Clackamas Watershed Resilience Phase I Report November 2018 For more info. contact: Beth Gilden at ISS ([email protected]) or Kim Swan at Clackamas River Water Providers ([email protected])
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Clackamas Watershed Resilience Phase I Report
November 2018
For more info. contact: Beth Gilden at ISS ([email protected]) or Kim Swan at Clackamas River Water Providers
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Acknowledgements ThisreportwasresearchedandproducedwithsupportfromtheInstituteforSustainableSolutions(ISS)incollaborationwithTheClackamasRiverWaterProvidersandWaterEnvironmentServices.
Contents
Executive Summary 3
Stakeholder Engagement Around Water Quality And Quantity In The Clackamas River Watershed 7
Characterizing Precipitation In The Clackamas River Watershed 16
Drivers Of Water Quality In The Clackamas River Watershed 19
Flow Extremes In The Clackamas River Watershed 23
Fire Risk In The Clackamas River Watershed 25
TheClackamasRiverWaterProvidersisacoalitionofthemunicipalwaterprovidersthatgettheirdrinkingwaterfromtheClackamasriverwhoareworkingtogetheronwaterresourceissues.
TheInstituteforSustainableSolutionsworkstomatchthepassionandexpertiseofPortlandStateUniversityfacultyandstudentswiththeexperienceandneedsofcommunitygroups,governmentagencies,andbusinessestodeveloppracticalsolutionsformoreequitable,livable,sustainablecitiesandregions.
TheWaterEnvironmentServicespartnershipprovidessurfacewatermanagementandsanitarysewerserviceformorethan165,000customersinHappyValley,Milwaukie,Gladstone,OregonCity,WestLinn,JohnsonCity,Hoodland,Boring,Fischer’sForestParkandunincorporatedClackamasCounty.
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Clackamas Watershed Resilience Project Phase I report
Executive Summary
Introduction TheClackamasRiverprovidesdrinkingwatertoover300,000peopleinClackamasandWashingtonCounties,aswellasrecreationopportunities,andirrigationforfarms.LikeotherareasofthePacificNorthwest,theClackamasRiverWatershed(CW)isvulnerabletochangesinclimatethatcouldimpactwatersuppliesandthenaturalandhumansystemsthatdependonthem.Increasesinwinterflowanddecreasesinsummerflowareparticularlylikelytohavenegativeimpactsonwaterresourcesandwater-dependentindustriesandecosystems.Increasedfrequencyofhigh-impactatmosphericriverrainfallevents,coupledwithsea-levelriseeffectsonthemainstemWillametteRiverareanincreasedthreattotheresiliencyofthewastewaterandstormwaterinfrastructureintheCW.Increasedstormwaterrunoffmayalsoaddmorenon-pointsourcepollutantstotheClackamasRiver,andhotter,driersummerscouldleadtoincreasedwaterdemandsandmeanmoreforestfiresthathavecompoundingimpactsonwaterquantityandquality.
TheextenttowhichClackamaswaterresourcesprovidedbythewatershedaresusceptibletoimpactsfromclimatechangeintothemidandlate21stcenturyisunknown.PreviousresearchshowsthatstreamflowintheCWismoresensitivetochangesintemperaturethantochangesinprecipitation(GravesandChang2007,Jungetal.2012).Aholisticunderstandingofrecentandhistoricaltrendsinclimate,hydrology,andmanagementoftheCWcanhelpwaterandland
Project Goal
The goal of the Clackamas Watershed Resilience project is to help project partners understand local impacts of climate change on water quality and quantity in the region; and develop strategies to sustain a healthy,
reliable water source.
Project Team Portland State University Dr. Max Nielsen-Pincus, Environmental
Science and Management Dr. Heejun Chang, Geography Dr. Andres Holz, Geography Dr. Paul Loikith, Geography Dr. Stefan Talke, Civil and Environmental
Engineering Erin Upton, Student, Environmental Science
and Management Christina Aragon, Student, Geography Junjie Chen, Student, Geography Jonathan Rappaport, Student, Civil
Engineering Beth Gilden, Project Manager, Institute for
Sustainable Solutions Community Partners Kim Swan, Clackamas River Water Providers Matt Glazewski, Water Environment Services
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managersinpreparingforandrespondingtochanginghumanandnaturalconditions.Thisreportdescribesthefirstphaseofamulti-phaseappliedresearchprojectdevelopedinpartnershipbetweenPortlandStateUniversity(PSU)andpartnersattheClackamasRiverWaterProviders(CRWP)andWaterEnvironmentServices(WES)ofClackamasCountytoinformstakeholderunderstandingoftheClackamasRiverWatershedresiliencetoclimatevariabilityandchange.
CRWPrepresents8waterprovidersonmattersofcollectiveinterestincludingwatershedprotectionandeducation.ManyofthesamecommunitiesareprovidedsanitarysewerandstormwatermanagementservicesintheurbanizedareasofNorthClackamasCountybyWES.WESprovideswholesalesanitarysewerservicetothecitiesofWestLinn,Gladstone,OregonCity,JohnsonCity,andMilwaukie.Stormwatermanagementservice,inadditiontosanitarysewerservice,isprovidedtotheCityofHappyValley,aswellasalargeurbanizedunincorporatedareaofClackamasCounty.
TheoutcomesoftheproposedprojectwillequiptheCRWP,WES,andotherstakeholdersintheCWwiththefoundationsfordevelopingaresilienceplanbyidentifyingstrategiesthatmaketheCWlesssusceptibletodisturbanceeventsorthatpromotequicksystemrecoveryfollowingadisturbance.Adaptationstrategiesmayincludetacticsthataddressthebuiltenvironment,waterinfrastructure,greeninfrastructure,ecosystemservices,riparianbuffers,floodplainconnectivity,landuseplanning,alternativewatersources,andcollaborationacrossstakeholdersineachoftheseareas.
Project Team Process and Scope ThisreportdescribesresearchwhichwascompletedfromMarch2017-June2018focusedonstakeholderinterestsinresilience,aswellashistoricalchangesinclimate,hydrology,fire,andresourcemanagementintheCW.Theobjectivesoftheprojectwereto:(1)helpclarifytheextenttowhichthequantity,quality,andtimingofwaterresourcesprovidedbytheCWhavechangedinrecenthistoryand(2)buildaframeworkforunderstandinghowsusceptibleCWwaterresourcesaretotheimpactsfromclimatechangeintothemidandlate21stcentury.
ThefindingsdescribedheredetailsomeofthesystemsthatdrivewaterquantityandqualityintheCWandwillinformmodelingexercisesinthenextphaseofresearchwhichwillconsiderclimatechangescenarios,futurelanduses,andadaptationstrategies.
ThePhaseIprojectteamincludedrepresentativesfromCRWP,WES,facultyandgraduatestudentsfromPortlandStateUniversity,andaprojectmanagerfromtheInstituteforSustainableSolutions.Theprojectteammetmonthlytodiscussresearchquestions,shareresearchupdatesandfindings,andtheimplicationsoftheresults.Researchfocusedon:
- Stakeholderconcerns:Inadditiontoprimaryprojectpartners,CRWPandWES,theteaminterviewedfifteenadditionalgovernmentalandnon-governmentalstakeholdersintheCWtohelpunderstandthemajorareasofconcernaroundwateravailabilityandquality(Chapter1).
- Localprecipitationpatterns:Theteamfocusedoncharacterizinglocalprecipitationpatternsandchangesinprecipitationpatternsfrom1980to2016.Researchersdescribeddriversof
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extremeprecipitationeventsthatcouldimpactwaterquality,flooding,andsnowpack(Chapter2).
- Turbidity:Theteamstudiedthedriversofturbiditytobetterunderstandhowwaterqualitymaybeimpactedbychangesinprecipitationaswellaslanduses(Chapter3).
- Flowpatternsandflood:Theteamlookedathistoricflowpatternstounderstandtheinfluenceofsnowmeltandextremeprecipitationonflow,aswellastheriskoffloodingasaresultofseasonalchangesinflowandsealevelrise(Chapter4).
- Firerisk:TheteamconsideredwhatclimatefactorsdrivewildfirerisksintheCWandstudiedpatternssurroundinghistoricwildfires(Chapter5).
Clackamas River Watershed Resilience Project Key Findings Followingaresomeofthekeyfindingsfromthefirstphaseofwork.Amoredetailedexplanationofthesefindingsisincludedinthelargerreport.
1. Stakeholdersareinterestedinmoreengagementaroundclimateresilienceandadaptationstrategies.Locallyrelevantscientificinformationisneededtohelpfacilitatefurtherstakeholderengagementonresilience.Majorareasconcernforstakeholdersinclude:developmentandplanningintheurbanizingareasoftheCW,pesticideandchemicaluse,wildfireriskstotheCW,septicsystemfailures,balancingwatersupplyandconsumption.
2. PrecipitationhasanimpactonbothwaterquantityandqualityintheCW.Thetimingandamountofsnowimpactswaterquantity,andextremeprecipitationeventshaveanimpactonwaterquality.Observedtrendsdonotshowasignificantchangeinannualprecipitation(2015,alowprecipitationyear,wasamajoroutlier);however,giventheimportanceofthetimingandfrequencyofextremerainfallevents(especiallyatmosphericrivers),itisimportanttocontinuemonitoringprecipitationpatternsincludingseasonalchangeandsnowmelttimingintheCW.
3. WaterqualityintheCWisaffectedbylanduses.ObservationsofthetimingofprecipitationandturbidityacrosstheCWsuggestthaturbanizationimpactswaterqualitybyreducingtheresponsetimebetweenprecipitationandincreasedturbidity.Increasedurbanizationmayhaveamoresignificantimpactonwaterqualityinthefutureifcombinedwithincreasesinthefrequencyofextremeprecipitation.
4. Riverflowappearstohaveshiftedtoamorerain-drivensystem,withgreaterwinterflowsandlesssnow-meltdrivenflows,followingtrendsalsoobservedintheColumbiaRiver(Naik&Jay2005).Ashifttoalargerwinterhydrographbutlesssummertimeflowcouldbeasignificantconcern,ifcombinedwithwarmersummersandlargersummertimewaterdemand(duetodevelopment)intheCW.
5. WildfireintheCWisdrivenbyhighdroughtconditionsobserveduptoonemonthbeforeignitionusuallyinJuneandJuly,andthedrynessoftheatmosphereintheonetothreedaysimmediatelyprecedingwhenfiresignite.Theobservationssuggestthatahumidaugustisanimportantcontrolonfireactivity,sothetimingofprecipitationandwateravailabilityareimportantindeterminingthefuturerisksofwildfire.
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Next Steps ThisprojectwillcontinuethroughJuneof2020.ThePhaseIIcollaborativeresearchteamwillcontinuetomeetregularly,andfocusonthelargerprojectgoalofhelpprojectpartnersunderstandlocalimpactsofclimatechangeonwaterqualityandquantityintheregion;anddevelopstrategiestosustainahealthy,reliablewatersource.PhaseIIwillintegratePhaseIresultsintoclimatechangescenarios,inordertoprovidemoredetailedfeedbackaboutpredictedfuturechangesinclimatethatwillaffectwaterresources.TheteamwillalsoexpandtheirfocustoincludestrategyrecommendationsforCWPandWESbyhostingworkshopswithstakeholdersaimedatfosteringdialoguearoundlocallyrelevantscientificinformationonclimatechangeandincreasingthecapacitytodevelopresilienceandadaptationstrategiesintheCW.
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Stakeholder engagement around water quality and quantity in the Clackamas River Watershed
Research Questions Thepurposeofstakeholderengagementforthisprojectwastohelptheprojectteamandpartnersbetterunderstand(1)whatrisksandvulnerabilitiestowaterresourcesintheClackamasRiverWatershed(CRW)areperceivedbystakeholders,(2)whatarethepotentialopportunitiesandbarrierstoadaptingtocurrentandfuturechallenges,and(3)howmuchstakeholderengagementandpoliticalwillexiststoadvanceadaptationefforts.
Research Approach ErinUptoninterviewedstaffandrepresentativesfromCRWstakeholderagenciesandorganizationstobetterunderstandperceptionsonthemeaningandfeasibilityofadaptationandresiliencetoclimatechangeintheCRW.Participantswereselectedwithassistancefromtheprojectpartners,theClackamasRiverWaterProvidersandClackamasCountyWaterandEnvironmentServices.Interviewswereconductedinperson,recorded,transcribed,andthematicallycodedusingAtlas.tisoftware.Seventeenintervieweesfrom15agencies/organizationsincluded:
Federal government: USFSMountHoodNationalForest,DistrictRanger
State government: DepartmentofEnvironmentalQuality,BasinCoordinatorOregonDepartmentofFishandWildlife,FishBiologistOregonDepartmentofAgriculture,WaterQualitySpecialist
County government: WaterEnvironmentServices,PolicyAnalystCountyParksandForest,Parks&ForestManagerCountyAdministration,AssistantCountyAdministratorDepartmentofPlanning,DirectorofPlanningCountyDisasterManagement,DirectorofDisasterManagementClackamasSoilandWaterConservationDistrict,GeneralManager,RiparianSpecialist
Municipal government CityofHappyValleyPlanningDepartment,PlanningServicesManagerSunriseWaterDistrict(HappyValley),Engineer
County-wide organizations ClackamasRiverWaterProviders,WaterResourceManagerClackamasRiverBasinCouncil,ExecutiveDirector
Private PortlandGeneralElectric,ProjectManager,EnvironmentalComplianceandLicensing
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Theinterviewsresultedinover220pagesoftranscripts,whichwerethencoded1toallowtheresearcherstobetterunderstand,link,andmakeconclusionsaboutthemostimportantissuesthatstakeholdersmentionedintheinterviews.Thetranscriptswerecodedusingthefollowingmajorcategories:threats,stakeholders,andadaptation.Eachcategorywasthenthematicallybrokenintosubcategoriesbasedonthecontentoftheinterviews(resultsspecifictoeachsubcategorylistedabovearepresentedasAppendix1tothisreport):
Threats WaterqualityWaterquantityDevelopment/urbanization/populationgrowthClimatechangeOthersAvarietyof“Keepsmeupatnight”scenarios
Stakeholders WhoisengagedWhoismissingPoliticalwillMessagingandoutreach
Adaptation Barriers Opportunities Appropriate scale
Findings Severalcross-cuttingthemesemergedfromthestakeholderinterviewsrelatedtoourresearchquestionsaboutclimateadaptationandresilienceintheCRW.Thefindingsreportedbelowhighlightthefollowingfourcross-cuttingthemes:
1. Partnerships and engagement: stakeholders want more engagement around climate adaptation and water resource resilience planning for the CRW.
2. Development and climate change: stakeholders are concerned about increased development impacts in light of unknown future climate change impacts.
3. Increased education for elected officials: Stakeholders believe public and elected officials need more education about land use impacts on water resources.
4. Stakeholders need translated and relevant science to better inform management and policy decision-making.
1OnetranscriptwascodedbybothUptonandNielsen-Pincusandcodingresultswerediscussedtoensurereliabilityofinterpretations.Uptoncodedthetranscriptsfromtheremaining16interviews
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OurinterviewguideaskedavarietyofquestionsaboutthethreatsandvulnerabilitiestowaterresourcesintheCRWinthecontextofclimatechange,whoischampioningthesefourthemes,andhowcapableweareofovercomingthem.Participantsnotedawidearrayofthreatsandvulnerabilitiesatthenexusofwaterresourcemanagementandclimatechange,whichweregenerallyorganizedalongthelinesofwaterqualityandwaterquantity;thematicresultsaredescribedinAppendix1.Thefollowingresultshighlightsomeofthecross-cuttingthemesweobservedfromsynthesizingtheinterviewconversations.ManyofthethematictopicshighlightedbyintervieweesweresimilartothoseenvisionedbytheoriginalISSsponsoredresearchteam.TheinterviewshelpedconfirmthevalidityofresearchquestionsposedbythebroaderISSteam,identifiedanetworkofindividualsinterestedinthesetopics,andillustratedsomeideasonhowstakeholdersintheCRWcanovercomebarrierstomanagingfutureuncertainties.
1. Partnerships and engagement “…ifyouthinkofthethreatstowater,there'salotmorecoordinationthatcouldbedoneintermsofthescienceanditsapplication…[to]addresstheuncertaintiesandtherealitiesoflandmanagement.”
ThemostcommonlymentionedopportunitytoaddressthreatstotheCRW’swaterqualityandwaterquantitywastoincreaseandenhancepartnershipsrelatedtowatershedresourcemanagement.Beyondthethreatofclimatechange,stakeholdersdiscussedtheimportanceofresilienceplanningacrossjurisdictionsandorganizationstoaddressthearrayofpotentialthreatstowaterresourcesintheCRW.Asoneparticipantstatedinrelationtotheneedforincreasedengagement:“Everybodyisjustspreadtoothin,butIthinktheopportunityandthebenefit[effectivepartnerships]createwouldoverwhelmthat.”Someparticipantspointedtotheimportanceofexistingmultiplestakeholderpartnerships,liketheClackamasStewardshipPartnersandtheClackamasRiverWaterProviders,whichalreadylookattheCRWmoreholistically.Participantsindicatedthatthesetypesofpartnershipscouldhelpparticipatingagenciesandorganizationstothinkmorestrategicallyaboutresources,priorities,andcoordinatedplanning.Oneparticipantsaid,thesetypesofpartnerships“breakdownthesilosandapplyknowledgeorresearch…”fromonearenatothebroadereffort.Inadditiontohighlightingexistingpartnerships,participantspointedtowardsfutureopportunities.Forexample,oneparticipantindicatedhowacross-departmentalClackamasCountyclimateactionplanwouldallowmoreintegratedplanning,whilealsolinkingtostateandinternationalclimategoals.AnothernotedopportunitywasClackamasCounty’sbiennialhazardassessments,whichcouldintegrateclimateadaptationandresilienceplanningifhazardassessmentsweretoidentifyclimaterelatedhazardsandrisks.Asapartnershipengagementopportunity,hazardassessmentsbringmanystakeholderstogether,includingrepresentativesfromwaterproviders,fire,law,publichealth,socialservicesandothers.Participantsnotedboththeopportunityandthechallengeoffacilitatingtheseefforts.“Timeisstretchedtoothin”saidoneparticipant,and“Wedosomuchcommunicationnowviaemailandphone”thattherearelimitstothebenefitstheycouldgetfrom“sittingdownandtalkingthroughtheissues”.Anyadditionalefforttobringstakeholderstogetheraroundtheseissueswillneedtobetimeandresourceefficienttoensureaworthwhileeffort.
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2. Development and climate change: “Justplainolddevelopmentandthevariouspeopleandentitiesthatareinvolvedthataren'tnecessarilycoordinatingonlong-termplanningandlongertermhydrologicimpactsof
development.”
