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CIH member webinar

Brexit – How might it affect migration, housing need and allocations?

John Perry

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What will we cover today?

• How big is EU migration to the UK? How does it affect population size and household growth?

• What about migration to Europe from elsewhere?

• So why do nationals of countries outside Europe come to the UK?

• How might Brexit affect – migration to the UK from the EU?

– migration to the UK from the rest of the world?

– housing demand and housing allocations?

• What is the timetable? How can I keep up to date?


How big is EU migration to the

UK?

How does it affect population

size and household growth?


EU migration – some facts

• There are about 3m EU nationals already in the UK – Many have lived here long term – some 70% for more than 5

years – Many are eligible for permanent residency

• In any one year, about half of new migrants are from other EU countries – And about half of those EU migrants are from the new EU

states that joined from 2004 – Poland is the single biggest EU source of migrants

• At the same time, some 1.2m British nationals live elsewhere in the EU


EU citizens make up about half of total UK migration


Breakdown of EU migration


Rise in numbers of EU nationals in the UK


EU migration to the UK – what drives it?

• Work is the main reason – About two-thirds of EU migrants are working (many of the

rest will not be of working age) – Two-thirds of new EU migrants come to work

• Welfare benefits are not a significant driver – Most EU claimants claim in-work not out-of-work benefits – Only 7% of tax credit claims are from EU nationals – Overall, EU migrants pay more in tax and NI than they receive

in tax credits or child benefit

• Other reasons for coming to the UK are to study and for family reasons (e.g. marriage, retirement)


How does migration affect household growth? • Migration and natural increases due to migration

affect UK population totals

• This + housing market factors affect household growth

• Net migration accounts for about 37% of projected household growth in England over the next 25 years

• Current projections are pre-referendum

• Northern Ireland population growth is relatively unaffected by migration

• Wales would only grow slightly without migration

• Scotland’s population would fall with zero migration


What about migration to Europe

from elsewhere?


What drives migration to Europe from elsewhere?

• Wars in Syria, Iraq, Libya, Yemen

• Repression or conflicts in Eritrea, Sudan, Somalia and some other parts of Africa

• Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey already have millions of refugees in camps

• People travel by land/sea to EU countries to seek a place of safety and rebuild their lives

• Are they asylum seekers, refugees or ‘economic migrants’?


Migrants to the EU from outside Europe

In 2015 more than one million migrants arrived in the EU – mainly as asylum seekers


Syrian refugees: where are they going?


Migrants to the EU from outside Europe

But few of these reach the UK


Asylum applications in the year ending March 2016


So why do nationals of countries

outside Europe come to the

UK?


Why do non-EU nationals come to the UK?

• Asylum is the least important reason

• Studying is by far the biggest

• Work and then family reasons are next in importance


Reasons for non-EU migration


How might Brexit affect

migration to the UK from the

EU?


Possible immediate effects

• EU migration could increase as people try to reach the UK before ‘free movement’ ends

• EU nationals here could seek UK citizenship or indefinite leave to remain

• British nationals elsewhere in the EU could return to the UK (and look for housing?)

• Much will depend on clarity about the status of EU nationals in the UK and UK nationals in the EU


Free movement – what is it?

• EU single market provides ‘four freedoms’ – the free movement of goods, services, money and people within the EU

• In addition, EU nationals are all ‘EU citizens’ with rights in any EU country

• So ‘free movement’ in practice means: freedom to enter, leave and reside in any EU state

freedom to work

freedom to bring family members

the right to equal treatment (in jobs, tax, welfare, etc.)


Free movement – where does it apply?

• Applies to and between all EU member states

• Transitional rules for new member states applied to Bulgaria/Romania from 2007-2013 (in the UK)

currently apply to Croatia (in the UK)

• Free movement applies to whole EEA: Norway, Iceland, Lichtenstein as well as EU itself

• Also applies to Switzerland

• So current UK immigration rules cover the EEA + Switzerland


Free movement – will it end?

• Would still apply if the UK remains in the ‘single market’ (e.g. like Norway, through the EEA)

• But there might be scope for an emergency brake

• Would probably still apply if there was a series of trade agreements with the EU (like Switzerland has)

• Could end if the UK seeks an ‘association agreement’ with the EU that covers only trade/customs arrangements (like Turkey)


Free movement – what would replace it?

• A points system like in Australia – seems to be ruled out – driven by demand from migrants

• Work permits – as apply to non-EU nationals at present – driven by demand from businesses

• Would only cover skilled workers – would there be provision for low-skilled workers in businesses like farming and food processing?

• Migration would fall – but not dramatically?


How might Brexit affect

migration to the UK from the rest

of the world?


Pattern of non-EU migration to stay the same?

• Studying and family reasons – already affected by tight restrictions, may not be made tighter?

• Work – entry from outside the EU depends on permits – likely to continue

• Asylum/refugees – numbers low but may grow further? – will look at this in more detail


Asylum accounts for only a small % of net migration


But could we reach… ‘Breaking point’?

