7/24/2019 Class Sample
1/14
PERIOD DEMAND EYE INSPECTION
1 10 INTERCEPT 8
2 12 SLOPE 2
3 14
4 16 EXCEL NOTES
5 18 INTERCEPT 8
6 20 SLOPE 2
7 22 D8 248 24 CORRELATION 1 PERFECT RELATIONSHIP
7/24/2019 Class Sample
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0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
DEMAND HOLTS AND WINTERS
7/24/2019 Class Sample
3/14
Holts Model
Sales Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
AN 3001 3110 3151 3226 3351
!E" 3103 3250 3265 3327 3453
MAR 3306 3409 3453 3534 3655APR 3402 3525 3555 3628 3756
MAY 3509 3623 3665 3723 3866
#N 3604 3734 3752 3821 3987
#L 3705 3805 3859 3928 4055
A#$ 3808 3909 3966 4027 4145
SEP 3501 3620 3676 3725 3875
OCT 3303 3409 3475 3529 3653
NO% 3207 3302 3389 3422 3556
DEC 3100 3206 3299 3321 3476
Total 40549 41902 42505 43211 44828
& ' 12 (e)e*+
S,oot-.*/ Co*sta*ts
Alpha = 05
Bea = 05
!ea" #$%h Pe"&$' Le(el T"e%' F$"e)a*
0 3354+41 6+34
1 ,AN 1 3001 3180+87 -83+60 3360+75
1 FEB 2 3103 3100+14 -82+17 3097+28
1 #AR 3 330 3161+99 -10+16 3017+97
1 APR 4 3402 3276+91 52+38 3151+83
1 #A! 5 350 3419+15 97+31 3329+301 ,.N 6 304 3560+23 119+19 3516+46
1 ,.L 7 305 3692+21 125+59 3679+42
1 A./ 8 3808 3812+90 123+14 3817+80
1 SEP 9 3501 3718+52 14+38 3936+04
1 OCT 10 3303 3517+95 -93+10 3732+90
1 NO 11 320 3315+93 -147+56 3424+85
1 EC 12 3100 3134+18 -164+65 3168+37
2 ,AN 13 3110 3039+77 -129+53 2969+53
2 FEB 14 3250 3080+12 -44+59 2910+23
2 #AR 15 340 3222+26 48+78 3035+52
2 APR 16 3525 3398+02 112+27 3271+04
2 #A! 17 323 3566+64 140+45 3510+292 ,.N 18 334 3720+54 147+17 3707+09
2 ,.L 19 3805 3836+36 131+49 3867+72
2 A./ 20 30 3938+43 116+78 3967+85
2 SEP 21 320 3837+60 7+98 4055+21
2 OCT 22 340 3627+29 -101+17 3845+58
2 NO 23 3302 3414+06 -157+20 3526+12
2 EC 24 320 3231+43 -169+91 3256+86
De,a*d Dt
7/24/2019 Class Sample
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3 ,AN 25 3151 3106+26 -147+54 3061+52
3 FEB 26 325 3111+86 -70+97 2958+72
3 #AR 27 3453 3246+94 32+06 3040+89
3 APR 28 3555 3417+00 101+06 3279+00
3 #A! 29 35 3591+53 137+79 3518+06
3 ,.N 30 352 3740+66 143+46 3729+32
3 ,.L 31 385 3871+56 137+18 3884+123 A./ 32 3 3987+37 126+50 4008+74
3 SEP 33 3 3894+93 17+03 4113+87
3 OCT 34 345 3693+48 -92+21 3911+96
3 NO 35 338 3495+13 -145+28 3601+27
3 EC 36 32 3324+43 -157+99 3349+86
4 ,AN 37 322 3196+22 -143+10 3166+43
4 FEB 38 332 3190+06 -74+63 3053+12
4 #AR 39 3534 3324+71 30+01 3115+43
4 APR 40 328 3491+36 98+33 3354+73
4 #A! 41 323 3656+35 131+66 3589+69
4 ,.N 42 3821 3804+50 139+91 3788+00
4 ,.L 43 328 3936+20 135+80 3944+414 A./ 44 402 4049+50 124+55 4072+01
4 SEP 45 325 3949+53 12+29 4174+06
4 OCT 46 352 3745+41 -95+92 3961+82
