CHUONG10 daututangtruongvn.pdf

L Thu_Dynamics fund Banking University lc dch

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STEVE NISON

BIU K THUT HNH NN NHT BN


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PHN 2: THE RULE OF MULTIPLE TECHNICAL TECHNIQUES

Bn thn cc phng php k thut hnh nn l mt cng c trade hiu qu. Nhng n s tr nn chnh xc hn khi kt hp vi cc ch bo k thut phng Ty. l ni dung chnh ca phn 2. V d, nu mt belt-hold tng gi ct ln ngng h tr di hn, c 2 l do cho rng mt s tng gi sp xy ra. Ch bo hnh nn v ch bo phng Ty h tr ln nhau.

Phng php xem xt s b sung ca nhng ch bo k thut khc nhau c gi l Rule of multiple technical techniques, tm dch l s kt hp ca nhng ch bo k thut. L thuyt ny cho rng cng nhiu ch bo k thut cng a ra mt vng gi ging nhau th mc chnh xc ca d on cng cao.

Phn 2 ca cun sch ny ch yu ni v s kt hp ca cc ch bo, phn cn li s dng 2 v d ca phn tch k thut phng Ty kim tra li l thuyt trn. Chng 10 tp trung vo mt nhm cc ch bo hnh nn cung cp tn hiu r rng v mt s o chiu. Chng 11-17 kt hp biu hnh nn vi mt s ch bo k thut phng Ty bao gm ng xu hng (trendlines), ng MA, cc ch s khc. Trong mi chng ti s ni r cch dng candlesticks h tr cho cc phng tin phn tch k thut phng Ty. Phn m u t chng 11-17, ti s gii thiu s lc v k thut phng Ty. Sau , chng ta s nghin cu nhng v d c th xem bng cch no c th kt hp cc ch bo phng Ty vi candlesticks. Theo kinh nghim ca ti, ch bo phng Ty v candlesticks l mt s kt hp cc k c hiu qu.

Cc v d v s kt hp ca ch bo phng Ty v candlesticks

Phn ny nu ln rng nu kt hp cc ch bo k thut vi nhau c th gip ta d on c mc h tr v khng c s xy ra u. Nhng v d di y s dng k thut phng Ty, phn cn li s ng dng candlesticks.


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Hnh 11.1. Cui thng 10- 1989, gi vng xuyn qua ngng khng c trong mt xu hng gim tn ti 2 nm, khi n kt thc trn mc $380. Kt hp vi 1 mc khc vo nm 1989 l $357, y l du hiu tng gi. Sau , Financial News Network hi ti nhn nh nh th no v gi vng. Ti ni rng y l mt t iu chnh tng, n s dng li khong $425-$433. u nm 1990, gi vng chm nh $425, v th trng tr li xu th gim. Bng cch no m ti c th xc nh c vng $425-$433 l vng khng c mi trong khi gi vng hin ti ch l $380? Bng cch kt hp nhiu phng tin k thut. C 4 ch bo ch ra vng khng c $425- $433:

1. 50% retracement ca nh $520 trong nm 1987 v y $357 ca nm 1989 l $430.

2. Cc im 1 v 2 trong nm 1989, to thnh y i. Da vo y i ny, ti a ra mc $425. ( khong cch 1 y i c o bng khong cch gia 2 im y v im cao nht).

3. Cui nm 1988, gi cao nht l $433.


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4. ng nghip ca ti, John Gambino, ngi dng l thuyt sng Elliot cho rng gi vng ang bc sng th 4. Da vo , iu chnh tng ca gi vng khng th vt qu y ca sng tin th nht vo u nm 1988 l $425.

Cc ch bo phng Ty trn u ch ra ngng khng c gn vng gi $425-$433. Tht bi trong vic vt qua vng khng c ny, th trng bulls khng th chng t sc mnh. Khng lu sau , xu hng gim tr li.

Nu gi vt qua ngng khng c $433 th sao? Vy th ti phi thay i d on ca mnh v mt th trng tng trong di hn. l l do v sao k thut li c hiu qu. Lun lun c mt mc gi m ti nhn nh v th trng s b sai. Trong trng hp ny, nu gi vng kt thc mc trn $433, ti phi ngh n xu hng gim trong di hn. Chng ta nhn bit th trng bng cc hot ng ca gi. Nu hot ng ny ni rng kin ca ti l sai th ti s iu chnh theo th trng. Ti khng t tin ni rng th trng s thay i theo ti. Bi v th trng lun lun ng.

u thng 5, sau khi ng rt gi mnh, ti ngh gi ng c th tm thi bt ln

$.14 ( l y ca mt knh tng gi trong vng 1 nm biu hng tun, v cng l mc thp nht cui thng 2 u thng 3). Tuy nhin, tr khi gi ng c y ln trn vng


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$.1515- $.1520, ti tin rng gi ng hin ti ch l mt xu hng gim nht thi. iu chnh tng t mc $.1505 vo ngy 14 thng 5. Vy lm sao ti bit c vng khng c l $.1515 - $1520. C 4 ch bo nh sau:

1. y l ngng h tr c c test nhiu ln t u thng 3 n ht thng 4. Ti ngh rng mt khi ngng h tr mnh ny b ph v th n s tr thnh ngng khng c mnh.

2. ng MA 65 ngy gn chm mc $.1515. 3. Nhn vo nh ca vng A vo thng 1 v khong trng vng B vo thng 3,

chng ta c th thy tm quan trng ca mc $.1515. 4. Fibonacci 32% retracement t nh $.1627 (H) n y $.1444 (L) l $.1514. Mc

ny l ni ngng khng c u tin xut hin sau t bn tho.


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Chng 10: Kt hp cc mu hnh nn

Chng ny nghin cu s kt hp ca nhng mu hnh nn gp nhau ti mt vng gi c th to thnh mt im quan trng ca th trng.


