CIBC Oil and Gas Weekly Jan 18, 2016.pdf

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and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com CIBC World Markets Corp., 425 Lexington Avenue, New York, NY 10017 (212)-856-4000

INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY RESEARCH Jon Morrison 1 (403) 216-3400 [email protected]

Dave Popowich 1 (403) 216-3401 [email protected]

Dan Forget 1 (403) 216-3021 [email protected]

Adam Gill, CFA 1 (403) 216-3405 [email protected]

Serhiy Petrenko 1 (403) 221-5047 [email protected]

Scott Reid, CFA 1 (403) 216-3402 [email protected]

Arthur Grayfer, CFA 1 (403) 216-3409 [email protected]

John Gibson 1 (403) 260-8668 [email protected]

Gordon Law, CA 1 (403) 260-8678 [email protected]

Jeremy Kaliel 1 (403) 260-8657 [email protected]

Shahzaib Merwat 1 (403) 216-8518 [email protected]

Mark Zalucky 1 (403) 260-0536 [email protected]

Energy I N D U S T R Y U P D A T E

CIBC Oil & Gas Weekly

Equities Face Same Headwinds As Crude Prices W/W

January 18, 2016

Oil & Gas - Dividend

Corporations

Sector Weighting: N O N E

Oil & Gas - Intermediate & Junior Producers


Oil & Gas - International

E&P


Oil & Gas - Large Cap


Oilfield Services & Equipment


What's Changed

This will likely be a somewhat busy week for Canadian energy news flow with a handful of companies expected to provide operational and capital spending updates.

We will also receive corporate updates from nearly 40 Canadian E&Ps, Integrated, Oilfield Services, Utilities and Midstream companies at our 19th Annual Whistler Investor Conference. In addition, look for the WCS and WTI front-month oil contracts

to expire and roll on Monday and Wednesday, respectively. Equity performance for Canadian energy stocks was very soft last week, while the U.S.

energy ETF market realized another strong weekly inflow of ~US$640 million, indicating that there is growing investor interest for exposure to the energy sector. Overall, the International producers were the softest relative subsector with stocks down an average of ~1,960 bps W/W, followed by DivCo E&Ps falling ~1,240 bps,

Large Cap producers off ~900 bps, Junior E&Ps decreasing ~820 bps, the Oilfield Services sector sliding ~740 bps and Integrated names down ~210 bps.

All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated. 16-140008 2016

CIBC World Markets Corp., the U.S. broker-dealer, and CIBC World Markets Inc., the Canadian broker-dealer (collectively, CIBC World Markets Corp./Inc.) do and seek to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result,

investors should be aware that CIBC World Markets Corp./Inc. may have a conflict of interest that could affect the

objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

For required regulatory disclosures please refer to "Important Disclosures" beginning on page 26.

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Exhibit 1. North American Energy Equity Indices

Source: Bloomberg and CIBC World Markets Inc. Note: the S&P 500 Drillers index includes land and offshore drillers.

TSX vs. S&P 500 TSX vs. TSX Capped Energy S&P 500 vs. S&P 500 Energy

Energy Indices - Canada Energy Indices - U.S.

0.30

0.50

0.70

0.90

1.10

1.30

1.50

1.70

1.90

2.10

Jan-

13

Mar

-13

May

-13

Jul-1

3

Sep

-13

Nov

-13

Jan-

14

Mar

-14

May

-14

Jul-1

4

Sep

-14

Nov

-14

Jan-

15

Mar

-15

May

-15

Jul-1

5

Sep

-15

Nov

-15

Jan-

16

TSX E&P TR

TSX Integrated TR

TSX Oilfield Services & Equipment TR

TSX Drillers TR

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

2.00

2.20

Jan-

13

Mar

-13

May

-13

Jul-1

3

Sep

-13

Nov

-13

Jan-

14

Mar

-14

May

-14

Jul-1

4

Sep

-14

Nov

-14

Jan-

15

Mar

-15

May

-15

Jul-1

5

Sep

-15

Nov

-15

Jan-

16

S&P 500 E&P

S&P 500 Integrated

S&P 500 Equipment & Services

S&P 500 Drillers

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

1.50

Jan-

13

Apr

-13

Jul-1

3

Oct

-13

Jan-

14

Apr

-14

Jul-1

4

Oct

-14

Jan-

15

Apr

-15

Jul-1

5

Oct

-15

Jan-

16

TSX Composite

S&P 500

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

1.50

Jan-

13

Apr

-13

Jul-1

3

Oct

-13

Jan-

14

Apr

-14

Jul-1

4

Oct

-14

Jan-

15

Apr

-15

Jul-1

5

Oct

-15

Jan-

16

TSX Composite

TSX Capped Energy

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

1.50

Jan-

13

Apr

-13

Jul-1

3

Oct

-13

Jan-

14

Apr

-14

Jul-1

4

Oct

-14

Jan-

15

Apr

-15

Jul-1

5

Oct

-15

Jan-

16

S&P 500

S&P 500 Energy

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Exhibit 2. Commodities and ETFs Funds Flow

Source: Bloomberg and CIBC World Markets Inc.

WTI vs Brent Henry Hub vs AECO

Natural Gas Liquids Funds Flow by Sector for US Equity ETFs for the Week Ending January 15, 2016

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

$110

$120

$130

Jan-

13

Mar

-13

May

-13

Jul-1

3

Sep

-13

Nov

-13

Jan-

14

Mar

-14

May

-14

Jul-1

4

Sep

-14

Nov

-14

Jan-

15

Mar

-15

May

-15

Jul-1

5

Sep

-15

Nov

-15

Jan-

16

US

$/B

bl

WTI Brent

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

$7.00

Jan-

13

Mar

-13

May

-13

Jul-1

3

Sep

-13

Nov

-13

Jan-

14

Mar

-14

May

-14

Jul-1

4

Sep

-14

Nov

-14

Jan-

15

Mar

-15

May

-15

Jul-1

5

Sep

-15

Nov

-15

Jan-

16

US

$/M

MB

tu

Henry Hub AECO

-$20

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

Jan-

13

Mar

-13

May

-13

Jul-1

3

Sep

-13

Nov

-13

Jan-

14

Mar

-14

May

-14

Jul-1

4

Sep

-14

Nov

-14

Jan-

15

Mar

-15

May

-15

Jul-1

5

Sep

-15

Nov

-15

Jan-

16

US

$/B

bl

Alberta Condensate Texas Condensate

Alberta Propane Texas Propane

$15+

$27

-$69

$200

$275

-$341

$599

-$8

-$35

-$711

$50

$642

-$791

-1,200 -1,000 -800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800

Health Care

Industrials

Utilities

Consumer Staples

Consumer Discretionary

Real Estate

Communications Sector

Thematic

Technology

Materials

Energy

Financial

US$ (Millions)

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Exhibit 3. CIBC Energy Indices


TSX E&P vs. Non-Dividend Junior E&Ps TR Index TSX E&P vs. Dividend-Paying E&Ps TR Index

TSX E&P vs. CIBC Large Cap. E&Ps TSX E&P vs. CIBC Integrated E&Ps

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

1.50

Jan-

13

Mar

-13

May

-13

Jul-1

3

Sep

-13

Nov

-13

Jan-

14

Mar

-14

May

-14

Jul-1

4

Sep

-14

Nov

-14

Jan-

15

Mar

-15

May

-15

Jul-1

5

Sep

-15

Nov

-15

Jan-

16

TSX E&P TR

CIBC Large Cap. E&Ps TR Index

0.30

0.60

0.90

1.20

1.50

1.80

2.10

2.40

2.70

3.00

Jan-

13

Mar

-13

May

-13

Jul-1

3

Sep

-13

Nov

-13

Jan-

14

Mar

-14

May

-14

Jul-1

4

Sep

-14

Nov

-14

Jan-

15

Mar

-15

May

-15

Jul-1

5

Sep

-15

Nov

-15

Jan-

16

TSX E&P TR

Non-Dividend Junior E&Ps TR Index

0.30

0.50

0.70

0.90

1.10

1.30

1.50

1.70

1.90

Jan-

13

Mar

-13

May

-13

Jul-1

3

Sep

-13

Nov

-13

Jan-

14

Mar

-14

May

-14

Jul-1

4

Sep

-14

Nov

-14

Jan-

15

Mar

-15

May

-15

Jul-1

5

Sep

-15

Nov

-15

Jan-

16

TSX E&P TR

Dividend-Paying E&Ps TR Index

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

1.50

Jan-

13

Mar

-13

May

-13

Jul-1

3

Sep

-13

Nov

-13

Jan-

14

Mar

-14

May

-14

Jul-1

4

Sep

-14

Nov

-14

Jan-

15

Mar

-15

May

-15

Jul-1

5

Sep

-15

Nov

-15

Jan-

16

TSX E&P TR

CIBC Integrated E&Ps TR Index

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Exhibit 4. CIBC Energy Indices


TSX E&P vs. CIBC Royalty Corps TSX E&P vs. International E&Ps

TSX O&G-Equipment & Services, -Drillers vs. CIBC Oilfield Services STENRE Index vs. OSX Index vs. Oilfield Services Cos

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

1.50

1.60

1.70

1.80

1.90

2.00

Jan-

13

Mar

-13

May

-13

Jul-1

3

Sep

-13

Nov

-13

Jan-

14

Mar

-14

May

-14

Jul-1

4

Sep

-14

Nov

-14

Jan-

15

Mar

-15

May

-15

Jul-1

5

Sep

-15

Nov

-15

Jan-

16

TSX Oilfield Services & Equipment TRTSX Drillers TRCIBC Oilfield Services Coverage

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

1.50

1.60

Jan-

13

Mar

-13

May

-13

Jul-1

3

Sep

-13

Nov

-13

Jan-

14

Mar

-14

May

-14

Jul-1

4

Sep

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Nov

-14

Jan-

15

Mar

-15

May

-15

Jul-1

5

Sep

-15

Nov

-15

Jan-

16

TSX E&P TR

CIBC Royalty Corps TR Index

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

1.50

1.60

Jan-

13

Mar

-13

May

-13

Jul-1

3

Sep

-13

Nov

-13

Jan-

14

Mar

-14

May

-14

Jul-1

4

Sep

-14

Nov

-14

Jan-

15

Mar

-15

May

-15

Jul-1

5

Sep

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Nov

-15

Jan-

16

TSX E&P TR

CIBC International E&Ps TR Index

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

1.50

1.60

1.70

1.80

1.90

2.00

Jan-

13

Mar

-13

May

-13

Jul-1

3

Sep

-13

Nov

-13

Jan-

14

Mar

-14

May

-14

Jul-1

4

Sep

-14

Nov

-14

Jan-

15

Mar

-15

May

-15

Jul-1

5

Sep

-15

Nov

-15

Jan-

16

STENRE Index

OSX Index

CIBC Oilfield Services Coverage

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Exhibit 5. Calendar

Note: All times in Mountain Time (MT). Excludes equities not under CIBCs Oil & Gas coverage universe. Source: Bloomberg and CIBC World Markets Inc.

North American Oil & Gas Economic Calendar January 2016

Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Legend

27 28 29 30 31 1 2

3 4 5 6 7 8 9

10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Land Sale:

AB

CO

17 18 19 20 21 22 23

CL

CIBC 19th

Annual

Whistler

Investor

Conference

CIBC 19th

Annual

Whistler

Investor

Conference

CIBC 19th

Annual

Whistler

Investor

Conference

24 25 26 27 28 29 30

Land Sale:

BC

NG

Land Sale:

AB

Land Sale:

SK

31 1 2 3 4 5 6

New Year's Day

WCS

Martin Luther King, Jr. Day

Earnings Release

Ticker Before Market Open

Ticker After Market Close

Futures Contract Expiries

CL WTI 1-Month

CO Brent 1-Month

NG HH 1-Month

WCS WCS 1-Month

Canadian Crown Land Sales

AB, BC, MB, SK

Holiday/Market Closed

Canadian Holiday

US Holiday

February

Su M Tu W Th F Sa

1 2 3 4 5 6

7 8 9 10 11 12 13

14 15 16 17 18 19 20

21 22 23 24 25 26 27

28 29

March

Su M Tu W Th F Sa

1 2 3 4 5

7 7 8 9 10 11 12

14 14 15 16 17 18 19

21 21 22 23 24 25 26

28 28 29 30 31

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Exhibit 6. Target Prices and Investment Recommendations Integrated, Large Cap, and Dividend-Paying E&Ps

Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

Returns % 52-Week Short Short

Company Ticker Price Analyst

Price

Target1

Rat

ing Target/

Price

Div.

Yield Total D/D W/W M/M 3-Mo YTD 1-Year 1-Year Chart High Low

Mkt. Cap.

($MM)

Net Debt

($MM)

EV

($MM)

Interest

(MM)

Interest

Ratio

% of

Float M/M Y/Y

IntegratedCenovus Energy CVE $17.16 Grayfer $21.00 SP 22.4% 5.2% 27.5% -0.8% 4.0% -2.2% -19.1% -1.9% -22.3% $26.42 $15.75 $13,749 $1,911 $15,661 16.58 5.31 2.0% -8.8% 47.2%

Husky Energy HSE $12.78 Grayfer $19.00 SP 48.7% 9.0% 57.6% -2.7% -4.6% -11.2% -41.8% -10.7% -46.5% $29.48 $12.25 $13,187 $6,842 $20,029 26.31 10.30 9.1% 6.5% 4.7%

Imperial Oil IMO $41.68 Grayfer $55.00 SO 32.0% 1.2% 33.2% -1.3% -1.7% -4.0% -6.4% -7.5% -6.2% $55.37 $39.30 $35,921 $8,060 $43,981 5.70 4.60 2.2% 36.7% 13.0%

Suncor Energy SU $31.22 Grayfer R R R R R -3.6% -6.1% -13.3% -14.6% -12.6% -5.9% $40.93 $30.72 R R R 18.42 2.54 1.3% -0.5% 54.2%

Average 34.3% 5.1% 39.5% -2.1% -2.1% -7.7% -20.5% -8.2% -20.2% 16.75 5.69 3.7% 8.5% 29.8%

Large CapCanadian Natural Resources CNQ $24.44 Grayfer $36.00 SO 47.3% 3.3% 50.6% -5.6% -10.5% -16.2% -20.5% -19.2% -23.0% $42.46 $23.42 $29,877 $16,480 $46,357 9.61 1.55 0.9% -42.6% 5.7%

Canadian Oil Sands COS $7.48 Grayfer R R R R R -2.1% 0.1% -11.9% -24.3% -9.6% 0.2% $13.87 $5.61 R R R 16.09 5.13 3.3% -12.7% -42.2%

Encana ECA (US) $3.69 Grayfer $6.50 SP 76.2% 1.2% 77.4% -10.4% -24.5% -26.5% -56.6% -27.5% -70.2% $14.73 $3.61 $4,151 $4,849 $9,000 15.56 1.48 1.8% -9.5% -10.3%