Theurbanizedareasofthewatershedaregrowinginpopulation.MuchoftheareaslatedtobedevelopedunderthePortlandMetropolitanregion’sexistingurbangrowthboundaryandareasconsideredsuitableforfuturedevelopment(urbanreserves)areintheCRW.Populationgrowthanddevelopmentwillhaveanumberofimpactsonthewatershedandparticipantsrepeatedlybroughttheseissuestothefrontofourconversationsaboutclimatechange.Asoneparticipantexpressed:“Youcan’tjustkeepaddingtensofthousandsofpeopleayearintoabasinandnothaveithavesomeeffect.”
Participantsidentifiedconcernsaboutincreasedimpervioussurfaces,andlimitationsforwastewateranddrinkingwaterinfrastructure,inadditiontorecreationaloveruseoftheriverandforestsintheupperwatershed.First,manyparticipantsnotedthatincreaseddevelopmenttypicallyresultsinmoreimpervioussurfacesthatcontributetomore“flashy”hydrologiceventsthatincreasepollutantloadingandturbidityintheClackamasRiver.Developmentcanalsothreatenfloodplainconnectivity,furtherlimitingthecapacityofthehydrologicsystemtoabsorbrainfallevents.Additionally,someparticipantsindicatedthatcurrentwastewaterinfrastructurecannothandleincreaseddevelopmentinallserviceareas,andwillresultinanincreaseinthenumberofhomesonsepticsystems.Thisruralgrowthpresentsfurtherrisksduetothepotentialforindividualsepticsystemfailuresandrelatedwatercontamination.Participantswereparticularlyconcernedabouthowpotentialimpactsofdevelopmentcouldbecomecompoundedbyclimatechange.
Participantsmadetheconnectionbetweendevelopmentandclimatechange.Climatemodelsindicatedthepotentialforanincreasingnumberofhighimpactrainfallevents,whichcouldfurtherincreasethepressureonwastewaterinfrastructure.Concernsalsoexistregardingdrinkingwatershortagesasdemandriseswithpopulationgrowth,andclimatechangemayaffectthetimingorthequantityofwaterproducedbytheCRW.Finally,severalparticipantsalsonotedthatanincreasingpopulationalsoresultsinincreasingrecreationintheupperwatershed.AssomeparticipantsindicatedtheCRWisalready“lovedtodeath”andmorepeoplewillfurtherexacerbatethatchallenge.
Asindicatedabove,manyparticipantsperceivedclimatechangeasathreattotheCRWduetoanumberofrelatedfactors.Forexample,someparticipantshighlightedhowchangingandvariableweatherpatternswouldinteractwithpopulationdemandsforservices.Participantsnotedconcernoverlonger,hotter,anddriersummers;changesinthefrequencyandintensityofprecipitationevents,andreducedsnowpackleadingtoearlierandlowerlowsummerflows.ParticipantsnotedthattheimpactsofchangingandvariableweatherpatternsonmanagementoftheCRWcouldaffectwateravailabilityformunicipaluse,irrigation,andfishhabitat.Anothercommonconcernwasoverbigstormevents.Intensestormscancausebigger“firstflush”events,washingpollutantsfromagriculturalandurbanareasintowaterwaysresultinginincreaseddisinfectionbi-productsindrinkingwater.Oneparticipanthighlightedthatcurrentinfrastructurestrugglestohandle“whatis
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comingdownthepike”…and“withmoreandmorepeoplemovinghereandmoreandmoredevelopmentinourserviceareacombinedwithhigherimpactrainfallevents,there'salotofthingsthatarecomingatus…”Bigstormeventscanalsoimpacthydroelectricdaminfrastructure.Otherclimaterelatedconcernsincluded(1)anincreaseinwildfirehazardduetolessresilientforeststhataremoresusceptibletopestsanddrought,(2)increasedalgaebloomsthatcompromisedrinkingwaterduetodeclinesinwaterquality,(3)pooroceanconditionsfurtherimpactinganadromousfishrunsintheClackamasRiver,and(4)theriskofsealevelriseincreasingfloodrisktolow-lyingwastewaterinfrastructureneartheconfluenceoftheClackamasandWillametteRivers.
3. Need for improved public and elected official education about land use impacts on water resources. “Once we adopted our drinking water protection plan, it became clear very quickly that there's a huge outreach component in the watershed… We have two audiences. One [is] our customers,
because it's their water dollars that are funding our programs upriver. And then our other audience is the people who are actually in the watershed, in that their land-use can impact our
drinking water source.”
AlthoughintervieweesreadilyidentifiedanarrayofagenciesandorganizationsthatarechampioningwaystoaddressthethreatstheyperceivedtotheCRW(Table1),participantselaboratedinmoredepthabouttheneedforimprovededucationofthepublicandofelectedofficials.Specifically,manyparticipantsaddressedlinksbetweenlandmanagementandimpactsondrinkingwater.Participantsdiscussedtheneedforpublicmessagingandeducationaboutpesticides,agriculturalpollution,firedanger,wastemanagementanddumping,septicsystemfailures,andwaterconsumption.Asthepopulationoftheregioncontinuestogrow,participantsstressedtheneedforongoingpublicawareness,education,andoutreach.SomeorganizationsandprogramsintheCRWhaveoutreachandeducationasacorepartoftheirmission,includingtheClackamasSoilandWaterConservationDistrict,theClackamasRiverBasinCouncil,andtheClackamasRiverWaterProviders.Asoneparticipantnoted,thechallengeisaboutmobilizingtheconnectionmanypeoplehavetotheClackamasRiver:“Howdoyoueducatepeoplebetter,[sothey]knowhowtodealwiththeissues[i.e.threats]?Wehaveagreatopportunity,Ithink,inthePortlandMetroAreatohavealargevolunteerbaseandalotofpeoplethatareinterestedinseeingtheriverprotected.Theyjustdon'tknowwhattodo.”
Inadditiontopubliceducation,manyparticipantsalsonotedaneedtoeducateelectedofficialsaboutwatermanagementandlong-termplanningneeds.SeveralparticipantsnotedhowelectionresultscanleadtopendulumswingsinpoliticalvaluesthatimpacttheCRW,andthusparticipantsfurtherstressedtheneedtocontinuetoeducateelectedofficialsaboutvulnerabilitiestowaterresourcesandplanningandmanagementnecessities.OthersnotedthatOregon’snearly50yearoldsystemoflanduseplanninghasresultedinamoregeneralacceptanceofenvironmentalregulations,butthatdevelopmentofnewareas,likeHappyValley,createadesireforgreaterlocalcontroloverutilities,parks,andotherservicesthatcanimpactthehealthofwaterresources.Manyrespondentsalsohighlightedexistingandanticipatedreductionstofederalandstategovernmentagencybudgets.Oregon’staxsystem,notedoneparticipant,resultsinpublicofficialsputtingleviesinfrontofvoterstopayfortheservicesoflocalgovernment.Thiscontributestotheneedfor
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educationofboththepublicandelectedofficialsifchampionsintheCRWwantthepoliticalwilltoaddressthethreatstowaterresourcemanagementfromclimatechangeoranyothersource.
Oneparticipantputtheissueofpoliticaldynamicsasastraightforwardissuethatpredictablyimpactswaterresourcemanagement.Utilitieshavecitycouncilsorelectedboardsthatgovernthemand“youareconstantlyteachingyourelectedofficialswhatyoudoandhowyoudoit,andhowweplanourmasterplanningintothefuture,andhowweoutlinetheimprovementswe'regoingtomakeovertime.”Theparticipantwentontonotethatthediscussionsaboutwaterresourcemanagementeventuallyturnbacktofinancialresources,and“whatdoyouchargeforsystemdevelopmentchargesascommunitiesaregrowing.Yougetnewpeopleeveryyear,youjusthavetocontinue[to]educatethem.
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Table 1. Organizational mentions of agents of water resource management in the Clackamas River Watershed (bold indicates interviewee organizations; numbers indicate the number of mentions across the 15 interviews.
Othernotablementionsincludedlocalcities(6),thetimberindustry(2),tribes(2),andtheagriculturalcommunity(1),butdidnotidentifyspecificorganization.
Organizations # of mentions
Local Government ClackamasSoil&WaterConservationDistrict
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ClackamasWaterEnvironmentServices
8
Metro 7ClackamasCountyPlanning 5ClackamasCountySheriff 4ClackamasCountyParksandForests 3ClackCountyRoadMaintenance 3ClackCountyAdministrators 2ClackamasCountyPublicHealth 2ClackamasPesticideProgram 2ClackamasCountyDisasterPlanning 1ClackCountyOfficeofSustainability 1CountyBoardofCommissioners 1ClackamasCountySocialServices 1
Federal Government (16) USForestService-MtHoodNationalForest
USGeologicalService 6EnvironmentalProtectionAgency 4NaturalResourceConservationService 2NationalWeatherService 1FederalEnergyRegulatoryCommission
1
USForestService-PNWResearchStation
1
Intergovernmental Agencies (19) 1
ClackamasRiverWaterProviders 6RegionalWaterConsortium 4Non-GovernmentalOrganizations(42) 2OregonAssociationofCleanWaterAgencies
1
PNWCleanWaterAssociation 1
Organizations # of mentions
Universities (5) OregonStateUniversity 2PortlandStateUniversity 2NorthWillametteExtensionService 1
Non-Governmental Organizations (42) ClackamasRiverBasinCouncil 18ClackamasStewardshipPartners 7ClackamasRiverEnforcement&EcologyWorkgroup
3
RockyMountainElkFoundation 1OregonHuntersAssociation 1ClackamasPartners 1FriendsofTrees 1RiverKeepers 1ArborDayFoundation 1TroutUnlimited 1NWORJetBoatersAssociation 1BARK 1OregonEnvironmentalCouncil 1OregonAssociationofSoilandWaterConservationDistricts
1
OregonWild 1ENRGYKayaking 1NetworkofOregonWatershedCouncils
1
Private Sector Business Organizations (8) PortlandGeneralElectric 8StateGovernment(39)OregonDeptofEnvironmentalQuality
17
OregonDeptofFishandWildlife 6OregonDeptofAgriculture 5OregonDeptofWaterResources 3OregonWatershedEnhancementBoard
3
OregonHealthAuthority 2OregonDeptofStateLands 2OregonDeptofForestry 1
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4. Presenting translatable science to better inform management and policy decisions. “Ideally if we had a better understanding in regards to climate change that might adapt some of the ways
that we look at our water system planning in the future.” Uncertaintywasacommonrefrainacrossinterviews.Forexample,participantstalkedaboutfloodplainandriparianarearegulation.Ononehand,thereisresistancetoenactnewregulationthatwouldprotectfloodplainfunctions,butontheotherhandcurrentlitigationclaimsthattheFederalEmergencyManagementAgency’sfloodinsuranceprogramisviolatingtheEndangeredSpeciesAct,andcouldresultinfederallymandatedfloodplainprotectionatthepotentialexpenseofagriculturalproductivityordevelopment.Inanotherexample,aparticipantnotedthatthecountyiscurrentlydevelopingaproposalforacounty-widesurfacewaterdistricttointegrateplanningandmanagementaroundwaterinacomprehensiveway,whichcouldimpactdevelopmentrules.Inaddition,othersdiscussedmanagementuncertaintyintheupperreachesofthewatershed,whereaNorthwestForestPlanrevisioncouldimpactnationalforestmanagementstartingin2020.
Multipleparticipantsindicatedthatscientificresearch,includingresearchconductedinthisproject,couldcontributetoanunderstandingofhowrobustdifferentmanagementapproachesmaybetouncertainties,includingclimatechange,intheCRW.Severalparticipantsindicatedthatanadaptivemanagementcyclecouldbebeneficial,wheremanagersandresearchcollectivelydevelophypothesesabouttheeffectsofmanagementapproachesthataretestedandusedtorestructurefuturemanagement.Oneparticipantspecificallydiscussedopportunitiestoconnectresearchandmanagement:“Wecoordinate[research],bothinternallyandwithexternalpartners,butitseemslikeifyouthinkofthethreatstowater,there'salotmorecoordinationthatcouldbedoneintermsofthescienceandits[management]application.”Theparticipantwentontosay,“…wearescience-basedorganization,butIstillthinkthatthere'sprobablymoreworkthatcouldaddresstheuncertaintiesandtherealitiesoflandmanagement.”Uncertaintiesinthescienceandpolicylandscapeoflandmanagementweren’ttheonlyissueswithwhichparticipantsgrappled.Urbanwaterusewasanotherdimensionofwaterresourcemanagementthatoneintervieweehighlighted,“unlesswecan…getwaterusedown,wearejustgoingtohavetohavebigger[treatment]plants”withtheirassociatedcostsandwaterdemands.WhenaskedaboutthecapacityofstakeholdersintheCRWtoaddressthethreatstoanduncertaintiesassociatedwithwaterresourcemanagementfromclimatechangeandothersources,avisionoftheCRWasamodelforsustainablewaterresourcemanagementemergedfromseveralparticipants.Asonestated,“Idothinkthatanopportunityexistsforresearch,andthenpromotingtheClackamasasamodel,forhowwe'reabletoaccommodatedevelopmentandgrowth,whileprotectingasourceofdrinkingwater,andthenaturalresources.”
Implications for Clackamas River Watershed Resilience Project OurintentionwastohighlighttheinterestsandconcernssharedbysomeofthemajorstakeholdersinwaterresourcemanagementfortheCRW,aswellastoprovidecontexttothescienceconductedbytheotherresearchteammembers.ThemostcompellingfindingsfromourresearchhaveimplicationsformanagersandplannersintheCRW.First,acrossadiversityofstakeholdersthereexistsadesireforalargerscaleresilienceplanningeffortthatintegratesacrossmunicipal,
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development,agricultural,conservation,andwaterresourcemanagementintereststoaddressthemanyuncertaintiesfacingtheCRWduetodevelopment,climatechange,andotherfactors.Awaterresourceclimateadaptationorresilienceplanningeffortmaybeanimportanttoolforrealizingthatdesire,mobilizingpartnerships,andcoordinatingworkthatleadstomorecollaborationacrossjurisdictionalandthematicboundaries.Second,wefoundthatstakeholdershadrealsubstantiveconcernsaboutandcouldenvisionopportunitiesrelatedtolocallyspecificuncertaintiesininfrastructureandinstitutionsmanagingwaterquantityandquality.Thisfindingisimportantbecauseuniversity-andagency-basedresearchersinengineering,geography,andenvironmentalscienceshavebothknowledgeandmethodsforconductingresearchtounderstandtheseverytypesofuncertainties,andcanproduceinformationthatmayhelpinformdecisionsonthesetopics.Third,wefoundacommondesireformorelocallytranslatedsciencethatcanbeintegratedintolocalpolicyandprograms.Thisfindingisparticularlyimportantforuniversity-andagency-basedresearcherswhoseskillsandknowledgecouldbeincentivizedtofocusonlocally-basedappliedchallengeslikeclimateadaptationandresilienceplanning.Beyondthesebroadimplications,wealsoidentifiedmanymorethematicallyspecificfindings(Appendix1)thatwehopeprovideideasformanagementandresearchthatdirectlyaddressstakeholderconcernsaboutthethreatsfromclimatechangeandotherfutureuncertainties.
Next steps ResultsfromthisresearchareintendedtocaptureacurrentsnapshotoftheinstitutionallandscapeofmanagingcurrentandfuturethreatstowaterresourcesintheCRW.TheseresultswillbeusedtofacilitatecontinueddiscussionaboutclimateadaptationplanningintheCRWandhelpfosterdialoguebetweenthescientificandpolicy/managementcommunities.Tofurtherthisresearchwillrequireadditionalengagementwithanevenbroaderspectrumofstakeholders.Wehopethatthisentryintounderstandingoftheperceivedrisksandvulnerabilities,opportunitiesandbarriers,andstakeholderengagementandpoliticalwilltoaddressclimatechangewillfosterthatcontinueddialogue.Forexample,wewouldproposehostingaseriesofworkshopsinwhichwepresentfindingsfromthisprojecttodifferentgroupsofstakeholdersanddiscusswhatactionsbestbuildontheassetswithinthewatershedtoaddressthevulnerabilitiesandrisksfacedbythewatershed.Theseworkshopswouldaccomplishthedualgoalsoffurtherfacilitatingdialogueandengagementamongstakeholdersandscientists,whilealsoidentifyingdevelopment,landuse,andwaterconservationstrategiesthatarecommonlysupportedacrossdiverseperspectives.Outcomeswouldfacilitatethedevelopment,communication,andimplementationofscience-basedstrategiesforadaptingtotheimpactsofclimatechangebydevelopingstrategiesfocusedonexpectedthreatstowaterqualityandquantity,aswellasnewresearcheffortsinspiredbytheseworkshops.
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Characterizing Precipitation in the Clackamas River Watershed
Research Questions ThepurposeofresearchinganddescribingprecipitationintheClackamasRiverWatershedistobetterunderstandwhatkeyweatherandclimatefeaturesareimportantforwaterqualityandquantityintheClackamasRiverWatershed.Specificallyweaimedtoaddressthefollowingquestion:Whataretheclimatologicalconditionsthatleadtothemostimpactfulwaterquantity,quality,andmanagementevents?
Research Approach Toanswertheoverarchingresearchquestion,wefocusedontwokeycontributorstowaterqualityandquantity:1)Heavyprecipitationandtheassociatedstormsthatproduceitand2)SnowwithintheCRW,whenandhowmuchitaccumulates,whenandhowquicklyitmelts,andhowmuchliquidwaterisstoredinthesnowpack.
Toinvestigateandcharacterizeheavyprecipitationandtheassociatedstormsystemsthatproduceit,wefocusedonthelarge-scaleweatherpatternsthathavehistoricallybeenlinkedtoheavyprecipitationeventsovertheCRW.Bylarge-scaleweatherpatterns,wearereferringtopatternsontheorderof100sofmileswhicharecharacteristicoftypicalfall,winter,andspringstormsinnorthwesternOregon.Themotivationfortakingthisapproachisthatheavyprecipitationeventscanoccuratverylocalscales,especiallyinthecaseofcomplexandinfluentialtopographysuchasintheCRW,andasaresultthesephenomenaaredifficulttoresolveinstate-of-the-artclimatemodelswhichprovidedatapixelsthataretoocoarse.Therefore,ifwecanunderstandtherangeofstormtypesthatdrivethelocalscalerainandsnowextremes(stormtypesarelargeenoughinscaleforclimatemodelstoresolvethem),wecanuseclimatemodelstoprovideinformationonwhetherthetypesofstormsthathistoricallyproducedheavyprecipitationareprojectedtochangeinthefuture.