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Trong hnh 10.1, cc ch bo hnh nn kt hp li v d on mt s iu chnh gi v

mt nhm nn sau bo hiu s kt thc ca t bn tho. u thng 6, mt hanging man theo sau bi mt du hiu gim gi khc l mt doji. Gi sau gim lin tc cho ti khi cc cy nn khc ch ra mt y quan trng. u tin l mt hammer. Ngy tip theo l engulfing tng gi. Mt vi ngy sau , c mt t bn tho nh nhng ngng h tr do hammer to ra vn c gi vng. t test th 2 to thnh mu hnh tweezers bottom.


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Hammer thng 9 trong hnh 10.2 ch ra mt t iu chnh tng. Cui thng 11, gi tri

phiu to nn 3 cy nn kt thc t iu chnh. l 1 hanging man, 1 doji v 1 shooting star nh du mt s chm dt hon ton.


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Hnh 10.3 minh ha mt cy nn c th cho nhiu tn hiu. u thng 4, mt cy nn

trng thn di theo sau bi mt thn nn ngn vi bng trn di. l hnh nh ca mt shooting star. Thn nn nh ny kt hp vi thn nn di trc to nn mu hnh harami. Cui cng, nh bng trn ca shooting star (gi cao nht trong ngy) cng khng qua c mc cao nht 1600 trong thng 2.

Hnh 10.4, trong mt vi tun, th trng to ra 1 tweezers bottom, 1 engulfing tng

gi v 1 hammer.


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Hnh 10.5. Na cui thng 7, mt lot cc mu hnh nn bo hiu gim gi gm c 1

doji star theo sau bi 3 hanging man (1, 2, 3). Gia hanging man 1 v 2 c 1 shooting star.


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Hnh 10.6 c mt cy nn a ra tn hiu gim gi. nh ca t iu chnh tng trong thng 12 c 1 hanging man chm ti, Hanging man ny cng l mt phn ca mu hnh evening star.

Hnh 10.7. T ngy 9 thng 5 n ngy 11 thng 5, mt lot thn nn bo hiu o

chiu nh trong vng $1.12. Thn nn trng di vo ngy 9 thng 5 c theo sau bi mt nn thn ngn. Cy nn th 2 ny l 1 hanging man, kt hp vi thn nn trng phin trc to thnh mu hnh harami. Ngy 11 thng 5, gi li mc $1.12 mt ln na. Tip sau l mt shooting star. 3 phin lin tip c gi cao nht bng nhau to nn mt nh ngn hn. Do trong 3 phin c 4 tn hiu gim gi: 1hanging man, 1 harami, 1 shooting star v 1 tweezers top. Th trng gim t nh ny. Mc $1.12 tr thnh mc khng c khi th trng khng th xuyn qua n trong t iu chnh gia thng 6. Cn mt l do na mc $1.12 tr thnh 1 mc quan trng khi n b ph v vo ngy 28 thng 6, n chuyn thnh mc h tr. Quan st ngi sao doji xut hin sau thn nn trng di, ta thy y l mt mu hnh o chiu nh. C ngha l xu hng chnh l xu hng tng kt thc. Hai ngy sau doji, th trng dng nh khng cn sc, c 2 thn nn en ngay sau . Hy nh


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n mc khng c ngy 9 thng 5 n 11 thng 5. Mc thp nht ca 2 thn nn en sau , ngy 2 v 3 thng 7, ch ra rng ngng khng c c chnh l ngng h tr mi. Th trng khng th gim hn c na. Cho n khi ngng h tr b ph v, s quay li ca th trng tng gi ngn hn bt u t 26 thng 6 vn s tip tc. Trong trng hp ny, s kt hp ca cc nn ti nh 9-11 thng 5 c th pht huy hiu qu nh mt ngng h tr quan trng 1 ln na trong vi thng sau .

Hnh 10.8 c mt lot nn ch ra du hiu to nh gia nm 1987. C th l: trong

vng 1 thng, c 1 hanging man, 1 doji, 1 dark-cloud cover. Sau dark-cloud cover, th trng selloff, xut hin 1 window. Window ny tr thnh mc khng c trong mt t iu chnh


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tng nh trc khi tip tc gim. t bn tho ny kt thc vi 1 tweezers bottom v 1 belt- hold tng gi ( mc d nn trng c bng di nhng vn c th xem n l mt belt- hold tng gi).

Chng 11: Candlesticks v ng xu hng (trendlines) Chng ny ni v s kt hp gia k thut hnh nn v ng xu hng, ph v

ng xu hng, cc vng h tr , khng c c. C nhiu cch xc nh mt xu hng tng hay gim. Cch c bn nht m cc nh

phn tch k thut dng l v ng xu hng. ng h tr, khng c v candlesticks

Hnh 11.1 cho ta hnh nh ca mt ng h tr ang i ln. N c v bng cch

ni t nht 2 y ca cc t iu chnh gim. ng ny ch ra rng ngi mua ang chim u th so vi ngi bn v cu ang ngy cng tng ln. l tn hiu ca mt th trng tng gi.

Hnh 11.2 l hnh nh ca mt ng khng c hng i xung. ng ny l ng thng ni t nht 2 nh ca cc t iu chnh tng. Lc ny ngi bn ang chim u th, bng chng l h sn sng bn vi mc gi thp hn. l tn hiu cho th trng gim gi.

Mc hiu qu ca ng khng c v h tr ty thuc vo s ln m ng ny c test thnh cng, khi lng trong mi t test v khong thi gian ng ny c hiu lc.


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Hnh 11.3, tuy khng c ch bo hnh nn no, nhng nu xem biu ny bng k

thut phng Ty, ta c th nhn ra mu hnh head and shoulders (u v hai vai).


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Hnh 11.4. y c to ra trong cui thng 3 (gn $173) c test thnh cng

trong cc phin cui thng 4. t test ny to ra mt t tng gi. C th, trong 3 phin t 20 n 22 thng 4, 3 cy nn to thnh mu hnh morning star.