4 NO 47 3422 3535+75 -152+79 3649+49
4 EC 48 3321 3351+98 -168+28 3382+96
5 ,AN 49 3351 3267+35 -126+45 3183+70
5 FEB 50 3453 3296+95 -48+43 3140+90
5 #AR 51 355 3451+76 53+19 3248+52
5 APR 52 35 3630+48 115+95 3504+95
5 #A! 53 38 3806+22 145+85 3746+43
5 ,.N 54 38 3969+53 154+58 3952+06
5 ,.L 55 4055 4089+56 137+30 4124+115 A./ 56 4145 4185+93 116+84 4226+86
5 SEP 57 385 4088+88 9+90 4302+77
5 OCT 58 353 3875+89 -101+55 4098+78
5 NO 59 355 3665+17 -156+13 3774+34
5 EC 60 34 3492+52 -164+39 3509+04
6 ,AN 61 !oreasts 3328
6 FEB 62 314
6 #AR 63 283
6 APR 64 2818
6 #A! 65 254
6 ,.N 66 240
6 ,.L 67 23256 A./ 68 211
6 SEP 69 1
6 OCT 70 1832
6 NO 71 18
6 EC 72 1503
7/24/2019 Class Sample
5/14
&a* #SE #A #APE TS
E
A
Pe")e%E""$"
7/24/2019 Class Sample
6/14
E*&ae $ *a%'a"' 'e(&a&$% $ $"e)a* e""$"
7/24/2019 Class Sample
7/14
6.*ter7s Model
Sales Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
AN 3001 3110 3151 3226 3351
!E" 3103 3250 3265 3327 3453
MAR 3306 3409 3453 3534 3655APR 3402 3525 3555 3628 3756
MAY 3509 3623 3665 3723 3866
#N 3604 3734 3752 3821 3987
#L 3705 3805 3859 3928 4055
A#$ 3808 3909 3966 4027 4145
SEP 3501 3620 3676 3725 3875
OCT 3303 3409 3475 3529 3653
NO% 3207 3302 3389 3422 3556
DEC 3100 3206 3299 3321 3476
Total 40549 41902 42505 43211 44828
& ' 12 (e)e*+
S,oot-.*/ Co*sta*ts
Alpha = 000035008
Bea = 03202321
/aa = 0
!ea" #$%h Pe"&$' Le(el T"e%' F$"e)a*
0 3354+409 6+34067
1 ,AN 1 3001 3360+737 6+32879 0+90160 3030+04
1 FEB 2 3103 3367+051 6+31514 0+93182 3137+48
1 #AR 3 330 3373+360 6+30945 0+98454 3321+20
1 APR 4 3402 3379+663 6+30326 1+01163 3418+98
1 #A! 5 350 3385+962 6+29978 1+03923 3518+81
1 ,.N 6 304 3392+257 6+29529 1+06624 3616+97
1 ,.L 7 305 3398+553 6+29553 1+08997 3704+30
1 A./ 8 3808 3404+851 6+29783 1+11636 3801+05
1 SEP 9 3501 3411+141 6+29044 1+03240 3521+67
1 OCT 10 3303 3417+422 6+28209 0+97296 3325+031 NO 11 320 3423+694 6+27281 0+94364 3230+75
1 EC 12 3100 3429+950 6+25674 0+91543 3139+89
2 ,AN 13 3110 3436+212 6+26162 0+90160 3098+07
2 FEB 14 3250 3442+492 6+27834 0+93182 3207+75
2 #AR 15 340 3448+775 6+28342 0+98454 3395+44
2 APR 16 3525 3455+070 6+29427 1+01163 3495+24
2 #A! 17 323 3461+375 6+30344 1+03923 3597+16
2 ,.N 18 334 3467+692 6+31610 1+06624 3697+38
De,a*dD
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Sea*$%alFa)$" S
7/24/2019 Class Sample
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2 ,.L 19 3805 3474+014 6+32235 1+08997 3786+55
2 A./ 20 30 3480+345 6+33017 1+11636 3885+32
2 SEP 21 320 3486+683 6+33744 1+03240 3599+65
2 OCT 22 340 3493+025 6+34140 0+97296 3398+57
2 NO 23 3302 3499+366 6+34134 0+94364 3302+15
2 EC 24 320 3505+706 6+34004 0+91543 3209+22
