Jamie Davies Head of Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Business Monitor International Oscar Mazza Consumer & Healthcare Industry Head Citi Transaction Services Latin America The Pharmaceutical & Healthcare Industry in Latin America Citi’s Online Academy Presents:
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Jamie Davies Head of Pharmaceuticals & HealthcareBusiness Monitor International
Oscar MazzaConsumer & Healthcare Industry HeadCiti Transaction Services Latin America
The Pharmaceutical & Healthcare Industry in Latin America
Citi’s Online Academy Presents:
Agenda
Introduction
Market drivers
Risk/Reward Ratings
Company Activity
Case Studies
Q&A
0 min 30 min
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Introduction
• Established in 1984.
• Headquartered in London, with regional offices in Singapore, Johannesburg and New York City.
• Clients include corporations, investment banks, consultancies, governments and academic institutions.
• Over 100 research analysts.
Image: the City of London
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The Global Context
BMI View: moderate risk, moderate reward
Pharmaceutical Sales In 2011
Latin America US$70bnEurope US$329bn
Middle East US$16bn
Africa US$19bn
North America US$358bn
Asia US$265bn
Source: BMI
4
The Global Outlook
BMI View: emerging markets to drive industry growth
Latin America Sales (EURmn) (LHS) Latin America sales as % of global sales (RHS)
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Local Company Case Study: Genomma
BMI View: should concentrate on its domestic market
Source: Bloomberg
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The Relative Performance Of Genomma Lab Internacional And The Mexico IPC Index
Genomma Mexico IPC Index
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Market Case Study: Brazil
2011 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f CAGR
Current forecast
Expenditure (BRLbn)
42.9 47.9 53.3 58.9 64.4 10.7
y-o-y % growth
16.4 11.7 11.2 10.5 10.1
Early 2011 forecast
Expenditure (BRLbn)
39.6 42.6 46.1 49.9 54.1 8.1
y-o-y % growth
7.5 7.6 8.3 8.0 8.6
Image: Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (Fiocruz)
BMI View: the recent outperformer
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2009 2010 2011 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f
Brazil's Pharmaceutical Market
Sales (US$bn) Change % y-o-y
• Highlighted by multinationals.
• Pricing pressures.
• Unfair public-private partnerships?
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Market Case Study: Mexico
2011 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f CAGR
Current forecast
Expenditure (MXNbn)
161 175 189 204 220 8.0
y-o-y % growth
8.5 8.3 8.1 7.9 7.7
Early 2011 forecast
Expenditure (MXNbn)
152 156 161 165 170 2.8
y-o-y % growth
2.5 2.6 2.8 2.9 2.9
Image: Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) oil rig in the Gulf of Mexico
BMI View: a positive surprise
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2009 2010 2011 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f
Mexico's Pharmaceutical Market
Sales (US$bn) Change % y-o-y
• No energy liberalisation?
• Dependent on US economy.
• General security concerns.
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Market Case Study: Venezuela
2011 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f CAGR
Current forecast
Expenditure (VEFbn)
33.3 41.2 49.8 59.3 69.5 20.2
y-o-y % growth
24.6 23.8 21.1 19.0 17.1
Early 2011 forecast
Expenditure (VEFbn)
29.4 36.1 42.8 49.9 57.6 18.3
y-o-y % growth
10.0 23.0 18.4 16.7 15.4
Image: Hugo Chavez
BMI View: October 2012 election is key
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2009 2010 2011 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f
Venezuela's Pharmaceutical Market
Sales (US$bn) Change % y-o-y
• High oil prices.
• Repatriation of revenues.
• Anti-American sentiment.
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Market Case Study: Argentina
2011 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f CAGR
Current forecast
Expenditure (ARSbn)
37.9 45.4 53.7 62.9 72.8 17.7
y-o-y % growth
30.7 19.6 18.4 17.1 15.7
Early 2011 forecast
Expenditure (ARSbn)
34.2 39.9 46.2 53.2 60.9 15.5
y-o-y % growth
17.2 16.7 15.8 15.2 14.3
Image: Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos, INDEC
BMI View: consistently defying risks
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2009 2010 2011 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f
Argentina's Pharmaceutical Market
Sales (US$bn) Change % y-o-y
• Under-reporting of inflation.
• Patent approval backlog.
• Import restrictions.
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Conclusion
BMI View: crucial to identify opportunities and risks
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Local currency market growth
(2011-2016 CAGR)
x-axis = per-capita pharmaceutical spending in 2011 (US$); size of bubble = absolute market size (US$bn)
The Pharmaceutical Markets Of Latin America
Costa Rica
Mexico
Panama
Uruguay
El Salvador
Colombia
Honduras
Guatemala
Peru
Bolivia
ParaguayNicaragua
Ecuador
Brazil
Chile
Argentina
Venezuela
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Questions
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