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Hnh 11.5 cung cp nhng thng tin ng gi v vic s dng ng xu hng v cc

ch bo candlesticks. 1. ng h tr 1 (cui thng 1, u thng 2) ch ra rng cc mc gi thp nht trong

2 phin 29 v 31 thng 1 l 2 im u tin ca ng ny. ng ny c test ln th 3 vo ngy 7 thng 2 bng mt hammer. S kt hp ca hai yu t ny to nn mt tn hiu o chiu y. i vi nhng ngi mua ti vng ny, y ca hammer s l mc dng l (stop loss) v thot ra khi th trng.

2. ng h tr 2 (gia thng 1- u thng 3) quan trng hn ng th nht v n tn ti lu hn . Ngy 2 thng 3, ng ny c test ln th 3 bi mt hammer. Bi v xu hng chnh l tng nn hammer v t test thnh cng ngng h tr cho tn hiu mua vo. C th t stop loss ngay di y ca hammer hoc di ng h tr 2. S ph v ng h tr ny s l mt cnh bo rng xu hng tng b b gy. Harami a ra nhng nghi ng rng th trng s gp rc ri. V d ny cho thy tm quan trng ca stop (im dng). Nh ni trn, c nhiu l do tin rng th trng ang i ln cao hn na khi hammer test ng h tr ln th 2. Nhng th trng gim tr li. Bn nn t tin khi giao dch, nhng vn phi quan tm n nhng nghi ng ca mnh. Mt trong s nhng iu quan trng


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nht khi kinh doanh l qun l ri ro. Vic t stop cng ging nh vic qun l ri ro.

Hnh 11.6 c 2 dark- cloud cover 1 v 2 cung cp 1 ng khng c. Dark- cloud

cover 3 gn chm ti ng ny, v n xc nhn y chnh l vng m ti cung tng i mnh.


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Hnh 11.7. cho thy c mt t iu chnh tng (khng c trong hnh) kt thc ti A.

N to ra mt vng khng c mc $.6419. Mt doji chn di (long- legged doji) xut hin ti B. Doji ny cng gn mc khng c to ra ti A. y l mt l do cn trng. nh A v B l 2 nh u tin ca ng khng c. Ti C c 1 doji chn di (ging B) gn ng khng c. Sau th trng i xung. Ti D, mt thn nn trng vi bng trn di l mt shooting star. N tht bi ti ng khng c. Thn nn en pha sau thn nn trng va ri to ra mu hnh engulfing gim gi.


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Hnh 11.8 c 2 mu hnh engulfing. Mu hnh 1 cung cp nhng tn hiu cn trng

nn cho ngi mua. Mt vi tun sau , engulfing gim gi th 2 xut hin. nh ca engulfing ny cng tht bi ti ng khng c.


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Hnh 11.9 minh ha hnh nh mt ng khng c hng i ln. l ng xu hng kt hp nhiu nh mi. Mc d khng ph bin nh ng khng c hng xung trong hnh 11.1, nhng n c th l mt cng c hiu qu ca nhng ngi mua. Khi th trng chm ti ng ny ln na, ngi mua nn tnh ton trc phng nhng thay i bt li. H c th cht li mt phn, thay i stop hay hoc bn ra ht. Mc d nhng thay i ch l tm thi (do xu hng chnh l tng), s tht bi ti ng ny c th l mt tn hiu sm v mang tnh thm d cho mt xu hng gim tip theo.

Hnh 11.10 l hnh nh ca ng h tr hng xung. y cng l mt dng t gp nhng li c th pht huy tc dng vi ngi bn. C th, ng h tr hng xung ch ra mt xu th gim. Nhng khi th trng gi ng ny nh mt mc h tr th ngi bn nn chun b cho s bt gi.

Nhn hnh 11.11, u tin ta ch n ng h tr hng xung A, tng t nh

trong hnh 11.10. Ni 2 im L1, L2, ta c ng h tr ny. Thn nn L3 hu nh chm ng ny trc khi gi vt ln li. iu ny chng t hiu lc ca ng h tr. Mc gi


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thp ti L4 khng ch l t test thnh cng ng ny m n cn to ra mu hnh engulfing tng gi. y khng phi l lc mua bi v xu hng chnh l gim. Trong trng hp ny L4 chnh l im bt u ca mt t tng gi, kt thc bng mt doji chn di ( ng hn l mt ricksaw man) v hanging man vi thng sau . Ch mu hnh piercing tng gi trong 2 ngy 19, 20 thng 10.

Tip theo, hy nhn vo ng khng c hng ln nh trong hnh 11.11. Hot ng gi t 15 thng 1 to ra 1 lot nh. Da vo (v c ng h tr), ta c th thy rng gi ang tng. S tht bi vo ngy 6 thng 3 ti ng khng c hng ln cho nhng ngi mua tn hiu hnh ng. Ch rng t test ng khng c ln th 3 l 1 shooting star vi bng trn rt di v thn ngn. 3 ngy sau shooting star l hanging man. Kt hp cc yu t (th trng quay li vng khng c, shooting star v hanging man), ta c tn hiu r rng v mt th trng ny s sm iu chnh.

Springs v upthrusts Hu nh, trong phn ln thi gian, th trng khng tn ti trong mt xu hng r

rng m thng l dao ng trong di hp hay ni cch khc, th trng sideways. Khi th trng khng phi ang tng m cng khng phi ang gim. Ting Nht gi trng thi yn bnh, tnh lng l wa. Ti ngh th trng ang theo xu hng nm ngang cng l ang trong trng thi wa. Ngi ta c chng rng th trng khng c xu hng chim khong 70%. V vy chng ta cn phi dng cc cng c phn tch k thut bit c im vo th trng hp l. Trong trng hp ny, c mt s cng c rt hiu qu. Chng c gi l springs v upthrust da trn nhng khi nim c Richard Wyckoff pht trin vo u th k 20.

Nh ni trn, khi th trng trong trng thi wa, vic mua bn khng din ra si ni, theo xu hng nm ngang. i khi, gi c th tng hoc gim qua mc cao nht hoc thp nht. Khi , c hi mua bn xut hin. C th, nu gi ph v mc khng c hay h tr, chnh l lc trade. Lc ny, c mt du hiu mnh l th trng s quay li vng giao dch c.