Tourmaline Oil TOU $22.61 Grayfer $30.00 SO 32.7% 0.0% 32.7% -3.5% -1.1% 4.3% -27.6% 1.2% -39.9% $43.75 $20.83 $5,046 $1,484 $6,530 7.43 6.83 4.1% -6.6% -17.6%

Average 52.0% 1.5% 53.6% -5.4% -9.0% -12.6% -32.3% -13.8% -33.2% 12.17 3.75 2.5% -17.9% -16.1%

Dividend-PayingARC Resources ARX $15.45 Kaliel $24.00 SO 55% 7.8% 63% -1.8% -3.2% -6.3% -24.6% -7.5% -25.3% $25.73 $14.43 $5,318 $996 $6,314 13.65 7.02 4.2% -1% 2.7%

Baytex Energy BTE $2.36 Kaliel $6.50 SP 175% 0.0% 175% -12.9% -35.5% -35.3% -60.3% -47.3% -85.2% $24.87 $2.23 $496 $1,925 $2,421 3.90 0.70 1.9% -33% -40.9%

Bonavista Energy BNP $1.13 Kaliel $3.00 SO 165% 10.6% 176% -5.8% -21.5% -34.0% -69.1% -37.9% -80.4% $9.26 $1.07 $246 $1,305 $1,552 3.18 2.05 1.7% -21% -7.3%

Bonterra Energy BNE $13.20 Kaliel $21.00 SP 59% 9.1% 68% -6.6% -10.9% -18.3% -42.6% -22.7% -59.9% $46.57 $12.76 $437 $365 $802 0.42 1.58 1.7% 0% 14.1%

Cardinal Energy CJ $6.46 Gill $13.00 SO 101% 13.0% 114% -6.0% -17.4% -22.9% -41.4% -26.3% -44.9% $16.84 $6.15 $421 $71 $492 2.46 6.21 4.1% 8% nm

Crescent Point Energy CPG $13.28 Kaliel $23.00 SO 73% 9.0% 82% -5.0% -3.8% -14.8% -30.8% -17.6% -48.9% $33.85 $11.31 $6,701 $4,158 $10,860 12.85 3.20 2.6% 2% -19.4%

Enerplus ERF $3.37 Kaliel $6.50 SP 93% 10.7% 104% -3.2% -14.2% -25.1% -54.6% -29.1% -63.9% $16.09 $3.14 $696 $1,085 $1,781 7.62 3.82 3.7% -26% -5.5%

Freehold Royalties FRU $8.83 Grayfer $11.50 SP 30% 11.3% 42% -2.9% -8.2% -11.4% -25.9% -18.7% -41.8% $20.62 $8.50 $875 $149 $1,024 2.84 5.72 3.9% 22% 181.6%

Granite Oil GXO $6.72 Gill $7.50 SO 12% 4.2% 16% 1.1% -7.7% -4.0% -10.6% -16.8% 38.3% $9.39 $4.06 $204 $42 $245 0.84 8.98 3.0% 4% 33.5%

Lightstream Resources LTS $0.23 Kaliel $0.30 SU 33% 0.0% 33% 4.7% -6.3% 0.0% -53.1% -13.5% -77.9% $1.81 $0.19 $45 $1,594 $1,638 2.33 3.06 1.2% 63% -81.1%

Northern Blizzard NBZ $3.25 Kaliel $7.25 SO 123% 14.8% 138% -9.5% -12.9% -5.6% -34.5% -17.9% -54.9% $9.75 $3.05 $360 $366 $726 2.67 10.07 8.6% 44% 42.4%

Pengrowth Energy PGF $0.78 Kaliel $1.50 SP 92% 5.1% 97% -6.0% -19.6% -25.0% -43.4% -23.5% -76.0% $4.48 $0.69 $424 $1,980 $2,404 8.99 2.65 1.7% -17% -39.2%

Penn West Petroleum PWT $0.86 Kaliel $1.00 SU 16% 0.0% 16% 2.4% -13.1% -35.8% -41.9% -26.5% -53.4% $3.45 $0.60 $432 $1,546 $1,977 19.04 4.23 4.0% -20% -25.2%

Peyto Exploration PEY $26.61 Kaliel $37.00 SO 39% 5.0% 44% -1.0% 3.5% 10.4% -13.7% 7.0% -13.1% $37.31 $21.55 $4,230 $1,039 $5,269 1.00 0.91 0.7% 83% 110.9%

PrairieSky Royalty PSK $20.00 Grayfer $25.00 SO 25% 6.5% 31% -1.4% 0.4% -6.3% -24.9% -8.8% -15.3% $34.67 $18.19 $4,592 -$234 $4,358 1.74 2.01 1.0% 45% 266.5%

Surge Energy SGY $1.62 Kaliel $3.00 SP 85% 9.3% 94% -10.5% -16.5% -12.9% -50.1% -23.2% -32.7% $4.57 $1.56 $358 $146 $504 7.71 3.28 3.6% -29% 45.1%

TORC Oil & Gas TOG $4.14 Gill $6.50 SO 57% 13.0% 70% -7.4% -11.0% -17.8% -40.6% -19.6% -34.9% $11.57 $3.88 $665 $286 $951 4.77 2.32 3.1% 80% nm

Trilogy Energy TET $2.41 Kaliel $5.50 SP 128% 0.0% 128% -5.1% -20.2% -28.5% -55.2% -34.2% -67.0% $10.05 $2.27 $304 $574 $878 0.55 0.50 0.9% -24% -72.9%

Twin Butte Energy TBE $0.08 Kaliel $0.10 SP 25% 0.0% 25% 0.0% -5.9% -11.1% -74.8% -11.1% -86.8% $1.04 $0.07 $28 $308 $337 2.44 0.54 0.7% 264% nm

Vermilion Energy VET $33.92 Kaliel $56.00 SO 65% 7.6% 73% -4.8% -2.0% -7.6% -29.2% -9.8% -26.8% $62.80 $31.73 $3,759 $1,400 $5,159 1.09 1.59 1.0% 86% -0.3%

Whitecap Resources WCP $6.71 Kaliel $14.50 SO 116% 11.2% 127% -7.8% -17.4% -24.5% -47.2% -26.0% -30.3% $15.62 $6.50 $2,005 $842 $2,848 4.01 1.25 1.4% -11% 59.3%

Peer Group Average 75% 7.1% 82% -4.3% -11.6% -16.0% -41.4% -20.5% -46.7% 4.96 3.41 2.6% 25% 26%

E&P Dividend-Paying Group Average 80% 6.9% 87% -4.5% -12.4% -16.8% -43.0% -21.2% -48.6% 5.24 3.37 2.6% 24% 1%

Royalty Group Average4

28% 8.9% 36% -2.1% -3.9% -8.9% -25.4% -13.7% -28.5% 2.29 3.86 2.4% 34% 224%

Notes:

1) Price targets are 12 to 18 months.

2) All Encana figures are in $USD unless stated otherwise.

3) nm = not meaningful, na = not available, R = restricted.

4) Only includes Freehold Royalties and PrairieSky Royalty.

Commodity Price Assumptions (Strip Pricing)

2014A 2015A 2016E 2017E 2018EBRENT (US$/bbl) $98.84 $52.30 $32.10 $38.00 $42.30

WTI (US$/bbl) $93.03 $48.80 $33.40 $38.40 $41.50

Ed. Par (C$/bbl) $94.62 $57.58 $42.76 $49.36 $51.07

WCS Heavy (C$/bbl) $82.32 $44.56 $28.41 $34.02 $38.92

NYMEX (US$/mcf) $4.35 $2.63 $2.34 $2.70 $2.84

Natural Gas (C$/mcf) $4.47 $2.74 $2.47 $2.92 $3.12

F/X (US$/C$) $0.91 $0.78 $0.69 $0.69 $0.69

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Exhibit 7. Target Prices and Investment Recommendations Junior, International, and Oilfield Services Cos


Returns % 52-Week 52-Week Short Short

Company Ticker Price Analyst

Price

Target1

Rat

ing Target/

Price

Div.

Yield Total D/D W/W M/M 3-Mo YTD 1-Year 1-Year Chart High LOW

Mkt. Cap.

($MM)

Net Debt

($MM)

EV

($MM)

Interest

(MM)

Interest

Ratio

% of

Float M/M Y/Y

JuniorAdvantage Oil & Gas AAV $6.86 Popowich $9.50 SO 38% -- 38% 1.0% 1.3% 5.4% -13.7% -2.4% 28.9% $8.36 $4.94 $1,171 $298 $1,469 4.22 4.36 2.5% 17% -7.4%

Bellatrix Exploration BXE $1.30 Gill $2.25 SP 73% -- 73% -11.0% -15.0% -4.4% -49.4% -21.7% -58.1% $4.05 $1.30 $250 $723 $973 12.22 9.96 7.8% -10% -18.6%

Birchcliff Energy BIR $3.26 Gill $6.00 SO 84% -- 84% 2.8% -9.9% -14.0% -53.0% -19.3% -53.0% $9.34 $2.95 $497 $632 $1,129 5.05 6.00 4.9% 1% 56.0%

Cequence Energy CQE $0.26 Gill $0.50 SU 96% -- 96% -3.8% -7.3% -7.3% -60.2% -15.0% -72.6% $1.11 $0.25 $54 $54 $107 0.50 1.12 0.4% 179% -76.8%

Crew Energy CR $3.36 Gill $5.25 SO 56% -- 56% -4.5% -13.4% -4.8% -39.4% -17.0% -36.4% $6.48 $3.19 $474 $256 $730 15.22 14.80 11.2% -1% -31.0%

Journey Energy JOY $1.15 Gill $2.00 SP 74% -- 74% na -5.6% 11.2% -42.8% -14.4% -75.7% $6.25 $1.01 $50 $108 $158 0.00 0.05 0.0% nm -89.1%

Kelt Exploration KEL $3.39 Gill $5.50 SP 62% -- 62% -2.6% -2.3% -9.1% -42.7% -20.0% -46.2% $9.95 $3.00 $572 $96 $668 9.27 6.35 6.7% 21% nm

Long Run Exploration LRE $0.31 Gill $0.52 SP 70% -- 70% -4.7% -3.2% 84.8% -21.8% -15.3% -74.4% $1.39 $0.12 $97 $679 $776 0.78 0.25 0.5% -48% -88.9%

NuVista Energy NVA $2.94 Gill $7.00 SO 138% -- 138% -5.5% -14.8% -17.9% -46.8% -27.8% -53.5% $9.54 $2.88 $451 $204 $654 11.94 18.84 8.2% 7% 1.6%

Painted Pony Petroleum PPY $3.13 Gill $5.00 SP 60% -- 60% -4.6% -0.9% 2.6% -47.7% -10.1% -58.0% $8.83 $2.78 $313 $65 $378 4.28 1.90 4.4% 25% nm

Paramount Resources POU $4.14 Gill $15.00 SP 262% -- 262% -5.3% -20.7% -22.3% -72.4% -32.4% -83.8% $38.08 $3.68 $440 $1,795 $2,235 8.64 5.11 14.8% -2% 34.4%

Perpetual Energy PMT $0.04 Gill $0.25 SP 614% -- 614% 0.0% -12.5% -66.7% -95.1% -30.0% -96.3% $1.28 $0.03 $8 $303 $311 14.01 5.61 4.1% 260% nm

Pine Cliff Energy PNE $0.85 Popowich $1.10 SP 29% -- 29% -4.5% -5.6% 0.0% -34.1% -8.6% -41.4% $1.65 $0.82 $258 $148 $406 0.21 0.25 0.1% -87% -63.3%

Raging River Exploration RRX $7.75 Gill $9.00 SO 16% -- 16% -2.0% -1.4% -5.8% -8.2% -7.4% 14.8% $9.94 $6.50 $1,646 $104 $1,749 6.02 4.23 3.2% 22% nm

RMP Energy RMP $1.26 Gill $2.00 SP 59% -- 59% -3.8% -8.7% -10.0% -35.7% -17.6% -67.4% $5.56 $1.16 $156 $130 $286 2.08 3.10 1.7% -1% 18.2%

Seven Generations Energy VII $13.39 Gill $17.50 SO 31% -- 31% -2.3% -0.4% -0.2% -4.2% -0.7% -7.5% $21.23 $11.25 $3,369 $995 $4,364 3.89 2.66 2.4% -20% 108.0%

Spartan Energy SPE $2.11 Popowich $3.00 SO 42% -- 42% -2.8% -9.1% -7.9% -19.2% -10.6% -7.9% $3.52 $1.80 $558 $87 $645 3.38 4.16 1.4% -5% 4.9%

Storm Resources SRX $3.37 Popowich $4.00 SP 19% -- 19% -4.5% -9.9% 6.0% -23.9% -6.1% 2.4% $5.08 $2.86 $402 $60 $463 0.17 2.10 0.2% -19% 3.3%

Tamarack Valley TVE $2.27 Popowich $3.25 SP 43% -- 43% -7.7% -15.6% -16.5% -20.9% -24.1% -21.7% $4.80 $1.83 $227 $106 $333 0.53 1.55 0.5% -23% 53.0%

Average 98% 98% -3.6% -8.2% -4.0% -38.5% -15.8% -42.5% 5.39 4.86 3.9% 18% -6%

InternationalBankers Petroleum BNK $0.76 Popowich $2.00 SP 163% -- 163% -6.2% -13.6% -20.0% -67.0% -25.5% -68.9% $3.83 $0.70 $199 -$75 $124 8.21 1.42 3.2% -10% -16.4%

Canacol Energy CNE $2.23 Popowich $5.00 SO 124% -- 124% -2.6% -11.2% -13.9% -31.6% -19.5% -9.7% $4.21 $1.96 $353 $173 $526 0.43 0.92 0.3% 21% -64.8%

Gran Tierra Energy GTE $2.88 Popowich $4.00 SP 39% -- 39% -0.3% 1.1% -11.1% -14.0% -4.3% -26.2% $4.80 $2.48 $816 -$191 $625 7.32 5.17 3.0% -5% -58.9%

Oryx Petroleum OXC $0.50 Popowich $2.50 SO-S 400% -- 400% -16.7% -15.3% 2.0% -33.3% -16.7% -89.9% $6.28 $0.42 $61 $52 $112 0.01 0.40 0.0% 0% -59.2%

Pacific Exploration & Production PRE $0.48 Popowich $1.00 SU 108% -- 108% -39.2% -67.3% -69.2% -84.6% -71.9% -89.1% $6.38 $0.39 $150 $5,184 $5,335 6.88 1.57 4.5% 22% -11.8%

Parex Resources PXT $8.40 Popowich $13.50 SO 61% -- 61% -5.0% -8.9% -16.6% -18.8% -17.3% 32.3% $11.55 $6.10 $1,262 -$63 $1,199 3.95 5.75 2.8% -2% nm