HeavyprecipitationovertheCRWcanoccurwithavarietyofdifferentweatherpatterns.Inordertounderstandthefullrangeofstormtypes/weatherpatternsthathaveresultedinheavyprecipitationinthepastseveraldecades,wefirstidentifieddayswithextremeprecipitation.Weusedthe90thpercentileof24-hourprecipitationbasedonalldayswithmeasureableprecipitationasthethresholdtodefineaheavyprecipitationday.Wethenidentifiedtheweatherpatternsoneachofthedaysexceedingthatthresholdandusedamachinelearningapproachcalledself-organizingmapstosortandsummarizealloftheweatherpatternsinto12categories.Thisallowedustomakeassociationsbetweendifferentstormtypes(basedonthe12weatherpatterns)andheavyprecipitationovertheCRW.Wethenusedanalgorithmtodeterminewhichextremeprecipitationdayswereassociatedwithatmosphericrivers(narrowbandsofhightransportofwatervaporintheatmosphere).Heavyprecipitationanalysiswasperformedovertheyears1980-2016.
ToinvestigatesnowpackbehaviorintheCRWovertherecentpast,weanalyzedsnowwaterequivalenttrendsandclimatologyattwoSNOTELobservationstationswithinthewatershed.ThesetwostationsarePeavineRidgeandClackamasLake.Snowwaterequivalentistheamountofliquidwatercontainedwithinthesnowpackandisimportantformeasuringtheamountofwateravailable
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formeltintotheClackamasRiver.Wealsofocusedonthe2014-2015wateryear,whichwascharacterizedbyananomaloussnowdrought,toputthishighimpactyearintoperspectivewithrecentandpastobservations.Snowpackanalysiswasperformedovertheyears1982-2016
Findings Our research resulted in four key findings described below:
1. Precipitation climatology
2. Atmospheric Rivers
3. Snowpack Trends
4. Winter 2015 in perspective
1. Precipitation climatology TheCRWreceivesabout83%ofitsannualprecipitationbetweenOctoberandAprilwhileextremeprecipitationeventsaccountfor25%ofallannualaccumulatedprecipitationonaverage.
2. Atmospheric Rivers Atmosphericriversarekeytotheoccurrenceofheavyprecipitation.Theyarepresenton73%ofheavyprecipitationdaysand42%ofdayswithanymeasureableprecipitation.Atmosphericriversmakeupthelargestproportionofheavyprecipitationdaysduringthefall(52%)andwinter(49%).Furthermore,thegeographicorientationoftheatmosphericriverisimportationfordeterminingwhethertheheaviestprecipitationfallsovertheCRWorelsewhere.Becauseatmosphericriversareverynarrowbandsofhighwatercontentinthelowerlevelsoftheatmosphere,theanglewithwhichtheatmosphericriverimpactstopographyisimportantforhowmuchrainorsnowfallsovertheCRW.Itistheliftofairprovidedbythemountainsthatcausesthemoistureintheatmosphericrivertocooldownandcondenseoutasprecipitation.IftheatmosphericriverinterceptstheCascadesatamoreperpendicularorientation,heavierrainorsnowwillfallthanifitimpactstheCascadesatalowerangle.ThepositionandorientationoftheatmosphericriverisalsoimportantfordeterminingwhethermostoftheprecipitationfallsasrainorsnowoverthehigherelevationsoftheCRW.Morespecifically,iftheatmosphericrivercoreislocatedalittletothenorthoftheCRW,itismorelikelythatheavyprecipitationwillfallasrain,whereasiftheatmosphericriveriscenteredtothesouthoftheCRWprecipitationismorelikelytofallassnow.Thisisbecausetheatmosphericriveritselfisoftenassociatedwithasurfacefront,whichmarkstheboundarybetweencoolerairfromthenorthandwarmerairfromthesouth.
3. Snowpack trends Since1982,therehasbeenadecreasingtrendinthetimefrompeaksnowwaterequivalenttosnowdisappearanceatPeavineRidge.Inotherwords,snowpackismeltingfastertodaythanitdidinthepast,howeverthereisconsiderableyear-to-yearvariabilityinthelengthofthesnowpackseason.ThistrendisstatisticallysignificantatPeavineRidgeonly.ClackamasLakedoesnotexhibitastatisticallysignificanttrend.ThereisnostatisticallysignificanttrendinApril1stsnowwater
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equivalentateitherstation.ThisallsuggeststhatclimatechangehasnothadamajorimpactonsnowpackintheCRWtodate.
4. Winter 2015 in perspective Thewinterof2015wasaveryunusualyearregardingsnowpackintheCRW,however2015didnotstandoutasparticularlyunusualasfarashowlowthepeaksnowwaterequivalentwasobservedfortheseason.Thismeansthatmanyyearshadsimilarlylowpeaksnowpackasmeasuredbytheamountofwaterstoredinthesnowpackas2015.2015standsout,however,ashavinganunusuallylownumberofsnowcovereddays.ClackamasLakeandPeavineRidgehad63and60daysofsnowcoverrespectivelywhichiscomparedtoalongtermaverageof160daysofsnowcover.ThiswasprimarilyduetoanunusuallylargeproportionofprecipitationfallingasraininsteadofsnowduringWinter2015.Whilefutureclimatewarmingwilllikelyleadtoashortersnowcoverseasonanddecreasedspringsnowwaterequivalent,2015wasnotconsistentwithrecentobservedtrendsandforthecurrentclimateshouldbeviewedasanoutlier.Inotherwords,2015wasnota“newnormal,”althoughitislikelythataswarmingcontinuesintothemid-21stcentury,yearslike2015willstarttobecomemorecommon.
Implications for Clackamas River Watershed Resilience Project Thisresearchfocusesprimarilyonwhathappenstowaterbeforeitentersthegroundwaterandriversystem.Byfocusingonthemeteorologythatdrivesrainfall,snowfall,changesinwatercontentwithinthesnowpack,andtheintensityofeachofthese,ourresearchprovidesafoundationforafirstorderlookatwhatclimatechangemaymeanforwaterqualityandquantityintheCRW.Changesintheatmospherewilllargelydrivechangesinotherparametersthattheotherresearchersareassessingmakingthisresearchstepcriticalforassessmentofresiliencytofutureclimatechangeimpacts.
Next Steps FuturequestionswillfocusonprovidinginformationaboutclimatechangeandhowitwillaffectwaterqualityandquantityintheCRWinthecomingdecades.Wewillleverageourfindingsfromthecurrentresearchphasetodriveourquestionsaboutfuturechange.Toanswerquestionsaboutclimatechangewewilluseoutputfromalargesuiteofclimatemodelsimulationsthathavebeenproducedatmodelingcentersaroundtheworldandprovidedfreetotheresearchcommunityviatheweb.Allfutureinformationisthereforebasedonclimatemodel“projections”andthisisthetermwewillusetorefertofutureclimateinformation.
1. IsthereaprojectedchangeintheseasonalityofheavyprecipitationovertheCRW?2. Aretheoccurrenceorseasonalityofatmosphericriversprojectedtochange?Isthelocation
andorientationofatmosphericriversprojectedtochangeinrelationtotheCRW?3. Aretheweatherpatterns/stormtypesthathavehistoricallybeenassociatedwithheavy
precipitationeventsprojectedtochangeinfrequency,orientation,ormagnitude?4. CanweprojectchangesinfreezinglevelovertheCRWinausefulway,andifso,canwe
measurechangesintheproportionofprecipitationfallingasrainversussnowovertheCRW?
5. HowisextremeheatprojectedtochangeovertheCRW?
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Drivers of Water Quality in the Clackamas River Watershed
Research Questions Anticipatedchangesinextremeprecipitationandstreamflowpatternsduringrainyseasonsunderclimatechangemayaffecttimingandmagnitudeofhighturbidityoccurrence—anindicatorofwaterquality.Anincreaseinturbiditylevelassociatedwithprojectedclimatechangecanthreatendrinkingwaterprovidersandincreasethecostanddifficultytomeetfederaldrinkingwaterstandards.Inordertounderstandhowturbiditymightchangeasaresultofchangesinprecipitation,welookedatwhatcurrentlydriveturbidityintheregion.Thequestionsweaskedare:(1)Whatistheobservedtrendandrelationshipbetweenturbidity,discharge,andprecipitationbasedonempiricaldata?(2)Howdoesthetimingofpeakturbiditydifferacrossthegaugingstationsandseasons?Doesprecipitationintensityimpactthelagtimebetweendischargeandturbiditypeak?(3)Howcloselyispeakturbidityrelatedtodischargeandprecipitation?Canweusethelattertwotopredictturbiditybeforeastorminatimelyefficientmanner?(4)Howwasturbidityaffectedbyclimateduringawetyear(2017),adryyear(2015),andanaverageyear(2013)?
Research Approach Thisstudyusedacombinationofliteraturereview,constructionofanempiricaldataset,andhistoricaltrendstatisticalanalysistocharacterizetherelationshipbetweenhydroclimateandwaterquality.Themethodsusedtounderstandeachresearchquestionaredescribedbelow:
Todescribethetrendandrelationshipbetweenturbidity,dischargeandprecipitation,weuseddatafromthreeClackamasRivergaugestations.Wecharacterizedextremeprecipitationeventsbydischargeexceedanceofover20%ofaveragemonthlyflowacrossthreegaugestationsontheClackamasRiver.Wefocusedonextremeprecipitationeventsbecausetheyhavehistoricallybeenlinkedtoelevateddischargeandturbiditylevels.Webuiltadatasetcomposedofprecipitation,streamflow,turbidity,andtreatmentplantintakewaterqualityvaluesandoperationoftreatment.Usingthisdataset,weconductedaseriesofstatisticaltestsonaten-yearperiodfrom2008-2017andcorrelationbetweenpeakturbidityeventsandatmosphericriverpresence.
Inordertounderstandmoreaboutwhatdrivesthetimingofturbidity,wemeasuredthelagbetweenpeakturbidityandpeakdischarge.Thetimingofturbiditypeakeventscanvarybytimeandspace.Toexaminewhetherlandcovertypesandseasonalityhadimpactsontimingandlagbetweenpeakturbidityandpeakdischarge,weusedtheNationalLandCoverDatasettoexaminelandcovertypefromaruraltourbangradientacrossthreestudiedstationsontheClackamasRiver.Wealsodividedourconstructeddatasetbyearly,mid,andlateprecipitationseasontoexaminetemporalvariability.Lastly,thelagtimebetweenturbiditypeakanddischargepeakswascalculatedandassociatedwithprecipitationpatterns,becausethetimingofturbiditypeakscaninformusabouttheproximityofsedimentsthatarebeingeroded.
Acorrelationandregressionmodelwasusedtoexaminetherelationshipbetweenturbidityanddischargeonmultipletimescales,suchasevent,season,andyear.Temporaldependenceofelevatedturbiditylevelswascloselyexaminedtoforecasteventandseasonalforecastofturbidityexceedance,whichcanprovideadditionalinformationformanagementandplanningpurposesforwatertreatmentplantsintheCRW.
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Finally,wecomparedawetanddryyearturbiditytrends.ToexaminevulnerabilitiesoftheCRWtoextremeevents,welookedatannualprecipitationanddischargeaveragebetween2008and2017todeterminethewettest,driest,andanaverageyear.Wethentriedtorelatetheclimaticconditionsoftheseyearstotheturbiditybehaviorsthatoccurredinthoseyears.Thepurposeofthisresearchquestionistoshowstakeholdersthatextremelywetanddryyearscausedbyvariabilityinclimatechangecangreatlyimpactthefrequencyandmagnitudeofhighturbiditylevels.
Findings
Historical trends of Turbidity Thenumberofdaysinayearwheretheturbiditylevelexceeded10FNUattheNCCWCtreatmentplantintakeisstronglyassociatedwiththenumberofdayswithintenseprecipitation(>1inchin3days)andannualaveragedischarge.Morethan80%ofhighturbidityeventsoccurredbetweenNovemberandMarchinthepasttenyears.Elevatedturbiditylevelsarestronglyassociatedwithincreaseddischargevalues.Approximately60%ofdischargeandturbiditypeaksdatesfellwithinextremeprecipitationeventstypeswhichshowedahighpresenceofatmosphericriverevents.ThisfindingsupportsourexpectationthatatmosphericriveroccurrenceinthePacificNorthwestislikelythecauseofmostextremeprecipitationeventsandelevatedlevelsofdischargeandturbidityinthelowerClackamasRiverWatershed.Basedonanobservedrelationshipbetweenstreamflow,turbidity,andprecipitation,weexpectanincreaseintreatmentsystemvulnerabilitytoclimate-relatedhighturbidityevents.
Timing of Peak Turbidity Weobservedapatternofturbiditypeakingsoonerbeforedischargeduringastormeventasthelandcovergradientchangesfromforested/ruraltourbanarea.TurbidityvaluestendtopeakbeforedischargeatOregonCity,whiledischargepeaksbeforeturbidityforthesamestormevent.MoreimpervioussurfacesanddevelopmentsnearOregonCityarelikelythecauseoftransportingsedimentsmorequicklytowaterbodies.EstacadaandThreeLynxarelocatedfartherupstreamwithmoreforestedlandcoverandtheadditionalofafewhydroelectricdams,whichcanslowdownthetransportofsedimentsduringstorms.However,resultsfromourfindingsshowedafewinstanceswheretheturbiditypeaktimeandlagdifferdrasticallyinOregonCity,butweobservednostatisticallysignificantcorrelationwithprecipitationintensityorseasonality.Wecanconcludethatinadditiontometeorologicaldrivers,landscapesandbasingeomorphologyplaysaroleinregulatingsedimentsupplyandturbiditylevelsaswell,butnotenoughdata(soilmoisture)areavailableforfurtherinvestigation.UrbanizationislikelythecauseofturbidityreachingpeakvaluesfasterthandischargeduringstormsinOregonCity.InstallingadditionalturbidityanddischargemonitoringbetweenOregonCityandEstacadaandtributariesalongtheClackamasRivermaybeusefulinpredictingturbidityvaluesquickerpriororduringastorm.
Turbidity prediction by precipitation and discharge Althoughwehavefoundastatisticallysignificantpositivecorrelationbetweeneventpeakturbidityandpeakdischarge,therelationshipisnon-linear.Turbiditylevelincreasesexponentiallywithdischarge,whiledischargehasapositivenonlinearcorrelationwithcumulativeprecipitation.IfweprojectextremeprecipitationtooccuratahighermagnitudeinthePacificNorthwest,turbidity
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levelsduringtheseeventsmayincreaseatamuchfasterratethanweexpect.Earlyandlateseasonprecipitationeventsoccurringinearlywinter,andlatespringshowedthestrongestpositivecorrelationtoturbiditypeaks.Asseasonalclimateforecastsbecomemoreaccurateandabletocalculatetheprobabilityofprecipitationtobeabove-normal,near-normal,orbelow-normal,prospectsofturbidityforecastscanbeenhancedbyseasonalprecipitationforecast.FutureinvestigationcanconsidercalculatingtheturbidityexceedancelikelihoodbasedonstreamflowscenariosandprecipitationforecastsbasedonanapproachusedbyTowler(2010)illustratedbelow.
Figure 1. Towler’s Approach to Calculating Turbidity Exceedance
Sensitivity to extreme years Usingannualaveragedischargevalues,weidentifiedtheyear2015toberepresentativeofatypicaldryyear,2017asatypicalwetyear,and2013asanormalyear.Duringthedryyearannualaverageturbiditylevelsdroppedaswellasthenumberofdayswhereturbidityexceeded10FNUattheNCCWStreatmentplant.Theyear2017wasanextremelywetyearwith13extremeprecipitationeventsthathadmorethan20%exceedanceofmonthlyaverageflow.Wealsosawahighnumberofdayswhereturbidityexceeded10FNUatthewatertreatmentplant,andahigherannualmeanofdailyturbiditymaximum.2015isnotatypicalyear,butitdidnothaveanegativeimpactonturbiditylevels,whereas2017asanextremelywetyearthatincreasedturbiditylevelsandloweredwaterqualityinthewinterseason.Ifyearslike2017arebecomingmorecommoninthefuture,thenwewillexpectmoredayswhenturbiditylevelsexceed10FNU,whichcanincreasestressondrinkingwatertreatments.Increasedannualaverageairtemperaturedidnotcontributetoturbiditypeaks,butcouldcausemoreprecipitationinthefallandwintertooccurasraininsteadofsnow,whichinturnincreaseflow.Inaddition,highertemperaturescanalsoshiftthetimingofsnowpackrunofftoearlyspring,whichcanincreasebaseflowinspringandincreasethelikelihoodofhigherturbidityvaluesduringstorms.Thisrelationshiphasnotbeenobservedinthepast,butcanbehighlypossibleifthePacificNorthwestexperiencemorerapidairtemperaturerise.
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Table 2. Annual average daily discharge and maximum turbidity in CRW, 2009-2017
Implications for Clackamas River Watershed Resilience Project Ourfindingscouldinformwatershedmanagersanddrinkingwaterprovidershowbesttomanagelandsandtreatmentplantsduringdifferentstormeventsovertime.Additionally,theresultsofothersections(e.g.,changesinflowandfireactivities)couldhavedirectimpactontheturbiditylevels.
Next Steps Thesecondphaseoftheprojectwillinvestigatethepotentialshiftsinstreamflowandsedimentloadsunderdifferentfutureclimateprojectionsinthe21stcentury.Togetherwiththeoutputsofdownscaledgriddedclimatedata,wewillrunaprocess-basedhydrologicmodel,SWAT(Soil-WaterAssessmentTool)tosimulatefuturechangesinhydrologyandwaterquality.Specificquestionsareasfollows.
1. Howwillshiftsinprecipitationandtemperatureregimesimpactseasonaldischarge,turbidity,andsummerstreamtemperature?Whataretheprobabilitiesandrangeoftheseshifts?Whatcombinationsofhydrometeorologicalevents(e.g.,prolongeddrydaysfollowedbyheavyrainfallevents)arelikelytoinducehighturbidityevents?
2. Whatistheinterannualvariabilityofturbiditybasedondischarge?Howdoestherelationshipbetweendischargeandturbidityvarybetweendryvs.wetvs.normalyears?
3. Howcanweuseregionalandglobalclimatemodelstopredictseasonalprecipitationandturbidityexceedancelevels?
4. Wherearehotspotsofhighpotentialsoilerosion,whattypesofcurrentlandcoveraswellaslandcoverchangearemostresponsibleforhigherosionpotential?
Estacada Oregon City NCCWC
Turbidity
# of Storms Identified
Water Year
Annual Mean Discharge
Annual Mean of Daily Turbidity Max
Annual Mean Discharge
Annual Mean of Daily Turbidity Max
# of Days > 10 FNU
2009 2727 7.64 3274 10.72 23 62010 2689 5.93 3113 5.05 14 62011 3360 6.23 4139 12.34 45 32012 3253 10.46 4159 13.56 28 82013 2689 5.28 3305 6.17 15 82014 2880 6.37 3525 6.58 26 112015 2063 2.88 2483 4.95 11 52016 2723 2.95 3460 6.44 16 62017 3343 2.97 4394 7.41 30 13
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Flow Extremes in the Clackamas River Watershed
Research Questions Changesinprecipitation,averageseasonaltemperaturesandsealevelrisemayhaveanimpactonseasonalflowpatternsandwaterlevels,potentiallyleadingtoanincreaseinfloodhazard.Twoprimaryquestionswereconsidered:(1)CanweseesignificantchangesinflowpatternsoverthepasthundredyearsfromtheflowrecordfortheClackamasRiver?(2)WillthelikelihoodoffloodingintheTri-CityWastewaterTreatmentPlantincreasewithincreasedsealevelriseand/orincreasesinpeakdischargeduringafloodevent?
