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Contact: Census and Demography Analysis UnitTel: (267) 3671300Fax: (267) 3952201
November, 2020
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Statistics Botswana
Cities/Towns and Villages Projections 2020
i
Preface
This stats brief provides population projections for the year 2020. In this stats brief, the reference point of the population projections was the 2011 Population and Housing Census, in which the total population by age and sex is available. Population projections give a picture of what the future size and structure of the population by sex and age might look like. It is based on knowledge of the past trends, and, for the future, on assumptions made for three components of population change being fertility, mortality and migration. The projections are derived from mathematical formulas that use current populations and rates of growth to estimate future populations.
The population projections presented is for Cities, Towns and Villages excluding associated localities for the year 2020. Generally, population projections are more accurate for large populations than for small populations and are more accurate for the near future than the distant future. It is therefore important to note that estimates for smaller villages should be used with caution.
They are a good initiative that provides an estimate of the population size into the future. They also provide an impetus for the Policy makers to have established evidence-based decision making processes as well as equitable allocation of resources.
The report will be useful for planning and other purpose at locality level.
_________________Dr Burton S. MguniStatistician GeneralNovember 2020
Population Projections Methodology Used........................................................................................................................1
Table 1: Population Projections by Cities/Towns and Sex -2020.........................................................................................1Table 1.1: Distribution of Census Population by Sex.............................................................................................................2Table 1.2: Distribution of Projected Population by Sex........................................................................................................2Table 2: Population Projections by Cities/Towns and Sex -2020................................................................................3Figure 1: Percentage Population Distribution of Cities/Towns-2020................................................................................3
Table 3 : Projected Population by Age group and Sex -2020 (Medium Scenario)............................................................5Table 4: Population Estimates by Cities/Towns and Age Group- 2020.........................................................................6Table 5: Population Estimates by District and Age Group -2020...................................................................................7Table 6: Population Estimates by District and Age Group-2020.....................................................................................8Table 7: Population Estimates By District and Age Group -2020..................................................................................10Table 8: Population Estimates by Village and Sex-2020..................................................................................................11Table 9: Population Estimates by Village and Sex (Barolong District)-2020..................................................................12Table 10: Population Estimates by Village and Sex (Ngwaketse West)-2020................................................................13Table 11: Population Estimates by Village and Sex (South East District)-2020....................................................................13Table 12: Population Estimates of Village and Sex ( Kweneng East)-2020........................................................................14Table 13: Population Estimates by village and Sex (Kweneng West District)-2020...........................................................15Table 14: Population Estimates by Village and Sex (Kgatleng District)-2020.................................................................16Table 15: Population Estimates by Village and Sex (Serowe Palapye District)-2020....................................................17Table 16: Population Estimates by Village and Sex (Central Mahalapye District)-2020.................................................18Table 17: Population Estimates by Village and Sex (Central Bobonong)-2020...............................................................19Table 18: Population Estimates by Village and Sex (Central Boteti District-2020)............................................................20Table 19: Population Estimates by Village and Sex (Central Tutume District)-2020).......................................................21Table 20: Population Estimates by Village and Sex (North East District)-2020.................................................................22Table 21: Population Estimates by Village and Sex (Ngamiland District)-2020............................................................23Table 22: Population Estimates by Village and Sex (Ngamiland West District) - 2020.................................................24Table 23: Population Estimates by Village and Sex (Chobe District)-2020.......................................................................25Table 24: Population Estimates by Village and Sex (Ghanzi District)-2020....................................................................25Table 25: Population Estimates by Village and Sex (Kgalagadi North District)-2020...................................................26Table 26: Population Estimates by Village and Sex (Kgalagadi South)-2020..............................................................26
1Statistics Botswana
Cities/Towns and Villages Projections 2020
INTRODUCTION
This brief provides supplementary population projections for Cities, Towns and Major villages for the period of 2020. In this publication, the starting point of these population projections is the 2011 Population and Housing Census, in which the total population by age and sex is available. The size and composition of the future population have been projected to 2020.
Population projections can be described as an illustration of growth and change in population which occurs if certain assumptions of the level of fertility, mortality and migration were to prevail over a period of projections.
Statistics Botswana has done a similar exercise after the 2011 Population and Housing Census by producing a population projections publication (2011-2026). The document developed projections at a national level using the Cohort component (the preferred method of population projection).
Population Projections Methodology Used
The most basic methods of calculating numerical population change over a period of time is the balancing equation:
P1+ (B-D) + (I-E) = Pt
Where P1 = is the population at base periodB = is the number of births in the population during period 0D= is the number of Deaths in the population during period 0I= is the number of Immigrants into population during the period 0E = is the number of emigrants from the population during the period tPt = is the population at time t
The population of a given area can change as a result of fertility (people being born), Mortality (people dying), immigration (people moving in) and Emigration (people moving out). The assumptions are based on demographic trends observed between 2001 and 2011. Given an annual increase of 1.9% a geometric series methodology for projections is applied.
