Cities of the future - Jan Sturesson

Cities of... - Opportunity... - Tomorrow ... - the Future...

Global Challange 2012 05 30

Jan Sturesson Global Leader Government and Public Services Partner

www.pwc.com

PwC 2

Introduction

PwC - Thought Leadership - Cities

II Simpósio Internacional PwC - Inovação em Gestão Pública

COGNITIVE LANDSCAPE

II Simpósio Internacional PwC - Inovação em Gestão Pública Experimentation 1 7 No-risk

Initiative 1 7 Lethargy

Connectivity 1 7 Disruption

Learning 1 7 Regression

Use of IC 1 7 Abuse of IC

Self-Reflection 1 7 Vanity

Cohesion 1 7 Disintegration

Leadership 1 7 Followership

Vision 1 7 Blindness

Openness 1 7 Autism

Intelligence

High ignorance/ Low Ignorance/

Low intelligence High Intelligence

Ignorance

The Ignorance Meter

Source. K.North

Är vi en intelligent eller ignorant stad?

Vision

”Creating the Society of the Future for the Citizens of Tomorrow - Today – together

with a more Trusted, Sustainable and Collaborating Government!

6

?

It is all about cities….or….

“There is no question that cities are the engines of economic growth and centres of dynamic social and cultural activities and development, although there

exist some contrary messages like the future lies in a living country side….”

John Naisbitt

Author and Futurist, USA

Slide 9

Seminarium Region Skåne 2009 01 22 Jan Sturesson

Visionsförverkligande -

Landsbygd

PwC 10

Maps…

Global Distribution of Population

Source: The Rise of the Mega-Region Richard

Florida, Tim Gulden & Charlotta Mellander

Global distribution of Economic Activity (LRP)



Global distribution of patent activity



Global distribution of star scientists (highly cited science

authors)



PwC 15

Perspective

Future of Future Cities !

“The future is not as it used to be – we need energizing visions, personal leadership and passion to be able to imagine possible futures to accomplish the mission of reinventing future cities”

From mega to meta - bigger and bigger…

The urban meets the rural –thought high speed transport and internet

Green, solar, wind etc. integrated

Without - or much less – cars...

Strategic business insourcing and citizen crowd sourcing

Social intelligence 2.0 – Local leverage on global mega trends *

3

Future of Future Cities !!

The future is not as it used to be – we need energizing visions, personal leadership and passion to be able to imagine possible futures to accomplish the mission of reinventing future cities

Stakeholder Collaboration - cross sectors – The new core business for city management

Holistic approach to sustainability – The “New Capitalism” …

Opened citizen participation and digital mass collaboration - through legitimate leadership

Reinventing the power of innovation and prototyping - big is beautiful, but in small scale…

3

The agenda of today and tomorrow…

Competitiveness Attractiveness

Sustainable

Development

Balanced

Growth

Citizen

Engagement

Effective

Service

Brand defining

A City Government Staircase to the Future…

Brand development

Innovation

Attractiveness

Experiences

Social care

Streets, water

Communication

Citizen Consultation

The vision of future

well fare and growth

”Old Core Business” – taken for granted…

Red Ocean – traditional business logic.

”New Core Business” – Brand,

Magnetism, Excitement, Attractiveness

for growth and well fare.

Blue Ocean – New Business Logic

Yesterday

Tomorrow

External control

Internal control

Collaboration

Risk Focus

Opportunity focus

PwC 20

Trends

Mega trends - effecting the strategic agenda !

• Uncertainty – the new normal – financial crisis, epidemics, catastrophes' and terrorism

• Globalization and localization Glocalisation*

• Competition & Collaboration Co-opetition*

• Territoryzation and flow

• Merging and fusion - territories and spheres melting together

• Urbanization (Urban corridors)

• Individualization

• Governmentization and Privatization

• Hi-tech (www, E-government)

• Hi-touch (Experience society)

Mega trends - effecting the strategic agenda !!