Research Approach Toexaminelong-termchangesinriverflowthatmaybeattributabletoclimatechangeordevelopment,statisticalstudieswereperformedonthemorethan100-yearlongClackamasRiverflowdatasetatEstacada(stationnumber14210000)availablefromtheUSGS.Inordertoevaluatehistoricalandmodernconditions,thedatawasseparatedintotwosets,withthefirst40yearsrepresentingthehistoricaltimeperiodandthelast50yearsrepresentingthemoderntimeperiod.Theseperiodswerethenexaminedseparatelytoseeifthereweresignificantdifferencesintherecords.AGeneralizedExtremeValuefunctionwasusedtoestimatereturnperiodmagnitudes,whileamonthlyhydrographwasproducedtoexaminepossiblechangesinseasonalflowpatterns.
TodeterminethelikelihoodofincreasedfloodingatthemouthoftheClackamasduetosea-levelriseandalteredprecipitation,aDelft3dFMhydrodynamicmodelwasdevelopedfromthePacificOceantothehead-of-tidesoftheWillamette,Columbia,andClackamasRivers.BasedoffofpreviousworkfortheCityofPortland,themodelwasmodifiedtoincludethebathymetryoftheClackamasRivertotheendoftidalintrusionneartheI-205Bridge.Wethenmodeledthe1996WillametteValleywinterflood,whichfloodedtheTri-CityWastewaterPlantandthedelta-regionoftheClackamasRiver.Inordertosimulatetheeffectofanincreaseinsealevel,weincreasedthebase-heightoftheoceanby0.6and1.5m,basedontheexpectedrangeofsea-levelrisepredictedforthePacificNorthwestbytheyear2100bytheNationalResearchCouncil(2012).Additionalscenarioswererunwitha10%increaseinrunoff,followingpeer-reviewedliteraturewhichsuggesteda0-20%increaseinprecipitationrun-offinfutureclimatescenarios(Najafi&Moradkhani2015).
Findings
Changes in Flow Patterns Overall,evaluationofClackamasRiverflowssuggeststhatannuallyaveragedflowincreasedby7%betweenthe1908-1948and1967-2017periods.Atthesametime,extremeflowsabove1000m3/shavebecomelesscommon,goingfromaprobabilityof.0894inanygivenyearhistorically,toaprobabilityof.0696inthemodernperiod.Riverflowappearstohaveshiftedtoamorerain-drivensystem,withgreaterwinterflowsandlesssnow-meltdrivenflows,followingtrendsalsoobservedintheColumbiaRiver(Naik&Jay2005):inDecember,flowsincreasedby17%,whileJuneflowsdecreasedby16%.Ashifttoalargerwinterhydrographbutlesssummertimeflow
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couldbeasignificantconcern,ifcombinedwithwarmersummersandlargersummertimewaterdemand(duetodevelopment)intheCRW.
Flood Risk at the Tri-City Water Treatment Plant Modelscenariossuggestthatthesewagetreatmentplantisvulnerabletoincreasedfloodriskfrombothsea-levelriseandincreasedrun-offinboththeClackamas,Willamette,andColumbiaRiverwatersheds.Modelresultsfoundthatwiththemoderate(B2)andhigh(A2)sealevelriseprojectionscenarioscausedanincreaseinthemodeledfloodheightsduringa1996-typeeventby0.16mand.44mrespectively.Whena10%increaseinrunoffwasincluded,thewaterlevelsatthemouthoftheClackamasincreasedby.78mintheB2scenarioand.98mintheA2scenario,respectively.TheA2scenarioisdescribedbytheIPCCasaworldmoredivided,withalotofregionaleconomicandpopulationgrowthandafocusontheeconomyovertheenvironment.TheB2scenarioalsodescribesafragmentedplanetwithoutlargescaleglobalcollaborations,butonethatdoesfocusonreducingemissionsratherthanjusteconomicgrowth.Interestingly,waterlevelsatthemouthoftheClackamasdependontheWillamettebutalsoontheColumbiaRiverflow,whichcauseswatertoback-uptoPortlandandfurtherupstream.Asaresult,managementdecisionsmadeonotherwatershedssignificantlyinfluencerisk,inadditiontosea-levelrise.ThemodeledincreaseinfloodriskwouldlikelyincreasethelikelihoodofdamagetotheTri-citysewageplant,possiblyincreasethetimeofserviceinterruption,andpotentiallycausewaterqualityproblems.
Table 3: Flooding increases under sea level rise and runoff increase scenarios SeaLevelRiseScenario NoSLR(0m) B2(0.6m) A2(1.5m)
NoRunoffIncrease 0.16m 0.44m
10%RunoffIncrease 0.66m 0.78m 0.98m
Implications for Clackamas River Watershed Resilience Project Theshiftfoundinseasonalflowpatternsisconsistentwithobservationsofincreasinglydrysummersandlesssnowinthewatershed,whichcouldincreasefireriskinthewatershed.Withmorewinterflows,therecouldalsobeanincreaseinsedimenttransportduringthewintermonths.Thelowerflowsinsummercouldalsocauseissuesforwatermanagement,influencingwatertemperaturesandcausingtrade-offsbetweenenvironmentalandregulatoryneeds(e.g.,theneedsofsalmonforhighersummerflows)andconsumerneeds(highersummerwaterdemands)thatmayoccurinthefuture.
Next Steps Futureareasofinvestigationmayconsider:
1. Giventhechangesoverthelast100yearsinflowseasonalityandextremeevents,whatcanbeprojectedforfuturechangesintheClackamasRiver?
2. Inafuturescenario,whatisthesmallestsizefloodthatwouldfloodtheTri-Citywastewaterplant?Howlikelywouldthisfloodbe?
3. Howdoalteredflowpatternsaffectwatertemperatureandturbidity
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Fire Risk in the Clackamas River Watershed
Research Question and Approach It’slikelythatclimatechangeanddevelopmentwillhaveanimpactonfireintheClackamasRiverregion.Tomorefullyunderstandwhatthismaymeanforwaterquantityintheregion,researchers,wesoughttounderstandtherelationshipbetweenwaterandfireintheregion.Theprimaryresearchquestionsweaskedwere(1)WhatarethemainclimaticdriversoffireactivityintheCRWasawhole?(2)Whatistheimpactoffireonwaterquantitypriortoandfollowingfireevents?Themotivationforthesequestionscamefrombothprocess-basedsimulationsandstatisticalmodelingefforts,whichcoincideinthattheareaonthewesternCascademountains,includingtheCRW,willexperiencearapidtoveryrapidincreaseinfireactivitybytheendofthecentury.
Research Approach Forbothquestion1and2.,wereliedonclimaticandhydrologicparametersattheEstacadaweatherandgaugestationsandalsofromgriddedhighresolutionproducts(i.e.PRISM)duringallrecordedfireyearsduringperiodsintherecordswithrobustdata.Conditionsintheparametersduringeachofthefireyearswereaggregatedandcomparedagainstparameteraggregates(orcomposites)duringnon-fireyearsusingSuperimposedEpochAnalyses—anapproachcommonlyusedinclimate-firesciencesandthatreliesonMonteCarlosimulationtoidentifysignificantanomalieswhencomparedtomeanconditions.Analyseswereconductedtotestfordisproportionallyhighorlowvaluesoftheparametersduringfireyears(incomparisontonon-fireyears)duringdayspriorto,duringandfollowingthedaywhenfireeventsintheCRWwerefirstreported.Specialattentionwaspaidtodetectanomaliesordeparturesasfarinadvancepriortofireeventstoaidmanagerswithbetterpreparedness.
Findings
Fire activity is driven by high drought conditions Fromalleightclimaticparametersanalyzed,itwasfoundthatfireactivityintheCRWisprimarilydrivenbydisproportionallyhighdroughtconditions(i.e.dryandwarmconditions)duringthesummerofthefireevent(i.e.dryconditionsfrompreviousyearswerenotsignificant).Thisdryingeffectwasobserveduptoca.2monthspriortothedate(i.e.August)whenmostignitionsthatbecamewildfireswerefirstrecordedintheCRW.Theclimaticparameterthatreportedthehighest(i.e.mostusefulformanager)differencebetweenfireyearsandnon-fireyearswastheVaporPressureDeficit(VPD),whichmeasureshoweasilymoistureflowsbetweenthesoilandvegetationandtheatmosphere;inotherwords,how‘thirsty’theatmosphereis.
Peak Vapor Pressure Deficit and Fire Incontrasttonon-fireyears,duringfireyearsVPDpeaksinAugustrightabout1-2daysbeforethestartofwildfires.ThispeakinVPD(andfirestartingdate)isroughly3weekslaterinthesummercomparedtothetimingoftheVPDpeakduringnon-fireyears.Basedonthis,werecommendthatmanagerscarefullytrackthebehaviorofVPDthroughoutthesummer,especiallyAugust,whenacontinuouslyrisingVPDpeaksroughlyaroundmidAugust.
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River Discharge and Fire Ingeneral,meandailydischargeintheCRWattheEstacadastationdeclinesduringsummerstosignificantlybelowmeanannuallevelssometimeinJuneandonlyrecoversinlateSeptember/earlyOctober.Itwasfoundthatmeandailydischargeduringfireyearsreachessignificantlybelow-meanlevelsroughly7daysearlierthanduringnon-fireyears.Instead,almostnodifferencewasfoundbetweenthetimingofpost-summermeandailydischargerecoverybetweenfireandnon-fireyears;i.e.themaindifferenceintermsofmeandailydischargeduringfireyears(incomparisontonon-fireyears)arepriortoandnotfollowingfires.
Implications for Clackamas River Watershed Resilience Project AllresearchonfireconfirmsthatfireactivityisincreasingacrosstheWestanditwillcontinuetoincrease.UnderstandingwhatdrivesfireactivityatthescaleoftheCRWisaparamountneed.IntermsoftheFinding2,managerscanuseourlessonstoprepareforseasonswithhighervs.lowerfireprobability.Forinstance,ifVPDdoesnotpeakinJunenorJuly,andcontinuestoriseinearlyAugust,thereisanincreasedprobabilityofignitionstosuccessfullyspread,asfuelshavebeenandcontinuetodryoverthespringandsummer.Instead,ifVPDpeaksbeforeAugustanddeclinessteadilyduringearly-midAugust,itislesslikelythatignitionsinthewesternCascademountainswillspread,asfuelsmightnotbeprimeforrapidfirespread.Finding3highlightsandfurthersupporttheuseofavailablemetricsbymanagerstodeterminesummerswithhigherfirerisksthanothers.Itturnedoutthatmanagerscouldalsousewaterdischargedeclinetimingtopredictyearswithhigherfireprobability.Instead,andleavingimpactsonwaterqualityout,itseemsthattherecoveryindischargeto“normal”levelsoccursalmostatthesametime,regardlessoffireoccurrence.
Next Steps OurinitialanalysisprovidedsomeinformationabouttherelationshipbetweenfireandwaterintheCRW,fornextstepswewillconsiderhowthesedriversmaychangewithclimatechange,howclimatechangescenariosmayimpacttheriskoffireintheWild-UrbanInterface(wherecommunitiesarelocated),andhowfireanddroughtimpactwaterquality.
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Appendix A – Qualitative Interview Themes
Thefollowingincludesthemesandquotationsfrominterviews(n=18)conductedwithnaturalresourcemanagersandplannersaboutwatershedresilienceintheClackamasRiverWatershed.Open-endedinterviewswereconductedbetweenOctober2017–January2018.Generaltopicscoveredineachinterviewfocusedonthefollowing:
A. ThreatstowatershedresilienceB. AdaptationandresponsestowatershedresiliencethreatsC. StakeholdersinClackamaswatershedresilience
Inthisappendixwepresentbothtopicalthemesthatemergedfromtheinterviews(regardlessofhowcommonoruncommontheywere),andwhereappropriatequotationsthatprovidecontextanddepthtothetypesofresponsesgiven.
A.Threats
1.WaterQuality
Biggestconcerns–humanhealthandfishhealth
Watertemperature
Habitatdegradation
Contaminants
Algae
Algaecombinedwithpre-chlorinationinsomeintakeplants
Bacteriafromfailedsepticsystems
Bacteriafromhumanwaste-campingnearwater,recreationonwater
Bacteriafromlivestock,horses,manure
Chlorineinlargeholdingpondsatnurseries-floodingduringbigrainevents
Disinfectionbyproductsfromchlorine-combinedwithorganics-canbecancercausing
Fuelandoilspills
Garbage/pollutionfromcampingandrecreationandhomelessness
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Hazmatspills
Hydrocarbonrunofffromroads
Industrialrunoff
Lackofdilutionofcontaminantsinthewaterfromhotter,dryersummerswithlesswintersnowpack
Organics
Othergarbagedumping-includingasbestoswasteproductsfromconstructionsites
Personalcareproducts(notregulatedfordrinkingwater)
Pesticides-nonpointsourcemovement-rainwater,stormwater,leaching,legacypesticides
Pharmaceuticals
PotentialfutureofanapprovedgaspipelineintheCRB
Potentialoffutureuseoffireretardant-phosphorus-contributingtoalgaeblooms
Potentialthreatofterrorismtargetedatdrinkingwatersystems
Residentialfertilizersandotherchemicals
Roadsidespraying
Smallamounts-butcumulativeimpactscanbeunknown
TreatedwastewaterreleasesdirectlytotheClackamasinEstacada,andintothetributaryTickleCreek
Variouscontaminantsfromstormwaterrunoff-metals,toxics
Sediment/Turbidity-hardtofilterdrinkingwater
Badlyplannedlogging
Erosionfromroads
Forestfires
Landslides
Soilerosionfromnurseriesandfarms
Soilerosionfromremovalofstreamvegetation
2.WaterQuantity
Scarcity/Insufficientflow:
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Climate-hotter,driersummers,lesssnowpack,amplificationofdrought
Competingneedsandinterests-drinkingwater,fishhabitat,irrigation(residentialandagriculture),recreation,industry
Curtailmentonnewwaterpermits
Curtailmentplansdon’ttriggerunlessthereisadroughtdeclarationbythegovernor-otherwiseitisvoluntary.
Dependentononesource.Alternativewatersupplyscenarios–likehookinguptoPortland’ssystem-arereallyexpensive.
Fish-notenoughwatertopushthemdownstream,notenoughoxygeninthewater,notenoughfeedingringsdownstream,notenoughstoredhabitat.
Lackofdilutioninwastestream(moreconcentration)ishardertotreat.I.e.“dilutionsometimesisasolutiontopollution”
Lackofgroundwaterusemonitoring
Lotsofimpoundmentsandponds,smallerdamsonunnamedcreeks-impactflowandgroundwaterbaseflow
Lowflowsimpactrecreationinsummermonths
Mostwaterprovidersmakemostoftheirmoneyinthesummermonthswhenuseishighest,difficulttocommunicatecurtailmentwhenincomeisneededtocoverexpenses.
Populationgrowth-waterdistrictsandagenciesaremandatedtoprovidedrinkingwaterregardlessofpopulationgrowth
Timingofprecipitationchangingseasonally,impactswateravailabilityforirrigation
Waterreuseforcropsdoesn’tallowforrechargeofgroundwater
Flooding:
Balanceofpropertyowners’rightsandmaintainingfloodplainsforprotectionagainstflooding
Climate-rainonsnoweventsleadingtoflooding
Futuresealevelrise,combinedwithhightidesandrainevents/snowmelt–riskforflooding
Highimpactrainfalleventslinkedtoatmosphericriverspushedwatertreatmentplantstothelimitandcausedflooding.
HistoricalfloodsintheCRBhavechangedthelandscape–1964,1996,2008,2009,2011.
Smalldegreesofdifferenceintheamountofprecipitationcanleadto“hellaciousbigfloods”versusslowflowfromsnowmelt,whichmakesforunevenseasonalenergygenerationatthedams-producinglesspower,leadingtolessmoneytoinvestinthingslikefishprotection
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3.Development/Urbanization/PopulationGrowth
Currentinfrastructurecannothandle“whatiscomingdownthepike”.“Withmoreandmorepeoplemovinghereandmoreandmoredevelopmentinourserviceareacombinedwithhigherimpactrainfallevents,there'salotofthingsthatarecomingatusthatwehavetobeabletohandle,asautility.”
HillyterrainofthedevelopmentinHappyValleydoesn’tallowforalotofinfiltration.
Increasedimpervioussurfacesleadstoincreased“flashiness”ofthesystem.“Asyoudevelopandyouhavemoreimperviousareaandyouhavelessstormwatertreatment,you'refundamentallyalteringthewatershed'sown,what'stheword,sortofresilience.So,it'sunquestionablypartoftheequationandpartofthepuzzle,butIthinkitneedstobeaddressedmoreattheleveloftheentitiesthatareresponsibleforpermittingthatdevelopment.”
Increasedpopulationresultsinincreaseduseofrecreationintheupperwatershed,overwhelmingandchallengingthesystem.CRB“lovedtodeath”.
Increasedruralgrowthanticipatedinthefuture-allwillbeonsepticsystems
MuchoftheUrbanReservesfortheMetroUrbanGrowthBoundaryareintheCRB
Needtoexpandstormwaterserviceswithgrowingpopulation
Poorfloodplainconnectivity
Population“boom”intheCRB.Lotsofnewconstructionisleadingtoimpermeablesurfaces
Potentialtohaveclimaterefugeesmovingtotheareainthefuture
Urbanizationisathreattofishpassage.“Youcan’tjustkeepaddingtensofthousandsofpeopleayearintoabasinandnothaveithavesomeeffect.”
“Mybiggestconcernisthatdevelopmentsimplywillovertakeanyabilityforrestorationorprotectiontokeepfishpersisting.”
Urbanizedareashavevisibleadverseeffectonwaterquality
Wastewatertreatmentplants,necessarytocleanandreleasewaterinurbanizedareas,canhaveoverflowsduringpeakflowevents,ordischargeofchlorinethatcanleadtofishkills.
Watershortageforincreasingpopulation
Wideningandaddingroadscontributestoincreasedpollutionrunoffintowaterways
4.ClimateChange
Biggerstormeventsimpactingthedaminfrastructure
Biggerstormscouldcausebigger“firstflush”intostreams,withpollutantslikeagriculturalrunoff,turbidity,metalsandmore.