TransGlobe Energy TGL $1.83 Popowich $1.50 SU -18% 7% -11% -3.7% -21.1% -22.1% -46.9% -27.1% -40.6% $5.84 $1.76 $132 -$170 -$37 4.14 22.80 6.0% 11% 136.3%

Average 125% 7% 126% -10.5% -19.5% -21.6% -42.3% -26.0% -41.7% 4.42 5.43 2.8% 5% -12%

Oilfield ServicesBlack Diamond Group BDI $5.05 Morrison $7.25 SP 44% 11.9% 44% 1.4% -12.0% -26.4% -40.5% -30.4% -46.9% $18.26 $4.65 $207 $204 $412 0.98 4.34 2.8% -6% 78.1%

Calfrac Well Services CFW $1.23 Morrison $3.00 SO 144% 5.1% 144% -8.2% -31.3% -28.0% -60.7% -46.3% -85.1% $11.17 $1.20 $142 $695 $837 2.80 2.98 3.2% 13% 256.7%

Canyon Services Group FRC $3.24 Morrison $7.00 SO 116% 3.7% 116% -0.3% -2.4% -14.2% -37.4% -19.7% -53.1% $9.03 $2.85 $224 $67 $291 1.39 3.20 2.1% -10% -8.2%

Enerflex EFX $11.77 Morrison $18.00 SO 53% 2.9% 53% -3.8% -7.3% -10.4% -12.3% -11.4% -20.9% $17.34 $10.03 $931 $367 $1,298 0.55 2.39 0.7% 130% -14.4%

Ensign Energy Services ESI $6.47 Morrison $8.50 SP 31% 7.4% 31% -1.7% -2.0% -3.1% -25.9% -12.3% -28.2% $12.50 $6.00 $984 $710 $1,694 2.00 4.99 1.6% 49% -24.3%

Mullen Group MTL $14.10 Morrison $15.00 SP 6% 6.8% 6% 0.5% 3.8% 2.2% -21.8% 0.6% -17.0% $23.14 $13.09 $1,292 $652 $1,944 2.41 5.01 2.7% 9% 47.0%

Pason Systems PSI $16.49 Morrison $16.25 SU -1% 4.1% -1% -1.9% -8.7% -12.2% -16.7% -15.0% -4.1% $23.10 $16.18 $1,381 -$189 $1,192 2.11 9.17 3.0% 15% nm

Precision Drilling PD $4.26 Morrison $8.00 SO 88% 6.6% 88% -4.1% -8.6% -18.9% -28.2% -22.1% -24.5% $9.43 $4.08 $1,248 $1,679 $2,927 3.38 1.44 1.2% 1% 105.7%

Savanna Energy Services SVY $1.05 Morrison $2.50 SO 138% 0.0% 138% -6.3% -11.8% -7.9% -21.6% -14.6% -58.5% $3.01 $0.97 $95 $269 $364 0.41 4.39 0.5% -11% -78.7%

Secure Energy Services SES $6.00 Morrison $10.00 SO 67% 4.0% 67% -5.1% -7.6% -24.5% -34.7% -28.2% -55.5% $18.41 $5.85 $824 $208 $1,032 4.07 5.79 3.1% 15% nm

Total Energy Services TOT $12.80 Morrison $17.00 SP 33% 1.9% 33% 0.9% -3.3% -3.5% -20.5% -5.6% 3.9% $17.46 $11.67 $397 $4 $401 0.64 18.20 2.2% 41% 132.2%

Trican Well Service TCW $0.45 Morrison $1.50 SP 237% 0.0% 237% -4.3% 7.2% -24.6% -61.3% -30.5% -92.0% $5.75 $0.34 $66 $473 $539 0.22 0.13 0.2% -66% -90.1%

Trinidad Drilling TDG $1.61 Morrison $3.25 SO 102% 12.4% 102% -2.4% -10.6% -16.6% -35.8% -24.1% -63.5% $5.53 $1.56 $358 $673 $1,031 2.76 3.46 1.3% 22% 75.8%

Western Energy Services WRG $2.94 Morrison $6.00 SO 104% 1.4% 104% -5.5% -9.0% -13.7% -40.9% -24.2% -43.6% $7.89 $2.85 $217 $200 $417 0.53 4.21 0.8% 31% 186.9%

Average 83% 4.9% 83% -2.9% -7.4% -14.4% -32.7% -20.3% -42.1% 1.73 4.98 1.8% 16% 56%

Notes:



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Exhibit 8. Comparables (Strip Pricing) Integrated, Large Cap, and Dividend-Paying E&Ps


P/CF P/E D/CF EV/DACF EV/Boe/d EV/P+P NAV % NAV

Company Ticker Price 2015E 2016E 2017E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2015E 2016E 2017E Reserves P/Core P/Risked P/Unrisked

IntegratedCenovus Energy CVE $17.16 8.1x 15.3x 14.7x nm nm nm 1.3x 4.0x 5.2x 7.9x 14.8x 15.5x $56,218 $63,368 $61,409 $3.99 171% 138% 110%

Husky Energy HSE $12.78 4.0x 8.0x 6.3x nm nm nm 2.3x 5.4x 4.6x 5.8x 12.2x 10.1x $59,935 $67,083 $70,730 $6.74 -443% 365% 178%

Imperial Oil IMO $41.68 12.1x 17.6x 12.9x nm nm nm 2.7x 3.8x 2.8x 14.7x 21.1x 15.6x $121,415 $103,878 $98,477 $10.86 353% 206% 149%

Suncor Energy SU $31.22 R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R

Average 8.1x 13.6x 11.3x nm nm nm 2.1x 4.4x 4.2x 9.5x 16.0x 13.7x $79,189 $78,110 $76,872 $7.20 2.6x 236% 146%

Large CapCanadian Natural Resources CNQ $24.44 5.3x 9.7x 6.1x nm nm nm 3.0x 6.2x 4.0x 7.9x 13.9x 9.5x $54,298 $58,523 $55,464 $5.65 159% 141% 98%

Canadian Oil Sands COS $7.48 R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R

Encana ECA (US) $3.69 2.9x 6.0x 6.4x nm nm nm 3.5x 9.7x 12.6x 4.0x 9.0x 10.7x $21,961 $30,038 $35,982 $12.30 -568% 319% 117%

Tourmaline Oil TOU $22.61 5.8x 7.0x 6.0x nm nm nm 1.8x 2.4x 2.6x 7.4x 8.8x 8.0x $41,867 $34,296 $35,918 $7.63 179% 98% 74%

Average 4.7x 7.6x 6.2x nm nm nm 2.8x 6.1x 6.4x 6.4x 10.6x 9.4x $39,376 $40,952 $42,455 $8.53 169% 186% 96%

Dividend-PayingARC Resources ARX $15.45 7.1x 9.1x 8.5x -- -- -- 1.2x 1.9x 1.9x 7.8x 10.1x 9.6x $50,509 $50,917 $50,509 $9.56 nm 141% 52%

Baytex Energy BTE $2.36 0.9x 1.9x 2.2x -- -- -- 3.4x 6.8x 8.5x 3.6x 6.3x 7.4x $31,856 $27,203 $31,856 $5.61 nm 63% 19%

Bonavista Energy BNP $1.13 0.6x 0.9x 0.9x -- -- -- 2.9x 3.9x 3.7x 3.1x 4.2x 4.1x $19,891 $18,253 $19,891 $3.64 nm 21% 7%

Bonterra Energy BNE $13.20 3.7x 6.9x 4.5x -- -- -- 2.9x 5.7x 3.7x 5.9x 10.2x 7.1x $61,726 $58,148 $61,726 $8.60 nm 92% 39%

Cardinal Energy CJ $6.46 3.9x 8.9x 7.6x -- -- -- 1.4x 2.9x 3.4x 5.5x 10.3x 9.7x $43,963 $42,083 $43,963 $8.05 151% 130% 103%

Crescent Point Energy CPG $13.28 3.3x 5.4x 6.2x -- -- -- 2.1x 3.5x 4.7x 5.0x 7.6x 8.8x $63,506 $60,668 $63,506 $11.71 nm 97% 40%

Enerplus ERF $3.37 1.4x 3.3x 2.9x -- -- -- 2.4x 5.8x 6.1x 3.4x 7.2x 7.2x $17,210 $17,210 $17,210 $4.58 nm 109% 34%

Freehold Royalties FRU $8.83 12.8x 12.9x 16.2x -- -- -- 1.5x 2.4x 3.7x 14.6x 14.0x 17.6x $95,866 $110,275 $129,093 nm nm nm nm

Granite Oil GXO $6.72 nm 8.8x 6.2x -- -- -- 0.6x 2.2x 1.5x nm 9.9x 7.1x nm $65,930 $36,986 $14.48 705% nm 105%

Lightstream Resources LTS $0.23 0.2x nm nm -- -- -- 8.0x nm nm 5.0x 12.5x 13.4x $69,718 $60,681 $69,718 $10.19 nm nm nm

Northern Blizzard NBZ $3.25 2.1x 3.0x 6.9x -- -- -- 2.3x 2.9x 7.5x 3.7x 4.9x 9.8x $36,298 $32,265 $36,298 $4.58 nm 141% 54%

Pengrowth Energy PGF $0.78 0.9x 1.2x 4.1x -- -- -- 3.8x 4.6x 16.3x 3.9x 4.5x 10.3x $37,560 $32,930 $37,560 $4.54 nm nm nm

Penn West Petroleum PWT $0.86 1.8x 15.7x 9.7x -- -- -- 7.8x 78.9x 56.7x 5.9x 18.1x 15.8x $27,274 $21,910 $27,274 $3.69 nm nm nm

Peyto Exploration PEY $26.61 7.6x 7.8x 6.0x -- -- -- 1.8x 2.4x 2.1x 8.9x 9.4x 7.5x $44,091 $51,154 $44,091 $9.91 nm 91% 42%

PrairieSky Royalty PSK $20.00 16.8x 28.1x 25.1x -- -- -- nm nm nm 23.5x 27.6x 25.1x $168,870 $200,715 $210,573 nm 120% 261% 261%

Surge Energy SGY $1.62 2.8x 11.3x 8.0x -- -- -- 1.2x 6.5x 5.6x 3.6x 14.2x 11.1x $35,997 $35,364 $35,997 $5.66 633% 142% 52%

TORC Oil & Gas TOG $4.14 4.9x 8.0x 5.9x -- -- -- 2.1x 4.0x 3.5x 6.5x 10.3x 8.1x $60,802 $55,414 $61,416 $10.98 170% 116% 63%

Trilogy Energy TET $2.41 2.8x 3.5x 3.5x -- -- -- 5.0x 6.3x 6.4x 5.9x 7.2x 7.3x $34,418 $31,914 $34,418 $6.41 nm 35% 9%

Twin Butte Energy TBE $0.08 0.2x 1.1x 0.9x -- -- -- 1.5x 12.9x 12.3x 1.6x 9.0x 8.7x $20,592 $19,805 $20,592 $5.50 nm nm 165%

Vermilion Energy VET $33.92 7.4x 11.6x 10.4x -- -- -- 2.8x 4.5x 4.3x 9.1x 13.2x 12.1x $77,005 $79,375 $77,005 $20.90 177% 98% 37%

Whitecap Resources WCP $6.71 3.9x 8.7x 9.7x -- -- -- 1.7x 4.2x 5.7x 5.2x 10.9x 12.5x $69,286 $64,718 $69,286 $11.41 687% 68% 31%

E&P Dividend-Paying Group Average 4.2x 7.9x 7.3x 2.8x 8.5x 8.3x 6.6x 10.6x 10.5x $53,322 $54,140 $56,141 $8.42 378% 107% 66%

Royalty Group Average4

14.8x 20.5x 20.7x 1.5x 2.4x 3.7x 19.0x 20.8x 21.3x $132,368 $155,495 $169,833 nm

Notes:




4) Only includes Freehold Royalties and PrairieSky Royalty.

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Exhibit 9. Comparables (Strip Pricing) Junior, International, and Oilfield Services Cos


P/CF P/E D/CF EV/DACF EV/Boe/d EV/P+P NAV %

Company Ticker Price 2015E 2016E 2017E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2015E 2016E 2017E Reserves P/Core P/Risked P/Unrisked

JuniorAdvantage Oil & Gas AAV $6.86 9.6x 7.5x 6.3x -- -- -- 2.4x 1.7x 1.7x 11.1x 8.6x 7.6x $62,361 $44,051 $38,516 $4.89 107% 82% 47%

Bellatrix Exploration BXE $1.30 2.3x 2.6x 2.4x -- -- -- 6.7x 7.8x 7.6x 6.7x 7.0x 6.8x $23,668 $24,896 $25,675 $3.91 65% 57% 25%

Birchcliff Energy BIR $3.26 3.0x 3.7x 2.5x -- -- -- 3.9x 5.4x 4.4x 6.0x 7.4x 5.7x $29,118 $27,588 $27,133 $2.43 37% 30% 20%

Cequence Energy CQE $0.26 2.1x 5.5x 3.0x -- -- -- 2.7x 11.3x 11.4x 3.8x 10.3x 9.9x $12,878 $15,906 $23,619 $0.91 62% 24% 22%

Crew Energy CR $3.36 6.6x 7.5x 7.5x -- -- -- 3.4x 4.0x 4.6x 8.2x 9.2x 9.5x $38,798 $30,436 $30,677 $3.31 620% 93% 33%

Journey Energy JOY $1.15 1.0x 2.4x 2.0x -- -- -- 2.0x 5.3x 5.0x 2.8x 6.3x 5.8x $14,973 $17,136 $18,547 $3.17 nm nm 311%

Kelt Exploration KEL $3.39 8.9x 14.0x 7.4x -- -- -- 3.1x 6.6x 5.0x 10.8x 16.4x 10.4x $40,755 $38,156 $39,036 $4.59 626% 89% 25%

Long Run Exploration LRE $0.31 0.4x 2.5x 2.3x -- -- -- 3.4x 15.2x 15.8x 3.3x 10.1x 10.3x $20,337 $25,673 $30,602 $4.55 nm nm nm

NuVista Energy NVA $2.94 3.5x 4.0x 4.1x -- -- -- 1.8x 2.4x 3.7x 5.0x 5.9x 6.8x $30,352 $28,689 $28,865 $2.98 83% 77% 41%

Painted Pony Petroleum PPY $3.13 9.6x 6.9x 3.0x -- -- -- 2.3x 5.4x 4.6x 11.0x 10.7x 6.5x $24,760 $24,237 $18,541 $0.77 54% 44% 10%

Paramount Resources POU $4.14 4.6x 8.2x 2.8x -- -- -- 19.3x 39.1x 15.5x 10.9x 13.0x 9.2x $50,552 $45,394 $43,020 $6.44 42% 33% 13%

Perpetual Energy PMT $0.04 nm nm nm -- -- -- 44.2x nm nm 6.1x 37.1x 15.6x $10,992 $13,445 $17,034 $3.83 12% 10% 7%