• Hi-tech (www, E-government)

• Hi-touch (Experience society)

• Peak oil and renewable energy

• Water – the new oil

• Mobility & Connectivity

• Transparency and openness

• Acceleration and time effectiveness – distance in minutes

• Integration – living, working, shopping and leisure

• Migration / segregation / integration (people, money, knowledge and values)

• Demographic changes and ageing

Some Global Mega, Giga or Tera Trends…

23

Globalization Glocalization

Financial / Economic crisis debt, deficit, economies under pressure

Urbanization Corridors, Urbanomics, territoryzation, rurbanization, “smartcitieszation”

Competition Co-opetition

Amalgamation (spheres of society, industries, etc.)

New Technologies ICT, E mobility, smart grids etc.

Knowledge & experience society

Individualization / personalization

Climate change / sustainability sustsinagility

Demographic changes aging - the silver potentials…

Collaborating

Society

Competing

Society

Local

Approach

Global

Approach

The Local club

The Local fight Everybody goes global

by themselves

Global

Innovation

Team • Uncertainty

•Glocal-ization

• Co-opetition

•Ra-plexity

The Future is different… The new normal 2.0


25











Economic Perspective E7 could overtake G7 by 2020

By 2030, the global GDP rankings (at PPPs) could read as follows:

1. China 2. US 3. India 4. Japan 5. Brazil 6. Russia 7. Germany 8. Mexico 9. France 10. UK

Source: World Bank for 2000-8, PwC projections of actual GDP in 2009-10 and trend GDP thereafter

Convergence Catch-Up Overtaking

GD

P a

t P

PP

s (

co

nsta

nt 2

00

8 I$

)

60000

50000

40000

30000

20000

10000

0

G7 GDP

E7 GDP

E7 includes China, India, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Indonesia and Turkey (the seven largest emerging economies).

28


29











Leverage on current trends and integrate strategy and operations in our value prop

Territory

Organization

Internal

External

Transforming a territory

(a city or a nation) for growth

and development

cross sectors

Developing wealth

and well fare -

effective processes

and efficient service

Transform through Strategic

Implementation

Prototyping

Smart Communities

ICT

Culture &

Leisure

Social Infrastructure

Environmental

Political Participation

Intellectual & Innovation

• Urban planning • Conventional &

Renewable Energy • Smart grids • Transportation • Water • Buildings/Housing • Lighting

• eGovernment • Data centers • Broadband • Wireless • E Payments • Digital economy

• Health • Safety & Security • Social integration &

cohesion

• Education • Small & Medium

Enterprises • Human Development

• Tourism • Leisure venues

management • Cultural venues

management

• Solid Waste management

• Water Waste management

• Air quality management

• Green areas

• Citizen consultation & participation

• Government outreach

31

Understanding the Smart Communities concept in a comprehensive and holistic manner

PwC

Slide 32

Det bästa från två världar…

Action, puls, täthet, ljud och ljus…

Relax, utrymme, stjärnljus, mörker och tystnad…

Slide 33

Seminarium Region Skåne 2009 01 22 Jan Sturesson

Samhällsentreprenör i Teckomatorp Samhällsentreprenörer i Teckomatorp

Future of Future Cities !!

The future is not as it used to be – we need energizing visions, personal leadership and passion to be able to imagine possible futures to accomplish the mission of reinventing future cities

Stakeholder Collaboration - cross sectors – The new core business for city management

Holistic approach to sustainability – The “New Capitalism” …

Opened citizen participation and digital mass collaboration - through legitimate leadership

Reinventing the power of innovation and prototyping - big is beautiful, but in small scale…

3

Creating a new playground for growth - stakeholder collaboration

Holistic approach to sustainability – The “New Capitalism”