Changeinfrequencyandintensityofevents,combinedwithlandusechange
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Changingsummerweatherpatterns-hotter,drierforlongerlengthsoftime
Climatechangeimpactingwatersupply,exasperatingsummerdroughts
Climatechangeimpactsonoceanhabitatforfish(importanttofishrunsintheClackamas)
Climatechangeuncertaintyprohibitsaccuratelongtermplanningforinfrastructureandadaptation
ClimaterefugeesmovingtotheCRB,whichwillhavemorewaterthanotherregions
Drinkingwateravailabilityisaconcern
Extremeweatherinthepasthasrequiredcompletecampfirebansinrecreationareas
Highimpactrainfallevents,concernsovertoomuchwaterintooshortaperiodoftime.Overwhelmwastewatertreatmentinfrastructure.
Impactsonmanagementactivities-howtobuildresilienceintothelandscape
Increaseindevelopmentandimpervioussurfacecombinedwiththepotentialofmorestormsimpactscleanwater.
Increasepotentialforblue-greenalgaeblooms.
Lessresilientforestislessabletofendoffmountainpinebeetle
Lesssnowpack,lowflowinthesummermonths.Impactsrecreation,temperature,concentrationofwastestreamflow,drinkingwateravailability,irrigationwateravailability
Potentialincreaseinfrequencyofatmosphericriverrainfallevents,combinedwithwarmingweatherglobally.
Sealevelrise,tidalimpactstotheClackamasRiverandriskstowastewaterinfrastructure
Thecountydoesnotcurrentlyhaveaclimateactionplan
Timingofprecipitationimpactsagriculturalcommunityandirrigationneeds,needtochangefarmingpractices.
Wildfireriskassociatedwithachangingclimate
5.OtherThreatstoWaterResources
“Wemightevenaddonemorerisktheretoyourlist,andthatistheunderfundingofourfederallandmanagersdealingwithforestservice.Thoseguyshaveaheroicandalmostimpossibletaskinaworldthatstilltreatstheirbudgetsasbeingbasedontheproductionofnaturalresources[...]That'sreallyranksrightupthereinmyconcerns,becauseitaffectsusdirectly,becauselawenforcement,supportscience,managementofinvasivespeciesontheirpartoftheland,andImean,alloftheirresourceswill[...]theydoanicejob,butshoot,iftheylosemoreofthestaffisgoingtobetough.”
Aginginfrastructurecombinedwithstressedsystems
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Crustalearthquakes-damagetoinfrastructure
Forestfirethreatlimitingrepairandmaintenanceactivitiesinthesummermonths(repairingTimothyLakedamwasanexample-damwasopenforrepair,butfireriskrequiredastopworkscenario,whichcouldbecatastrophicwhenrainsarrivedinthefall)
Forestfires–notjustincreaseinsedimentationbutalsoresultinginthelossoffiltration
Hazmatspillsharminginfrastructure
Terrorismtargetedatdrinkingwaterinfrastructure
6.“Keepsmeupatnight”Threats
“Andwhatdoeskeepmeupatnighttoo,whenitcomestomessagingisnotgettingtothevulnerablepopulations.PeoplewhodonotspeakEnglish,kidsthatareinschool,homeless.Thosethatmayhavemobilityissuesorhearingandseeingissues.Thatkeepsmeupatnight.”
“Ican'tsaythere'sanythingthat'sthatgripping,butIthinkwhatisconcerningandkindofhardtogetyourarmsaround,somethingthatIknowisaproblemandmycolleaguesknowisaproblemandwe'restilltryingtofigureouthowbesttomanageitthroughouragency,andthatwouldbejustplainolddevelopmentandthevariouspeopleandentitiesthatareinvolvedthataren'tnecessarilycoordinatingonlong-termplanningandlongertermhydrologicimpactsofdevelopment.”
“Ithinkmybiggestconcern,again,isjusttheideathat,willweberatchetedoffhowmuchwaterwecantake.”
“IfIdidhaveaworrythatkeptmeupatnight,itwouldbe,shouldagas-linebeapprovedthatwouldcrossourbasin.”
“I'moncallontheweekendswaitingfor...allthedeputieshavemynumber.Imean,obviously,I'mconcernedinthesensethatsomethingbigwillbreakout.Therewas,anecdotally,Ithinkitwasbackin2008,therewassomenear-riotinggoingon[...]Ithinkit'sreallysomebigsocialdisruption,wouldbetheissue.”
“Mykeepmeupatnightscenarioiseffluentreleasesfromwastewatertreatmentplantsthatkillfishdirectly.CityofSandygoesintoDeepCreekthatflowsintotheClackamas,andthereareincidentswheretheyhavekilledfishasaresultofachlorineeffluentrelease.Sowe'vebuilttheseinfrastructureinandaroundourstreamsthataremeanttocontrolthedevelopmentaroundthestream,buttheycreatesuchariskforthetributarystreamthat,inparticular,throughthisprocesswithTickleCreekandseeinghowDEQisregulatingit,itconcernsmeforwherethosethingsexistelsewhereandaredoingthesamething.”
“Potentially,inthefuture,ifweweretohaveahightideeventcombinedwithasealevelrisejustbecausewehavetheoceansrisingduetomeltingicecaps,combinedwithhighrainfallorsnowmelteventscomingdownthemountainsidesasjustpartoftheregularriversystem,therehastobesomeplaceforthatwatertogo[...]youcanhaveaprettyseriousinundationeventthatwilllastalongperiodoftimeuntileventuallythetidegoesout[...]Thoseeventscanbeprettyserious.Twoofourlargest,mostimportantfacilitiesarerightontheriverfrontofthesetidallyforcedareas.Itisapotentiallyhazardoussituationforusinthefutureshouldthosestarsalign.Youdoneedtogetallthreeofthosethingscomingintophase.Potentially,in
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thefuture,ifthatisgoingtohappen,that'sabigdeal.Thatonlyhastohappenonceforustofeelthesevereimpact.”
“Theotheristhecrustalquake.Ofcourse,Cascadiagivesme...Butwehavealotofcrustalquakestoothatcouldreallydisruptwaterservice”
“There'sacouplethings.Oneofthemisthe'64scenario.The1964scenario[...]The1964isactuallythe'96floodonsteroids.Imean,thatscenariojustmakesmystomachhurt.ItwasjusttheWillamette,itwasallthewaydowntoSalem,Ithink.Itwasjusthorrific.That'soneofthemostdramatic.Andthen'96ofcourse,afterthat.But'96wasn'teventhatbad.ThatonekeepsmeupatnightbecauseIknowit'shappenedhere,Iknowitwillhappenagain.”
“Well,Iwouldn'tsaythatthereisanycredible,immediatethreatthatkeepsmeupatnight.Anytimeyouhaveaseriesofdamsalongawaterway,therearerisksassociatedwiththosestructures.Thinkingofsomeworst-casescenarioofadamfailure,that'ssomethingthatishighlyunlikely,andtherearemeasuresinplacetoprotectpeople.PGEhassirensandawholesystemofsafeguardsinplace,soitdoesn'treallykeepmeupatnight,butthatwouldbesomething...thatwouldbeterribleforbothpeopleandtheaffectedenvironment.Andthentheothersomethingthatcouldbecatastrophicbutisprobablyanoutlierhastodowithsomekindofcatastrophicwildfirethatleadstolandslidesorjust,denudesthelandscapeofvegetationleadingtoreallysevereimpactstothesoilsandwater.”
“Well,youknow,tomeit'spesticides...Werelyonthestreamsidebuffersandfilters,butwedon'thaveanywayofprotectinggroundwaterreally.Wedon'thaveawayofmanagingpeople'swaterusage.TheworstthatcouldhappenisIseeanirrigationstreamrunningofftheirsiteandIcouldsampleit,andifittestspositiveforpesticideswecouldsayyouneedtodothesethings.So,it'shardtoenforcefrommypointofview,butIreallybelievethat'sthefutureofwaterquality.”
B.Adaptation/responsetothreats
1.AdaptationOpportunities
“AndRockCreekconfluencesanarea,thatwehadarecentprojectin2015,wherethen,whenthedroughtoccurred,itwascontributing10degreescoolerwater,thanthemainstemhead.So,allofthesetributariescomingintoourmainstem,eveninthemostlowestregionsoftheClackamas,havegoodopportunitytoprovidesomefood,andwater.”
“Asa21stcenturymillennialpublicadministrator,Iknowyoucan'tdoeverythingyourself.It'sbettertobreakdownthesilosandapplyknowledgeorresearchorworkthat'sbeenaccomplishedelsewhere.WehavewhatIwouldcallsiblingagenciesalsohereinthePortlandMetroArea.WithintheCityofPortland,ofcourse,ourBureauofDepartmentalServices,WashingtonCounty'sCleanWaterServices,CityofGreshamandthenlookingupanddowntheWillametteValley,CityofSalem,Corvallis,Eugene.Springfieldhasalargeconsortiumandthenlookingfurthertoourneighborstothenorth,ClarkCounty,Washington.ThenlookinguptoourfriendsintheSoundarea,theWaterAlliance,whichisinandaroundtheOlympia,Laceyarea,CityofTacoma,PierceCounty,KingCounty,whichishugeandtheydoalotofheavyliftingbecausetheyhaveaverylargepopulationtoserve.Theyhavealsoaverychallengingservicearea.InandaroundSeattle,it'sveryhillysotheydoalotofgreatworkwithintheCityof
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Seattle.LookingattheCleanWaterAgencies,there'sanOregonAssociationofCleanWaterAgenciesandthenthere'sthePacificNorthwestCleanWaterAssociation,whichiscalledthePNCWAandtheotherone,wecallitOCWA.Thosedifferentgroupsarethetradeorganizationsthatrepresenttheinterestsofstormwater,wastewater,drinkingwaterinterestsintheregion.Becausethosedifferentgroupsallhavesimilarmissionsorareheldatthesameregulatorystandards,we'reallfacingthesametypesofchallenges,justmaybehingedslightlydifferentlydependingonwhereyouare[...]Learningfromthosedifferentagencies,theworkthatthey'veapplied,whetherit'ssomethinginmodelingeffortsorthey'vebeentryinganewstormwatermanagementdesigncriteriaorthey'veusedsomeneweffortstotryandredesigntheirinfrastructure,theirpipes,whatever,learningfromthosefolksandhavingthoserelationshipsisthemostimportant[...]”
“ASR,AquiferStorageandRecovery.Andso,thetheoryofthatis,inthewinterwhenthere'ssomuchwaterintheriverversusinthesummerwhenthere'slimitedamounts,istotakethewaterthat'splentifulandtreatsomeextraandputitintooursystemandthendropitintosomeaquifers.Soinessence,wemoundupaquifer.Andtheninthesummertimewhenthere'slesswaterintheriver,wetakethatmuchlessoutoftheriveratthetime,andjustdrawfromthatmoundedupaquiferlevel.Andso,ittakesawaytheneedtotakeasmuchfromtheriverandputsitbackon,justgettingitfromwithinthesystem[...]wehaveonewell,andwe've...soforinstance,we'vestored55milliongallons,isthemostwe'vedone.But,theideawouldbe...andwecanpulloneMGDoutofthatperday.Soagain,ifourpeakis12.8,thenalmost10%couldbemetbythat.Sothat's10%lessthatwewouldbetakingoutoftheriveronanygivenday.Andtheideais,aspartofourplanning,masterplan,isthatwewouldhavemoreofthose,youknow,maybeevenlike5orso.”Thiswatercouldalsobeusedtohelpstreamflowforhabitatinthelow-flowsummermonths.
“Idothinkthatanopportunityexistsforresearch,andthenpromotingtheClackamasasamodel,forhowwe'reabletoaccommodatedevelopmentandgrowth,whileprotectingasourceofdrinkingwater,andthenaturalresources.Beingrighthereinthemetroarea,alotofdevelopmentpushingoutward.TheUrbanRuralReserveControlshavebuffersof100foot.Incertainareas.Andmaybebeyondthat,andothers.So,thelongtermeffectsandbenefitsofsuchprograms.”
“Idon'tmeantosaythistodiminishpeople'sskillsorunderstanding,buthowdoyoueducatepeoplebettertothenknowhowtodealwiththeissues?Wehaveagreatopportunity,Ithink,inthePortlandMetroAreatohavealargevolunteerbaseandprobablyalotofpeoplethatareinterestedinseeingtheriverprotected.Theyjustdon'tknowwhattodo.”
“IthinkifaprograminDEQweredeveloped,asopposedtosingleissuewheretheyhavetogetacrewtogetherandgoout,ratherhaveaprogramarounditto...Whoismonitoringtheseurbanwatersheds,andwhat'shappeningwithpeakflowsinthewinter,lowflowsinthesummer?Ijustdon'tthinkanything'sbeingdonetoseewhat'shappening.”
“IthinkwhatIputhereisweneedtolistentowhattheriver'stellingusandstarttomakechangesbefore[...]thatwe'renotrecognizingthatsomethinglike2015isgoingtobeamoreregularoccurrence.Weneedtothinklong-term.We'rejustnotdoingit.AsmuchasIthinkpeoplewerescaredwhenclimatechangeandeverythingbecameanissue,I'mafraidthat'sdieddownalittlebit.Peoplejustaren'tthinkingfarenoughahead.”
“Ideallyifwehadabetterunderstandinginregardstoclimatechange,thatmightadaptsomeofthewaysthatwelookatourwatersystemplanninginthefutureofallrightwellwe'regoingto
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havetohavetreatmentplantsthathavemoretechnologytodealwiththisarrayofstuffcomingintousonamorefrequentbasis.Orwe'regoingtohavetoupsizetreatmentplantssothatwearegoingtohavelongerhottersummers,andunlesswecanreallygetpeopleandtellthemtheycan'twater,orgetreductionsandwaterusedown,wearejustgoingtohavetohavebiggerplantstoaccommodatethat.”
“It'sbecauseofvoters,itwasseenasamandatetothestate,andtoourlegislators.In2010,whenthevotersvotedaheadofthesunsetsupporttoOWEB,andforlotteryfundstobededicatedtoprotectionofournaturalresources,thatthereispoliticalwill.”
“JustrealquicktotouchonPGEandthehydrofacility,they'reprovingthattheycanhaveanoperationtherewithminimalimpactstofishcurrently.Thatdoesn'ttalkaboutthelegacyeffectsfromdevelopingthehydroprojectsinthefirstplace,buttheircurrentoperations,they'redemonstratingthattheycangetfishtosurvive.It'ssomething,ifinthisprocesswecandemonstratethatbecauseitneedstobedemonstratedtootherbasinsintheWillamettethatitcanbedoneaswell.”
“Simplysittingdownandmeetingface-to-face.WedosomuchcommunicationnowviaemailandphoneandtheconvenienceofthosethatIfindthatsittingdownandtalkingthroughtheissuesisincrediblybeneficial.Wetrytodothatoftentimeswiththefederalagencies.We'vesatdownwithNOAAoftentimes,andyougettotalkaboutissuesandhowwecancollectivelyworktogetheronthem.Itjustdoesn'tseemtohappenonafrequentenoughscale.”
“That'sagoodexampleofrestorationofflows,whattheycando.PGEusedtohaveaminimumflowof,Ithink,20CFSforyears.Nowtheirminimumflowduringfishmigrationperiodsis120CFS,sothere'ssixtimesasmuchhabitatavailableforfishnow.SpringChinookareusingit,whichissomethingwedidn'tseehappening,butnowit'sagaintheabilityofspringChinooktoexpandtheirrangeandusehabitatthatthey'vehistoricallyusedthatwasonlylimitedbythefactthattheydidn'thavethewater.”
“TheupperbasinthatisrelativelyprotectedbytheforestthatsurroundsitandwhatIfeelnowissomethingthatisprotectiveenoughforthatarea.Theforestseemstobeanareathatwecanrelyoninthefuture.Whenwetalkaboutclimatechange,IthinktheClackamas,inparticular,notbeingaglacial-drivenstream,isonethatwon'tsufferthehighsandlowsofclimateimpactsasotherbasinswill.”
“We'refindingrecently,withPGE'simprovements,isthat,say,springChinookarenowusingmoreofthebasinbecausethey'renotdelayedatproject.Theyusedtobedelayed,sosayamonthdelay.Thentheywouldonlygettotheirspawningarea,whichmaynotbefullyutilizingthebasin.Nowtheyare,sothat'sveryencouraging.”
Agenerationalshiftinthefarmingcommunitiescomeswithopportunitiestotrynewcommunicationstrategiesandoutreachaboutbestpractices.
Astronglawenforcementpresenceontheriverhasanexuswithwaterqualityimprovements.
ClackamasPartnership:“It'sapartnershipthatwehavebetweenallthewatershedcouncils,likeJohnsonCreekWatershedCouncil,theNorthClackamasUrbanWatershedCouncil,GreaterOregonCityWatershedCouncil,andtheClackamasbecausetheClackamaspopulationforfishactuallyincludesthosetributaries.Whatwe'redoingiswe'recomingtogethertodothatidentificationoflimitingfactorsandthreatsandthendevelopaproposaltoOWEBforpretty
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significantfunding,upto$2milliontoimplementrestorationprojects.ThisisonegroupthatIthinkisaperfectexampleofwhatneedstobebroughttogethertodothesethings.There'sagood,similarexampleintheSandy,withtheSandyBasinPartners,thatallofthesegroupshavecometogethertoworktogethertodealwiththeissues.Ithinkwe'regettingthereintheClackamaswiththisgroup.Whatweneedisthatfundingtomakeithappen.TheCRBChasalargeroleinthatgroupbecausethey'rethemostfunded,themostcapable.”
Conservationprograms-likeindoorplumbingcodes(low-flowtoilets,faucets,etc.)
Countyhazardassessmentsthatareupdatedeverytwoyearsareanopportunitytobringmanystakeholderstogether-waterproviders,fire,law,publichealth,socialservices,etc.
CountyParksandForestfundingstrategies:“Andkindoftheinterestingthingtothat,it'sthetimberreceiptsthatcomebacktocounties,comeoffofthetimbersales,andsincewe'reusingsomestewardship,thosetimberreceiptsdon'tcomebacktotheCounty.Sowhatwe'vedoneinsteadwas,movedalotoftheretainedreceiptsandtheprojectsthatwouldbenefitClackamasCountyaskindofanoffset.Solikeculvertrootplacement,thatbothhasapublicsafetyandfishpassagebenefit,wouldbefunded.AnumberofCheryl'sprojects[CRBC],andsomeofthecountyprojectsgetretainedreceipts.WewereonaprogramcalledDumpStoppers,whichitcleansupillegaldumpsitesonforestlands,andsowe'vebeenabletogetsomefundingthroughretainedreceiptstohelprunourDumpStoppersprogram.”
Createforumsforsharinginformationandstrategies-forexampleworkshopswithotherbasincoordinators,technicalassistanceworkshops,etc.
Createresilientforeststofendoffepidemics,whichcanleadtomoredeadtreesandfuelforforestfires.
CREP/NCRSprogrampayslandownerstoplantriparianbuffers.
CSWCDcanbeagrantmakerinsteadofagranttakerbecausethevotersvotedinameasuretofundannually2.2million.
Developmentofacounty-widesurfacewaterdistrictisinthebeginningstages.Thisallowsforintegrationandefficiencyinregulationacrossagencies–roads,culverts,floodplains,etc.KingCountyinWAandWashingtonCountyinOregonhavesimilarsetups.