Pine Cliff Energy PNE $0.85 8.3x 13.1x 5.7x -- -- -- 5.9x 7.0x 2.5x 15.4x 18.6x 8.0x $31,648 $17,230 $15,848 $3.57 188% 170% 144%

Raging River Exploration RRX $7.75 8.8x 12.0x 9.4x -- -- -- 0.7x 1.3x 1.2x 10.0x 12.8x 10.1x $130,517 $107,478 $105,030 $22.91 206% 171% 116%

RMP Energy RMP $1.26 1.6x 3.0x 2.2x -- -- -- 1.3x 2.6x 2.5x 2.8x 5.1x 4.3x $23,140 $27,267 $28,959 $6.81 677% 364% 240%

Seven Generations Energy VII $13.39 9.0x 6.7x 5.6x -- -- -- 3.1x 3.0x 3.8x 9.3x 7.6x 7.5x $75,868 $48,228 $45,967 $5.53 155% 123% 92%

Spartan Energy SPE $2.11 8.5x 13.9x 8.4x -- -- -- 1.2x 2.7x 2.8x 8.6x 14.1x 9.6x $73,456 $74,316 $67,067 $16.28 158% 157% 112%

Storm Resources SRX $3.37 10.3x 20.9x 13.8x -- -- -- 1.6x 5.6x 6.3x 11.5x 22.2x 16.4x $46,731 $33,283 $32,326 $5.34 564% 445% 256%

Tamarack Valley TVE $2.27 3.4x 5.4x 4.9x -- -- -- 1.8x 3.3x 4.3x 5.2x 7.7x 7.9x $40,777 $40,799 $39,021 $10.01 279% 112% 65%

Average 5.6x 7.8x 5.2x 5.8x 7.2x 5.7x 7.8x 12.1x 8.8x $41,141 $36,011 $35,552 $5.91 231% 122% 88%

InternationalBankers Petroleum BNK $0.76 1.2x 5.9x nm -- -- -- nm 0.1x nm 0.4x 3.0x 18.2x $4,881 $12,324 $23,732 $0.51 47% 47% --

Canacol Energy CNE $2.23 4.1x 4.6x 2.5x -- -- -- 3.4x 2.6x 1.5x 4.9x 4.8x 2.9x $47,202 $43,893 $34,939 $7.19 86% 56% --

Gran Tierra Energy GTE $2.88 7.7x 12.7x 7.9x -- -- -- nm nm 0.7x 4.4x 7.8x 6.0x $25,331 $26,817 $31,003 $4.32 172% 159% --

Oryx Petroleum OXC $0.50 nm nm nm -- -- -- 0.7x nm n.m. nm nm n.m. $18,204 $35,992 $50,286 $0.47 238% 28% --

Pacific Exploration & Production PRE $0.48 0.2x 4.1x 1.0x -- -- -- 8.3x 154.2x 42.4x 4.5x 12.4x 9.7x $38,704 $57,383 $79,873 $12.26 nm nm --

Parex Resources PXT $8.40 8.9x 26.6x 18.4x -- -- -- nm 0.9x 3.4x 6.1x 13.7x 12.1x $42,780 $44,303 $51,437 $17.76 245% 241% --

TransGlobe Energy TGL $1.83 649.3x nm nm -- -- -- n.m. 0.3x nm 1.9x n.m. nm $1,019 $8,833 $17,131 $0.08 104% 104% --

Average 4.4x 10.8x 7.4x 4.1x 1.0x 12.0x 3.7x 8.3x 9.8x $25,446 $32,792 $41,200 $6.08 149% 106%

P/CF P/E D/CF EV/EBITDA

Oilfield Services 2014 2015E 2016E 2014 2015E 2016E 2014 2015E 2016E 2014 2015E 2016E P/TBook

Black Diamond Group BDI $5.05 2.5x 3.9x 3.3x 13.5x nm 17.2x 2.5x 3.9x 3.0x 4.5x 6.4x 5.1x -- -- -- 0.6x -- -- --

Calfrac Well Services CFW $1.23 -8.7x nm 1.9x nm nm nm nm nm 11.7x 26.2x 20.9x 8.3x -- -- -- 0.2x -- -- --

Canyon Services Group FRC $3.24 7.2x 7.7x 3.6x nm nm 22.6x 2.2x 2.1x 1.2x 8.5x 13.4x 4.5x -- -- -- 0.8x -- -- --

Enerflex EFX $11.77 5.6x 6.4x 6.1x 9.1x 14.9x 11.9x 2.2x 1.8x 1.7x 5.7x 6.5x 6.0x -- -- -- 2.6x -- -- --

Ensign Energy Services ESI $6.47 3.4x 5.2x 3.9x nm nm nm 2.5x 3.2x 2.1x 5.6x 8.7x 5.9x -- -- -- 0.5x -- -- --

Mullen Group MTL $14.10 9.0x 10.1x 8.6x 32.2x 31.0x 18.3x 4.5x 4.8x 4.1x 9.0x 10.0x 8.4x -- -- -- 2.8x -- -- --

Pason Systems PSI $16.49 16.5x 21.0x 14.1x nm nm nm nm nm nm 12.1x 19.7x 12.2x -- -- -- 3.2x -- -- --

Precision Drilling PD $4.26 3.4x 6.3x 3.4x 5.4x nm nm 4.5x 8.7x 4.4x 6.1x 9.4x 5.6x -- -- -- 0.6x -- -- --

Savanna Energy Services SVY $1.05 1.1x 1.9x 1.2x nm nm nm 3.2x 4.7x 2.6x 3.4x 4.7x 3.1x -- -- -- 0.1x -- -- --

Secure Energy Services SES $6.00 8.5x 7.4x 5.6x nm nm 25.0x 2.1x 2.1x 1.1x 8.4x 9.0x 6.0x -- -- -- 1.1x -- -- --

Total Energy Services TOT $12.80 20.6x 13.1x 7.6x 31.9x nm 15.3x 0.2x nm nm 7.8x 11.9x 6.6x -- -- -- 1.0x -- -- --

Trican Well Service TCW $0.45 -0.9x 3.6x 0.8x nm nm 1.1x nm 24.9x 5.7x -62.8x 24.1x 5.6x -- -- -- 0.1x -- -- --

Trinidad Drilling TDG $1.61 2.8x 18.2x 5.5x 25.2x nm nm 5.3x 37.3x 12.3x 5.7x 8.7x 6.6x -- -- -- 0.3x -- -- --

Western Energy Services WRG $2.94 7.0x 13.6x 5.0x nm nm nm 6.5x 13.7x 4.9x 6.7x 11.8x 6.0x -- -- -- 0.4x -- -- --

Average 7.3x 9.1x 5.0x 19.5x 22.9x 15.9x 3.2x 9.8x 4.6x 8.4x 11.8x 6.4x 1.0x

Notes:

1) Price targets are 12 to 18 months. 3) Oilfield Services, Junior E&Ps, Large Caps and Integrated E&Ps D/CF calculated using Net Debt; Dividend-Paying, and International's D/CF calculated using Current Assets

2) nm = not meaningful, na = not available, R = restricted. minus Current Liabilities.

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Exhibit 10. CIBC vs Consensus Integrated, Large Cap, and Dividend-Paying E&Ps


2015E CFPS 2015E Production 2016E CFPS 2016E Production

Company Ticker CIBC Base Consensus Difference CIBC Strip CIBC Base Consensus Difference CIBC Base Consensus Difference CIBC Strip CIBC Base Consensus Difference

IntegratedCenovus Energy CVE $2.03 $2.27 -10% $2.03 280,643 280,656 0% $1.71 $2.20 -22% $1.08 272,674 280,503 -3%

Husky Energy HSE $3.37 $3.56 -5% $3.37 345,974 343,597 1% $3.29 $4.09 -20% $1.68 350,163 359,228 -3%

Imperial Oil IMO $3.50 $3.67 -5% $3.50 362,041 379,404 -5% $3.10 $4.38 -29% $2.40 420,341 434,964 -3%

Suncor Energy SU R R R R R R R R R R R R R R

Average -7% -1% -24% -3%

Large CapCanadian Natural Resources CNQ $5.10 $5.00 2% $5.10 853,422 839,255 2% $4.08 $5.46 -25% $2.82 835,385 849,125 -2%

Canadian Oil Sands COS R R R R R R R R R R R R R R

Encana ECA (US) $1.69 $1.71 -1% $1.69 403,899 403,451 0% $1.20 $1.66 -27% $0.82 362,938 369,879 -2%

Tourmaline Oil TOU $3.94 $3.27 20% $3.95 154,550 156,484 -1% $4.02 $4.05 -1% $3.26 198,833 201,507 -1%

Average 7% 0% -18% -2%

Dividend-PayingARC Resources ARX $2.17 $2.23 -3% $2.18 114,807 115,046 0% $2.00 $2.43 -18% $1.69 124,000 123,761 0%

Baytex Energy BTE $2.58 $2.62 -1% $2.56 87,000 84,800 3% $1.88 $2.30 -18% $1.69 89,000 79,831 11%

Bonavista Energy BNP $1.77 $1.74 1% $1.79 81,000 79,950 1% $1.55 $1.61 -4% $1.26 85,000 80,001 6%

Bonterra Energy BNE $3.58 $3.46 3% $3.61 13,000 12,816 1% $3.26 $3.85 -15% $1.25 13,800 12,860 7%

Cardinal Energy CJ $1.58 $1.62 -2% $1.65 11,200 11,650 -4% $1.07 $1.64 -35% $1.92 11,700 14,360 -19%

Crescent Point Energy CPG $4.02 $4.11 -2% $4.04 163,500 163,506 0% $3.23 $3.92 -18% $0.72 179,000 172,406 4%

Enerplus ERF $2.39 $2.54 -6% $2.41 101,000 84,800 19% $1.76 $2.28 -23% $2.45 103,500 103,394 0%

Freehold Royalties FRU $1.11 $1.11 0% $1.11 10,687 10,398 3% $1.01 $1.11 -9% $1.03 10,169 10,147 0%

Granite Oil GXO $1.60 $1.70 -6% $1.65 6,636 5,502 21% $1.08 $1.35 -21% $0.68 3,900 4,167 -6%

Lightstream Resources LTS $0.96 $0.99 -3% $0.98 31,600 31,303 1% $0.22 $0.49 -56% $0.76 27,000 25,643 5%

Northern Blizzard NBZ $1.59 $1.65 -3% $1.55 21,800 21,511 1% $1.35 $1.62 -16% -$0.12 22,500 21,274 6%

Pengrowth Energy PGF $0.85 $0.84 2% $0.85 72,000 71,278 1% $0.70 $0.71 -2% $1.10 73,000 66,067 10%

Penn West Petroleum PWT $0.47 $0.51 -7% $0.48 91,250 86,799 5% $0.43 $0.60 -28% $0.63 90,250 73,069 24%

Peyto Exploration PEY $3.46 $3.51 -1% $3.50 86,500 85,067 2% $3.90 $4.11 -5% $0.05 103,000 102,044 1%

PrairieSky Royalty PSK $1.19 $1.04 14% $1.19 16,983 17,552 -3% $0.86 $1.08 -20% $3.40 22,044 17,640 25%

Surge Energy SGY $0.58 $0.56 3% $0.58 16,350 16,498 -1% $0.32 $0.48 -35% $0.71 14,250 14,081 1%

TORC Oil & Gas TOG $0.78 $0.99 -21% $0.84 15,480 15,455 0% $0.81 $1.12 -28% $0.14 18,650 18,111 3%

Trilogy Energy TET $0.85 $0.92 -7% $0.87 30,000 29,279 2% $0.92 $1.01 -9% $0.52 27,500 26,725 3%

Twin Butte Energy TBE $0.51 $0.51 2% $0.51 17,500 17,501 0% $0.21 $0.30 -29% $0.68 17,000 16,587 2%

Vermilion Energy VET $4.57 $4.63 -1% $4.58 55,250 54,954 1% $4.16 $5.83 -29% $0.07 65,000 63,410 3%

Whitecap Resources WCP $1.71 $1.72 -1% $1.71 40,000 40,725 -2% $1.29 $1.62 -20% $2.91 44,000 42,648 3%

E&P Dividend-Paying Group Average -2% 2% -21% 4%

Notes:

1) All Encana figures are in $USD unless stated otherwise. Consensus numbers converted from $CAD to $USD using currency strip pricing; 0.782 USD/CAD for 2015 and 0.77 USD/CAD for 2016.


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Exhibit 11. CIBC vs Consensus Junior, International, and Oilfield Services Cos


2015E CFPS 2015E Production 2016E CFPS 2016E Production

Company Ticker CIBC Base Consensus Difference CIBC Strip CIBC Base Consensus Difference CIBC Base Consensus Difference CIBC Strip CIBC Base Consensus Difference

JuniorAdvantage Oil & Gas AAV $0.71 $0.79 -9% $0.71 23,524 24,719 -5% $1.02 $1.14 -11% $0.92 32,696 33,752 -3%

Bellatrix Exploration BXE $0.52 $0.53 -2% $0.57 41,389 41,041 1% $0.64 $0.69 -7% $0.49 39,750 39,405 1%

Birchcliff Energy BIR $1.05 $1.11 -6% $1.08 39,035 39,530 -1% $1.23 $1.48 -16% $0.89 44,775 43,476 3%

Cequence Energy CQE $0.12 $0.14 -15% $0.12 9,500 10,143 -6% $0.10 $0.16 -39% $0.05 10,500 10,771 -3%

Crew Energy CR $0.49 $0.66 -25% $0.51 18,566 19,485 -5% $0.59 $0.78 -25% $0.45 24,000 26,555 -10%

Journey Energy JOY $1.14 $1.16 -2% $1.21 11,000 10,485 5% $0.86 $1.12 -23% $0.47 11,200 10,132 11%

Kelt Exploration KEL $0.35 $0.40 -12% $0.38 18,900 19,225 -2% $0.44 $0.69 -37% $0.24 22,000 22,658 -3%

Long Run Exploration LRE $0.69 $0.70 0% $0.72 32,775 32,609 1% $0.22 $0.28 -24% $0.12 30,000 27,344 10%

NuVista Energy NVA $0.82 $0.86 -4% $0.85 22,510 22,534 0% $0.81 $0.93 -13% $0.73 25,260 26,449 -4%

Painted Pony Petroleum PPY $0.32 $0.41 -22% $0.33 15,655 16,126 -3% $0.63 $0.83 -25% $0.45 23,000 22,998 0%

Paramount Resources POU $0.75 $1.16 -36% $0.90 45,000 47,679 -6% $1.36 $3.14 -57% $0.50 55,635 62,693 -11%

Perpetual Energy PMT $0.01 $0.02 -37% $0.02 19,500 20,189 -3% $0.01 $0.07 -79% -$0.06 18,015 19,407 -7%

Pine Cliff Energy PNE $0.10 $0.11 -6% $0.10 12,745 12,159 5% $0.14 $0.13 5% $0.07 22,960 12,024 91%