3 ,AN 25 3151 3512+039 6+33372 0+90160 3166+453 FEB 26 325 3518+367 6+32839 0+93182 3278+47
3 #AR 27 3453 3524+689 6+32195 0+98454 3470+19
3 APR 28 3555 3531+004 6+31572 1+01163 3572+08
3 #A! 29 35 3537+316 6+31178 1+03923 3676+10
3 ,.N 30 352 3543+618 6+30266 1+06624 3778+36
3 ,.L 31 385 3549+916 6+29918 1+08997 3869+29
3 A./ 32 3 3556+214 6+29785 1+11636 3970+03
3 SEP 33 3 3562+511 6+29716 1+03240 3677+94
3 OCT 34 345 3568+810 6+29818 0+97296 3472+31
3 NO 35 338 3575+114 6+30419 0+94364 3373+62
3 EC 36 32 3581+427 6+31244 0+91543 3278+53
4 ,AN 37 322 3587+736 6+30888 0+90160 3234+694 FEB 38 332 3594+035 6+30018 0+93182 3348+99
4 #AR 39 3534 3600+331 6+29619 0+98454 3544+66
4 APR 40 328 3606+619 6+28869 1+01163 3648+57
4 #A! 41 323 3612+896 6+27745 1+03923 3754+65
4 ,.N 42 3821 3619+159 6+26434 1+06624 3858+91
4 ,.L 43 328 3625+415 6+25636 1+08997 3951+59
4 A./ 44 402 3631+662 6+24735 1+11636 4054+26
4 SEP 45 325 3637+897 6+23636 1+03240 3755+78
4 OCT 46 352 3644+127 6+23006 0+97296 3545+60
4 NO 47 3422 3650+348 6+22122 0+94364 3444+63
4 EC 48 3321 3656+558 6+21061 0+91543 3347+32
5 ,AN 49 3351 3662+789 6+23052 0+90160 3302+345 FEB 50 3453 3669+035 6+24404 0+93182 3418+85
5 #AR 51 355 3675+293 6+25773 0+98454 3618+44
5 APR 52 35 3681+563 6+26926 1+01163 3724+37
5 #A! 53 38 3687+845 6+28114 1+03923 3832+52
5 ,.N 54 38 3694+144 6+29780 1+06624 3938+83
5 ,.L 55 4055 3700+450 6+30513 1+08997 4033+35
5 A./ 56 4145 3706+758 6+30741 1+11636 4138+08
5 SEP 57 385 3713+081 6+32228 1+03240 3833+37
5 OCT 58 353 3719+417 6+33523 0+97296 3618+83
5 NO 59 355 3725+769 6+35096 0+94364 3515+77
5 EC 60 34 3732+146 6+37493 0+91543 3416+49
AN 1 0+90160 3304 !E" 2 0+93182 34855
MAR 3 0+98454 332
APR 4 1+01163 380135
MAY 5 1+03923 311
#N 1+06624 402015
#L 1+08997 41155
A#$ 8 1+11636 42233
7/24/2019 Class Sample
9/14
SEP 1+03240 31230
OCT 0 0+97296 332
NO% 1 0+94364 3588
DEC 2 0+91543 34854
7/24/2019 Class Sample
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&a* #SE #A #APE TS
29+0409 29+0409 29+0409 843+3753 29+0409 0+9677 0+9677 1+0000
34+4828 34+4828 63+5237 1016+2192 31+7619 1+1113 1+0395 2+0000
15+2008 15+2008 78+7245 754+5005 26+2415 0+4598 0+8463 3+0000
16+9773 16+9773 95+7018 637+9324 23+9254 0+4990 0+7595 4+0000
9+8080 9+8080 105+5097 529+5852 21+1019 0+2795 0+6635 5+0000
12+9716 12+9716 118+4814 469+3649 19+7469 0+3599 0+6129 6+0000
-0+6961 0+6961 117+7853 402+3820 17+0254 0+0188 0+5280 6+9182
-6+9539 6+9539 110+8314 358+1288 15+7664 0+1826 0+4848 7+0296
20+6728 20+6728 131+5042 365+8215 16+3116 0+5905 0+4966 8+0620
22+0266 22+0266 153+5307 377+7564 16+8831 0+6669 0+5136 9+093823+7499 23+7499 177+2807 394+6930 17+5073 0+7406 0+5342 10+1261