Differentfundingsourcescanallowfordifferentopportunities.Fundingfromratepayerscanopenupavenuesforcapitalprojectsthatinadifferentsettingwouldneedapprovalfromapoliticallyelectedorappointedboard.Thereismoreflexibilitythisway.Matchinggrantsisanotheropportunity(DEQ).Lotteryfundscanbeusedforeducationandrestoration.
Exploreadaptivemanagementinthefaceofclimatechangeuncertainty.
Federal,stateandlocalpartnershipstomanageforests.Alsoopportunitiestoworkwithtribalpartners-waterqualityandquantityissueseffecteveryone.
Findacommondenominatorthroughnamingtheissuethatstakeholderswithvariedvaluescangetbehind-like“drinkingwater”.
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Findawaytoincorporateeveryone’sdatatomakeitaccessibleinoneplace.DEQisworkingonthisforwaterquality.
Firepreventionsactivities-likeprohibitingtargetshooting.
Focusresourcesonthecountysepticprogram-helppeopleupgradefailingsystems.
Helplandownersdealwithinvasivespecies,plusadvocateformoreshadeplantingnearthetributariesandrivers.Win-win.“shadeourstreams”program
Maintainregulationsaroundfloodplainsandriparianbuffers.
Microeffortscancontributetothewhole:“Therearethingsthatwelookatasfar...ImeanalotofthemIwouldcharacterizeasmicro,wherewelookat,oh,arebagsstillbeingusedalongcatchbasins?They'remicro,butIstillthinkthey'reprettyimportantaswell.Justthosekindsofthingsoferosioncontrol,bestpracticesonasite.”
Monitoringandmanagementisthefutureofwaterquality.
Newtechnologies,likeDNAtesting,havehelpedwithwaterqualitymonitoring.
Opportunitiestochangemindsandcreatecredibilityandtrustataneighborlevel.
Opportunitiestoreducefuelsforforestfiresthroughthinningprojects.
PGEchangedoperationstoreducetraveltimeofwaterattheFaradydaminthesummermonthstohelpcontrolwarmingofwater.
PGEfundedhabitatprojectsandwaterqualityandquantityimprovementprojects(millionsofdollars’worth)-partneringwiththeCRBCandothers.
Promotesepticprogramasapublichealthissue-messagingtopublicandtopoliticians.
Regardingriverflowanddams:“It'swhatthenaturalresourcesintheriver,thefishandthewatercrittersexpecttosee.So,we'renottryingtomakeitbetterthannatural,we'resayingiftheygrewupfacingbigspringrunoffsthentheyshouldfacethemnow.Sothat'skindofthelong-termgoalonthatproject.”
Reintroductionofspeciesfromotherbasins(i.e.reintroductionofbulltroutintheupperClackamasfromtheMetoliousRiver.
Retrofittingpumpsinirrigationwellsatnurseriestouselessenergyandtometerwaterbetter.
Reusing“purplepipe”recycledwastewaterforirrigation.
Robustfishmonitoringprogramsatthedam-keepingtrackofjuvenileandadultfish,sortingwildfromhatcheryfishandonlyallowingwildfishabovethedamtocreateandpreserveawildfishsanctuary.
Salmoneducationinschools-CRBCprogram
StashtheTrashbagprogramontheriverforrecreationgarbagecurtailment
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SystemDevelopmentCharges-givecitiesthecapacitytorequirecertaininfrastructureinvestmentsfromdevelopersonnewprojects,includingprovidingopenspace.
TheClackamasPartners(differentthantheClackamasStewardshipPartners)isarecentlyformedgroupthatincludesavarietyofstakeholders.“ThisgroupislookingattheClackamasRiverBasinasawhole[...]butthey'rereallylookingat:whatarethewatershedandrestorationneedsinthebasin?Whereshouldweputlimitedresources?Whatarethepriorities?Thisgroupisworkingtogethertocomeupwithanupdatedactionplan.Theyformedoneawhileback,butthey'rerevisingit,renewingit,takingafreshlookatconditionsthatmayhavechangedsincetheydevelopedtheirlastplan.Throughthisplan,intermsoffundingforrestorationwork,projectsthatcanattractavarietyoffundingsourcesareoftenthemostlikelytogetimplemented,andsohavingthisactionplanmighthelpallofusstrategicallythinkabouthowwe'regoingtohelpsupporttheprioritiesintheland.”
Thelocalplannershavetheflexibilitywithcodetomakeexceptionsthatcanhelpminimizeimpactsofdevelopment,forexamplereducingrequiredparkinginanenvironmentallysensitivearea.
TheregionalstormwatermanagersCleanRiversCoalitionisagreatwaytosendonemessageinonevoicetotheentireWillamette-agreatmodelforoutreachandcommunicationwithstakeholders.
Thereareopportunitiesforbetterstorageanddisposalofagriculturalchemicals.
Therehasbeenalotofcoordinationinthebasinaboutwaterqualityandfishhabitat,thereistheopportunitytotackletheissueofwaterquantitytoo.
Thereisgoingtobemoreopportunitiesforcollaborationindecision-making
Thereistheneedforamorestrategicandintegratedplanforwatercurtailmentinresponsetodrought.
Thereistheopportunityforthecountytodevelopaclimateactionplanacrossdepartments-linkingtostate,andinternationalclimategoals.
Volunteerprojectstoraiseawarenessandcommunitybuy-in.
Withregardstoclimatechange:“Wecoordinatewell,bothinternallyandwithexternalpartners,butitseemslikeifyouthinkofthethreatstowater,there'salotmorecoordinationthatcouldbedoneintermsofthescienceanditsapplication,howweimplementthat.Imeanwearescience-basedorganization,butIstillthinkthatthere'sprobablymoreworkthatcouldaddresstheuncertaintiesandthenalsotherealitiesoflandmanagement.”
Workwithagchemicalsalesrepstohelpeducateaboutappropriateamountsofapplication(moreisnotalwaysbest).
2.BarrierstoAdaptation
“[...]theyreallyneedtoworkongettingthosequality,QAPs,thequalityassuranceplansout,and,because,[...]wecouldn'tuseanyofthe,soDEQforusjuststarteddoingthis[...]isgatheringdataintheirdatabaseandrunningastatusandtrendanalysisforourmanagementareaandthenreportingtheresultstous.Whatwe'refindingis,youknow,theremaybe500,150data
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sets,butthey'reonlyabletousefivebecausetheother100eitherdidn'tmeetthetypeofqualityoritdidn'tgetdownloadedright,orwhateverreasontheycouldn'tuseit.”
“2015istheexampleofwhathappenswhenyougetultralowflow,highwatertemperatures,andfishdiedasaresult.Wehadabigdie-offofspringChinookduringthatyear,anditprovidedusareallygoodpictureofwhatitmightlooklikein20,30years,onamoreregularoccurrence.”
“Iwouldsaythatrightnow,wehaveadequateresources,butourbudgetshavebeenremainingprettystaticinrecentyears,ifnotdeclining.Withthathappening,itmakesitevermorechallengingtomaintainthestaffinglevelsthatwewouldlike,toprovidethegoodsandservicesandprotectionsthatweoffer.”
“Ifyoudon'tunderstandtheproblem,you'renotgoingtowanttofixit.AndIthinkrurallandownersandaglandownersdon'tall,theyintuitivelyhaveabetterunderstandingofwaterqualitythanmaybeanurbanpersondoesbecausethey'reoutthereworkinginiteveryday,butatthesametimetheydon'treallyknowthestatusoftheirwaterquality.Theydon'tknowthatthey'relivingonanimpairedstream.Theydon'tunderstandthat.”
“Oneofourmandatesisthatweprovidewatertotheareasthatarewithinourboundariesandtheotheroneis,again,wehavethatrelationshipwithcityofHappyValleyaspartofthewaterauthority.So,astheymovesomewhere,wetooaresupposedtomoveandservethatarea.So,wekindofjustaresometimesinthereactionmode[...]wearen'ttheonesdecidinghowitdevelops.Wedon'thavesayinwhatindustrygoeswhereandhowmuchwatertheycanorcan'tuse.”
“SomethingthatIknowisaproblemandmycolleaguesknowisaproblemandwe'restilltryingtofigureouthowbesttomanageitthroughouragency,andthatwouldbejustplainolddevelopmentandthevariouspeopleandentitiesthatareinvolvedthataren'tnecessarilycoordinatingonlong-termplanningandlongertermhydrologicimpactsofdevelopment.”
“There’salotoflayersandalotofplayersandalotofvaluesassociatedwithit.Noteverybodyvalueswaterforthesamereason.”
“ThisiswhereI'vequestionedDEQandhowthey'reregulatingthelargedevelopmentsthatareoccurring.Dowesizethingsliketreatmentpondsorwhateverforimpervioussurfaces?Aretheybigenough?Irarelygetananswerthatsays,yes,theyare.Weknowtheyare.It'smorethattheyusesomemodelingtodeterminesizing,andItypicallythinkthatmostofthosearesimplyinadequate,especiallywhenweconsidertheimpactsofimpervioussurfaceinpeakfloweventsthathappeninthosewatersheds.Theysimplycan'tcontrolthewater[...]There'salotofinstanceswhereyougooutanddoyourthingandcreateastormwaterdetentionpondthat'sgoingtocleanthewater.Doweknowifitactuallyfunctionseffectivelytoprotectfish?“
“Timeisstretchedtoothin,yeah.Everybodyisjustspreadtoothin,butIthinktheopportunityandthebenefititwouldcreatewouldoverwhelmthat.Wejustdon'tdoit.”
“Wecandoeverythingwewantto,toprotectandrestorefishintheupperbasin.Theyhaveacorridor,andalsotheydorearinthelowerbasinaspartoftheirlifehistory.Soyoucan'tjustwriteitoffandletthingsdeteriorate,asIthinkweare.Acoupleofexamplesofthatare,again,thewastewatertreatmentplants.Wehappentobethere.Wehappentomonitor,soourguysarewalkingthestream,andthey'llsmellchlorine.It'sreallythatbad.We'veonlyhadtwospecificincidentswherefishdiedasaresultofit,buttherewasonewhere60adultcohodied,anotherwherenearly100juvenilecohoandsteelheadsdied,directlyasaresultofeffluentrelease.So
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there'sthat,andit'satributarytotheClackamas,soDeepCreek.Thenyou'vegotRockcreek,whichisdownstreamandprobablythehighestrateofdevelopmentanywhere.”
“Weneedtolistentowhattheriver'stellingusandstarttomakechangesbefore[...]we'renotrecognizingthatsomethinglike2015isgoingtobeamoreregularoccurrence.Weneedtothinklong-term.We'rejustnotdoingit.AsmuchasIthinkpeoplewerescaredwhenclimatechangeandeverythingbecameanissue,I'mafraidthat'sdieddownalittlebit.Peoplejustaren'tthinkingfarenoughahead.”
“We'rekindofanaffluentareaandsotheytendtousequiteabitofwaterforwater,wateringtheirlawns.So,togiveyouafeel,ourwinterdemandismorelike3.5milliongallonsperday....thedifferencebetween3.5and12.8[summeruse].”
Alotmorecoordinationneedstobedonewithpartnerstoaddresstheuncertaintiesthatwillcomewithclimatechange.
Aneedtobemorestrategicindroughtcontingencyplanning.
Abletoenforcezoning,butnotmuchbeyondthat
Abundantrecreationincloseproximitytowaterisproblematic.
AgricultureregulationiscomplicatedbecauseofthelargevarietyoftypesofagricultureintheCRB.
AsHappyValleytakesoverprovidingservicesforDamascus,whatfutureresponsibilitywillfallonthecityregardingupdatinginfrastructure?
Costisamajorbarriertoimplementingstrategies.
CRBCissupportedbythestategeneralfund.Decisionsaremadeatthelegislaturelevel,notthelevelofthosedoingtheworkontheground.Thismakesitperpetuallyvulnerable.
Currentinfrastructurewillnotbeadequatetodealwiththeincreasedfrequencyandintensityofweathereventsinthefutureduetoclimatechange.
Curtailmentplansarenotcohesiveorconsistentinthebasin,andmostthemdon’ttriggerunlessthereisadroughtdeclarationbythegovernor.Mostcurtailmentisvoluntary.
Decisionsaboutwhethertospendrestorationmoneyinurbanareas,orusethesameamountofmoneyinruralareasto“preservealotmorefish”.Howdowestarttacklinganissuewhereitcanbemosteffective?
DEQshouldbethekeeperofdatathatcanbesharedbetweenagencies,buttheyhavenothadasustainabledatamanagementsystemuntilnow(tobenewlyimplementedsoon).Rightnowsharingisadhoc.
Difficulttocontroldumping-homelessencampments,humanwasteimpactsontheriver.
Difficulttoimproveoldinfrastructurewhenpeopledonotwanttheirwaterratesincreased.
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ESArecoveryplanisnotregulatoryandnotmandatory,itonlyhappensifthereispoliticalwilltodoit.Plus,existingregulationsarebeingpeeledback.
Fisheriesmanagementislackingingettingtheirmessageouttothepublic.
Focusoncomplaintsandcodeviolations,versuspayingattentiontowheredevelopmentisproceeding.Plus,resourceddropoffintheseareasbecauseresidentsaren’tpayingtousesewerpipes-yetdevelopmentisstillhappening.
Frequentcomingandgoingofthefarmingpopulationmakesmessagingaroundregulationsdifficulttocommunicate.
FundingtoDEQ,passeddownfromtheEPAhasgonedowneveryyear.Thisacongressionaldecision,sonotalocalcontrol.ThismeanstheyareunabletoprovidegrantstosupportotherorganizationslikeCRBC.
HappyValleyhasa“reallyextremelylowpermanenttaxrate”,soinorderfundoperationsthecityhastogoafteralevyandgetapprovalfromthevoters.
Highertemperaturesandlowerflowsrequiringmoretreatmentinwastewater.
Ifpermittingandregulationswouldallowformoreflexibilitypeoplecouldsharewaterrightsincertainways.
Increasesinconstructionandimpermeablesurfacesinrecentyears,andprojectedforfutureyears,aretaxingutilityinfrastructure.
Itisasignificantundertakingtotrytochangetheregulatoryprocess.
It’sdifficultandcontroversialtotrytobalancepropertyrightsandenvironmentalprotections.
Lackofadequatelawenforcement–notenoughpeopleontheforce.
Lackofcoordinationofinformationbetweendepartmentsandagencies.
LackofeducationorapublicknowledgebaseaboutwaterintheCRBisachallengeandthreattotheresource.
Lackofuseofonlineresourcesforruralagriculturalpopulation-generationaldifference.
Legacyfarmingconditionsaredifficultandexpensivetocorrect:channelizedstreams,compaction,invasiveplants,etc.
Manyfarmershaveoff-farmjobsanddon’thavealotofsparetimetoconnectwitheducationorresourceopportunities.
Oldinfrastructureintreatmentplantscannotdealwiththeincreaseinuse/need.
Opportunitiestodooutreachtolandownersdependsonavailablefunding,whichisuncertaininthefuture.
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Outreachtovulnerablepopulationsisabigchallenge(floods,landslides,fires,humanhealthissues)-includednon-Englishspeakers,childreninschool,thehomeless,thosewithmobility/visionorhearingissues.
Peopleareshyabouttheirdata-“theydon’twanttobe,wellIsharedthiswithyouandnowthegovernment’shereandthey’retellingusourstreamsaredirtyandwecan’tdoallthesethingsandit’sallmyfault.”
Peopleareshyabouttheirdata,notsureifitsgoodenoughtoshare.
Pesticidesalesrepsmaypushmorechemicalsthanarenecessaryinordertomeettheirsalesbottomlines.
Politicalpendulumswingscanbeachallengebecausetheelectedboardgovernsthedepartment.
Politicalshiftscanshiftmanagementdirectives,whichimpactswaterproviders,particularlyincitieswherewaterisjustoneofmanyresponsibilitiesoftheelectedofficials.Thereisaconstantneedtoeducatetheelectedofficials.
Regardingwaterrights,thereismoredemandthanwater.
Resistancetochangebylandowners.
Resourcesarenotavailabletomonitorwaterquality-therearenotenoughmonitoringlocations.longtermdatasetsarelacking,andmodelingislacking.
Socialmedia-driveneventshavesetbackeffortstochangenegative-impactsandbehaviorforrecreationontheriver.Nowthereareverylargeevents,organizedquicklythatbringthousandsofpeopleinoneday(Floatapalooza,TheGothFloat,etc.)–itputsastrainonthesystem.Plusifsomeoneisusingtheriverjustonce,theydon’tcareabouttheriverinthesamewayasregularvisitors.“Westartedseeing,fromasocialorculturalphenomenon,peopleofentitlement,didn'tcareaboutyourrules,didn'tcareabouttheriver,didn'tcareaboutanythingbutjustforthenextthreeorfourhours,theywerejustgoingtodowhattheywantedtodo.”
Someagenciesspendtimereviewingandcommentingonlanduseissues,butrunintofrustrationswhenitdoesnotmakeadifference.ManyoftheDEQregulationsarenotsufficientforwaterquality.“It'snotenough.Whenyoulookdowntheroadand,inparticular,considerclimatechange,they'renot.OnequestionthatIoftentimeshavefortheregulatorsthatweworkwithishowisthisgoingtomakeadifference.Whatdifferencewillourcommentorourefforttoreviewsomethingmakeintheoverallimplementationoftheproject?Soit'sgottothatpointwhere,becausewe'respreadsothin,unlessweknowwe'regoingtomakeadifference,wedon'tgetintothearenaanymore.”
Staffingissuesresultintheinabilitytobeproactive.
Thebiggestrisktotheriveristheoverusebypeopleforrecreationwithverylittlecontroloveraccess.
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Thecombinationofdroughtandfutureclimatechangehavenotbeenconsideredinplanningyet.Theneedswillvaryindifferentpartsofthebasintoo(SouthCountyhasbeenparticularlyimpactedinthepast).
ThefutureofEPAfundssignificantlyimpactsthePacificCohoSalmonRecoveryFundthatisdistributedthroughOWEB.
Therearenotsystemsinplacetodealwithsevereevents,rathertheyarehandlesinmoreofanad-hocmanor.
Therehasbeenafocusontechnicalsolutions,butthereisaneedformoreplanningandcollaborationonsharingresources.
Thereisaconflictinprioritybetweenthecountytourismdepartmentandtheparkdepartment.TheParkdepartmentisnotinterestedinattractinganymorepeopletotheriversinceitisalreadystrainedsystem.
Thereisatendencythatwaterdecision-makerswill“goatitthemselves”,insteadofcollaborating.
Thereisanincreaseindevelopmentofareasthatarenotservicedbysewers,thereforetheyareonseptic,andtheseareasarenotwell-mapped,lackregulatorymechanisms,andsufficientfundingtofixit.
Thereisdifficultytacklingproblemsthatareexpensiveandlong-term.