Raging River Exploration RRX $0.83 $0.82 2% $0.88 13,600 13,584 0% $0.88 $1.02 -14% $0.65 17,000 14,995 13%

RMP Energy RMP $0.75 $0.77 -3% $0.78 12,100 12,083 0% $0.57 $0.75 -24% $0.42 10,750 12,548 -14%

Seven Generations Energy VII $1.41 $1.54 -9% $1.48 60,330 58,556 3% $2.45 $2.36 4% $1.99 103,500 96,391 7%

Spartan Energy SPE $0.23 $0.24 -4% $0.25 8,789 8,742 1% $0.25 $0.32 -22% $0.15 9,106 9,292 -2%

Storm Resources SRX $0.32 $0.39 -18% $0.33 9,898 10,960 -10% $0.30 $0.63 -53% $0.16 15,387 17,383 -11%

Tamarack Valley TVE $0.62 $0.65 -5% $0.66 8,280 8,153 2% $0.57 $0.72 -21% $0.42 8,931 9,344 -4%

Average -11% -1% -26% 4%

InternationalBankers Petroleum BNK $0.61 $0.76 -20% $0.61 19,385 19,736 -2% $0.17 $0.66 -74% $0.13 16,547 19,463 -15%

Canacol Energy CNE $0.54 $0.93 -42% $0.54 11,504 11,504 0% $0.57 $1.88 -70% $0.48 14,414 22,046 -35%

Gran Tierra Energy GTE $0.41 $0.50 -19% $0.37 23,538 19,041 24% $0.70 $0.80 -12% $0.23 28,407 22,612 26%

Oryx Petroleum OXC -$0.16 -$0.24 -31% -$0.17 2,376 1,972 21% -$0.04 $0.01 -820% -$0.30 6,274 5,572 13%

Pacific Rubiales PRE $2.14 $2.13 0% $1.99 175,065 166,160 5% $3.77 $1.95 93% $0.12 147,168 130,064 13%

Parex Resources PXT $0.96 $1.34 -28% $0.94 27,400 27,570 -1% $1.56 $1.84 -15% $0.32 30,886 30,692 1%

TransGlobe Energy TGL $0.07 $0.29 -77% $0.00 14,584 14,185 3% $0.54 $0.73 -26% -$0.50 13,218 13,713 -4%

Average -31% 7% -132% 0%

Oilfield Services 2015E Revenue 2015E EBITDA 2016E Revenue 2016E EBITDACompany Ticker CIBC Base Consensus Difference CIBC Base Consensus Difference CIBC Base Consensus Difference CIBC Base Consensus Difference

Black Diamond Group BDI $288 $289 0% $64 $92 -31% $207 $247 -16% $78 $82 -5%

Calfrac Well Services CFW $1,479 $1,479 0% $45 $29 57% $1,133 $1,192 -5% $120 $54 122%

Canyon Services Group FRC $419 $408 3% $21 $33 -35% $328 $415 -21% $67 $47 44%

Enerflex EFX $1,635 $1,655 -1% $185 $218 -15% $1,287 $1,325 -3% $197 $192 3%

Ensign Energy Services ESI $1,396 $1,408 -1% $183 $312 -41% $914 $1,212 -25% $257 $258 -1%

Mullen Group MTL $1,232 $1,239 -1% $191 $227 -16% $1,130 $1,237 -9% $226 $215 5%

Pason Systems PSI $286 $289 -1% $63 $101 -37% $233 $273 -15% $107 $99 8%

Precision Drilling PD $2,351 $1,550 52% $317 $471 -33% $1,176 $1,354 -13% $515 $374 38%

Savanna Energy Services SVY $441 $436 1% $71 $99 -28% $309 $392 -21% $100 $81 23%

Secure Energy Services SES $1,330 $1,399 -5% $118 $114 3% $1,262 $1,490 -15% $166 $143 16%

Total Energy Services TOT $296 $292 1% $32 $53 -39% $222 $259 -14% $60 $48 23%

Trican Well Service TCW $1,289 $1,311 -2% $22 -$26 -185% $879 $1,155 -24% $99 $56 78%

Trinidad Drilling TDG $502 $553 -9% $126 $181 -31% $344 $551 -38% $176 $164 8%

Western Energy Services WRG $234 $228 3% $37 $60 -39% $182 $229 -20% $72 $52 38%

Average 3% -33% -17% 28%

Notes:


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Exhibit 12. Senior Oil & Gas Producers Operating Metrics


CIBC Base Price Case

Production Per Share Growth CFPS Growth EPS Growth

2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E

Cenovus Energy CVE 6% -2% -3% 11% 3% -4% -56% -16% 59% 15% -46% -119% 176% -199% 70%

Husky Energy HSE 9% 2% -5% -2% 5% 6% -40% -2% 43% 19% -4% -102% -375% 1291% 43%

Imperial Oil IMO 5% 17% 16% 6% 3% 24% -44% -12% 86% 13% 9% -63% -44% 198% 17%

Suncor Energy SU R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R

Integrated Average 7% 6% 3% 5% 4% 9% -47% -10% 63% 15% -14% -94% -81% 430% 43%

Canadian Natural Resources CNQ 18% 8% -2% 7% 8% 27% -42% -20% 95% 26% 55% -97% -826% -466% 62%

Canadian Oil Sands COS R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R

Encana ECA (US) -8% -24% -13% -6% -3% 13% -57% -29% 98% 35% 25% -113% 116% -240% 107%

Tourmaline Oil TOU 39% 27% 25% 2% 5% 64% -14% 2% 32% 4% 178% -92% -282% -259% 2%

Large Cap Average 17% 4% 3% 1% 3% 35% -38% -16% 75% 22% 86% -101% -331% -322% 57%

Total Average 12% 5% 3% 3% 4% 22% -42% -13% 69% 19% 36% -98% -206% 54% 50%

Production (Boe/d) Total Cash Flow/Boe FCF Yield

2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E

Cenovus Energy CVE 284,787 280,643 272,674 303,106 311,669 $31.56 $9.20 $16.89 $20.68 $22.99 5% 20% -2% 4% 1%

Husky Energy HSE 340,525 345,974 350,163 362,464 390,462 $44.46 $26.27 $26.88 $39.28 $44.28 2% 1% 3% 15% 16%

Imperial Oil IMO 309,910 362,041 420,341 444,244 459,658 $46.99 $22.53 $17.17 $30.17 $32.94 2% -1% 2% 7% 7%


Integrated Average $41.00 $19.33 $20.31 $30.04 $33.40 3% 7% 1% 9% 8%

Canadian Natural Resources CNQ 790,199 853,422 835,385 890,949 960,998 $33.24 $17.92 $14.61 $26.80 $31.17 -4% 3% 2% 16% 26%


Encana ECA (US) 478,358 403,899 362,938 343,081 331,726 $15.53 $9.41 $7.69 $16.13 $22.45 -83% 32% -18% 1% 17%

Tourmaline Oil TOU 112,929 154,550 198,833 202,500 212,667 $22.54 $14.98 $12.23 $15.91 $15.83 -6% -17% 0% -2% -5%

Large Cap Average $23.77 $14.10 $11.51 $19.61 $23.15 -31% 6% -6% 5% 12%

Total Average $32.39 $16.72 $15.91 $24.83 $28.28 -14% 6% -2% 7% 10%

Notes:




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Exhibit 13. Senior Oil & Gas Producers Operating Metrics


Forward Strip CaseProduction Per Share Growth CFPS Growth EPS Growth

2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E

Cenovus Energy CVE 6% -2% -3% 11% 3% -4% -56% -47% 4% 33% -46% -119% 550% 5% -26%

Husky Energy HSE 9% 2% -5% -2% 5% 6% -40% -50% 26% 47% -4% -102% 4012% -21% -62%

Imperial Oil IMO 5% 17% 16% 6% 3% 24% -44% -31% 37% 16% 9% -63% -96% -348% 94%


Integrated Average 7% 6% 3% 5% 4% 9% -47% -43% 22% 32% -14% -94% 1489% -121% 2%

Canadian Natural Resources CNQ 18% 8% -2% 7% 8% 27% -42% -45% 58% 32% 55% -97% -1955% nm -142%


Encana ECA (US) -8% -24% -13% -6% -3% 13% -57% -51% -7% 41% 25% -113% 280% 3% -27%

Tourmaline Oil TOU 39% 27% 25% 2% 5% 64% -14% -17% 17% 11% 178% -91% -562% -40% -27%

Large Cap Average 17% 4% 3% 1% 3% 35% -38% -38% 23% 28% 86% -101% -746% -19% -65%

Total Average 12% 5% 3% 3% 4% 22% -42% -40% 23% 30% 36% -98% 372% -80% -32%

Production (Boe/d) Total Cash Flow/Boe FCF Yield

2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E

Cenovus Energy CVE 284,787 280,643 272,674 303,106 311,669 $31.56 $9.20 $12.60 $8.59 $11.00 6% 21% -6% -5% -9%

Husky Energy HSE 340,525 345,974 350,163 362,464 390,462 $44.46 $26.27 $13.71 $17.72 $24.81 2% 1% -9% -5% -3%

Imperial Oil IMO 309,910 362,041 420,341 444,244 459,658 $46.99 $22.53 $13.33 $17.23 $19.29 2% -1% 1% 1% 1%


Integrated Average $41.00 $19.33 $13.21 $14.51 $18.36 3% 7% -5% -3% -4%

Canadian Natural Resources CNQ 790,199 853,422 835,385 890,949 960,998 $33.24 $17.92 $10.08 $15.00 $18.34 -4% 3% -3% 2% 8%


Encana ECA (US) 478,358 403,899 362,938 343,081 331,726 $15.53 $9.41 $5.24 $5.19 $7.58 -83% 32% -29% -43% -41%

Tourmaline Oil TOU 112,929 154,550 198,833 202,500 212,667 $22.54 $15.03 $9.93 $11.44 $12.10 -6% -17% -4% -9% -11%

Large Cap Average $23.77 $14.12 $8.42 $10.54 $12.67 -31% 6% -12% -17% -15%

Total Average $32.39 $16.73 $10.82 $12.53 $15.52 -14% 7% -8% -10% -9%

Notes:




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Exhibit 14. Senior Oil & Gas Producers Valuation


CIBC Base Price Case 3 4 5 6 7 11 12 13 14 15 18 19 20 21 22

Net Debt/Capitalization Net Debt/Cash Flow Total Payout Ratio

2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E

Cenovus Energy CVE 31% 15% 21% 21% 23% 1.3x 1.3x 2.2x 1.3x 1.3x 103% nm 158% 97% 116%

Husky Energy HSE 16% 32% 32% 25% 20% 0.7x 2.3x 2.2x 1.1x 0.7x 111% 131% 87% 70% 85%

Imperial Oil IMO 23% 26% 23% 17% 10% 1.3x 2.7x 2.7x 1.1x 0.6x 97% 127% 85% 59% 63%


Integrated Average 23% 24% 25% 21% 18% 1.1x 2.1x 2.4x 1.2x 0.9x 104% 129% 110% 75% 88%

Canadian Natural Resources CNQ 33% 38% 41% 34% 20% 1.5x 3.0x 3.9x 1.6x 0.7x 136% 102% 113% 62% 47%


Encana ECA (US) 42% 42% 54% 53% 47% 2.4x 3.5x 6.2x 3.2x 2.2x 175% 21% 161% 101% 83%

Tourmaline Oil TOU 21% 23% 24% 25% 27% 1.2x 1.9x 1.8x 1.5x 1.6x 168% 182% 101% 111% 122%

Large Cap Average 32% 34% 40% 37% 31% 1.7x 2.8x 4.0x 2.1x 1.5x 160% 101% 125% 91% 84%

Total Average 28% 29% 32% 29% 25% 1.4x 2.4x 3.2x 1.6x 1.2x 132% 112% 118% 83% 86%

EV/DACF P/EPS P/RNAV

2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E CIBC Base US$50/Bbl,

US$3.00/Mcf

US$60/Bbl,

US$3.50/Mcf

US$70/Bbl,

US$4.00/Mcf

US$80/Bbl,

US$4.50/Mcf

Cenovus Energy CVE 4.6x 8.2x 10.3x 6.9x 6.3x 19.8x na na na 23.0x 76% nm nm 161% 109%

Husky Energy HSE 6.2x 5.8x 5.9x 3.8x 3.0x 6.5x na na 10.8x 7.6x 69% nm 109% 84% 69%

Imperial Oil IMO 7.9x 14.5x 16.2x 8.3x 6.9x 11.7x na na 19.1x 16.4x 94% nm nm 174% 117%


Integrated Average 6.2x 9.5x 10.8x 6.3x 5.4x 12.6x nm nm 15.0x 15.6x 80% nm 109% 140% 98%

Canadian Natural Resources CNQ 6.0x 7.4x 9.1x 4.5x 3.1x 7.9x na na 11.7x 7.2x 83% nm nm 133% 92%


Encana ECA (US) 2.9x 4.0x 6.7x 3.9x 2.9x 3.6x na na 9.1x 4.4x 46% nm 135% 55% 35%

Tourmaline Oil TOU 11.7x 7.4x 7.1x 5.5x 5.5x 10.0x na na na na 75% nm 100% 66% 50%

Large Cap Average 6.9x 6.3x 7.6x 4.7x 3.8x 7.2x nm na 10.4x 5.8x 68% nm 117% 85% 59%

Total Average 6.6x 7.9x 9.2x 5.5x 4.6x 9.9x nm nm 12.7x 11.7x 74% nm 115% 112% 79%

Notes:




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Exhibit 15. Senior Oil & Gas Producers Valuation


Forward Strip Case

Net Debt/Capitalization Net Debt/Cash Flow Total Payout Ratio

2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E

Cenovus Energy CVE 31% 15% 24% 33% 43% 1.3x 1.3x 4.0x 5.2x 5.4x 103% nm 249% 236% 243%

Husky Energy HSE 16% 32% 40% 46% 54% 0.7x 2.3x 5.4x 4.6x 3.6x 111% 131% 171% 156% 151%

Imperial Oil IMO 23% 26% 25% 26% 27% 1.3x 2.7x 3.8x 2.8x 2.5x 97% 127% 110% 103% 108%


Integrated Average 23% 24% 30% 35% 41% 1.1x 2.1x 4.4x 4.2x 3.8x 104% 129% 177% 165% 167%

Canadian Natural Resources CNQ 33% 38% 44% 47% 45% 1.5x 3.0x 6.2x 4.0x 2.8x 136% 102% 163% 111% 80%


Encana ECA (US) 42% 42% 57% 65% 70% 2.4x 3.5x 9.7x 12.6x 10.4x 175% 21% 237% 315% 245%

Tourmaline Oil TOU 21% 23% 26% 31% 36% 1.2x 1.8x 2.4x 2.6x 3.0x 168% 181% 125% 154% 160%

Large Cap Average 32% 34% 42% 47% 51% 1.7x 2.8x 6.1x 6.4x 5.4x 160% 101% 175% 193% 161%

