, USSR
Modern renewables / low-carbon sources
~ 25 California, Denmark, Germany, China
Edison Pearl Street Station - first electric distribution system, 1882
China, water-powered trip hammer, Han Dynasty CA 200 BC Watt steam engine ca. 1775 Benz automobile ca. 1886
Oil well, Pennsylvania, 1861
World Energy 1850-2000
050
100150200250300350400450500
1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000
Year
EJ/
yea
r
Gas
Oil
Coal
Nuclear
Hydro +
Biomass
The rise of global dependence on fossil fuels
World primary energy supply, 1850-2000
Hydro+ means hydropower plus other renewables besides biomass
Coal drove growth 1850-1950; oil & gas drove it (2x faster) 1950-2000
In the USA…
Current world energy system - the positive
• Cheap• Convenient • Mature technologies
• oil dependence–price volatility, developing country debt,
resource conflict• carbon emissions
–climate change• growth in consumption• Unequal distribution
– of consumption and impacts
Current world energy system - the negative
Current Energy System in a Nutshell
• Those “upwind, upstream, and uptime” enjoy convenient services at artificially low prices.
• Those “downwind, downstream, and downtime” face the consequences
Where we’re at
• progress is slow toward alternatives – fossil fuels 90% in 1980, 86% in 2005
• change is difficult to achieve– consumption habits, prices don’t reflect
externalities, vested interests• time is short for transforming the system
– already happening: climate change, oil wars, energy poverty, debt crises
Masters & Randolph, 2008
No Technological “Silver Bullet”
• oil and gas: not enough resources• coal: not enough atmosphere• biomass: not enough land• hydropower & wind: not enough sites• nuclear fission: too unforgiving• nuclear fusion: too difficult• Solar : too expensive• hydrogen: not a “source”: needs energy
to produce it • end-use efficiency: needs end-users who are
paying attention
From John P. Holdren, “The Energy Innovation Imperative,” 2006
Elements of a solution
• Sustainable energy technologies• Change markets• Change consumption behavior• Change policies• Change institutions
Sustainable energy technologies
• Renewable Energy: making use of flows of energy that are naturally replaced (wind, sun, biomass)
Problems for renewables• Cost• Technical maturity• Technical fit• Geographic mismatch • Limits to renewability
World Wind Energy Growth
Source: World Wind Energy Association
World Biofuel Growth
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
Qu
ad
rillio
n B
tu
Renewable
Hydroelectric
Nuclear
Natural Gas
NGPL
Petroleum
Coal
WORLD PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY, 1970-2004
SOURCE: AER 2006
Energy situation in Burma (?)
• Energy shortages– blackouts, fuel rationing
• High energy costs• High human suffering from impacts of
large energy projects– Large hydro– Gas
• Unequal distribution of energy, of impacts
Big hydro – for export to Thailand &
domestic use
• Used to make:– 6% of Thailand’s electricity,– 60% of Burma’s electricity (most dams
are in ethnic minority areas)• Consensus: no more big dams will be
built in Thailand.– Limited sites left in Thailand– Strong environmental opposition…– “Build in Burma instead!!!”
• Environmental issues– Inundation– Fish killed– Global warming– Changes in temperature / sediment
loading / flow regime• Can be cheap
– If reasonably close to load centers
Tasang7,000 MW
Upper Salween4,000 MW
Lower Salween500 MW
Hut Gyi 1,200 MW
Yawatit600 MW
Tanaosri720 MW
Planned megadams to export electricity to Thailand
Natural gas
• Used to make 71% of Thailand’s electricity (among highest in world)– 1/3 of gas used in Thailand comes
from Burma– 20% of our (Thai) electricity bills pay
for Burmese gas
• Single largest source of revenue to Burmese military government– Accounts for fully half of Burma’s
exports in 2006– US$2.16 billion to junta from
Thailand.– Total, Chevron, PTTEP, Petronas,
Nippon Oil, etc.
Source: Burma: Foreign Investment Finances Regime. Human Rights Watch. 2007. www.hrw.org/english/docs/2007/10/01/burma16995.htm
Rural electrification - Burma
• In 2008, 42.8 Million of Burma’s 58.82 million population lived without electricity.
• Goal: electrification rates to 60% by 2020.
Diesel
Sell electricity to Thailand cheap,buy back expensive
2 baht/kWh8 baht/kWh
1 baht/kWh
Can we imagine something different?
Saving electricity is cheaper than generating it
Source: The World Bank (1993)
2.12.6
4.04.9 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.5
8.2
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
DSM Hydro fromLaos
Gascombined
cycle
Lignite withFGD
Low-sulphurcoal w/o
FGD
Low-sulphur fuel
oil w/oFGD
LNG Low-sulphur
coal withFGD
Nuclear
Type of Power Plant
Co
st
of
En
erg
y (
US
ce
nts
/kW
H)
Demand Side Management (saving electricity)
Actual 10-year DSM average
cost!!!
1.5
The Arun-3 story
• Planned 201 MW hydro in Nepal• Sell electricity to India, rural electrification• Nepalese NGOs and small business:
“Micro-hydropower cheaper, better for local economy”
• World Bank pulled out of project, project cancelled
• 10 years later…the Nepali power system has seen the addition of:– over a 1/3 more capacity than the Arun-3– at ½ the cost– In ½ the time it would have taken to complete Arun-3
Renewable energy fuels and uses
End use
Electricity Mech power / pumping
Water heating
Cooking Transportation
Technology Off-grid On-grid
Biomass Gasifier ● ● ●
Biogas ● ● ● ●
Steam turbine
●
Direct combustion
● ●
Biodiesel or ethanol
● ● ●
Micro-hydro
● ● ●
Solar ● ● ● ● ●
Wind ● ● ●
1. Village and household scale
2. National scale (connecting to national grid)
Biodiesel
Efficient Charcoal
Micro-hydroelectricity
Source: Inversin, A. R. (1986). Micro-Hydropower Sourcebook.