Thereisnotagoodunderstandingofhowclimatewillimpactfrequencyandintensityofstormsandhowthiswillaffectpastandcurrentriparianandhabitatrestorationefforts.
Thereisnotcurrentthinkingabouthowtoincorporateforestfireriskintowatershedplanning
Timeisanothermajorbarrier
Traditionalfarming:conservativeandhighlyfocusedon“safe”decisions.Conservationbestpracticeslagbehindcuttingedgeresearch.
Uncertaintyabouttheimpactsofclimatechange.
Understaffed-unabletobeproactive
Waterboardsrepresentthepeopleandmaytakeexceptiontorestrictionsofwateruse.
Waterinfrastructurefunctionandimprovementsarefundedthroughratepayers,sothereisnotincentivetocurtailwateruseinthesummer.
WaterprovidersdonothavetheirwaterrightsdeterminedbecausethereisongoinglitigationfromWaterWatchregardingtheirimpactsonfishhabitat.
Waterqualitymonitoringthatisbeingdone,ishousedindifferentplacesanddifficulttoshare.
Waterqualityreportsdonotgetdistributedaswidelyastheyshould.Youhavetoknowwheretogolookonawebsitetofinditnow.
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WaterqualitysamplingmaydecreasefromagenciesandnonprofitswhorelyonDEQ319grants,asthatmoneyisnotlongeravailable.
Whendryyearsarefollowedbywetyearsthesenseofurgencyfordroughtplanningdeclines.“Outofsight,outofmind[...]We’llbethereagainoneday”.
3.IstheBasintheAppropriateScaletoApproachAdaptationStrategies?
“Six-fieldwatershedscale”likethelowerportionofDeepCreek-it’sanappropriatescaletomeasureandtobeabletoseechangeinrestorationactivities.
CRBistherightscaletoaddressthesethreats(mainresponse)
DepartmentofFishandWildlife(federal)andWaterResourcesDepartment(state)
Forfish,wealsohavetoconsidertheWillametteandColumbia,includingthePortlandHarborintheWillamette.
Individualconnectionisabetterscale,“thebestinteractionshappenbetweenneighborstoestablishcredibilityandtrust”.Thisishowtochangepeople’sminds.Itisdifficultto“scaleup”thislevelofengagement.
It’sgoingtotakealllevels-nationalleadership,stateprocesses,thecounty“allpoliticsislocal”,neighborhoodscales
Watershedlevelistherightscalebecauseyouneedtolookatthe“bigperspective”-fromtheheadwaters,transportanddepositiontotheocean.
C.Stakeholders
1.WhoIsCurrentlyEngaged
“ThebiggestonethatisthechampionistheClackamasRiverwaterproviders”
“TheWatershedCouncilishuge.Imean,theWatershedCouncil,Iwouldsay,isthedrivingforceofpositivechangeandprotectionintheClackamasBasinthere.”
“TheWatershedCouncilisaconvener,[...]theWatershedCouncilisthecentralentitythatbringsustogether.”
“IwouldmentiontheSoilandWaterConservationDistrictisalsoanotherreally,reallyimportantsourceofpositiveworkandpositivechangeintheriverbasinbecauseoftheirtechnicalexpertise,particularlyaroundconservationandrestorationandlandmanagement,andbecauseoftheirrelationshipwithlandownersthatnotbeingaregulatoryagency.”
Metro-“They'reanenormoussignificance,andtheyaremostdefinitelynotonlyatthetablebutIthinkcouldalmostbeinsomecasesconveningotherpeoplearoundthetableofrestoration.”
“Ithinkthere'sanintentandawillingnesstohavegoodinformationsharing,butweall,whenIsaywe,I'mtalkingaboutallthestakeholdersinthebasin,allhaveourownsystemsthatwe're
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keepingourdatain.Ithinkit'sfairforpeopletolookatanagencylikeDEQandsay,youshouldbetheplacewhereallentitiescansendtheirdata.”
“Ithinkthefolksthathavelotsofdata,theClackamasRiverwaterprovidersbecauseofthecontractworkthatthey'vefundedandcontracted,USGeologicalSurvey,DEQ,theSoilandWaterConservationDistricthasitsowndata.TheWatershedCouncildoessubmittheirdatatoDEQ.There'salotofentitiesthathavedata,andwe'recertainlywillingtoshareitwitheachother.Wejustdon'thaveareallyconvenientwaytodothat,andsoittendstobekindofadhoc[...]Ithinkwe'reallawareofit,andagaintheWatershedCouncilhasdoneareallygoodjobofinitiatingthoseconversationsaboutwho'scollectingwhatwhereandmakingusawareofworkthat'sgoingon,butit'sabigliftforanyoneentitytobeabletopullitalltogetherandmakeitsharable.”
2.WhoisMissingfromEngagement
Agriculture,growergroups
AttimesClackamasCountygovernment
Landowners
Morepeopleneedtobeengagedinthebigpictureoflanduseplanning,developmentplanning,roads,agriculturalconversionsandforestryconversions.
“MorethanIfeellikesomeone’smissing,IwishIhadmoreengagement.Becausetheyshowup.Butit’shardtokeepitgoinguntilwecangetitalldonebecauseittakestime.”
Moreworktodotoreachthegeneralpublic,the“missingmiddle”
Planningonawatershedscale.
“Thatisareallyexcellentquestion,andthat’salwaystheonewewanttobeasking.Wethinkweknowwhatallthesourcesare,andwethinkweknowwhoallthestakeholdersare,butImean,ifsomeone’smissing,howdoweknowthey’remissing?
Theacademicside,scientificresearch
Tribes-taxedintermsofresourcesandtime,theyare“vital,keymanagersoflandandwater”
Workonbettercoordinationamongstagencies.Weworkpasteachotheralot.
3.IstherePoliticalWilltoAddresstheseThreats?
“Ithinkthatingeneralasthecity'sgrown,theelectedofficialshavebeen,that'skindofbeentheirinterestis[...]havinggreaterlocalcontroloversomeofthesethings.”
“IthinkwedohaveaconcernonfuturesupportfederallytotheEPA,andanypoliticaldirection,thatdictatestheirresponses.”
“Ifwe'relookingatcapitalprojectsorthingsthatarepotentiallymorefar-reaching,youwouldwanttogetapprovalfromthecommissionersforthattypeofpolicydirection.Youhavetowalk
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thatlineverycarefullyandusethepoliticalclimateatthetimeasabellwethertodeterminewhetherornotyoucanembarkontheseprojects.”
“IntheU.S.,legalcasesandprecedentsthatpushusnottoundulylimitlandownerandpropertyownerrights.Again,itkindofcomesbacktothisbalancingact.”
“It'sbecauseofvoters,itwasseenasamandatetothestate,andtoourlegislators,In2010,whenthevotersvotedaheadofthesunsetsupporttoOWEB,andforlotteryfundstobededicatedtoprotectionofournaturalresources,thatthereispoliticalwill.”
“Myperceptionasastate-levelenvironmentalregulatorisIthinkthereis.Ithinkit'saquestionofresourcesmorethanwill.Idothinkthatthecountyrecognizesthattheyhavewaterandlandmanagementresponsibilities,obviously,andthatdevelopmentcertainlyhasanimpactonwaterandlandmanagement.”
“No,nope.Idon'tknowhowseriouspeopleareabout...Sincefishprotection,fishrestoration,ourESArecoveryplanisnotmandatory.It'snotregulatory.There'snoreasonforanybodytodoanythingreally.Unlessthere'spoliticalwillandsomebodythatcanbackeitherthe...regulationseemstobepeelingback.NotthatIsayweneedmoreregulation.Wedon't.Weneedtoregulatewhatwehavetoregulatewiththetoolsthatwehave.Itfrustratesmetonoendthatweseemtobepeelingbacktomakeiteasierforpeopletodosomeofthesethings.So,istherethepoliticalwilltostandupandsaynomore?We'vegottodosomething.”
“Planninganddevelopmentisreallyourbig,bigmajortool.Asacitythatgrewupfrombeingsomewhatanti-development...”
“Politicalwillispoliticalwill.Itcomesandgoesaspeopleareelectedintooffice.
“There'salwaysthestressofwherefundingis,andavailablefunding.So,therecanbeshiftsinpoliticalwill,basedoncreationofjobs,presenceofcorporations.Thingslikethat.”
“Weactuallyown,thecountyownsabout3,400acresofforestlandthatwemanagefortimberproduction,thattherevenuefromthetimberoperationisoneofmyrevenuestreamsfortheparks,butit'salsokindofourownlaboratoryofbeingabletohaveavoiceandspeakaboutforestpolicyandforestissues,becausewe'renotjusttalkingaboutit,we'relivingitanddoingit.Sowegetalot,Idoalotofworkwiththecountycommissionersonforestpolicy,stateandfederalissuesaffectingforestlandsandforesthealth,andfire,andallthat.”
“Yeah,ifwe'regoingtohavetopayforParkswe'regoingtohavetodoalevy,whichishowwedoourownlocalpoliceforce.That'sthethingthatkindofhamstringsusonalotofthisstuffisthatwehavealowpermanenttaxrateanditwouldrequirealotofpoliticalwillamongthecitizenstoraisetheirowntaxratepermanently.Andparticularlytokindofentrustthatthegovernmentwouldbethestewardsofthoseincreasedrevenues.”
Alothingesonpublicopinion,andthecountyisdiversewithalargeurbanpopulationandalsomanypeoplewholiveinruralareas.
Basincoordinatorsarefundedbythestategeneralfund.Allofthesepositionsneedlegislativeapproval,soarevulnerablewhenattemptingtomakethebudgetbalance.
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ClackamasCountygovernmenthaslimitedjurisdictionoverlong-rangeplanningforwater,andthereforea“prettyminimalsurfacewatermanagementrole”.
CompetingscienceandpoliticsregardingendangeredfishlistingintheCRB
CurrentlythereisfederallitigationgoingonbetweentheNationalMarineFisheryServiceandFEMA,whichclaimsFEMA’sfloodplainregulationsareviolatingtheEndangeredSpeciesAct.Theoutcomeofthislawsuitmayrequirecitiesandcountiestoenforcelargerriparianbuffersandfloodplains.
Federalbudgetsarestaticordeclining-difficulttomaintainstaffinglevels,providesgoodandservices
FundingprovidedtoDEQhasgonedownconsistentlyeveryyear.Itisdependentoncongressionaldecisions.
Onthecountylevel,somearguethatcitiesshouldbepayingformoresource-waterprotectionstrategies.
PlanningandzoninghasbeeninOregonfor40years,somostpeopleunderstandthatthereareenvironmentalregulationsandthereisnotpushback.
Technicalsideversustheopinionsofindividualboardsorcommissioners-theydon’talwaysmatchup
TheCountyCommissionerscanhaveapendulumswing-inthepasttherewereTeaPartyRepublicans,nowisitlargelyprogressiveenvironmentalists.
Thecountyneedsacounty-widesurfacewaterdistricttointegrateplanningandmanagementaroundwaterinacomprehensiveway.Thisisaveryrealpossibilityinthenearfuture.
TheguidingdirectionfortheUSFSwillnotchangewithoutaforestplanrevision,whichisoverdue.Theearliesttherevisionmayhappenis2020.
Therearefederalmandatesonhowwatersystemswork,butchangesatthefederallevelareslow.
ThereisanopportunityforthecountytohaveaclimateactionplanandengagethelegislatureonstatewidegoalsthatalignwiththeParisClimateAccord.
Thereisnotpoliticalwilltoexpandthesizeofriparianbuffers-perceptionthatitwillcausehardshipforfarmersbyremovingproductivefarmland.
ThereispoliticalwillatODAfromleadershiptopromoteagwaterquality.Currentlythereisnotan“AgPracticesAct”,butthereisrecognitionthatifthingsaregoingthewrongwaythensomeonewillsaythisisnecessaryinordertomeasurelevelsofcompliancetostandardsandBMPs.
Utilitieshavecitycouncilsorelectedboards,andpoliticaldynamicsdefinitelyimpactdecisiondirections.“Youareconstantlyinthislearningandteachingyourelectedofficialswhatyoudoandhowyoudoit,andwhyweneedtoincreaserates,andhowweplanourwatersystemmasterplansplanningintothefuture,andhowwekindofoutlinetheimprovementswe're
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goingtomakeovertime,andthatcomesbacktowhatdoyouchargeforsystemdevelopmentchargesascommunitiesaregrowing.It'slikehowdoesthatnewgrowthpayintothesystem?Andit'snotrocketscience,butitiscomplicated,andasyougetnewpeopleeveryyear,youjusthavetocontinuenotonlytoremindthosethatareevensomewhataware,butweeducatethem.”
WastewateroutfallsarenotallowedontheClackamas(exceptionofEstacadaintotheClackamasandSandyintoTickleCreek).Aslongaspoliticiansmaintainthisrule,theCRBmightavoidmajorissueswithpharmaceuticalsinthewater.
Waterboardrepresentsthepeople-mayberesistanttorestrictionofwateruse
Yes,citiesandwateragenciesasagroup,butsometimesonanindividualbasiseveryonestillwants“theirwaterandtheirright”.
4.StakeholderMessagingandOutreach
“Andunfortunately,thathassomewhattodowiththewayourratesare...youknow,howourwaterratesworkinthatwedon'tdoagoodjobcommunicatingtopeoplewhatratespayfor,andprobablyweneedtodoabetterjobofmakingourbaselineflatratecoverjustoperationmaintenanceyear-round,andthen...Mostpeoplehavetieredrates,sointhesummerthemoreyouuse,themoreyoupay.”
“Onceweadoptedourdrinkingwaterprotectionplan,itbecameclearveryquicklythatthere'sahugeoutreachcomponentinthewatershedalso,sowekindofhavetwoaudiences.Oneareourcustomers,becauseit'stheirwaterdollarsthatarefundingourprogramsupriver.Andthenourotheraudienceisthepeoplewhoareactuallyinthewatershed,inthattheirland-useactionscanimpactourdrinkingwatersource.”
“There'snoteethoranyregulatoryrequirement.Butwehavebeenengagedinourwatershedsincethelate'90s,andIthinkthatallofourwaterprovidersunderstandthatandrecognizethatbecauseweareoneofthebiggestusersofthebasinthatwehavetoshowthatwearegoodstewardsandthatwearenottakingforgrantedwhereourwaterresourcescomefrom.Andtheyalsorecognizethatthemorewecandotobeengagedinthewatershedandhelppeopleunderstand,andhelpmaintainahighqualityofwater,thebetterabilitywehavetokeepourtreatmentcostslow.”
Arealthreatispeoplenotknowingorunderstandingtheirroleinmanagingwaterqualityfromagricultureactivities,forexamplemanurefromhorsesorotherfarmanimals.
CountyEmergencyManagementdoesmediablitzes(andsocialmedia)regardinghumanhealthandsafety,includingboilwaterannouncements,flooding,fire,snowandice,drought.
Curtailmentplansvarybywaterproviders,butmostdon’twanttotelltheiruserstheyarerequiredtorestrictuse,theywouldratheritbevoluntary.
DEQreportsareavailableontheirwebsite,butpeopleneedtoknowthattheycangolookthemup.
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Firedanger-attimesofhighfiredanger,crewsgooutandmakecontactwithcampersandimplementpublicuserestrictions.Socialmediaisbeingusedmoreforpublicoutreach,andrecentfireswithairqualityimpactshaveraisedfiredangerawareness.
ForestryhasasetofstandardsandBNPsinOregon.Agricultureputsforwardconditions,andtrytoworkwithfarmerstobeincompliance.Theconditionsvarydependingontheclimateandregion.Thereare38regionsinOregon.Thismakesdealingwithregulationsverycomplicated.Farmerscanreceivefundingandtechnicalassistancetogetintocompliance.
Issueswithpesticideuse.Thereisaneedtopartnerwithcompanies,likepesticidesalesreps,tohelpwitheducationoffarmersintermsofappropriateamountstoapply.Homeownersneededucationtoo.Justbecauseyoucanbuyitandit’slegaldoesn’tmeanyouneedtoapplyasmuchasyoudo.
It’sdifficulttomaintainthemessaging-peopleonlycarewhensomethinggoeswrong.Itisdifficulttogetpeopletocareaboutmessagingaroundpreparednessforfutureproblems,likeclimatechange.
Managerscanchooselanguagethatappealstoeveryone,like“drinkingwater”insteadofjust“water”.
ManypeoplearemovingtotheregionandtheClackamasdoesserveasPortland’s“backyardplayground”,sothereisconstantneedforpublicawarenessandoutreach.Theabilitytodothisisfundingdependent.
Messagingisstilltargetedatoutdoorwateruseinsummermonths,promotingconservation.Withclimatechangethisisgoingtobeevenmoreimportant.
Needtoeducatepeopleaboutminimizingamountofpesticidesenteringtheriverandstreams
ODA-24hourpesticideconcernlineforthepublic
ODAprogramfocusedonnon-pointsourcepollutionworkswithfarmers,ranchersandtheagcommunityasawhole.Thisincludesmaintainingstreamside-vegetation.
OutreachandmessagingthroughtheClackamasRivercleanupscausedthecommissionerstostepupandtakeaction.Bansonunsanctionedalcoholandenforcementefforts.
Peoplereallyconnectwithsalmonandsteelheadmessaging(ascomparedtootherspecies).Butmessagingisstillaprobleminthisarea,itoftenfallsondeafears.ThereisanattempttoreachMillennials,asthenextgenerationofanglers.
Privatelandownersgetinvolvedwithrivercleanup,andvoluntaryplacegarbagereceptaclesontheirpropertiesadjacenttotheriver.
Septicsystemowners-thecountyrequiresareportthatthesystemisputinbyalicensedinstaller.Thereisadesirebythecountytohavemoreresourcestobemorepro-active,likegrantstoupgradesystemsandtimetogooutandmarketittolandowners.Thereisaneedtopitchitasahuman-healthissue.
Sharingtechnicalinformationwithboardsandcommissioners
50
Shiftsawayfromjustmonitoring,insteadformpartnershipsofstakeholders,andsharedata/transparency
TheClackamasRiverBasinCouncildoesoutreachtothecommunityforanumberofprojects,liketheShadingOurStreamsprogram,theymakeparticipantsfeelproudoftheirachievements.TheCRBCisalsoinvolvedwithschooleducationprogramsaroundfish.
TheClackamasSoilandWaterConservationDistrictarethesourceofinformation,educationandresourcesatalocalscaleforlandowners.Theyserveanimportantrolebecauseoftheirrelationshipswithlandowners.Ithelpstheyarenotaregulatoryagency.
TheDepartmentofStateLandshas“biggerhammer”.Theycancitepeoplewhopulloutvegetationinwetlandswithoutapermit.
ThePesticidesStewardshipProgram-engagedinoutreachactivitiesandassessments
Therearemanynewfarmers,peoplecomingandgoing,manydon’tknowtherulesexist.Orhavehadyearsanddecadesofbadpractices.Itisdifficulttoconnectwithfarmers,theyoftenhave“offfarm”jobsandnotalotoftime.