Total Average 28% 29% 36% 41% 46% 1.4x 2.4x 5.3x 5.3x 4.6x 132% 112% 176% 179% 164%

EV/DACF P/EPS P/RNAV

2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Forward Strip US$50/Bbl,

US$3.00/Mcf

US$60/Bbl,

US$3.50/Mcf

US$70/Bbl,

US$4.00/Mcf

US$80/Bbl,

US$4.50/Mcf

Cenovus Energy CVE 4.4x 7.9x 14.8x 15.5x 13.6x 19.8x na na na na nm nm 200% 120% 88%

Husky Energy HSE 6.2x 5.8x 12.2x 10.1x 7.3x 6.5x na na na na nm 176% 109% 84% 69%

Imperial Oil IMO 8.0x 14.7x 21.1x 15.6x 13.6x 11.7x na na na na 216% nm nm 185% 121%


Integrated Average 6.2x 9.5x 16.0x 13.7x 11.5x 12.6x nm na nm nm 216% 176% 154% 130% 93%

Canadian Natural Resources CNQ 6.0x 7.9x 13.9x 9.5x 7.1x 7.9x na na na na 232% nm 179% 101% 71%


Encana ECA (US) 2.9x 4.0x 9.0x 10.7x 9.4x 3.6x na na na na nm nm 135% 55% 35%

Tourmaline Oil TOU 11.7x 7.4x 8.8x 8.0x 7.7x 10.0x na na na na 98% 244% 100% 66% 50%

Large Cap Average 6.9x 6.4x 10.6x 9.4x 8.1x 7.2x na na na nm 165% 244% 138% 74% 52%

Total Average 6.5x 8.0x 13.3x 11.6x 9.8x 9.9x nm na nm nm 182% 210% 144% 102% 72%

Notes:




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Exhibit 16. Senior Oil & Gas Producers Per Share Metrics


CIBC Base Price Case Forward Strip Case

Cash Flow Per Share ($) Earnings Per Share ($) Cash Flow Per Share ($) Earnings Per Share ($)

2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E

Cenovus Energy CVE $4.59 $2.03 $1.71 $2.72 $3.12 $0.84 -$0.16 -$0.43 $0.42 $0.72 $4.59 $2.03 $1.08 $1.12 $1.48 $0.84 -$0.16 -$1.01 -$1.05 -$0.78

CAGR (%) -4% -35% -29% -13% -8% -46% na -165% -28% -14% -4% -35% -39% -30% -21% -5% na -197% na -196%

Husky Energy HSE $5.62 $3.37 $3.29 $4.70 $5.58 $2.07 -$0.03 $0.09 $1.24 $1.77 $5.62 $3.37 $1.68 $2.12 $3.13 $2.07 -$0.03 -$1.34 -$1.05 ($0.41)

CAGR (%) 6% -20% -15% -3% 1% -4% na -65% -13% -4% 6% -20% -32% -21% -10% 0% na -197% na -191%

Imperial Oil IMO $6.25 $3.50 $3.10 $5.75 $6.50 $3.63 $1.33 $0.74 $2.22 $2.59 $6.25 $3.50 $2.40 $3.28 $3.81 $3.63 $1.33 $0.05 ($0.13) ($0.24)

CAGR (%) 24% -17% -15% 3% 5% 9% -37% -39% -10% -5% 24% -17% -22% -10% -6% 1% -6% -24% na -186%

Suncor Energy SU R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R

CAGR (%) R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R

Integrated Average $5.49 $2.97 $2.70 $4.39 $5.07 $2.18 $0.38 $0.14 $1.29 $1.69 $5.49 $2.97 $1.72 $2.18 $2.81 $2.18 $0.38 -$0.76 -$0.74 ($0.48)

CAGR (%) Average 3% -26% -20% -5% -1% -7% -60% -61% -14% -6% 3% -26% -31% -20% -12% -7% -60% -169% na -173%

Canadian Natural Resources CNQ $8.74 $5.10 $4.08 $7.96 $10.02 $3.47 $0.09 -$0.64 $2.33 $3.77 $8.74 $5.10 $2.82 $4.46 $5.89 $3.47 $0.09 -$1.63 -$0.65 $0.27

CAGR (%) 27% -14% -16% 4% 8% 55% -80% -166% 1% 11% 27% -14% -26% -10% -3% 3% -21% -198% na -12%

Canadian Oil Sands COS R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R

CAGR (%) R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R

Encana ECA $3.96 $1.69 $1.20 $2.38 $3.20 $1.35 -$0.18 -$0.38 $0.54 $1.11 $3.96 $1.69 $0.82 $0.76 $1.08 $1.35 -$0.18 -$0.68 -$0.69 -$0.51

CAGR (%) 13% -31% -30% -9% -2% 25% na -171% -16% 0% 13% -31% -38% -32% -21% 2% na -197% na -196%

Tourmaline Oil TOU $4.58 $3.94 $4.02 $5.31 $5.55 $2.29 $0.19 ($0.35) $0.56 $0.57 $4.58 $3.95 $3.26 $3.82 $4.24 $2.29 $0.20 -$0.91 -$0.55 -$0.40

CAGR (%) 64% 19% 13% 17% 15% 178% -52% -175% -9% -7% 64% 19% 5% 8% 9% 8% -10% -201% na -196%

Large Cap Average $5.76 $3.58 $3.10 $5.22 $6.25 $2.37 $0.03 -$0.46 $1.14 $1.82 $5.76 $3.58 $2.30 $3.01 $3.74 $2.37 $0.04 -$1.07 -$0.63 ($0.21)

CAGR (%) Average 45% -5% -8% 7% 9% 72% -84% -169% -5% 6% 45% -5% -17% -7% -1% 72% -84% -192% na -169%

Total Average $5.62 $3.27 $2.90 $4.80 $5.66 $2.27 $0.21 ($0.16) $1.22 $1.76 $5.62 $3.27 $2.01 $2.59 $3.27 $2.27 $0.21 -$0.92 -$0.69 ($0.35)

CAGR (%) Average 20% -16% -15% 1% 4% 22% -67% -144% -10% -1% 20% -16% -24% -14% -7% 22% -66% -179% na -171%

Notes:




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Exhibit 17. Senior Oil & Gas Producers Capital Expenditures, Cash Flow and Free Cash Flow


CIBC Base Price Case 3 4 5 6 7 9 10 11 12 13 15 16 17 18 19

Net Capital Expenditures ($ millions) Cash Flow ($ millions) Free Cash Flow ($ million) - net of A&D

2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E

Cenovus Energy CVE $2,790 -$1,111 $1,704 $1,665 $2,470 $3,479 $1,683 $1,414 $2,264 $2,596 $688 -$144 -$290 $599 $126

Husky Energy HSE $4,961 $3,162 $2,990 $3,014 $3,994 $5,526 $3,318 $3,435 $5,196 $6,310 $431 $135 $445 $2,182 $2,316

Imperial Oil IMO $4,736 $3,331 $1,776 $2,402 $3,009 $5,315 $2,977 $2,634 $4,892 $5,527 -$272 -$471 $858 $2,490 $2,518


Integrated Average $4,162 $1,794 $2,157 $2,361 $3,158 $4,773 $2,659 $2,495 $4,117 $4,811 $282 -$160 $338 $1,757 $1,653

Canadian Natural Resources CNQ $11,581 $4,608 $4,032 $4,421 $4,134 $9,202 $5,501 $4,468 $8,716 $10,962 $521 $355 $436 $4,294 $6,828


Encana ECA $4,987 $183 $1,600 $2,000 $2,200 $2,966 $1,393 $1,021 $2,019 $2,718 $440 -$816 -$579 $19 $518

Tourmaline Oil TOU $1,564 $1,535 $900 $1,300 $1,500 $929 $845 $890 $1,176 $1,229 -$167 -$774 -$10 -$124 -$271

Large Cap Average $6,044 $2,109 $2,177 $2,574 $2,611 $4,366 $2,580 $2,127 $3,970 $4,970 $265 -$412 -$51 $1,397 $2,358

Total Average $5,103 $1,951 $2,167 $2,467 $2,885 $4,570 $2,620 $2,311 $4,044 $4,890 $274 -$286 $144 $1,577 $2,006

Forward Strip Case

Net Capital Expenditures ($ millions) Cash Flow ($ millions) Free Cash Flow ($ million) - net of A&D

2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E

Cenovus Energy CVE $2,790 -$1,111 $1,704 $1,665 $2,470 $3,479 $1,683 $896 $933 $1,237 $688 -$144 -$808 -$732 -$1,233

Husky Energy HSE $4,961 $3,162 $2,990 $3,014 $3,994 $5,526 $3,318 $1,753 $2,344 $3,536 $431 $135 -$1,238 -$670 -$458

Imperial Oil IMO $4,736 $3,331 $1,776 $2,402 $3,009 $5,315 $2,977 $2,045 $2,793 $3,236 -$272 -$471 $269 $391 $227


Integrated Average $4,162 $1,794 $2,157 $2,361 $3,158 $4,773 $2,659 $1,564 $2,024 $2,670 $282 -$160 -$592 -$337 -$488

Canadian Natural Resources CNQ $11,581 $4,608 $4,032 $4,421 $4,134 $9,202 $5,501 $3,082 $4,878 $6,450 $521 $355 -$950 $457 $2,315


Encana ECA $4,987 $183 $1,600 $2,000 $2,200 $2,966 $1,393 $696 $649 $918 $440 -$816 -$904 -$1,351 -$1,282

Tourmaline Oil TOU $1,564 $1,535 $900 $1,300 $1,500 $929 $848 $723 $846 $939 -$167 -$772 -$177 -$454 -$561

Large Cap Average $6,044 $2,109 $2,177 $2,574 $2,611 $4,366 $2,580 $1,500 $2,124 $2,769 $265 -$411 -$677 -$449 $158

Total Average $5,103 $1,951 $2,167 $2,467 $2,885 $4,570 $2,620 $1,532 $2,074 $2,719 $274 -$286 -$635 -$393 -$165

Notes:




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Exhibit 18. Dividend Paying E&Ps Investment Ratings and Valuation


Investment Rating and Valuation

Total

Shares Mkt. Cap Total Senior Conv. Enterprise Total Cur. Drawn ($M) Target Expected

Company Ticker Price High Low O/S (M) Cap ($M) Debt Notes Debs. Value 2015E 2016E 2017E Avail ($M) Current Current 2016E Price Return Rating Analyst

ARC ARX $15.45 $25.73 $14.43 344.2 $5,318 $996 $1,036 $0 $6,314 1.2x 1.4x 0.9x $1,040 $0 0% 7% $24.00 63% SO KalielBaytex BTE $2.36 $24.87 $2.23 210.2 $496 $1,925 $1,560 $0 $2,421 3.4x 4.2x 2.1x $1,200 $204 17% 18% $6.50 175% SP KalielBonavista BNP $1.13 $9.26 $1.07 217.8 $246 $1,305 $1,009 $0 $1,552 2.9x 3.0x 1.9x $600 $237 40% 53% $3.00 176% SO Kaliel

Bonterra BNE $13.20 $46.57 $12.76 33.1 $437 $365 $0 $0 $802 3.0x 3.0x 1.4x $425 $336 79% 71% $21.00 68% SP Kaliel

Cardinal CJ $6.46 $16.84 $6.15 65.2 $421 $71 $0 $0 $492 0.4x 0.4x 0.5x $150 $53 35% 39% $13.00 108% SO Gill

Crescent Point CPG $13.28 $33.85 $11.31 504.6 $6,701 $4,158 $2,213 $0 $10,860 2.1x 2.4x 1.6x $3,600 $2,186 61% 59% $23.00 82% SO Kaliel

Enerplus ERF $3.37 $16.09 $3.14 206.5 $696 $1,085 $1,116 $0 $1,781 2.5x 3.0x 1.6x $800 $110 14% 0% $6.50 104% SP Kaliel

Freehold * FRU $9.62 $20.62 $8.50 90.5 $945 $147 $0 $0 $1,092 1.5x 1.3x 0.7x $210 $122 58% 51% $11.50 28% SP Grayfer

Granite GXO $6.72 $7.05 $4.06 30.3 $204 $42 $0 $0 $245 0.6x 1.4x 0.3x $115 $28 25% 42% $7.50 18% SO GillLightstream LTS $0.23 $1.81 $0.19 198.0 $45 $1,594 $1,204 $6 $1,638 8.1x 34.0x 10.2x $750 $350 47% 67% $0.30 33% SU Kaliel

Northern Blizzard NBZ $3.25 $9.75 $3.05 110.6 $360 $366 $363 $0 $726 2.2x 2.2x 0.9x $475 $0 0% 0% $7.25 138% SO Kaliel

Pengrowth PGF $0.78 $4.48 $0.69 543.0 $424 $1,980 $1,556 $137 $2,404 3.8x 4.0x 3.8x $1,250 $97 8% 0% $1.50 97% SP Kaliel

Penn West PWT $0.86 $3.44 $0.60 502.2 $432 $1,546 $1,697 $0 $1,977 8.0x 9.2x 3.8x $1,200 $155 13% 25% $1.00 16% SU Kaliel

Peyto PEY $26.61 $37.31 $21.55 159.0 $4,230 $1,039 $420 $0 $5,269 1.9x 2.0x 1.5x $1,000 $540 54% 82% $37.00 44% SO Kaliel

PrairieSky * PSK $19.92 $34.67 $18.19 228.3 $4,549 -$234 $0 $0 $4,314 -1.3x -0.9x -0.7x $150 $0 0% 0% $25.00 32% SO Grayfer

Surge SGY $1.62 $4.57 $1.56 220.9 $358 $146 $0 $0 $504 1.2x 2.4x 1.0x $400 $131 33% 38% $3.00 94% SP Kaliel

TORC TOG $4.14 $11.57 $3.88 160.6 $665 $286 $0 $0 $951 1.7x 1.4x 1.1x $550 $228 41% 51% $6.50 70% SO GillTrilogy TET $2.41 $10.05 $2.27 126.1 $304 $574 $296 $0 $878 5.2x 4.4x 2.5x $450 $241 53% 41% $5.50 128% SP KalielTwin Butte TBE $0.08 $1.04 $0.06 354.0 $28 $308 $0 $80 $337 1.5x 3.8x 1.5x $225 $210 94% 90% $0.10 25% SP KalielVermilion VET $33.92 $62.80 $31.73 110.8 $3,759 $1,400 $225 $0 $5,159 2.8x 2.9x 1.7x $2,000 $1,270 64% 63% $56.00 73% SO KalielWhitecap WCP $6.71 $15.62 $6.50 298.9 $2,005 $842 $0 $0 $2,848 1.7x 2.1x 1.3x $1,200 $783 65% 65% $14.50 127% SO KalielE&P Total/Average $27,128 $20,030 $12,696 $223 $47,158 2.9x 4.6x 2.1x 39% 43% 86%Royalty Total/Average * $5,493 ($87) na na $5,406 0.1x 0.2x 0.0x 29% 25% 30%