Hydraulic ram pump
www.agr.gc.ca
Hydraulic ram pump
Community micro-hydro
• Mae Kam Pong village, Chiang Mai
• 1x40 kW; 2x20 kW• Community cooperative• Sells electricity to the
national grid
Solar cooking
replace
LED lighting and 0.5-5W solar panels, coupled with microfinance energy loans, can end kerosene lighting
Barefoot Power is a social enterprise delivering such solutions
Solar home systems
• 25,000 baht per household system
• 120 watts• Electricity
for 2 lights + TV
DEEP CY CLEEBB 125
3K THAI STORAGE BATTERY PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
3KDEEP CY CLE
EBB 1253K THAI STORAGE BATTERY PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
3KDEEP CY CLE
EBB 1253K THAI STORAGE BATTERY PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
3KDEEP CY CLE
EBB 1253K THAI STORAGE BATTERY PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
3KDEEP CY CLE
EBB 1253K THAI STORAGE BATTERY PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
3K
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Thai solar home systems
203,000 solar home systemsSustainability challenge
Ruggedized solar electric systems built by Karen medics in 3-5 day hands-on trainings
• 7 trainings (2003-2007)• >90 medics trained• 35 clinics
Solar for computer training centers in seven Karen refugee camps
• 1 kW PV hybrid with diesel generator• Each powers 12 computers
Bangkok Solar 1 MW PV
• Project size: 1 MW• Uses self-manufactured a-Si
Solar water heating
Biogas for cookingKatchin State, Burma
http://www.palangthai.org/en/bsep
Biogas from Pig Farms
Reduces air and water pollution
Produces fertilizer
Produces electricity
8 x 70 kW generator
Ratchaburi
Biogas from Pig Farms
• Uses waste water from cassava to make methane
• Produces gas for all factory heat (30 MW thermal) + 3 MW of electricity
• 3 x 1 MW gas generators
Korat Waste to Energy – biogas… an early Thai VSPP project
Biomass Gasification
Rice mill in Nakorn Sawan400 kW
Gasifierelectricity from wood
Rice husk-fired power plant• 9.8 MW• Roi Et, Thailand
Technical regulations:• Allowable voltage,
frequency, THD variations
• Protective relays– 1-line diagrams for all
cases:• Induction• Synchronous• Inverters• Single/multiple• Connecting at different
voltage levels (LV or MV)
• Communication channels
Commercial regulations:
• Definitions of renewable energy, and efficient cogeneration
• Cost allocation• Principle of
standardized tariff determination
• Invoicing and payment arrangements
• Arbitration
$
+ Standardized Power Purchase Agreement (PPA)
Evolution of Thai VSPP regulations• 2002
– VSPP regulations drafted, approved by Cabinet– Up to 1 MW export, renewables only– Tariffs set at avoided cost (bulk supply tariff + FT)
• 2006– Up to 10 MW export, renewables + cogeneration– Feed-in tariff “adder” – If > 1 MW then utility only pays for 98% of energy
• 2009– Tariff adder increase, more for projects that offset diesel
http://www.eppo.go.th/power/vspp-eng/ for English version of regulations, and model PPA
Thai VSPP feed-in tariff adders
Assumes exchange rate 1 Thai baht = 0.029762 U.S. dollars
Fuel Adder Additional for diesel offsetting areas
Additional for 3 southern provinces
Years effective
Biomass Capacity <= 1 MW $ 0.015 $ 0.030 $ 0.030 7 Capacity > 1 MW $ 0.009 $ 0.030 $ 0.030 7
Biogas <= 1 MW $ 0.015 $ 0.030 $ 0.030 7 > 1 MW $ 0.009 $ 0.030 $ 0.030 7
Waste (community waste, non-hazardous industrial and not organic matter)
Fermentation $ 0.074 $ 0.030 $ 0.030 7 Thermal process $ 0.104 $ 0.030 $ 0.030 7
Wind <= 50 kW $ 0.134 $ 0.045 $ 0.045 10 > 50 kW $ 0.104 $ 0.045 $ 0.045 10
Micro-hydro 50 kW - <200 kW $ 0.024 $ 0.030 $ 0.030 7 <50 kW $ 0.045 $ 0.030 $ 0.030 7
Solar $ 0.238 $ 0.045 $ 0.045 10
Tariff = adder(s) + bulk supply tariff + FT chargeBiomass tariff = $0.009 + $0.049 + $0.027 = $0.085/kWh
July 2010
Thailand VSPP Status
847 MW online
PPAs signed for additional 4283 MW
Decentralized generation
• Decentralized generation: generation of electricity near where it is used
Energy efficient end-use
Solar
Wind power
BiomassCustomers
Power plant
Old way New way
Power plant
Biomass
Energy waste in a typical pumping system
Sankey Energy Flow Diagram
CogenerationCombined Heat and Power (CHP)
Thank you
For more information, please contact [email protected]
This presentation available at:
www.palangthai.org/docs