Class 8

Class 8

a) Atmosphere &b) Environment and GDP

http://www.agecon.purdue.edu/staff/shively/courses/AGEC406/index.htm

AGEC/FNR 406 LECTURE 18

What the ozone hole looks like to a statistician!

Atmospheric Change

1. Ozone depletion in stratosphere

2. Global warming and climate change

Two major issues

Stock vs. Fund Pollutants

1. Fund pollutants: environment has some assimilative capacity

2. Stock pollutants: environment has little or no assimilative capacity

Economic importance is that stock pollutants continue to accumulate or are persistent: the problem is dynamic not static

Issues in atmospheric change:

1. Activities affect basic chemistry

2. Pollutants accumulate

3. Effects are global

4. Economic impacts may be severe

5. Consequences are uncertain

Ozone depletion

Main issue:Ozone in stratosphere blocks UVDepletion of ozone was predicted in 1974Depletion was first observed in 1985

More UV means…- skin cancer- lower agricultural yields- mutation in phytoplankton

Ozone hole

1. Annual variation normal

2. Less ozone now

Source: British Antarctic Survey, data online at http://www.antarctica.ac.uk/met/jds/ozone/data/ZOZ5699.DAT

Ozone depletion: main cause Main cause of ozone depletion is worldwide

use of fluorocarbons, especially cholorofluorocarbons (CFCs).

CFCs are: catalysts to convert O3 (“ozone”) to O2

inert, and therefore persistent

CFCs: main usesRefrigeration

Air conditioningSpray propellantsFoam production

Solvents

Ubiquitous in industry and consumer products in 1960s, 70s, and 80s.

Main benefit: inert

Ozone depletion: consequences1. More UV transmission

2. CFCs are greenhouse gases and therefore increase global warming

3. Less ozone has a cooling effect andtherefore mitigates global warming

Net effect on global warming ambiguous,but other negative effects are clear.

Ozone depletion: policy context

MAC

MDF

CFC emissions

$

The optimal level is near zero, so a ban is likely to be an

efficient approach.

Montreal Protocol1987 agreement signed by most nations

amended in 1990 and 1992

Called for complete elimination of CFCs: - in industrialized countries by 1996

(done) - in developing countries by 2006

(still in progress)

CFC replacements(hydrochloroflurocarbons)

Two issues:

1. HCFCs are also ozone depleting

2. Economic incentives to develop recovery systems

but… since CFCs are still available in less developed countries, an incentive for illegal importation exists.

What Progress?

“Perhaps the single most successful international agreement to date has been the Montreal Protocol.”- Kofi Annan, Secretary General of the United Nations

But…according to NASA, from September 21-30, 2006 the average area of the ozone hole was the largest ever observed, at 10.6 million square miles.

For more information, visit:

http://www.theozonehole.com/montreal.htmwww.atm.ch.cam.ac.uk/tour/andwww.ciesin.org/TG/PI/POLICY/montpro.html

Acid Rain

Name derives from a chemical reaction between

SO2 (sulfur dioxide)

NO2 (nitrogen dioxide)

and

H2O (water)

Reaction leads to...

Creation of sulfuric and nitric acid,which fall in the form of acidified rain

(or snow or sleet).

There are actually two forms of acid deposition:

1. wet deposition2. dry deposition

http://www.epa.gov/airtrends/sulfur.html

http://www.epa.gov/air/emissions/so2.htm

Acid Deposition (Acid Rain)• Regional Pollutant

– Effects felt over a broad geographic area.

– Location important: Effects felt downwind of source.

• Transboundary pollutant– Emitted in one country and transported across a national border

to another country.

U.S. sulfur dioxide emissions responsible for 50-75% of acid deposition over most of eastern Canada.

Canada sulfur dioxide emissions responsible for < 5% of acid deposition in the U.S.

Acid rain impacts

1. Aquatic systems (-)

2. Forests (-)

3. Human health (-)

4. Visibility (-)

5. Agriculture (- /+)

6. Building materials (-)

Example

$250

50

TravelCost

P = 250 -5Q

0

Number of visits 0

Damage = Loss in consumer

surplus.

$200

P = 200 -5Q

40

Damage and cost assessment

Main issues:1. Market and non-market effects2. Chemical synergies + metals3. “Common metric” problem

Measurement and quantification of MAC is difficult due to interdependencies.

Who benefits? Who should pay?

Actual policy in U.S.

1970-1990- uncertainty prevailed- Reagan administration stalled- EPA regulations focused on local effects

which may have exacerbated problem

1990-present- Clean Air Act: marketable permits

(1990)- NOXexcluded, 1-1 trading ignores location- SO2 falling but NO2 increasing

Why so long?

Political concern regarding job lossesin coal-producing states (IN, IL, MI, OH)

Local losses in high-sulfur coal stateswould be balanced by gains in low-sulfurcoal states

Costs of electricity would rise

Marketable Permits: Allowances

• Emission standard set and number of permits determined.

• Permits issued to polluters based on some allocation system.

• Polluters allowed to trade permits.

• Market should develop…

Why does trading work?

1. If firm can cleanup at a price lower than the permit price, it will.• Low MAC firms sell permits

2. If cleanup is costly then a firm will choose to buy a permit

• High MAC firms buy permits

3. Anyone who wants to can buy apermit.

GDP

Non-marketed services are excluded

Does not accounts for depreciation of natural capital

What doesn’t GDP measure?

Example: Exxon Valdez oil spill

Three types of capital

1. Human

2. Human made

3. Natural

The key issue from an environmental standpoint is whether these different forms of capital can be substituted

Alternatives to GDP

1. Net National Product (NNP) or Green GDP (gGDP)

Accounts for depreciation of naturalcapital.

2. Index of environmental indicators

Accounts for the fact that many benefits from environmental improvements are not accounted for in market transactions

International aspects of the environment

1. International public goods

2. Transfrontier pollution

3. Impact of environmental policy on trade

4. Impact of trade policy on environment

Global public goods Similar to national or local public goods:

nonexcludable and nonrival in consumption, but production and consumption are separated by political border.

Examples: The atmosphere and outer space

Disease prevention

Ecosystem services

Transfrontier Pollution Pollution that crosses an international

political boundary

Examples: Acid RainSmoke from firesWater pollution in major

river systems

Important because applying economic incentives may be difficult -- but some hope for solutions based on tradable permits.

Environmental Policy and Trade Main concern is that a country’s

environmental policies will reduce the country’s competitiveness and reduce its volume of exports.

Three main linkages: 1. Cost of production 2. Incentives for relocation

3. Export of “green technologies”

Trade Policy and the Environment Trade policy is generally designed to

promote exports and imports without regard to conditions of production. This often has the effect of undermining environmental goals (both domestic and international).

Trade Alliances North American Free Trade Agreement

(NAFTA) US + Mexico + Canada

General Agreement on Trade and Tariffs (GATT)

Includes most countries

Why are Trade Alliances Important? They often specify that “unfair” barriers

cannot be used to protect a country against imports.

WTO has generally held restrictions on environmental grounds to be unfair.

Examples: U.S. attempted tuna ban from Mexico (w/o “dolphin friendly” practices)

Conflict resolution? Free trade and environmental policies are

both beneficial.

A potential compromise would be to establish an international board to review cases and separate reasonable environmental barriers from phony barriers.