UKIP poster was highly misleading – UK has largely opted out of EU asylum policies

Overall – refugee organisations are more concerned about a general shift of sympathy away from helping asylum

seekers and refugees


How can asylum seekers enter the UK?

• Via official resettlement schemes – not related to EU quotas

• Ask for asylum within the UK having entered legally (e.g. as a visitor)

• Try to enter the UK ‘illegally’ to seek asylum

• Why? - because Syrians (or other people we think of as ‘refugees’) can’t ask for ‘asylum’ until they get to the UK


How does ‘resettlement’ work?

• People are accepted direct from camps

• Schemes are very selective and work very slowly

• Britain has so far only resettled 2,000 out of a promised 20,000 Syrian refugees


Where are Syrian refugees going in the UK?


A ‘Calais camp’ in Dover?

• Britain refuses to set up an asylum processing centre in France

• But might the border agreement with France be a victim of Brexit?

• The UK border would then be in Dover (etc.)

• Would that bring a ‘Calais camp’ to the UK?


Theresa May’s principles for refugee policy (Sept 2016)

• A first safe country. Refugees should claim asylum in the first safe country they reach, recognising that the current trend of onward movement benefits criminal gangs, exposes people to danger and reduces the prospects of ever returning home to their countries.

• Better distinction between refugees and economic migrants – failure to do so only more people to undertake dangerous journeys.

• The right of all countries to control their borders and the responsibility to manage borders to reduce onward flows of illegal and uncontrolled migration.


How might Brexit affect housing

demand and housing

allocations?


New migrants are overwhelmingly in the private rented sector

• New migrants (those here under 5 years) most likely to be in the private rented sector (75%)

• Less than 10% of new social lettings are to non-UK nationals

• Foreign-born population has fewer homeowners (46%)


Change in tenure over time


Uncertain effects on private renting market

• Rapid growth of PRS – now 4m households, only 2m in 2000

• Sector being reshaped by other changes such as LHA – migration effect is uncertain

• If Brexit affects house purchase, it could drive more people into renting

• So rents might continue to increase even if incomes stagnate – especially if landlords also reluctant to invest

• Conclusion – watch this space


EU migrants and social housing

• EU nationals who come to work are generally eligible – In housing, this means they can claim HB and get a housing

allocation or homelessness help – Family members are eligible too – But for jobseekers and unemployed people the rules are more

complex and they can lose eligibility – Hence 47% of London rough sleepers are other EU states

• EU nationals make limited use of social housing – New migrants overwhelmingly use the PRS – Overall, 15.9% of EU nationals are in social housing compared

with 17% of UK nationals – But only 4% of new lettings each year go to EU nationals

• Conclusion – EU migration has little effect on social housing


• Almost certainly, new EU workers would have some form of ‘limited leave’

• So would not have access to benefits/housing unless they can eventually get ‘indefinite leave’

• EU family members would have to meet same tests (e.g. income) as non-EU

• Different rules might apply to EU nationals here before Brexit

• EU nationals would be subject to ‘right to rent’ document checks

What about eligibility for housing after Brexit?


What is the timetable and how

can I keep up to date?


What’s the timetable?

• Develop a Brexit ‘offer’ by end of 2016 – Test in parliament?

– Test with the public?

• Invoke ‘Article 50’ – in 2017?

• Leave EU – as late as 2020?

• Negotiate new trade and other deals (inc. immigration)

• Repeal European Communities Act

• Write new rules on immigration, benefits and housing allocations

• So, no change for 3-4 years at least?


What are the obstacles?

• No clarity yet on what Brexit means

• An immigration deal will be complex e.g. if Poland gives up migration rights to the UK, what will the UK have to give up?

• New rules on immigration, benefits and housing eligibility are complex and civil servants’ time will be limited

• And they will be different for Scotland

• Risk of delays and of rules not being properly drafted, then having to be challenged via court cases


Some resources to help

• What you need to know about Brexit:

– www.cih.org/publication-free/display/vpathDCR/templatedata/cih/publication-free/data/What_you_need_to_know_about_Brexit_and_how_it_might_affect_migration

• UK guide to Housing and Migration - issues and solutions

– produced by the Housing and Migration Network

– www.cih.org/publication-free/display/vpathDCR//templatedata/cih/publication-free/data/Housing_and_migration_A_UK_guide_to_issues_and_solutions

http://www.cih.org/publication-free/display/vpathDCR/templatedata/cih/publication-free/data/What_you_need_to_know_about_Brexit_and_how_it_might_affect_migration






http://www.cih.org/publication-free/display/vpathDCR//templatedata/cih/publication-free/data/Housing_and_migration_A_UK_guide_to_issues_and_solutions









Do you have housing applicants who are

new arrivals in the UK? Do you know their

housing entitlements?

How will you keep up to date after Brexit?

Get accurate guidance for you and your

staff. Visit

www.housing-rights.info

CIH member webinar › resources › CIH_Brexit_Webinar_sept_16.pdf · CIH member webinar Brexit ... •Would probably still apply if there was a series of trade agreements with the

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