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Hnh 11.12, ngng khng c c gi vng. Gi sau quay tr li di cc nh b ph v. Trong trng hp ny, bn nn bn ra. Kiu ph v gi ny gi l upthrust. Nu upthrust gp 1 ch bo hnh nn gim gi, l lc nn bn.

Ngc li vi upthrust l spring (hnh 11.13). Spring xut hin khi gi i qua cc y ri quay v bn trn ng h tr. Ni cch khc, y mi khng c gi. Nn mua vo nu gi ln cao hn cc y c.

Hnh 11.14 l mt v d hay v upthrust kt hp vi candlesticks. Ngy A nh du gi

bt u dch chuyn theo xu hng nm ngang v 1 ngng khng c ( ch hanging man ngy trc cho tn hiu kt thc xu hng tng). 2 im L1, L2 xc nh y ca vng


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giao dch. C upthrust vo ngy B. nh trc , ti A, b ph v nhng nh mi li khng c gi. Tht bi ny l mt tn hiu gim gi. Hn na, trc ngy B l mt shooting star. i khi shooting star khng cho tn hiu gim, nhng hanging man xut hin trong ngy B. Vi mt upthrust ti B chng ta bit c y ca di sideways ny, chnh l y to bi L1, L2.

Hnh 11.15 cho thy vo ngy 1 thng 5, nh mi c thit lp cho CRB chm

ngng 248.44. Ngy 10 thng 5, th trng bulls c gng y mc ny ln 25ticks nhng vn khng th gi nh mi ny. S tht bi ny to thnh upthrust. Ngy 10 thng 5 cng l mt shooting star. N bo hiu kt thc mt xu hng tng ngn hn.

Hnh 11.16. Gi ngy 5 thng 4 vt qua nh ca u thng 3, khong $5.40. Tuy

nhin th trng tng khng th gi li nh mi. l upthrust. Hanging man trong phin sau cng xc nhn tn hiu gim gi ca upthrust ny.


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Hnh 11.17, trong thng 7 nm 1987, CRB to y bng mu hnh harami gn mc

220. y ny c test thnh cng bi mt thn nn trng di ngay tun sau. Trong qu 3 ca nm 1987, mc 220 tm thi b ph v bng mt thn nn trng di l belt-hold tng gi. Th trng nhanh chng bt ln li, to ra mt hammer v mt spring. Mc gi ti spring test li nh trc , gn 235.

Hnh 11.18. y u thng 1 b xuyn qua vo cui thng 2. Ngy ca spring cng l mt hammer. Cc tn hiu tng gi ny cung cp cho cc nh phn tch k thut v s quay li mt nh cao hn ca vng giao dch thng 1 v 2. t iu chnh tng ny gn chm mc $78 vi 1 evening doji star.


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Hnh 11.19 ch ra sau mt mu hnh harami, th trng xung dc. N kt thc bi mt hammer 1. Hammer ny l mt t test thnh cng ngng h tr trc $.50. Mt t tng nh tr li ti hammer 2. Vi hammer ny th trng vt qua y ca thng 6. Nhng th trng bears khng th duy tr c y ny. Vy mt spring, thm vo l mt hammer, 1 tweezers bottom cho tn hiu tng gi.


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Hnh 11.20. Trong sut tun bt u t 12 thng 3, gi chm y $5.96 to thnh mt engulfing tng gi. Th trng bt u iu chnh. Ngy 3 thng 4, gi ph v mc ny v to y mi. Spring c hnh thnh v y ny khng gi c lu. Ngoi ra, y trong phin cn to ra engulfing tng gi.

V sao spring v upthrust li pht huy tc dng nh vy? tr li, ti lin h ti cu tr li ca Napoleon khi ng ta c hi rng ng thch i qun no nht, l i qun chin thng. Nu coi th trng l mt trn chin m 2 i qun l bulls v bears. Vng m h ang tranh ginh chnh l vng gi sideway. Bears phi gi ng khng c cn bulls phi gi ng h tr. Lc s c mt scouting parties ca nhng nh u t ln, t chc thng mi, k c c nhn gim st 2 bn. V d, bulls c gng y gi ln qua vng khng c. Khi , ta phi xem cc ng thi ca bears. Nu scouting parties tng gi c th ng qun trong vng ca i phng (gn trn ngng khng c trong vng vi ngy), khi nu nhng i qun bulls mi cng tham gia th th trng s dch chuyn ln cao hn. Nu cuc tin cng c duy tr ( th mc khng c c s thnh mc h tr mi), i qun


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bulls nm quyn kim sot th trng. V d v scouting parties tng gi c th hin trong hnh 11.21.

Cui thng 5, nh $3.54 c to. Rt nhiu scouting parties tng gi ang c gng vt qua vng $3.54. Bulls thnh cng khi y gi ln mc $3.54 trong phin ngy 4 thng 4. Bulls khng th tin cao hn vo vng t ca bears. Bulls b nh bi, quay tr li y ca vng giao dch $3.54. Tn hiu m candlesticks cung cp ni ln rng bears vn cn ang nm gi th trng l mt engulfing gim gi. u thng 6, shooting star ngy 12,13 thng 6 khng thay i c g. Sau , mt scouting parties tng gi xut hin u thng 4. Tht bi khi khng gi c v tr pha trn nh gia thng 3, bulls b y li. Kt qu l mt t test li vng y cui thng 3. S tht bi ny c 1 shooting star xc nhn.


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L thuyt i cc Ngi Nht c cu: A red lacquer dish needs no decoration, tm hiu l mt chic

da sn mi th khng cn trang tr g thm. T tng v v p n thun cng chnh l ct li ca l thuyt k thut m ti thng s dng vi biu hnh nn. n gin nhng rt hiu qu - mc h tr c s l mc khng c mi v ngc li. Ti gi y l the change of polarity principle (l thuyt i cc). Hiu qu ca ng ny ty thuc vo:

1. S ln ngng khng c/ h tr c c test. 2. Khi lng trong mi t test. y cng chnh l l thuyt m trong bt c cun sch v phn tch k thut no cng ni n. bit c tnh u vit ca l thuyt ny, hy xem nhng v d khc nhau trong nhng thi im khc nhau.