Pt=Po(1+r)^t
Where Pt= is the population at time t PO= is the Base population at time or= annual growth ratet=interval time
Table 1 below illustrates comparisons between the 2011 Population and housing census , the 2017 Botswana Demographic Survey and the 2020 projected population. The the total population for the 2011 Botswana Population and Housing Census (PHC), was 2,024,904 with an annual growth rate of 1.9 percent. Projections following the 2011 PHC estimated the population of Botswana to reach 2,374,698 in 2020 with approximately 50.7 percent of females and 49.3 percent of males. The 2017 Botswana Demographic Survey estimated the population at 2,154,863, with 1,034,678 males and females at 1,120,285.
Table 1: Population Distribution by SexPopulation Male Female Total2011 Census 988,957 1,035,947 2,024,9042017 BDS 1,034,578 1,120,285 2,154,8632020 Projected 1,171,629 1,203,068 2,374,697
Cities/Towns and Villages Projections 2020
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Table 1.1 below indicates that the sex ratio at birth was 102 males per 100 females. This means that there were more males being born than females.However from age groups 15-19, the ratio shifts to 99 males per 100 females. This ratio continues to show more women surviving in the subsequent age groups as compared to their male counterparts, from age groups 40-44 to age groups 80+
Table 1.1: Distribution of Census Population by Sex
Table 1.2 below shows that the total projected population stood at 2,374,697 from the previous figure of 2, 024,904 of the 2011 Population and Housing Census and the 2017 Botswana Demographic Survey which accounted for 2,154,863. The sex ratio for the 2011 Population and Housing Census and the 2020 projected population demonstrate the same characteristics of more males being born than females, but chances of survival on the subsequent years favouring the females than the males.
Table 1.2: Distribution of Projected Population by Sex
Table 2 below shows that bout 521,341 of the population was estimated to be residing in Cities and Towns, out of which 274, 225 (52. 6 percent) was estimated to be residing in Gaborone City by the year 2020 while 117, 301 (22.5 percent) was estimated to be living in Francistown city.
By 2020, Selibe Phikwe population is projected to reach 58,532 and Lobatse population is projected to be 34,361. Jwaneng and Orapa populations are projected to reach 21,332 and 11,290 respectively, while Sowa Town is projected to increase by 0.8 percent to reach 4,262 in 2020.
Table 2: Population Projections by Cities/Towns and Sex -2020
Cities/TownsMale Female Total
Number Percent Number Percent Number PercentGaborone 134,493 52.3 139,848 52.9 274,341 52.6Francistown 56,983 22.2 60,245 22.8 117,228 22.5Lobatse 16,755 6.5 17,607 6.7 34,361 6.6
Figure 1: Percentage Population Distribution of Cities/Towns-2020
The majority of the population residing in Cities and Towns is in age group 15-64. About 24.7 percent of the population residing in Cities and Towns is aged younger than 15 and a small proportion is aged 65 and above.
The largest share of the population is projected to be residing in villages, approximately 1,212,199. Of these people, approximately 34.9 percent is aged younger than 15 while and estimated 5.5 percent is 65 years and above.
Cities/Towns and Villages Projections 2020
4 Statistics Botswana
Appendix
5Statistics Botswana
Cities/Towns and Villages Projections 2020
Table 3 : Projected Population by Age group and Sex -2020 (Medium Scenario)
Age Group2011 2020Male Female Male Female
0-4 119,999 117,315 115,970 113,806
5-9 108,544 106,618 129,342 126,843
10-14 104,419 102,875 115,429 113,061
15-19 104,818 105,928 107,435 105,508
20-24 97,249 103,101 104,428 102,849
25-29 101,194 106,658 103,581 104,702
30-34 84,515 86,027 97,930 102,668
35-39 68,435 66,784 98,672 102,200
40-44 48,767 50,530 79,848 80,019
45-49 37,881 44,380 62,738 61,490
50-54 29,742 36,620 44,154 47,229
55-59 24,368 29,681 34,233 41,530
60-64 17,344 20,240 26,549 33,579
65-69 12,243 15,504 20,449 25,668
70-74 9,464 12,797 13,354 16,547
75-79 6,968 10,924 8,752 12,127
80+ 13,007 19,965 8,766 13,244
Total 988,957 1,035,947 1,171,629 1,203,068
Cities/Towns and Villages Projections 2020
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Table 4: Population Estimates by Cities/Towns and Age Group- 2020