Core Risked EV/ EV/P+P

P+P NAV NAV P/Core P/Risked P/Bluesky Prd'n Reserves

Company Ticker 2016E 2017E 2016E 2017E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2016E 2017E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2015E 2016E 2017E ($/sh) ($/sh) NAV NAV NAV ($/boe/d) ($/boe)

ARC ARX $1.20 $1.20 7.8% 7.8% $2.17 $2.00 $2.64 -7.6% 32.0% 7.1x 7.7x 5.8x 7.7x 7.3x 6.2x $7.53 $26.92 205% 57% 29% $50,917 $9.56Baytex BTE $0.00 $0.00 0.0% 0.0% $2.58 $1.88 $3.10 -27.3% 65.3% 0.9x 1.3x 0.8x 3.2x 2.9x 2.5x $8.23 $23.60 29% 10% 6% $27,203 $5.61Bonavista BNP $0.12 $0.12 10.6% 10.6% $1.77 $1.55 $2.01 -12.1% 29.1% 0.6x 0.7x 0.6x 3.1x 2.9x 2.2x $2.40 $9.26 47% 12% 7% $18,253 $3.64Bonterra BNE $1.20 $1.20 9.1% 9.1% $3.58 $3.26 $5.25 -8.9% 61.2% 3.7x 4.0x 2.5x 5.5x 4.4x 3.6x $13.06 $38.40 101% 34% 19% $58,148 $8.60Cardinal CJ $0.42 $0.42 6.5% 6.5% $1.58 $1.07 $2.33 -32.4% 118.2% 4.1x 6.0x 2.8x 5.8x 7.0x 3.1x $10.65 $12.26 61% 53% 43% $34,012 $8.05Crescent Point CPG $1.20 $1.20 9.0% 9.0% $4.02 $3.23 $4.44 -19.6% 37.4% 3.3x 4.1x 3.0x 4.6x 4.5x 4.2x $14.11 $34.57 94% 38% 22% $60,668 $11.71Enerplus ERF $0.36 $0.36 10.7% 10.7% $2.39 $1.76 $2.93 -26.5% 66.4% 1.4x 1.9x 1.2x 3.4x 3.3x 2.5x $7.38 $13.40 46% 25% 16% $17,210 $4.58Freehold * FRU $0.84 $0.84 8.7% 8.7% $1.11 $1.01 $1.30 -8.8% 28.8% 12.8x 8.7x 6.8x 14.6x 9.6x 7.4x $7.10 na 136% na na $107,374 naGranite GXO $0.42 $0.60 6.3% 8.9% $1.60 $1.08 $1.84 nm 71.1% nm 6.2x 3.7x nm 7.0x 3.8x $4.63 $5.57 145% 121% 44% $56,967 $14.48Lightstream LTS $0.00 $0.00 0.0% 0.0% $0.96 $0.22 $0.71 -77.4% 228.3% 0.2x 1.0x 0.3x 4.7x 5.4x 5.7x $0.59 $1.70 38% 13% 6% $60,681 $10.19Northern Blizzard NBZ $0.48 $0.48 14.8% 14.8% $1.59 $1.35 $1.92 -15.1% 42.0% 2.0x 2.4x 1.7x 3.0x 3.2x 2.3x $11.69 $15.03 28% 22% 18% $32,265 $4.58Pengrowth PGF $0.04 $0.04 5.1% 5.1% $0.85 $0.70 $0.68 -17.7% -3.3% 0.9x 1.1x 1.1x 3.6x 3.3x 3.8x $2.54 $4.17 31% 19% 13% $32,930 $4.54Penn West PWT $0.00 $0.00 0.0% 0.0% $0.47 $0.43 $0.99 -8.5% 128.5% 1.8x 2.0x 0.9x 4.1x 3.5x 3.8x $1.08 $5.27 79% 16% 5% $21,910 $3.69Peyto PEY $1.32 $1.32 5.0% 5.0% $3.46 $3.90 $5.33 13.0% 36.5% 7.7x 6.8x 5.0x 8.0x 7.0x 6.1x $9.53 $33.54 279% 79% 45% $51,154 $9.91PrairieSky * PSK $1.30 $1.30 6.5% 6.5% $1.19 $0.86 $1.09 -56.4% 25.8% 16.8x 23.1x 18.4x 23.5x 22.5x 17.9x $17.36 na 115% na na $195,714 naSurge SGY $0.15 $0.15 9.3% 9.3% $0.58 $0.32 $0.59 -45.6% 87.2% 2.8x 5.1x 2.7x 3.4x 4.2x 3.5x $4.22 $5.02 38% 32% 26% $35,364 $5.66TORC TOG $0.54 $0.54 13.0% 13.0% $0.78 $0.81 $1.41 3.8% 74.2% 5.3x 5.1x 2.9x 7.1x 6.7x 3.7x $4.87 $6.99 85% 59% 32% $49,817 $10.98Trilogy TET $0.00 $0.00 0.0% 0.0% $0.85 $0.92 $1.39 8.6% 50.5% 2.8x 2.6x 1.7x 5.0x 4.3x 3.6x $3.09 $11.17 78% 22% 8% $31,914 $6.41Twin Butte TBE $0.00 $0.00 0.0% 0.0% $0.51 $0.21 $0.43 -58.9% 104.6% 0.2x 0.4x 0.2x 1.5x 2.0x 1.6x $1.20 $1.33 7% 6% 5% $19,805 $5.50Vermilion VET $2.58 $2.58 7.6% 7.6% $4.57 $4.16 $6.00 -8.8% 44.0% 7.4x 8.1x 5.7x 8.4x 6.8x 6.5x $46.70 $57.82 73% 59% 43% $79,375 $20.90Whitecap WCP $0.75 $0.75 11.2% 11.2% $1.71 $1.29 $1.81 -24.3% 40.5% 3.9x 5.2x 3.7x 5.1x 4.6x 4.7x $6.42 $15.84 105% 42% 27% $64,718 $11.41E&P Total/Average 6.6% 6.8% -20.3% 69.1% 3.1x 3.8x 2.4x 4.8x 4.8x 3.9x 83% 38% 22% $42,280 $8.4Royalty Total/Average * 7.6% 7.6% -32.6% 27.3% 14.8x 15.9x 12.6x 19.0x 16.0x 12.6x 125% na na $151,544 na

Price Forecast 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E LT

BRENT (US$/bbl) $98.84 $52.33 $45.75 $68.00 $78.00

WTI (US$/bbl) $93.03 $48.71 $45.00 $65.00 $75.00

Ed. Par (C$/bbl) $94.62 $57.29 $56.94 $78.67 $86.25

WCS Heavy (C$/bbl) $82.32 $45.21 $43.13 $68.47 $75.94

NYMEX (US$/mcf) $4.35 $2.61 $2.60 $3.25 $3.50

Natural Gas (C$/mcf) $4.47 $2.70 $2.78 $3.40 $3.13

F/X (US$/C$) $0.91 $0.78 $0.72 $0.75 $0.80

P/CF (x) EV/DACF (x)

CIBC Base Assumptions

Per Share Growth

Cash Flow from Operations

($ per Share, basic)

Dist'n/Dividends

($ per Share) Cash Yield

Drawn (%)

Bank Credit Lines

Debt/CF52-Week

Enterprise Value ($M)

Notes: E&P Total/Averages exclude Spyglass. Royalty averages include Freehold and PrairieSky, as denoted by their asterix. PrairieSky's 2014 estimates are in consideration of a 219-day stub year. Shares outstanding, net debt, and convertible debentures are based on most recent information adjusted for any equity issues or acquisitions. Debt-to-cash flow (D/CF) ratios are based on estimated year-end debt and total cash flow for 2013E and 2014E. Ratio of enterprise value to proved plus probable (P+P) reserves based on YE/14 reserve estimates adjusted for 2015 acquisitions YTD. Ratio of enterprise value to daily production is based on 2015E estimated production. Total debt includes convertible debentures as debt. Dividends per share represent declared dividends, and are based on the actual shares outstanding at the time of each dividend. Cash flow from operations per share is based on the weighted average of shares outstanding during the fiscal year. Core NAV is based on a blowdown analysis of P+P reserves, using a 9% after-tax discount rate, and is net of G&A, mgmt. fees, and abandonment costs. Risked NAV = Core NAV + Risked Unbooked Value. Bluesky NAV = Core NAV + Unrisked Unbooked Value. Ratings: SO=Sector Outperformer, SP=Sector Performer, SU=Sector Underperformer, R=Restricted. Source: Company reports; CIBC estimates.

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Exhibit 19. Dividend Paying E&Ps Key Operating Statistics


Gross Operating Operating Oil Gas FX % Total Gain/ Outflows asRevenue Hedging Costs Netback (US$5.00 (C$1.00 (US/CAD Volume Loss % Vol Avg Flr. % Vol Avg Flr. Dev. Cash % Inflows Total

Company ($/boe) ($/boe) ($/boe) (%) ($/boe) ($/boe) /bbl) /mcf) $0.05) Hedged (% of CF) Hedged (US$/Bbl) Hedged (C$/Mcf) Capex Dividend Flow DRIP (Exc. Disp) Basic Total (incl. DRIP) Sustainable

ARC $26.35 $4.04 ($3.02) 11% ($7.90) $19.47 4.7% 8.5% 6.2% 32% 26% 23% $54.03 37% $5.16 $550 $422 $704 $186 109% 60% 138% 100% 55%

Baytex $35.10 $3.38 ($8.44) 24% ($10.18) $19.86 11.2% 2.1% 9.9% 26% 24% 27% $55.41 24% $3.66 $365 $0 $398 $0 92% 0% 92% 115% 40%

Bonavista $20.77 $2.36 ($1.93) 9% ($6.75) $14.46 5.6% 13.2% 7.3% 39% 20% 9% $59.56 53% $3.55 $225 $26 $342 $1 73% 7% 73% 112% 31%

Bonterra $43.75 $0.00 ($3.54) 8% ($12.00) $28.21 8.4% 3.7% 7.0% 0% 0% 0% --- 0% --- $40 $40 $108 $0 74% 37% 74% 88% 72%

Cardinal $40.17 $3.43 ($5.22) 13% ($21.50) $16.88 7.2% 1.3% 6.0% 14% 25% 16% $62.60 0% --- $25 $27 $72 $4 69% 38% 73% 69% 81%

Crescent Point $46.38 $5.50 ($7.67) 17% ($12.25) $31.96 7.8% 1.0% 5.6% 29% 21% 29% $59.77 30% $3.76 $1,000 $606 $1,633 $0 98% 37% 98% 119% 46%

Enerplus $26.76 $2.35 ($6.68) 25% ($8.84) $13.58 9.2% 12.7% 10.6% 11% 23% 24% $64.35 0% --- $350 $74 $363 $0 117% 20% 117% 154% 25%

Freehold * $36.75 $0.00 ($0.72) 2% ($4.75) $31.28 13.2% 7.0% 9.3% na na na na na na $15 $84 $100 $13 87% 83% 98% 87% na

Granite $48.72 ($0.88) ($13.64) 28% ($6.00) $26.69 10.7% 0.6% 7.9% 13% -4% 14% $59.42 0% --- $21 $13 $34 $0 101% 38% 101% 101% na

Lightstream $39.22 $0.75 ($4.79) 12% ($12.50) $22.68 23.8% 10.1% 19.3% 9% 17% 9% $50.49 10% $2.91 $90 $0 $43 $0 209% 0% 209% 71% 0%

Northern Blizzard $39.33 $9.73 ($4.53) 12% ($17.25) $27.29 5.6% 0.5% 3.3% 58% 46% 61% $54.91 0% --- $100 $55 $156 $40 79% 35% 100% 80% 60%

Pengrowth $31.21 $11.08 ($3.59) 11% ($15.00) $23.70 4.8% 5.0% 4.1% 64% 68% 56% $65.56 76% $3.33 $150 $22 $384 $0 45% 6% 45% 82% 48%

Penn West $36.87 $1.14 ($3.78) 10% ($19.35) $14.87 18.0% 8.8% 15.1% 14% 14% 14% $51.60 15% $3.08 $325 $0 $217 $0 150% 0% 150% 83% 9%

Peyto $19.89 $0.67 ($0.92) 5% ($1.85) $17.79 1.1% 16.5% 3.9% 40% 4% 0% --- 44% $2.96 $615 $210 $621 $0 133% 34% 133% 121% 50%

PrairieSky * $30.13 $0.00 ($1.21) 4% ($3.10) $25.83 5.8% 8.7% 6.0% na na na na na na $0 $298 $198 $42 124% 150% 150% 124% na

Surge $37.46 ($0.10) ($6.61) 18% ($14.00) $16.75 12.2% 4.8% 9.9% 19% -1% 9% $43.20 50% $3.50 $50 $33 $70 $0 119% 48% 119% 120% 57%

TORC $47.17 $0.00 ($8.49) 18% ($13.07) $23.61 12.5% 1.6% 9.6% 0% 0% 0% --- 0% --- $90 $89 $134 $31 108% 66% 133% 108% na

Trilogy $26.82 $1.73 ($1.70) 6% ($9.50) $17.35 4.5% 24.0% 7.7% 12% 14% 34% $55.57 0% --- $100 $0 $117 $0 85% 0% 85% 83% 21%

Twin Butte $38.85 $1.81 ($4.81) 12% ($18.75) $17.10 11.4% 1.2% 8.6% 6% 14% 7% $61.20 0% $3.95 $85 $0 $75 $0 113% 0% 113% 101% 37%

Vermilion $41.89 $2.68 ($2.83) 7% ($10.39) $31.34 7.8% 2.4% 7.0% 19% 13% 4% $58.67 33% $6.50 $285 $295 $476 $162 91% 62% 122% 103% 60%

Whitecap $42.25 $3.61 ($5.67) 13% ($10.00) $30.19 9.0% 2.8% 4.4% 13% 14% 13% $64.27 13% $3.79 $150 $224 $386 $0 97% 58% 97% 82% 65%

E&P Total/Average $36.26 $2.80 ($5.15) 14% ($11.95) $21.78 9.2% 6.4% 8.1% 22% 18% 18% $57.54 20% $3.85 $4,616 $2,136 $6,330 $424 103% 29% 109% 100% 50%

Royalty Total/Average $0.00 ($0.96) 3% ($3.92) $28.55 9.5% 7.8% 7.7% na na na na na na $15 $382 $299 $54 106% 117% 124% 106% na

Opening Develop. Closing

Oil Gas Total Oil Gas Total Balance Net Drilling Balance Proved ProvedCompany (bbl/d) (mmcf/d) (boe/d) (% Gas) (bbl/d) (mmcf/d) (boe/d) (% Gas) 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 YE/13A Acq's & Rev. Prod'n YE/14A + Acq. Devp'd Proved + Prob.