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Hnh 11.24. 4 trng hp ng khng c c thnh ng h tr mi.


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Hnh 11.25. im gi thp nht ca ng Yn cui nm 1987 v gia nm 1988 to ra mt vng khng c quan trng trong c nm 1989.

Hnh 11.26. Ngng khng c c gn 27,000 trong nm 1987, khi b ph v, tr thnh

mt ngng h tr quan trng. Chng ta thy quy lut ny cc v d trc trong biu daily, weekly v

monthly, by gi hy xem trong biu intra-day.


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Hnh 11.27. T u n gia thng 7, ngng khng c mc $.72. Ngy 23 thng 7,

ngng ny b xuyn thng, ngay lp tc ngng $.72 tr thnh ngng h tr. nh $.7290 ca ngy 24, 25 b ph v, n cng thnh ngng h tr.


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Hnh 11.28.Cui nm 1989, u nm 1990, c mt t iu chnh. Na u nm 1990,

th trng trong di hp vi ngng h tr l gn mc $1.85. Khi ngng ny b ph v vo thng 6 nm 1990, ngng h tr tip theo l bao nhiu? Gi tng t $1.25 n $2.05 nn kh c th xc nh c ngng h tr chnh xc cho t iu chnh cui 1989, u 1990. Tuy nhin, khi mc $1.85 b ph, ngng h tr c mong i l s gn $1.65. C 2 l do ti chn mc ny. Mt l, 50% retracement ca t iu chnh $.80 trc l gn $1.65. Hai l, ngng khng c c vng A, gn $1.65. Nh vy y c th l ngng h tr mi. Tht vy, th trng bn tho trong vng vi ngy sau v dng mc $1.66.

Trong bt k biu no, daily, weekly, monthly, hay k c lu hn th bn cng c th thy c ng dng ca l thuyt ny. Ti sao n n gin m li hot ng hiu qu nh vy? Ta bit, mc tiu ca phn tch k thut l o xc cm v hnh ng ca nhng nh u c v u t. V vy, cng c o lng cng tt th hiu qu n mang li cng cao. L thuyt ny hot ng c hiu qu l v n da trn l thuyt tm l sound trading. L thuyt tm l ny nghin cu cch m mi ngi s phn ng khi th trng i ngc li v th ca h ang c, hoc khi h tin rng h b qua mt bin ng ln ca th trng. Mc gi


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no l quan trng nht trn biu ? C phi l im to nn cc bin c, hay l cc y? Hay l mc ng ca ca ngy hm qua? Khng phi. Mc gi quan trng nht trn bt c biu no chnh l im m bn tham gia th trng (enter point). Mi ngi ai cng c bit ch n mc gi m ti h bn hay mua. Do , cng nhiu giao dch c thc hin ti mt mc gi th cng c nhiu ngi quan tm n mc gi . Nh vy iu ny lin quan n vic ngng h tr c thnh ngng khng c mi, v ngc li.

Hy nhn hnh 11.29 c cu tr li.

Cui thng 12, mt t bn tho mnh kt thc ti $5.33 (A). Trong mt t test mc

ny, c t nht 3 nhm nh u t s cn nhc vic mua vo: Nhm 1 l nhng ngi ang i th trng n nh li sau t bn tho trc v

nhng ai ngh rng ngng h tr l $5.33 (y ti A vo ngy 28 thng 12). Mt vi ngy sau , t test thnh cng ti B c th thu ht c nhng ngi mua mi.

Nhm 2 gm nhng ngi trc y mua, nhng bn ra trong t selloff cui thng 12. Trong t iu chnh t B n B1 vo gia thng 1, mt vi ngi mua trc thot khi th trng cho rng nhn nh ca h v th trng bulls l chnh xc, ch l h xc

VienKhongHighlight


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nh sai thi im bn m thi. By gi chnh l lc mua vo. H mun thanh minh cho nhn nh ca mnh. H ang ch th trng hi phc ti C mua vo li.

Nhm 3 l nhng ngi mua ti A v B. H cng nhn thy t iu chnh t B n B1 v mun mua thm nu c mt mc gi hp l. Ti C, h c gi tt v th trng ang mc h tr. V vy, c nhiu ngi cng mua ti C. Ti D, h li tip tc mua vo.

Sau , nhng ngi mua gp rc ri. Vo thng 2, gi qua vng h tr A,B,C v D. Bt c ai mua ngng h tr u ang thua l. H mun thot khi th trng vi t tn tht nht. Nhng ngi ny s thot khi v th mua ca h. Do , nhng ngi mua A, B, C v D by gi l nhng ngi bn. l v sao ngng h tr c thnh ngng khng c mi. Ngc li ta cng c th gii thch c v sao ngng khng c c li thnh ngng h tr mi.

Nhng ng s n gin ca l thuyt ny nh la bn. N ch hot ng tt khi kt hp vi cc ch bo hnh nn. V d, vng E c 1 doji sau 1 thn nn trng di bo hiu rc ri. Ch bo hnh nn kt hp vi ng khng c xc nhn iu . Trng hp tng t xy ra ti F.

Hnh 11.30, nh A v B to thnh ngng h tr cui nm 1986 v nm 1989. ng

h tr ny c test 2 ln vi 2 hammer.


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Hnh 11.31, trong thng 9, u thng 10, ti vng A v B, th trng duy tr mc h tr

$1,230. Th trng xung di mc vo ngy 9 thng 10, ngay lp tc ng ny tr thnh ngng khng c. Sau ln tht bi u tin ngng khng c, ti C, gi gim cho ti khi c mu hnh engulfing tng gi. Mt t iu chnh nh sau , mt ln na xuyn qua ngng khng c $1,230. Hn na, cn c 1 dark-cloud cover.