Opportunity space…

The New Value Matrix for Societal Innovation – Opportunity Space

A City of

the Future

Sustainable Local Economy

Environmental

capital Social

capital

Participation and

political capital

Infrastructure

capital

ICT

capital

Culture and leisure

capital

Intellectual

capital

Prioritisation

Vision

Performance

& Risk

Partnerships Programme/

Project

Leadership Social

Intelligence City finance City Brand

Capital policy and

management

Performance &

Results KPIs

Delivery and Achievement

Enablers

Strategic

Ambition

Management

Capacity

Structure of PwC Cities Assessment Tool

PwC 39

Methodology - Facing the urban challenge

Social Capital

Human - or intellectual capital

Infrastructure capital

Environmental and natural resources

capital

Political and citizen participation capital Culture and

experience capital

Trade and industry capital &

immigration

Financial capital

Tourist and visitors capital

Welfare capital

How do we create a sense of community?

How do we utilise all of the human potential?

Do we have the infrastructure in place

to support growth?

How do we manage our

resources in a sustainable

manner? How do we promote citizen participation? How do we

create a liveable city?

Which policies should we adopt

to drive economic growth?

Are we financially

sustainable?

Do we have an attractive brand

for global visitors?

How do we guarantuee a sustainable level of

welfare?

PwC 40

A changing picture of urban success

Central thesis:

Cities of Opportunity - What makes the difference?

The more well-balanced a city is for both businesses and residents,

the better it will fare

City of the Future (CoF) measurement tool

Performance -

Policy

+

+

-

“Dreaming” city

Intelligent City: City of the future (CoF)

“Gambling” city “Ignorant” city

The results of the tool, coupled with further analysis, may give the city an idea of where it stands in relation to being or becoming a CoF and

how to chart its path towards becoming a CoF.

?

?

41 PwC

Assessing Policy vs. Performance

0

25

50

75

100 Vision

Leadership

Brand

Social Intelligence

Finance Capital

Intellectual Capital Social

Capital

Participation & Political

Capital

Culture & Leisure Capital

Environmental Capital

Infrastructure Capital

ICT Capital

Own Value

Benchmark

Best In Class

The above spider graph allows a city to assess where its capital strengths and weaknesses are, in comparison to best practice and

international benchmarks.

Illustrative

Capital model measurement tool for cities

43 PwC

PwC

Utrecht – City vs stakeholder perspective

City perspective

Stakeholder perspective

44

Solna – Assessment of its capitals

0

20

40

60

80

100

Intellectual Capital

Social Capital

Environmental Capital

Culture and Leisure Capital

Participation and Political Capital

Information & Communications

Technology Capital

Infrastructure Capital

45 PwC

Arendal – City positioning & development potential

46 PwC

PwC

Result – Utrecht Development Board (UDB) Partnering to achieve success

As an independent advisory board, the UDB supports the city of Utrecht in realizing its potential. To achieve this, cooperation between local leaders, citizens and businesses is crucial for its success.

The UDB has succeeded over the last year in working together with the municipality (setting up strategy) and executing the strategy by connecting various stakeholders of the city of Utrecht. In particular, UDB has created partnerships between various stakeholders within, and also outside, the city of Utrecht, including:

• ‘City labs’ – working together (education, business communities, government organizations) on different challenges e.g. local labor market, broadband, civil society and new ways of working.

• An annual encouragement award for the local economy, initiated by the UDB and the municipality

• A permanent lobby to encourage the participation of industries within the city’s Strategic Agenda

• Creating a new connection between the Trade area and the municipality

Critical success factors for partnering__

47

PwC 48

Cities of

opportunity

Cities of Opportunity is a highly visible thought leadership initiative reflecting PwC’s views on cities

49

Central thesis: “The more well-balanced a city is for both businesses and

residents, the better it will fare”

• Reflects PwC’s holistic approach to city management

• The report in its fourth edition is produced by PwC with support from the global network and the ISU and in cooperation with the Partnership for New York City.

• Takes both a quantitative and qualitative look at the emerging picture of city life in 21 capitals of business, finance and culture worldwide.

• To a great extent, the successes and shortcomings that surface in the study substantiate the central thesis of the research.