ARC 40,182 442.9 114,807 65% 43,750 469.5 124,000 64% 1% 7% -5% 5% 0% 10% 6% 9% 633.9 (20.0) 87.5 (40.7) 660.7 4.8 8.8 15.3

Baytex 69,256 91.5 87,000 18% 59,252 100.5 89,000 22% 46% -10% 14% -4% -15% -16% 55% -7% 318.1 108.4 33.7 (28.6) 431.6 3.6 8.4 12.8

Bonavista 23,070 339.2 81,000 71% 24,883 318.7 85,000 68% 3% -2% 1% 3% 6% 0% 13% 64% 398.5 (0.8) 57.1 (28.1) 426.8 5.4 8.8 13.6

Bonterra 9,488 18.8 13,000 25% 9,530 18.4 13,800 24% -4% 0% -4% 5% -1% 3% -17% 7% 75.0 13.1 10.0 (4.8) 93.3 8.3 16.0 20.6

Cardinal 10,223 5.9 11,200 9% 10,213 8.9 11,700 13% 50% 24% 9% 4% 19% 17% 11% 38% 21.2 23.6 1.1 (2.9) 61.2 8.7 9.4 12.5

Crescent Point 147,653 93.6 163,500 10% 150,916 99.5 179,000 10% 16% 3% 2% 1% 11% 2% 7% 4% 663.8 218.2 97.1 (51.4) 927.7 5.4 10.1 14.6

Enerplus 46,806 358.2 101,000 56% 46,498 312.0 103,500 53% 3% -8% -3% 2% 9% -4% 23% 16% 400.7 (49.7) 75.5 (37.2) 389.3 4.8 6.4 10.0

Freehold * 6,667 24.1 10,687 38% 6,748 20.5 - 10,169 34% 16% -5% -8% -13% -5% -12% -4% -9% na na na na 37.0 na na na

Granite 5,602 6.2 6,636 16% 3,690 1.3 3,900 5% na -41% na 2% na -7% na -51% 39.4 1.1 15.5 (4.1) 17.0 3.8 7.5 12.2

Lightstream 23,007 51.6 31,600 27% 18,149 47.1 27,000 30% -22% -18% -21% -15% -21% -18% -70% -53% 199.0 (21.0) (2.7) (14.6) 160.7 5.0 7.7 12.1

Northern Blizzard 20,264 5.9 21,800 5% 19,000 6.0 22,500 5% 3% -6% 0% -5% 9% -5% 14% 7% 159.5 0.0 6.4 (7.6) 158.4 7.2 10.1 19.0

Pengrowth 40,764 184.4 72,000 43% 38,513 154.4 73,000 40% -2% -10% -4% 0% 2% -7% 97% 203% 476.6 (32.6) 112.3 (26.6) 529.7 6.3 11.3 21.2

Penn West 59,550 161.1 91,250 31% 52,591 134.5 90,250 30% -17% -13% -13% -2% -16% -13% 804% -79% 625.0 (82.6) 32.0 (38.0) 536.4 8.4 12.1 18.9

Peyto 6,629 468.7 86,500 92% 8,750 568.5 103,000 92% 11% 22% 10% 18% 13% 28% 13% 23% 467.8 (0.5) 92.0 (27.8) 531.4 6.7 11.7 17.8

PrairieSky * 6,900 60.5 16,983 59% 10,324 70.3 - 22,044 53% 5% 30% -13% -12% 109% 24% 38% 19% na na na na 36.0 na na na

Surge 13,686 16.4 16,350 17% 10,640 20.2 14,250 24% -9% -15% -28% 0% -23% 4% 110% -2% 73.5 17.9 4.6 (6.9) 89.0 6.2 10.7 17.4

TORC 13,522 11.7 15,480 13% 16,225 14.5 18,650 13% 38% 17% -5% 1% -13% 24% -9% 28% 47.1 16.4 8.6 (4.1) 86.6 5.6 8.6 13.3

Trilogy 10,067 107.6 30,000 64% 8,733 100.6 27,500 66% -20% -9% -15% -9% -21% -9% 19% 7% 105.2 (1.3) 45.8 (12.8) 136.9 7.7 10.1 15.0

Twin Butte 15,258 11.7 17,500 11% 14,250 10.5 17,000 11% -19% -7% -19% -4% -9% -7% -247% 55% 68.2 (0.7) 1.4 (7.8) 61.2 3.1 4.9 8.2

Vermilion 32,774 133.4 55,250 40% 31,597 188.4 65,000 50% 11% 15% 8% 15% 12% 18% 10% 20% 198.6 28.8 37.6 (18.1) 246.9 4.9 8.4 13.6

Whitecap 30,793 60.0 40,000 25% 30,739 56.2 44,000 23% 26% -2% 2% 6% 8% 0% 13% 1% 132.3 101.5 27.5 (11.6) 249.7 7.2 12.0 16.5

E&P Total/Average 618,593 2,568.7 1,055,873 33% 597,920 2,629.7 1,112,051 34% 6% -3% -4% 1% -2% 1% 45% 15% 5,103.4 319.8 743.0 (373.8) 5,794.4 6.0 9.6 15.0

Royalty Total/Average * 84.62 27,670 48% 17,073 90.8 32,213 43% na 12% na -13% na 6% na 5% na na na na 73.1 na na na

Netback Analysis ($/boe) - 2016E CFPS Sensitivity (2016E) 2016E Hedging Outflows vs. Inflows Analysis (2016E)

Oil Nat. Gas Outflows ($M) Inflows ($M)

Royalties

P+P Reserve Reconciliation (mmboe) - 2014A

2015E Production 2016E Production Production Growth

Gross Production Prod. Per Share (PPS) PPS + Dist. Reinvested PPS + Dist. + Debt Adj't

2016E Payout Ratios

Reserve Life Index (Years)

Notes: Per share cash flow sensitivities are based on 2014 estimates and include the impact of hedging activity. Reserve Life Index is calculated using estimated year-end 2014 reserves divided by estimated Q4/14 production (adjusted for 2015 acquisitions YTD). Basic payout ratio is defined as cash dividends divided by cash flow from operations. Total payout ratio is defined as cash dividends plus development capital expenditures divided by each company's cash flow from operations. Total payout ratio (including the DRIP) is defined as cash dividends plus development capital expenditures divided by each company's cash flow from operations plus proceeds from the company's dividend reinvestment program (DRIP). Sustainable payout ratio is defined as a theoretical payout ratio which would yield flat production and be financially self-sustaining (i.e., fund 100% of capex from cash flow while spending sufficient capital to replace 100% of annual production declines). CFPS: Cash flow per share; CF: Cash flow. R=Restricted. Source: Company reports; CIBC estimates.

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Exhibit 20. Dividend Paying E&Ps Base vs Forward Strip Pricing Assumptions


Base Pricing Assumptions

Bank Line 1-Yr.2016E 2017E Core Risked P/Core P/Risked Drawn (%) Target Expected Running

Company Price 2016E 2017E 2016E 2017E CDPS CDPS 2016E 2017E 2015A 2016E 2017E 2016E 2017E NAV ($) NAV ($) NAV NAV 2016E 2017E 2016E 2017E 2016E 2017E 2015A 2016E 2017E Current Price Return Current Annualized Yield

ARC $15.45 $2.00 $2.64 -7.6% 32.0% $1.20 $1.20 7.7x 5.8x 7.7x 7.3x 6.2x 7.8% 7.8% $7.53 $26.92 205% 57% 60% 45% 138% 103% 100% 86% 1.2x 1.4x 0.9x 0% $24.00 63% $0.10 $1.20 7.8%

Baytex $2.36 $1.88 $3.10 -27.3% 65.3% $0.00 $0.00 1.3x 0.8x 3.2x 2.9x 2.5x 0.0% 0.0% $8.23 $23.60 29% 10% 0% 0% 92% 61% 115% 61% 3.4x 4.2x 2.1x 17% $6.50 175% $0.00 $0.00 0.0%

Bonavista $1.13 $1.55 $2.01 -12.1% 29.1% $0.12 $0.12 0.7x 0.6x 3.1x 2.9x 2.2x 10.6% 10.6% $2.40 $9.26 47% 12% 7% 6% 73% 63% 112% 63% 2.9x 3.0x 1.9x 40% $3.00 176% $0.01 $0.12 10.6%

Bonterra $13.20 $3.26 $5.25 -8.9% 61.2% $1.20 $1.20 4.0x 2.5x 5.5x 4.4x 3.6x 9.1% 9.1% $13.06 $38.40 101% 34% 37% 23% 74% 52% 88% 52% 3.0x 3.0x 1.4x 79% $21.00 68% $0.10 $1.20 9.1%

Cardinal $6.46 $1.07 $2.33 -32.4% 118.2% $0.42 $0.42 6.0x 2.8x 5.8x 7.0x 3.1x 6.5% 6.5% $10.65 $12.26 61% 53% 38% 17% 73% 39% 69% 38% 0.4x 0.4x 0.5x 35% $13.00 108% $0.04 $0.42 6.5%

Crescent Point $13.28 $3.23 $4.44 -19.6% 37.4% $1.20 $1.20 4.1x 3.0x 4.6x 4.5x 4.2x 9.0% 9.0% $14.11 $34.57 94% 38% 37% 27% 98% 80% 119% 80% 2.1x 2.4x 1.6x 61% $23.00 82% $0.10 $1.20 9.0%

Enerplus $3.37 $1.76 $2.93 -26.5% 66.4% $0.36 $0.36 1.9x 1.2x 3.4x 3.3x 2.5x 10.7% 10.7% $7.38 $13.40 46% 25% 20% 12% 117% 79% 154% 79% 2.5x 3.0x 1.6x 14% $6.50 104% $0.03 $0.36 10.7%

Freehold * $9.62 $1.01 $1.30 -8.8% 28.8% $0.84 $0.84 8.7x 6.8x 14.6x 9.6x 7.4x 8.7% 8.7% $7.10 na 136% na 83% 65% 98% 80% 86% 70% 1.5x 1.3x 0.7x 58% $11.50 28% $0.14 $1.68 17.5%

Granite $6.72 $1.08 $1.84 -32.8% 71.1% $0.42 $0.60 6.2x 3.7x nm 7.0x 3.8x 6.3% 8.9% $4.63 $5.57 145% 121% 38% 32% 101% 63% 101% 63% 0.6x 1.4x 0.3x 25% $7.50 18% $0.04 $0.42 6.3%

Lightstream $0.23 $0.22 $0.71 -77.4% 228.3% $0.00 $0.00 1.0x 0.3x 4.7x 5.4x 5.7x 0.0% 0.0% $0.59 $1.70 38% 13% 0% 0% 209% 81% 71% 81% 8.1x 34.0x 10.2x 47% $0.30 33% $0.00 $0.00 0.0%

Northern Blizzard $3.25 $1.35 $1.92 -15.1% 42.0% $0.48 $0.48 2.4x 1.7x 3.0x 3.2x 2.3x 14.8% 14.8% $11.69 $15.03 28% 22% 35% 25% 100% 68% 80% 57% 2.2x 2.2x 0.9x 0% $7.25 138% $0.04 $0.48 14.8%

Pengrowth $0.78 $0.70 $0.68 -17.7% -3.3% $0.04 $0.04 1.1x 1.1x 3.6x 3.3x 3.8x 5.1% 5.1% $2.54 $4.17 31% 19% 6% 6% 45% 66% 82% 66% 3.8x 4.0x 3.8x 8% $1.50 97% $0.00 $0.04 5.1%

Penn West $0.86 $0.43 $0.99 -8.5% 128.5% $0.00 $0.00 2.0x 0.9x 4.1x 3.5x 3.8x 0.0% 0.0% $1.08 $5.27 79% 16% 0% 0% 150% 81% 83% 81% 8.0x 9.2x 3.8x 13% $1.00 16% $0.00 $0.00 0.0%

Peyto $26.61 $3.90 $5.33 13.0% 36.5% $1.32 $1.32 6.8x 5.0x 8.0x 7.0x 6.1x 5.0% 5.0% $9.53 $33.54 279% 79% 34% 25% 133% 101% 121% 101% 1.9x 2.0x 1.5x 54% $37.00 44% $0.11 $1.32 5.0%

PrairieSky * $19.92 $0.86 $1.09 -56.4% 25.8% $1.30 $1.30 23.1x 18.4x 23.5x 22.5x 17.9x 6.5% 6.5% $17.36 na 115% na 150% 120% 150% 120% 129% 103% -1.3x -0.9x -0.7x 0% $25.00 32% $0.11 $1.30 6.5%

Surge $1.62 $0.32 $0.59 -45.6% 87.2% $0.15 $0.15 5.1x 2.7x 3.4x 4.2x 3.5x 9.3% 9.3% $4.22 $5.02 38% 32% 48% 25% 119% 68% 120% 68% 1.2x 2.4x 1.0x 33% $3.00 94% $0.01 $0.15 9.3%

TORC $4.14 $0.81 $1.41 3.8% 74.2% $0.54 $0.54 5.1x 2.9x 7.1x 6.7x 3.7x 13.0% 13.0% $4.87 $6.99 85% 59% 66% 38% 133% 97% 108% 85% 1.7x 1.4x 1.1x 41% $6.50 70% $0.05 $0.54 13.0%

Trilogy $2.41 $0.92 $1.39 8.6% 50.5% $0.00 $0.00 2.6x 1.7x 5.0x 4.3x 3.6x 0.0% 0.0% $3.09 $11.17 78% 22% 0% 0% 85% 70% 83% 70% 5.2x 4.4x 2.5x 53% $5.50 128% $0.00 $0.00 0.0%

Twin Butte $0.08 $0.21 $0.43 -58.9% 104.6% $0.00 $0.00 0.4x 0.2x 1.5x 2.0x 1.6x 0.0% 0.0% $1.20 $1.33 7% 6% 0% 0% 113% 65% 101% 65% 1.5x 3.8x 1.5x 94% $0.10 25% $0.00 $0.00 0.0%

Vermilion $33.92 $4.16 $6.00 -8.8% 44.0% $2.58 $2.58 8.1x 5.7x 8.4x 6.8x 6.5x 7.6% 7.6% $46.70 $57.82 73% 59% 62% 43% 122% 99% 103% 80% 2.8x 2.9x 1.7x 64% $56.00 73% $0.22 $2.58 7.6%

Whitecap $6.71 $1.29 $1.81 -24.3% 40.5% $0.75 $0.75 5.2x 3.7x 5.1x 4.6x 4.7x 11.2% 11.2% $6.42 $15.84 105% 42% 58% 41% 97% 78% 82% 78% 1.7x 2.1x 1.3x 65% $14.50 127% $0.06 $0.75 11.2%

E&P Total/Average -21.0% 69.1% 3.8x 2.4x 4.8x 4.8x 3.9x 6.6% 6.8% 83% 38% 29% 19% 109% 74% 100% 71% 2.9x 4.6x 2.1x 39% 86% 6.6%

Royalty Total/Average * -

CIBC Oil and Gas Weekly Jan 18, 2016.pdf

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