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Chng 12: Candlesticks v cc mc retracement Th trng khng phi lc no cng tng hay gim lin tc m n thng iu chnh

trc khi quay tr li xu hng chnh. Mt vi mc retracement thng dng nh 50%, Fibinacci 38,2%, 68,1%. Fibonacci l mt nh ton hc th k 13. ng xy dng mt dy nhng con s m nu chia nhng con s ny cho so ng lin trc hay lin sau n, ta c cc t s Fibonacci, gm c 61,8%, 38,2% (nghch o l 1,618 v 2,618). Mc 50% cng thng dng v n cng c s dng bi nhng ngi dng Gann, l thuyt sng Elliot hay l l thuyt Dow.

Hnh 12.3. Cc retracement c th gip phn on vng khng c trong mt th trng

gim.50% retracement ca gi vng trong vng 1 nm tr thnh mc khng c. Quan st 3 trng hp m ng 50% retracement kt hp vi candlesticks cung cp mt tn hiu o chiu nh.

Retracement 1. nh ti A vo cui nm 1987 ($502) to ra bi mt engulfing gim gi. t bn tho bt u cui nm 1987, kt thc vi mu hnh piercing tng gi ti B mc $425. Da vo 50% retracement ca t bn tho ny, t A n B, mc khng c c th xy


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ra $464.Vy ngng khng c c xc nh l $464 v cn thm s xc nhn bng mt ch bo gim gi ca candlesticks. Mt engulfing xut hin ti C, ti gi t $469, sai lch $5. Th trng tip tc gim xung.

Retracement 2. t bn tho bt u t C kt thc vi mu hnh morning star ti D. 50% retracement t C $469 n D $492 cho ta vng khng c $430. Ti mc mt ch bo hnh nn s xut hin. Gi vng chm vng E $433. Trong sut thi gian ny (tun t 28 thng 11 n 5 thng 12) ti E, gi vng dch chuyn $.50, xut hin mu hnh engulfing gim gi. Mt t gim gi khc bt u ti E.

Retracement 3. T nh E ti y F nm 1989 ($357), gi rt $76. Mt iu th v l trong cc t bn tho A-B, C-D, E-F, gi u gim xp x $77. Khng c ch bo hnh nn no xc nhn y vo ngy 5 thng 6. t test y ny ln th hai din ra vo thng 9 khi gi vng xuyn qua mc ny. V sao? V cui nm 1989, gi vng vt qua ngng khng c ca 2 nm. Thm vo , vng to ra 1 y vng chc vo nm 1989 bng y i $357. Ta phi quan st mc 50% retracement ca nhng vng ln hn, ngha l 50% retracement ca ton b cc ln gim gi t 1987 (nh A) cho ti 1989 (y F). N cung cp mt ngng khng c $430. Gn mc ny, $425 trong tun 20 thng 11 ti vng G, th trng cho tn hiu cnh bo rng xu hng tng ang gp rc ri. Du hiu l mt harami, mt phn ca mu hnh ny l hanging man. Mt vi tun sau , tun 22 thng 1, nh ca t dch chuyn ny chm $425. Hot ng gi to ra mt hanging man v gi vng gim t .

Hnh 12.4. S kt hp gia tweezers bottom v harami mc $18.85 (A) l im khi u ca t iu chnh tng $3.50. t iu chnh ny kt thc ti $22.15 (B) vi mu hnh engulfing gim gi. 50% retracement ca vng A-B to thnh ngng khng c $20.36. Ti vng C, c mt piercing tng gi mc $20.15. Th trng sau c mt t iu chnh nh t C. t iu chnh ny dng li ti D khi c dark-cloud cover. nh ca D $21.25 nm trong khong 10 ticks ca mc 50% retracement ca xu hng gim trc B-C.


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Hnh 12.5. Ta thy 61,8% retracement ca t iu chnh A-B l $5.97. Mc gi ny rt gn vi ngng khng c cui thng 1, u thng 2 l $5.95. Mc khng c c thnh mc h tr mi. Khi gi tr li mc ny, ngy 2 v 3 thng 4, mc $5.97 c gi lm ngng h tr. Nhng phin ny to thnh mu hnh harami nh u xu hng gim trc chm dt. Sau , ngng ny c test li mt ln na vo gia thng 4 v th trng tng cao.


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Hnh 12.6a. T y L thng 7 n nh H trong thng 10, gi du th c mt t iu chnh $21.70. Mc 50% retracement ca t iu chnh ny l $29.05. V vy, da trn l thuyt mc 50% retracement ca t iu chnh tng l ngng h tr nn ta i mt ch bo tng gi t candlesticks gn vng $29.05. Trong t bn tho t nh ca thng 10, 23 thng 10, sau khi gi chm y $29.30. Mt hammer xut hin trong biu daily. Th trng iu chnh $5. Trong biu intra-day (hnh 12.6), hot ng gi trong nhng gi u tin to ra hammer. Trong biu daily v intra-day u c nhng hammer. Trng hp ny rt him v rt c ngha. Xem biu intra-day t iu chnh bt u t hammer v kt thc khi mt hanging man xut hin vo ngy 26 thng 10.


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Chng 13: Candlesticks v Moving Averages (MA) MA l mt trong nhng cng c phn tch k thut s dng lu i nht v ph bin

nht. N l mt cng c theo sau xu hng nn nh n m cc nh phn tch c th bit c xu hng chnh. N hot ng tt nht trong mt th trng c xu hng r rng. Tuy nhin, do MA l mt ch bo c tr nn n phn nh xu hng khi xu hng din ra.

T moving trong moving average c dng rt ng, bi v khi mt s liu mi nht c cng thm vo MA, th s liu c nht s b loi b. Do , ng MA lun lun ng bi v n lun c nhng s liu mi.