• Cities of Opportunity may prove most useful for government officials, policymakers and business persons as a good orientation point on the move toward a city-centered world.

• The study takes notice of the actions and policies that are working best for the common good, and its insights will prove valuable in that context.

PwC 50 Partnership for New York City

How the cities rank overall

Los Angeles Madrid

Berlin

Tokyo Houston 15

16

12

14

13

24 San Francisco 25

Toronto

26 New York

23

Stockholm

22 Sydney

18

17

19

21

20

Chicago Paris

Singapore

Hong Kong

London

11

8

10

9

Mexico City Abu Dhabi

Shanghai

Beijing Seoul

7

5

4

1

2 3

6

Moscow

Istanbul

Mumbai

Johannesburg São Paulo

Santiago

Cities of Opportunity – Success Factors for Cities

51 PwC

PwC

Beta cities fared very well, compared to the dominant Alpha cities

Intellectual capital and innovation Stockholm Toronto New York/

San Francisco

Technology readiness New York Seoul Stockholm

Transportation and infrastructure Paris Chicago New York

Demographics and livability Stockholm Sydney Toronto

Economic Clout London Paris New York

Cost Houston Los Angeles Chicago

Lifestyle Assets New York Paris London

Health, safety and security Stockholm Toronto Chicago

Ease of doing business Hong Kong Singapore New York

Sustainability Berlin Sydney Stockholm

52

1

2

3

Top 3 cities in each indicator

Cities of Opportunity - What makes the difference?

PwC

Indicator Rankings

53 Partnership for New York City

Indicator Best performing cities

Intellectual capital and innovation Stockholm Toronto New York

Technology readiness New York Seoul Stockholm

Transportation and infrastructure Paris Chicago New York

Demographics and livability Stockholm Sydney Toronto

Economic Clout London Paris New York

Cost Houston Los Angeles Chicago

Lifestyle Assets New York Paris London

Health, safety and security Stockholm Toronto Chicago

Ease of doing business Hong Kong Singapore New York

Sustainability Berlin Sydney Stockholm

PwC

How it’s done … For example, 2 of 10 indicators + variables


• Math/science skills attainment • Class size • Percent of population with higher education • Literacy + enrollment • Libraries with public access • Research at top universities • Percent GDP spent on R+D • Intellectual property protection • Entrepreneurial environment

Social…

Intellectual Capital + innovation

• Mass transit coverage • Miles of mass transit track • Traffic congestion • Taxis • Cost of public transport • Aircraft movements • In/outgoing passenger flows • Airport to central business district ease • Skyscraper construction

Economic …

Transportation + infrastructure

PwC

Indicator and variable sampling


• Math/science skills attainment • Percent of population with higher ed • Intellectual property protection

Intellectual Capital and innovation

• Mass transit coverage • Miles of mass transit track • Traffic congestion

Transportation and infrastructure

• Political environment • Crime • Hospitals

Health, safety and security

• Flexibility of visa travel • Foreign embassies or consulates • Workforce management risk

Ease of doing business

PwC 56

Innovation

How many seeds are there in a apple?

Traditionally the right question

Business as usual…

…How many apples are there

in a seed..…

New approach with new

insights and increased

opportunity space

Disruptive innovation and

“rapid protoptyping”…

Shaping the Future

59

A Constant Unique Tall Building…

II Simpósio Internacional PwC - Inovação em Gestão Pública

The Worlds Tallest

Building…

The Worlds Lowest Building…

FINALLY...

We need a:

Higher density of knowledge, innovation and solid relationships - inclusiveness

Lower friction in communication, collaboration and between people, sectors and cultures

Higher frequency and speed in citizen and stakeholder dialog in order to create the new!

3

PwC 64

The end

Cities of the future - Jan Sturesson

Business

tim gulden

legitimate leadership reinventing

pressure urbanization corridors

digital mass collaboration

personal leadership

knowledge

opetition amalgamation

global distribution