Thereisaneedforbetterpublicunderstandingofdangertodrinkingwater,includingwastemanagement,dumping,etc.
Usefundstoincentivizepeopletochange-irrigationupgradeprojects,butmustincludewatergauges,forexample.
Waterdistrictshaveaneedtoconstantlyeducateelectedofficialsaboutwhattheydoandhowtheydoit,whyrateincreasesmaybenecessary,andlongtermplanningneeds.
Waterqualityreportsdistributedtolandowners
51
Appendix B.1 – Precipitation data and methods 1.Data
In-situprecipitationdataisfromtheCooperativeObserverNetwork(COOP)dataset,aNationalCentersforEnvironmentalInformationproduct.COOPdatacomesfromanetworkofover10,000volunteerobserversspanningtheUnitedStates.TheEstacada2SE(41’elevation)andtheOregonCity(17’elevation)COOPstationsarelocatednearurbancentersinthelowerClackamaswatershed(USGScatalogingunit:17090011).In-situsnowwaterequivalent(SWE)dataisfromtheNaturalResourcesConservationServices(NRCS)SnowTelemetry(SNOTEL)network.ThePeavineRidge(3420’elevation)andClackamasLake(3400’elevation)SNOTELstationsarelocatedintheupperClackamaswatershed.TheSNOTELnetworkconsistsofovermorethan800automateddatacollectionsiteslocatedinhigh-elevationmountainwatersheds.Modern-EraRetrospectiveanalysisforResearchandApplications,Version2reanalysis(MERRA-2)wasusedforatmosphericcirculationvariablessealevelpressure(SLP),500-hPageopotentialheight(Z500),250-hPawindspeed(V250),andintegratedvaportransport(IVT;Gelaroetal.2017).MERRA-2isaproductoftheNationalAeronauticsandSpaceAdministration(NASA)availablefrom1980.MERRA-2has0.5°x0.625°spatialresolutionandhourlytemporalresolution.GRIDMETdatawasusedforsurfacetemperatureandregionalprecipitationfigures.GRIDMETisaUniversityofIdahoproductavailablefrom1979.GRIDMETdatahas1/24°x1/24°spatialresolutionanddailytemporalresolution(Abatzoglou2013).GRIDMETdatacombineshightemporalresolutiondatafromtheNorthAmericanLandDataAssimilationSystemPhase2(NLDAS-2)withhighspatialresolutiondatafromtheParameter-elevationRegressionsonIndependentSlopesModel(PRISM).
2.Methodology
2.1 ExtremeprecipitationeventdefinitionThisstudyevaluates1-daytotalprecipitationaccumulationoverthe37-yeartimeperiodfrom1980(correspondingtotheavailabilityofreanalysisdata)through2016.BothCOOPstationswereusedtocalculate the 90th percentile 1-day total precipitation accumulation based on wet days (>0 mmprecipitation at either station). In other words, the daily wet day precipitation total frequencydistributionusedtoidentifythe90thpercentilewasconstructedusingdataaggregatedfrombothstations.IftheprecipitationamountateitheroftheCOOPstationswasgreaterthanorequaltothe90thpercentile1-daytotalprecipitationaccumulationthreshold,thedaywasconsideredanextremeprecipitationevent.
2.2 Large-scalemeteorologicalpatternsassociatedwithextremeprecipitationdaysCompositesofSLP,Z500,andV250wereconstructedfortheextremeprecipitationdaytimeseries(Figure 3). These variables describe atmospheric circulation near the surface, in the mid-troposphere,andnearthetopofthetroposphererespectivelyandtogetherprovideacomprehensivediagnosisofthedrivingatmosphericmechanismsforextremeprecipitationdays.Theself-organizingmaps (SOMs) approach is employed to identify the range of large-scalemeteorological patternsassociatedwithextremeprecipitationdayswithintheCw.SOMsareaclassofunsupervisedneuralnetworksthattake,inthiscase,2-dimensionalgeophysicaldataasinputandsorttheinputdatainto
52
asetofmxnclustersor“nodes”whereeachdayassignedtoagivennodehasweatherpatternswithsimilar characteristics as the other days assigned to that node. The SOMs approach has beendemonstrated as an effective and robust tool forstudying synoptic-scalemeteorologicalpatterns(LennardandHegerl2015;Swalesetal.2016).ThisstudyleveragestheSOMsapproachedusedbyLoikithetal.(2017)usingtheweatherpatternsateachofthethreeatmosphericlevelsforeachdayidentifiedashavingextremeprecipitationasinputtotheSOM.Basedonasensitivityanalysis,a4x3nodeconfigurationwasfoundtooptimallycapturethesynopticpatternvariabilitywhileminimizingpatternrepetition.The12-nodestructureisintendedtomaximizeutilitybypractitioners.
Nodecompositesofvariousdynamicalvariables(IVT,surfacewinds,surfacetemperature,regionalprecipitation, and precipitation anomaly) were created based on SOM assignment of extremeprecipitationdaystothe12nodes.TheRutzAtmosphericRiver(AR)Catalog,basedonMERRA-2inputdatawasusedtoidentifyatmosphericrivers(Rutzetal.2014)fordaysassignedtoeachnode.This studymaintains the Rutz et al. (2014) definition of ARs: narrow corridors of water vaportransport>2000kminlengthwithintegratedvaportransport(IVT)>250kgm-1s-1.ThelatitudeandlongitudeboundsusedfortheRutzARindicatorwere[4546]and[-124-122]respectively.
2.3 SWEchange(Preliminaryresearch)Thisstudyevaluates1-daychangesinSWEoverthe36-yeartimeperiodfrom1981(correspondingtotheinstallationofSNOTELstationsintheClackamaswatershed)through2016.Atbothstations,theSWEtimeserieswassortedintothreeclasses:daysofincreasedSWE,daysofdecreasedSWEanddayswithnochangeinSWE.SOMsanalysisasdescribedabovewasperformedonincreasedSWEdaysandondecreasedSWEdaysatPeavineRidgeandseparatelyatClackamasLake.
AppendixB.2–Extremeprecipitationself-organizingmaps
While the composites in Figure 2 are physically interpretable and provide plausiblemechanisms for extreme precipitation over the Cw, it is likely that there is considerable intra-composite variability. To identify the range of weather patterns associated with extremeprecipitationovertheCw,Figure3showstheSOMsresultswhereextremeprecipitationdaysaresortedinto12nodes.Eachdaywithextremeprecipitationrecordedisassignedtooneofthe12nodessuchthatadayassignedtoNode1wouldhaveastronglowpressuretothenorthwest,adeeptroughtothewestatZ500,andastrongjetstreakorientedfromsouthwesttonortheast.TheSOMsapproachhighlights the large range ofweather patterns that can bring heavy precipitation to the Cw. Forexample,therightsideoftheSOMtendstobemoreassociatedwithhighpressurewhiletheleftsideoftheSOMismoreassociatedwithlowpressure.
53
Figure 3. 12-node self-organizing maps for the 1166 greater than 90th percentile accumulation days showing (left) sea level pressure (SLP; contours at 5 hPa spacing), (center) 500 hPa geopotential height (contours at 50 m spacing), and (right) 250 hPa jet stream winds (contours at 5 m s-1 spacing). InFigure4,wesorttheoccurrenceofdaysassignedtoeachofthe12nodesbymonth.ThecirclesizeinFigure4isproportionaltothenumberofdaysfromthecorrespondingmonththatareassignedtoeachnodewithlargercirclesindicatingmoredays.Mostnodesareprimarilycommoninthefallandwinter months. Node 12 stands out as being a primarily summer pattern, which is physicallyconsistentwithexpectationsconsideringNode12inFigure3showsamuchdifferentpatternthantheothercoolseasonpatterns.Node11alsoshowssometendency towardsspringwhileNode4tendstobemostcommoninfall.
Figure 4. SOM dots plot showing node assignment along the x-axis and month along the y-axis. Dot size is proportional to the number of days in each node from each month. Dot shading indicates node frequency of occurrence with yellow nodes occurring most often and dark blue nodes occurring least.
54
The RMSE of each final node composite relative to all node input days is displayed in red at the top of the figure.
Togetabetterunderstandingofthemechanismsassociatedwithextremeprecipitationdays,Figure5showscompositeaveragesoftheintegratedwatervaportransport(IVT)fordaysassignedtoeachnode. IVT describes the total amount of water vapor that is being moved through the entireatmosphereateachdatapoint.WhenIVTisover250kg/m/s,thethresholdtobeconsideredanARisreached.OntopofeachnodecompositeinFigure5isthepercentofdaysassignedtothatnodethatwere identified as being associatedwith an AR according to the Rutz catalog. Node patternassociationwithARsisassignedtoweak,moderate,andstrong,consistingof0-40,41-70,71-100percentofpatterndayscoincidingwithapositiveARsignal.ThereisastrongassociationbetweenARsandnodes1,2,3,4,5,6and9.ThereisamoderateassociationbetweenARsandnodes10,11and12.ThereisaweakassociationbetweenARsandnodes7and8.ThehighestproportionofARdaysoccurwiththestrongestlowpressurepatterns,whilethelowestoccurrenceisforthehigherpressure patterns (see Figure 3 for corresponding patterns). This suggests that ARs are a keymechanismforbringingextremeprecipitationtotheCw,howevernotallextremedaysareassociatedwithanAR.
Figure 5. Node composites of integrated vapor transport (contours at 50 kg m-1 s-1 spacing). Bold contour indicates at 250 kg m-1 s-1 threshold for AR classification. Red numbers are the percent of events in each node that have a positive AR signal over the study area.
55
AppendixC.1--Turbidity,Discharge,andPrecipitationDynamics1.Data
ThreeUSGSgagingstationswerechosentoobtaindischargedataincubicmeterspersecond(CMS)andturbiditydatainFormazinNephelometricUnit(FNU)fromthewateryear2008to2017(Table1).Dischargeandturbiditydatacollectedwereonlyanalyzedforthewetseason,whichinthisstudywasdefinedasbetweenOctober1standMay29th.SummermonthsfromJunetoSeptemberwereneglectedinthisstudybecausethechosenwatershedsdonotreceiveasignificantamountofprecipitationsduringthedryseason.Precipitationdatawasalsocollectedonanhourlybasisinmillimeter(mm)fromthenearestPortlandHydraRainfallNetworkstationsduringthe10-yearstudyperiod.Landscapecharacteristicdatalikelandcovertypewerecollectedfromthe2011NationalLandCoverDatabase(NLCD)toidentifythepercentageofurban,agricultural,andforestcoverpercentageineachsub-basindelineatedfromthestudystations.
2.Methods
2.1StormIdentification
IdentifyingstormsandheavyprecipitationswerenotstraightforwardbecausehydroclimateinthePacificNorthwestishighlyinfluencedbyseasonality,atmosphericcirculationpatterns,andtheCascademountainrange.BothClackamasRiverandJohnsonCreekareinthelow-lyingvalleyswestoftheCascades,whichexhibitmildyear-roundtemperatures,substantialrainfallduringthewinter,andhigheraccumulationofprecipitationinupperaltitudes.Weidentifiedmajorstormswithcorrespondingelevateddischargeandturbiditylevels.Namely,weuseda20%thresholdexceedanceofthemonthlyaveragedischarge.Durationofeachmajordischargeeventwaslimitedtolessthansevendays.Stormselectioncriteriaalsoincludedanintra-stormperiodofnolessthan8hoursandinter-stormnomorethan24hours.Onceindividualstormeventswereidentifiedbydischargepeaks,thecumulativeprecipitationamountforthedischargepeakdayandthetwodayspriorweresummed.Half-hourlydischargedatawerecollectedatthebeginningoftherisingcurveofthehydrographuntildischargevaluesreturnedtotheinitialstatebeforethestorm.Correspondingturbidityvalueswerealsocollectedforthesametimeframeevery30minutes.StormswereidentifiedforallselectedstationsbeginninginOctober2008andendinginMay2017.Stormsidentifiedwerealsoseparatedbyseason,wherestormsoccurredduringOctoberandNovemberwereclassifiedasearlywetseason;DecembertoFebruarywasmidwetseason,andMarchtoMaywasthelatewetseason.
2.2HysteresisModels
Accordingtohysteresismethodsinpreviousstudies,hysteresismodelscanquantifybyindicestoassessthedifferenceinhysteresisloopshapeanddirectionatmultipletimeandspacescales.Usually,hysteresisloopsexhibiteithercircular,eight-shaped,linear,orscatterbehaviorfordischargeandturbidity[1,2].Inthisstudy,weborrowedthemethodsfromLawler(2006)duetoitsabilitytocalculatethehysteresisindexatmultipleincrementsandaveragingthemtoobtainadimensionlessHIandalsobyinterpolatingturbidityvaluesatthemid-pointstreamflowofeachevent.Theadvantageofusingthismethodisthathysteresisresultsallowmodeluserstoconducta
56
robuststatisticaltestandcomparestormloopfordifferenteventsatdifferentsites.WefirstnormalizedturbidityanddischargevaluesusingEq.(1)and(2)sothedifferentmagnitudeofstormscanbecompared.
𝑁𝑜𝑟𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑧𝑒𝑑𝑄- = /01/203
/2451/203(1)
𝑁𝑜𝑟𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑧𝑒𝑑𝑇𝑈- = 890189203
89245189203(2)
WhereQiandTUirepresentthetimestepdischargeandturbidity,andQmax/TUmaxandQmin/TUminrepresentthemaximumandminimumofdischargeandturbidity(Lloydetal.2016a).Thenweusedtheraisinglimbturbidityvaluestosubtractthefallinglimbvaluesandobtainthehysteresisindex(HI).PositiveHIindicatesclockwisehysteresisloop,whereasnegativeHIindicatesanticlockwiseloop.WedefinedhysteresisloopintoeightclassesaccordingtomethodsbyZueccoetal.(2016).Thefigureofeightlooppatternswhenthedirectionofthehysteresisloopshiftsdirectionsduringthemiddleofthehighdischargeevent.HysteresisindexforeachstormeventswascalculatedafterclassifyingloopsusingthederivedequationfromLloydetal.(2016)andZueccoetal.(2016)inEq.(3)
𝐻𝐼 = 𝑇𝑈<=_?@AB − 𝑇𝑈D=_?@AB (3)
whereHIrepresentsthehysteresisindex,computedwiththerisinglimb(RL_Norm)andfallinglimb(FL_Norm)ofnormalizedturbidityusingjavascriptdevelopedbyZueccoetal.(2016).Weexaminedthetemporalvariabilityofhysteresisindexandlooppatternsbyseasonandlookedforspatialvariabilityacrossallfourstudiedstations.
2.3StatisticalModels
Spearman’sranknon-parametriccorrelationmodelwasusedtocomparedischarge,turbidity,andprecipitationvariablesforeachidentifiedstorminRv.3.5.1(RCoreTeam2013).Variablescomparedweredischargemaximum,minimum,andrange;turbiditymaximum,minimum,andrange;hysteresisindex,and3-daycumulativeprecipitation.Correlationcoefficientsforstormsineachstudiedstationwerecalculatedontwodifferenttimescales(wateryearandseason).P-valuesofeachcorrelationtestwasexaminedtoevaluatethestatisticalsignificance.Forturbidityanddischargevariables,thepositivelogarithmicrelationshiphasbeenobservedinpreviousstudies[3–6]betweensedimentconcentrationanddischarge.Sinceturbiditymeasurementswerefoundtobehighlycorrelatedtosedimentconcentrationandreliabletoapproximatesuspendedsedimentconcentration[7,8],weusedlog-transformedturbidityvaluestoconstructsimilarregressionwithlog-transformeddischargeinSPSS23(IBMCorp.2017).Forothervariables,theregularlinearregressionmodelswereusedtotestthecontributionofeachindependentvariablesandtheirabilitytopredictthedependentvariables.Ratingcurveandlinearregressionlineslopeequationwerecalculatedalongwiththecoefficientofdetermination(R2).
57
3.Results
Table C1. Number of hours turbidity values exceeded 10 FNU each month from WY 2009-2017
Figure C1. Correlation between number of days when turbidity values exceeded 10 FNU, annual mean discharge, and 3-day cumulative precipitation
WaterYear Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep SUM
2009 - 56 53 209 42 3 3 85 3 - - - 451
2010 - - 50 35 - 62 18 3 72 4 - - 243
2011 - - 186 54 - - - - - - - - 240
2012 - 38 75 274 21 140 85 1 10 14 - - 656
2013 18 95 73 15 - 23 18 - - - 1 24 264
2014 30 1 49 - 205 223 8 10 1 - - - 525
2015 1 28 76 31 - - - - - - - - 135
2016 - 30 125 - 2 - - - - - - - 157
2017 - - - - 80 51 3 - - - - - 133
SUM 49 246 685 616 349 500 133 98 85 18 1 24 2801
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Figure C2. Number of hours where turbidity exceeded 10 FNU each month from WY 2009-2017
Figure C3. Selected storms hysteresis in water year 2013, 2015, and 2017 at Estacada
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Hours
Date
201720162015201420132012201120102009
59
Figure C4. Selected storms hysteresis in water year 2013, 2015, and 2017 at Oregon City
Figure C5. Log Discharge range and turbidity maximum rating curves by nonlinear regression model at studied sites; n=59 (Oregon City & Estacada)
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Figure C6. Linear regression models of turbidity maximum and cumulative precipitation for study sites; n=59 (Oregon City & Estacada)
Table C2. Summary of annual discharge, turbidity, and precipitation values at Estacada and Oregon City
Estacada OregonCity NCCWCTurbidity #of
StormsIdentifiedWater
YearAnnualMeanDischarge
AnnualMeanofDailyTurbidity
Max
AnnualMean
Discharge
AnnualMeanofDaily
TurbidityMax
#ofDays>10FNU
2009 2727 7.64 3274 10.72 23 6
2010 2689 5.93 3113 5.05 14 6
2011 3360 6.23 4139 12.34 45 3
2012 3253 10.46 4159 13.56 28 8
2013
2689 5.28 3305 6.17 15 8
2014 2880 6.37 3525 6.58 26 11
2015
2063 2.88 2483 4.95 11 5
2016 2723 2.95 3460 6.44 16 6
2017
3343 2.97 4394 7.41 30 13
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Table C3. Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients values by study sites and season (*significant at the 0.1 level; ** significant at the 0.05 level; n=sample size). Highest correlation coefficient values are shaded for each location.
StationDischarge&Turbidity Turbidity&Precipitation
Oct-Nov Dec-Feb Mar-May Oct-Nov Dec-Feb Mar-MayOregonCity 0.73* 0.89** 0.68** 0.65* 0.56** 0.72**
(n=11) (n=33) (n=15) (n=11) (n=33) (n=15)
Estacada 0.91** 0.71** 0.84** 0.22 0.63** 0.67**
(n=13) (n=30) (n=16) (n=13) (n=30) (n=16)
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