SMA l ng MA c bn nht. N l trung bnh cng ca gi trong mt s ngy nht nh.Gi s nu ta tnh MA 5 ngy ca gi vng, nh vy, gi trong mt ngy gp 1/5 tng gi tr MA. Cn vi MA 9 ngy th mi ngy chim 1/9 tng gi tr MA. Nh vy MA trong thi gian cng lu th nh hng ca gi n l tng ngy cng t. MA c chu k ngn th n cng gn vi gi v n cng nhy cm hn vi hot ng gi hin ti.

MA c s dng nhiu l MA 4,9,8 ngy cho nh u c, 13,26,40 tun i vi nh u t di hn. MA 13,40 tun rt thng dng Nht. di ca chu k MA ty thuc vo ngi s dng l nh u t ngn hn hay di hn.

Ngoi chu k, cc nh phn tch cn da vo loi gi c dng tnh. Loi c dng nhiu nht l gi ng ca. Tuy nhin, MA ca gi cao nht, thp nht, trung bnh ca gi cao nht v thp nht vn c s dng. i khi l MA ca MA.

EMA l ng trung bnh m. N gim dn mc nh hng ca gi c v tng dn mc nh hng ca gi mi, mc d n cng s dng tt c cc gi trc y.

Mt trong nhng EMA c s dng nhiu nht l MACD. N gm 2 ng. ng th nht l chnh lch gia 2 ng MA 12 ngy v 26 ngy. ng th 2 c tnh bng EMA ca ng th nht trong 9 chu k. ng th 2 gi l ng tn hiu. Xem thm trong v d 13.7 v 13.8.

Cch s dng MA, ty theo nhng kiu trade khc nhau v nhng trng phi khc nhau. y l nhng cch chung nht:

1. So snh gi v cc ng MA nh l mt ch bo xu hng. V d, mt tn hiu tt cho th trng tng trong ngn hn l gi trn ng MA 65 ngy. Trong mt xu hng tng di hn, gi cao hn MA 40 tun.


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2. S dng MA nh l ngng khng c, h tr. Gi ng ca trn mt ng MA c th cho tn hiu tng gi, gi ng ca thp hn MA c th l mt tn hiu gim gi.

3. Quan st MA band. Di bng ny c xc nh bng mt t l % nht nh trn di ng MA, hot ng nh mt ngng h tr hay khng c.

4. Quan st dc ca MA. V d, nu MA i xung sau mt t tng, y c th l mt tn hiu gim gi. V ng xu hng trn MA l mt cch n gin theo di dc.

5. S dng 2 ng MA cng lc. Phn ny s c ni k hn trong phn sau ca chng ny.

Cc v d sau y s dng nhiu ng MA khc nhau. ng MA cn c kt hp vi cc t s Fibonacci. Cch s dng MA khng quan trng bng kt hp MA vi candlesticks dng.


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Hnh 13.1. MA 65 ngy to ra mt ng h tr ti vng 1, 2, 3. Ngoi vic MA xc nh cc im ny, ta cn thy 1 engulfing tng gi vng 1, hammer v harami vng 2, hammer khc vng 3.

Hnh 13.2. S kt hp ca cc ch bo k thut vo ngy 2,3 thng 4 bo hiu rc ri. 1. u thng 3, gi ph v ng MA 65 ngy. Lc ny MA tr thnh ng khng

c. 2. 2 thn nn ngy 2,3 thng 4 to thnh dark-cloud cover. y cng l mu hnh tht

bi ti vng khng c. 3. Cy nn ngy 3 thng 4 khng ch l mt dark-cloud cover v tht bi ti MA m

cn nm trong 7 ticks ca mc 50% retracement ca vng gim gi A-B.


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Hnh 13.3. t test ng h tr MA 65 cui thng 2 vi 1 hammer. Th trng test

li ln na vi ngy sau to thnh tweezers bottom.

Dual MA (2 ng MA) C nhiu cch s dng 2 ng MA. Trong c 1 cch l dng n xc nh

vng overbought/ oversold. Ch s ny c tnh bng cch ly MA di hn-MA ngn hn. Kt qu c th l ln hn hoc nh hn 0. Nu nh hn 0 th MA di hn nh hn MA ngn hn v ngc li. Lm nh vy chng ta c th so snh momentum ngn hn vi momentum di hn. Bi v, nh ni trn, MA c chu k cng ngn th n cng gn vi hot ng gi hin ti. Nu MA ngn hn cch xa (trn hay di) MA di hn th th trng overbought (oversold). Mt cch khc l xem MA ngn hn v MA di hn ct nhau. Nu MA ngn hn ct MA di hn, c th xu hng s thay i. V d MA ngn hn ct ln MA di hn, l du hiu tng gi. Nht, ngi ta gi im ct ny l golden cross (im ct vng). Do vy


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nu MA 3 ngy ct ln MA 9 ngy s to ra golden cross. Ngc li l dead cross (im ct en) cho tn hiu gim gi khi MA ngn hn ct xung MA di hn.

Vi ch bo overbought/ oversold trong ngn hn, cc nh phn tch thng dng gi

ng ca cho ng MA 65 ngy (hnh 13.4). V d, MA 5 ngy ca gi ng l $1.10 v gi ng ca hm nay l $1.14. ng b mua qu mc $.04. Trong v d ny, ng thng trong th bn di c tnh bng cch ly MA 5 ngy tr i gi ng ca hin ti. Ta c th thy 2 ng MA t xp x 400 im ($.04), th trng overbought. c bit l c s xc nhn ca candlesticks. Trong giai on 1, vng overbought c ch bo hnh nn l 1 harami, giai on 2 c 1 harami khc, giai on 3 th doji xut hin, giai on 4 li l 1 harami. Th trng thot khi tnh trng overbought c th bng mt t bn tho hay trong tnh trng sideways. Trong v d ny, sau giai on 1, 3, th trng sideways, trong khi vi giai on 2, 4, th trng li bn tho. Th trng overbought c duy tr cho ti khi nhng ngi mua bt u cht li. N li chuyn thnh th trng oversold.

2 ng MA c th nm chung trong mt biu gi. MA ngn hn ct ln MA di hn to golden cross v l mt tn hiu tng gi.