39+8864 39+8864 217+1671 494+3789 19+3723 1+2867 0+5969 11+2102
-11+9272 11+9272 205+2399 467+2927 18+7996 0+3835 0+5805 10+9173
-42+2510 42+2510 162+9889 561+4249 20+4747 1+3000 0+6319 7+9605
-13+5616 13+5616 149+4273 536+2576 20+0138 0+3978 0+6163 7+4662
-29+7566 29+7566 119+6707 558+0827 20+6227 0+8442 0+6305 5+8029
-25+8354 25+8354 93+8353 564+5171 20+9293 0+7131 0+6354 4+4834
-36+6169 36+6169 57+2184 607+6438 21+8009 0+9806 0+6546 2+6246
E
A
Pe")e%E""$"
7/24/2019 Class Sample
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-18+4528 18+4528 38+7656 593+5839 21+6247 0+4850 0+6457 1+7927
-23+6816 23+6816 15+0839 591+9457 21+7275 0+6058 0+6437 0+6942
-20+3536 20+3536 -5+2697 583+4849 21+6621 0+5623 0+6398 -0+2433
-10+4281 10+4281 -15+6977 561+9058 21+1514 0+3059 0+6246 -0+7422
0+1475 0+1475 -15+5502 537+4761 20+2382 0+0045 0+5976 -0+7684
3+2210 3+2210 -12+3292 515+5135 19+5292 0+1005 0+5769 -0+6313
15+4493 15+4493 3+1201 504+4402 19+3660 0+4903 0+5735 0+161113+4732 13+4732 16+5933 492+0205 19+1393 0+4127 0+5673 0+8670
17+1901 17+1901 33+7834 484+7420 19+0671 0+4978 0+5647 1+7718
17+0787 17+0787 50+8621 477+8469 18+9961 0+4804 0+5617 2+6775
11+0996 11+0996 61+9617 465+6178 18+7238 0+3029 0+5528 3+3092
26+3635 26+3635 88+3252 473+2649 18+9785 0+7027 0+5578 4+6540
10+2892 10+2892 98+6144 461+4134 18+6982 0+2666 0+5484 5+2740
4+0268 4+0268 102+6412 447+5010 18+2397 0+1015 0+5344 5+6273
1+9404 1+9404 104+5816 434+0544 17+7458 0+0528 0+5198 5+8933
-2+6893 2+6893 101+8923 421+5009 17+3030 0+0774 0+5068 5+8887
-15+3796 15+3796 86+5127 416+2160 17+2480 0+4538 0+5053 5+0158
-20+4711 20+4711 66+0416 416+2951 17+3375 0+6205 0+5085 3+8092
8+6944 8+6944 74+7360 407+0870 17+1039 0+2695 0+5020 4+369521+9853 21+9853 96+7213 409+0940 17+2324 0+6608 0+5062 5+6128
10+6603 10+6603 107+3817 401+5183 17+0639 0+3017 0+5010 6+2929
20+5749 20+5749 127+9566 402+0635 17+1517 0+5671 0+5026 7+4603
31+6536 31+6536 159+6102 416+6949 17+5054 0+8502 0+5111 9+1178
37+9140 37+9140 197+5241 440+9991 17+9913 0+9923 0+5226 10+9789
23+5855 23+5855 221+1097 443+6799 18+1214 0+6004 0+5244 12+2016
27+2630 27+2630 248+3727 450+4888 18+3291 0+6770 0+5278 13+5507
30+7805 30+7805 279+1532 461+5322 18+6058 0+8263 0+5345 15+0035
16+5993 16+5993 295+7525 457+4888 18+5622 0+4704 0+5331 15+9330
22+6289 22+6289 318+3813 458+6500 18+6487 0+6613 0+5358 17+0725
26+3237 26+3237 344+7051 463+5311 18+8086 0+7926 0+5412 18+3270
-48+6602 48+6602 296+0449 502+3940 19+4179 1+4521 0+5597 15+2460-34+1516 34+1516 261+8933 515+6728 19+7125 0+9890 0+5683 13+2856
-36+5556 36+5556 225+3376 531+7638 20+0428 1+0002 0+5768 11+2428
-31+6302 31+6302 193+7074 540+7774 20+2656 0+8421 0+5819 9+5584
