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Chuyn 4KHNG HONG TI CHNH 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.9-2 Khng hong ti chnh l g! Khngho!ngt"ich#nh$!%ra&hic's(gi)n*o+n*,c-i.t nghi/0tr1ng*2nc)clu3ngth4ngtintr/nth5tr67ngt"i ch#nh, t8 *' l"0 cho c)c t69ng t)c t"i ch#nh t:ng 0+nh v" th5 tr67ng t"i ch#nh ng8ng ho+t *;ng. nt8c)c n6]c th5 tr67ng 0]i nHi. Eu;c tranh lu}n vG vi.c li.u ch#nh s)ch tiGn t. g=% ra -ong -'ng nh" Z cBn ti2K tJc *2n ng"% na%. 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.9-21 Gi> ch9ng #ho>n L #hng hong ti chnh GHHIPGHHJSource: Dow-Jones Industrial Average `klIAa. Alo-al minancial katas .glo-alpinancialdata.co0\inde$nta-s.KhKdaction odetailedinpoqido11bX. 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.9-22 C- ?:ng tn DEng L #hng hong ti chnh GHHIPGHHJ Source: Federal Reserve Bank op Pt. Mouis mrEk data-ases httKY\\research.stlouisped.org\pred2\categories\22.KHNG HONG TI CHNH S NHTNG NUN KINH TV CWI NXI 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.9-2L C>c :ng l5c c, cu:c #hng hong ti chnh - nh.ng nn #inh t% thY t?Z@ng [\i n3i ThRng*;ngl(ccacu;c&hngho!ngt"i ch#nht+inhzngnGn&inht2th5tr67ng0]i nHi*6Fctw0thI%g>ngnh6ZnhRngn6]c Kh)ttriUnnh6ngvfnc'0;ts>&h)c-i.t Wuan tr1ng. i &2 to)n l"0 su% %2u c)c ng=n h"ngv" &hi2n c)c ng=n h"ng Kh!i c,t gi!0 cho va% nh6ng &h4ng c' ch thU &h)c tha0 gia gi!i Wu%2t c)c vIn *G l(a ch1n *>i ng5ch v" ri ro *+o *@c. ? K2t thCc -_ng nH cho va% trong 0;t -i2n c> cho va% -Zi vw Wu% *5nh an to"n %2u &0 v" gi)0 s)t h+n ch2 chIK nh}n ri ro Wu) 0@c. ? PrinciKal-agent Kro-le0 as ell - Koerpul do0estic -usiness interests Kervert the pinancial li-eraliation Krocess. 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.9-30 /t,g' On'2Initi,tion o^ Rin,nci,l C?i4i4 $contOD( Pevere miscal I0-alances.? |hen govern0ents in e0erging 0ar&et countries cannot pinance their large piscal i0-alances, the% opten porce -an&s to Kurchase their de-ts8? |hen investors lose conpidence in the a-ilit% op the govern0ent to reKa% this de-t, the% ill unload the -onds hich causes their Krices to Klu00et. ? ^an&s that hold this de-t pace a huge decline in their net orth resulting in the decline op their lending and orsening op adverse selection and 0oral haard Kro-le0s 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.9-31 /t,g' On'2Initi,tion o^ Rin,nci,l C?i4i4 $contOD( ther additional pactors? ther pactors that Kla% a role in the pirst stage in crises are? A rise in interest rates pro0 events a-road? A decline in asset Krice that causes a deterioration in -an&s -alance sheets pro0 asset rite-dons? An increase in uncertaint% due to unsta-le Kolitical s%ste0s 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.9-32 /t,g' T_o2 Cu??'ncy C?i4i4 keterioration p ^an& ^alance Pheets