Class Mobility in Modern China Jing YANG University of Oxford RC28: Social Inequality and Mobility in the Process of Social Transformation 24-27 May 2007.

Class Mobility in Modern Class Mobility in Modern ChinaChina

Jing YANGJing YANG

University of OxfordUniversity of Oxford

RC28: Social Inequality and Mobility in the Process RC28: Social Inequality and Mobility in the Process of Social Transformationof Social Transformation

24-27 May 2007 24-27 May 2007

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I. Research in China

II. Data source

III. Absolute rates of class mobility

IV. Trends in social fluidity

V. Multi-matrix model of social fluidity in China

VI. Conclusion & Further considerations

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I. Research in Social Stratification in China during I. Research in Social Stratification in China during the Market Transition Periodthe Market Transition Period

1. Debate on Market Transition Theory 1. Debate on Market Transition Theory (Life History and Social Change in Contemporary China: 1996, (Life History and Social Change in Contemporary China: 1996,

A.G. Walder, and D. J. Treiman)A.G. Walder, and D. J. Treiman)

2. Chinese Researchers: 2. Chinese Researchers: 1) 1988 Survey (Research on Social Structure in Contemporary 1) 1988 Survey (Research on Social Structure in Contemporary

China: 6 cities)China: 6 cities)Cheng and Dai (1995): Trends of Absolute & Relative mobility Cheng and Dai (1995): Trends of Absolute & Relative mobility Cheung (1997): Application of the core model of social fluidity Cheung (1997): Application of the core model of social fluidity

2) 2001 Survey (The changing social structure in contemporary 2) 2001 Survey (The changing social structure in contemporary China: national probability sampling)China: national probability sampling)

1.1. 9-class Occupational Structure: CASS029-class Occupational Structure: CASS022.2. Rise of New Middle ClassRise of New Middle Class

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My Research Goal:My Research Goal: What is the class structure and the What is the class structure and the patterns of intergenerational mobility in China patterns of intergenerational mobility in China during the market transitional period? during the market transitional period?

Multi-staged national probability sampleMulti-staged national probability sample

In-depth interview: 14 partsIn-depth interview: 14 parts

Urban: 3087; Rural: 3003 (Age: 20-69)Urban: 3087; Rural: 3003 (Age: 20-69)

Occupational coding: Occupational coding:

CSCO95CSCO95 9-class CASS02 9-class CASS02ISCO-68ISCO-685-class CASMIN5-class CASMIN

II. Life History and Social Change in Contemporary China: 1996Life History and Social Change in Contemporary China: 1996A.G. Walder, and D. J. TreimanA.G. Walder, and D. J. Treiman

55

II. Life

His

tory

& S

ocia

l Ch

an

ge in

Con

tem

pora

ry

Ch

ina: 1

99

6

66

II. Life History & Social Change in Contemporary China: 1996

Recoding Procedure: CSOC959-class CASS024-class CASS02

77

II. Life History & Social Change in Contemporary China: 1996

Recoding Procedure: ISCO-68 egp10 CASMIN7 (2 empty classes)CASMIN5

99

II. Life History & Social Change in Contemporary China: 1996

1313

III. Absolute Mobility Rates

1996 Survey

Cohorts: Age at the time of inquiry

1. 1927-48: 48-692. 1949-65: 31-473. 1966-77: 19-30

Figure 1: Total mobility rates by sex

4147

54

33

4347

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1927-48 1949-65 1966-77

Respondents' birth cohorts

Per

cen

tag

e

Male

Female

1414

Figure 2.1: Absolute mobility rates by cohorts (male)

4147

54

33 35 34

9 1220

5953

46

0

10

20

3040

50

60

70

1927-48 1949-65 1966-77

Respondents' cohorts

Pe

rce

nta

ge TMR

TU

TD

TIR

Figure 2.2: Absolute mobility rates by cohorts (female)

3343 47

2429 28

814

19

6757 53

01020304050607080

1927-48 1949-65 1966-77

Respondents' cohorts

Per

cen

tag

e TMR

TU

TD

TIR

III.

Ab

solu

te M

ob

ilit

y

Rate

s

TMR: Total Mobility Rate (TU+TD)TU: Total Upward Mobility RateTD: Total Downward Mobility RateTIR: Total Immobility Rate (1-TMR)

1515

Main Findings

1. Declining but still important agricultural sector

2. Slowly increasing total upward mobility rate

3. Increasing total downward mobility rate

4. Increasing mobility rates between agricultural & manual working class; manual & nonmanual class

5. Growing boundary/declining mobility rates between middle class/peasants

III. Absolute Mobility Rates

2020

IV-1. Relative Mobility Rates: application of CnSF, CmSF, and Unidiff model

2121

1. 1. CnSF (Male & Female) The association between class of origin and destination The association between class of origin and destination

remains remains the same cross three cohorts for men and women. the same cross three cohorts for men and women.

2. CmSFThe association between class of origin and destination has The association between class of origin and destination has

been found been found the same for men and women, net of gender discrepancies in the same for men and women, net of gender discrepancies in

the the allocation of class of origins and destinations.allocation of class of origins and destinations.

3. UnidiffThere is no strong evidence on the weakening ties There is no strong evidence on the weakening ties between class of origin and destination either cross three between class of origin and destination either cross three

cohorts or cohorts or between men and women, based on 1996 survey data between men and women, based on 1996 survey data

IV-1. Relative Mobility Rates: application of CnSF, CmSF, and Unidiff model

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1. Original Core Model of Social Fluidity based on 7-class CASMIN

1) 3 Divisions of occupational structure i) I+II; ii) III, IVa+b+c, V+VI; iii) VIIb+c;

2) 4 effects: Hierarchical (HI); Inheritance (IN); Sector (SE); Affinity (AF)

3) 8 Matrices: HI1, HI2; IN1, IN2, IN3; SE; AF1 AF2

IV-2 Multi-matrix Model of Social Fluidity in Modern China

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IV-2. Multi-matrix Model of Social Fluidity in Modern China

2. Modified Model of Social Fluidity in Modern China based on 5-class CASMIN

1) Dropped matrices: IN3, AF1

2) Combined matrices: IN1 & IN2 IN

3) 3 Divisions of occupational structure i) I+II; ii) III, V+VI, VIIa; iii) VIIb

4) 4 effects and 5 matrices

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IV-2

. Mod

el o

f Socia

l Flu

idity

in M

od

ern

C

hin

a

2727

IV-2. Model of Social Fluidity in Modern China

2828

Summary:

1. 1996 Survey: Male vs. Female1) Stronger hierarchical effects on male:

HI1+HI22) Stronger inheritance effect on male: IN3) Comparatively weaker sector effect on

male: SE4) Similar Affinity Effect on male and female:

AF2

2. 1996 Survey vs. 1988 Survey (for both male & female)

1) Weaker hierarchical effect in 1996: HI1 (HI2 predicted)

2) Weaker inheritance effect in 1996: IN3) Stronger sector effects in 1996: SE

IV-2 Model of Social Fluidity in Modern China

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V. Conclusion & Further Considerations

Conclusion1. Increasing total absolute mobility & growing class

boundaries at the extreme of the class structure

2. Constant social fluidity

3. Modernized patterns of social fluidity

Further Considerations1. Updated survey & Comparison

2. Regional differences

3. Validity & reliability of the Chinese class schema