-33+4825 33+4825 160+2249 551+7264 20+5150 0+8661 0+5873 7+8101
-48+1681 48+1681 112+0569 584+4752 21+0271 1+2081 0+5988 5+3292
-21+6471 21+6471 90+4098 582+3684 21+0384 0+5338 0+5976 4+2974
-6+9165 6+9165 83+4933 572+8232 20+7862 0+1669 0+5899 4+0168
-41+6287 41+6287 41+8646 593+1762 21+1518 1+0743 0+5984 1+9792
-34+1665 34+1665 7+6981 603+0758 21+3762 0+9353 0+6042 0+3601
-40+2250 40+2250 -32+5270 620+2788 21+6957 1+1312 0+6131 -1+4992
-59+5145 59+5145 -92+0415 668+9738 22+3260 1+7122 0+6314 -4+1226
*a%'a"' 'e(&a&$ 27+91
7/24/2019 Class Sample
12/14
7/24/2019 Class Sample
13/14
I%e")ep 3354+409
Sl$pe a 6+340672
C$p:e he &%&&al *ea*$%al a)$"* a* $ll$;*
Pe"&$'
0 3354+41
1 3001 3360+75 0+89 0+9016
2 3103 3367+09 0+92 0+9318
3 330 3373+43 0+98 0+9845
4 3402 3379+77 1+01 1+0116
5 350 3386+11 1+04 1+0392
6 304 3308 3392+45 1+06 1+0662
7 305 33881 33833 3398+79 1+09 1+0900
8 3808 340042 3342 3405+13 1+12 1+1164
9 3501 34000 34041 3411+48 1+03 1+0324
10 3303 34125 341413 3417+82 0+97 0+973011 320 34285 342400 3424+16 0+94 0+9436
12 3100 34358 34341 3430+50 0+90 0+9154
13 3110 3442 34435 3436+84 0+90
14 3250 34533 345213 3443+18 0+94
15 340 3425 3412 3449+52 0+99
16 3525 34508 340 3455+86 1+02
17 323 348300 3404 3462+20 1+05
18 334 34183 34842 3468+54 1+08
19 3805 34525 34354 3474+88 1+10
20 30 3450 34588 3481+22 1+12
21 320 35001 34833 3487+56 1+04
22 340 3502 350142 3493+90 0+9823 3302 3501 350442 3500+24 0+94
24 320 350 3502 3506+59 0+91
25 3151 35121 3502 3512+93 0+90
26 325 3512 351454 3519+27 0+93
27 3453 352158 35125 3525+61 0+98
28 3555 35208 352433 3531+95 1+01
29 35 353433 35301 3538+29 1+04
30 352 354208 353821 3544+63 1+06
31 385 354833 354521 3550+97 1+09
32 3 355350 35502 3557+31 1+11
33 3 35025 35588 3563+65 1+03
34 345 3533 3532 3569+99 0+9735 338 3511 3585 3576+33 0+95
36 32 352 35404 3582+67 0+92
37 322 3582 35 3589+01 0+90
38 332 3585 358521 3595+35 0+93
39 3534 35183 358 3601+70 0+98
40 328 3533 35408 3608+04 1+01
41 323 3508 351 3614+38 1+03
42 3821 3002 30000 3620+72 1+06
43 328 31133 3013 3627+06 1+08
Th&* &* &%&&al le(el L0
Th&* &* &%&&al "e%' T0
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7/24/2019 Class Sample
14/14
44 402 32183 3158 3633+40 1+11
45 325 3312 3288 3639+74 1+02
46 352 34258 3325 3646+08 0+97
47 3422 35450 34854 3652+42 0+94
48 3321 3833 3142 3658+76 0+91
49 3351 382 333 3665+10 0+91
50 3453 3885 38383 3671+44 0+94
51 355 30125 3500 3677+78 0+9952 35 31158 3042 3684+12 1+02
53 38 3225 311 3690+46 1+05
54 38 335 3221 3696+81 1+08
55 4055 3703+15 1+10
56 4145 3709+49 1+12
57 385 3715+83 1+04
58 353 3722+17 0+98
59 355 3728+51 0+95
60 34 3734+85 0+93