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Hnh 13.5 c 1 golden cross v mu hnh frying pan bottom. Mu hnh ny kt thc

bng 1 window ngy 2 thng 7. Lc ny window thnh ngng h tr na u thng 7 v MA l ngng h tr ca t iu chnh.

Chnh lch gia 2 ng MA to ra phn k. Khi gi tng, MA ngn hn s tng ln so vi MA di hn. C ngha l khong cch gia 2 ng MA rng ra. Nu gi tng nhng khong cch gia 2 ng hp li. iu ny cho thy t tng gi sp kt thc.


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Hnh 13.6. Trong giai on 1 v 2, gi tng ln to mt khong rng gia 2 ng

MA. Do MA ngn hn chuyn ng nhanh hn MA di hn nn n cho bo hiu xu hng tng vn tip tc. Giai on 3, th trng gp kh khn. t iu chnh $.50 bt u ngy 23 thng 2 lm cho khong cch gia 2 ng MA hp li. N phn nh s yu i ca momentum ngn hn. Thm vo cn c 1 dark-cloud cover, gi chuyn qua giai on gim.

Trong biu cn th hin 2 MA ct nhau. Khi th nm di ng 0, MA ngn hn di MA di hn. Khi th trn ng 0 th ngc li. Do khi 2 ng ny nm di 0 to ra dead cross, ngc li l golden cross.

Golden cross ti A. Mt vi ngy trc l mt inverted hammer. Ti B l mt dead cross. Vng C, gi iu chnh nhng MA ngn hn khng th quay tr li vng trn ng MA di hn (vn di 0). Hn na, c 1 tn hiu gim gi vo ngy 2, 3 thng 4 l mt dark-cloud cover.


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Trong biu 13.7, ng m hn l ng tn hiu. Tn hiu bn ra khi ng tn

hiu ct ng MACD cn li. Trong v d ny, 2 mu hnh engulfing gim gi v 2 im ct nhau ca MACD cng cho tn hiu gim gi.


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Hnh 13.8, ng tn hiu ct ln ng MACD cn li u thng 7. l tn hiu th

trng ang to y. C morning star lm mt hiu lc ca dark-cloud cover. Gi bt u gim t dark-cloud cover v kt thc bng 1 morning star khc. Sau khi kt thc t tng nh bng 1 hanging man, th trng chuyn sang xu hng chnh l xu hng tng.


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Chng 14: Candlesticks v cc ch s K thut nhn bit cc mu hnh thng mang tnh ch quan (k c trong k thut hnh

nn). Cc ch s l cc phng php k thut c pht trin da trn c s ton hc s cho ta nhng phng tin khch quan hn phn tch th trng. Chng c s dng rng ri v l nn tng ca nhiu h thng qun l kinh doanh.

Cc ch s bao gm cc cng c k thut nh RSI, STO v momentum. Chng c dng nh sau:

1. Cc ch s c dng nh nhng ch bo phn k (khi gi v cc ng ch s ngc chiu nhau). N cnh bo rng xu hng hin ti c th s chm dt. C 2 loi phn k :phn k m v phn k dng. Phn k m xy ra khi gi tng cao nhng cc ch s li cho kt qu ngc li. C ngha l bn thn th trng ang yu i. Phn k dng xut hin khi gi ang gim nhng cc ch s li tng. N ch ta rng cc p lc bn ang yu dn.

2. Chng c s dng nh ch bo overbought/oversold. Chng cho tn hiu th trng hot ng qu mc v chun b iu chnh. S dng ch s xc nh tnh trng overbought/oversold th phi cn thn. V cc ch s ny c xy dng ch yu s dng trong mt th trng theo xu hng nm ngang. Do nu s dng chng nh l mt ch bo overbought/oversold trong khi xu hng chnh mi bt u c th gy ra sai lm. V d, nu nh ca vng giao dch b ph v th c ngha rng th trng bulls sp xut hin nhng cc ch s vn ang mc overbought trong khi gi ang ln.

3. Cc ch s c th xc nhn lc ng sau nhng bin ng ca xu hng chnh bng cch o qun tnh (momentum) ca th trng. Momentum o vn tc ca di chuyn ca gi so vi s thay i ca gi. Trong l thuyt vn tc tng ln khi xu hng ang tip tc. Mt ng momentum bng phng c th l mt cnh bo sm rng hot ng gi ang chm li.

Dng cc ch s to lp mt v th theo xu hng chnh. Do mt ch s cho tn hiu tng gi nn c dng khi mua vo nu xu hng chnh l tng v cht li nu xu hng chnh l gim. Tng t nhng ngc li vi ch s cho tn hiu gim. Khng nn bn


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nu ch da vo nhng ch s cho tn hiu gim tr khi xu hng chnh c xc nh l xu hng gim. Nu khng, tn hiu gim do cc ch s cung cp ch nn dng cht li.

RSI RSI l mt trong s nhng cng c c s dng ph bin nht trong th trng futures.

RSI so snh sc mnh tng quan gia gi tng v gi gim trong mt chu k nht nh (9 v 14 ngy)

RSI c 2 cng dng chnh l ch bo overbought/oversold v cng c quan st phn k. L mt ch bo overbought/oversold, RSI m ch rng th trng mua qu mc nu n t ti cn trn (70 hoc 80). Lc , th trng c th quay ngc li hoc chuyn sang giai on cng c. Ngc li, cn di ca ng RSI (30 hoc 20) ni ln tnh trng bn qu mc v khi s c mt lc mua ko li. L cng c quan st phn k, RSI rt hu dng. Khi gi tng ln cao nhng RSI li khng tng ln trong cng thi im. y l phn k m v cho du hiu gim. Ngc li vi phn k dng. Phn k c ngha hn khi RSI ang trong vng overbought/oversold.


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Hnh 14.1 c 2 phn k m v dng cng vi s xc nhn ca cc candlesticks. Ti thi im ngy 24 thng 1, gi thp v gi tr RSI= 28%. Ngy 31 thng 1, gi li thp hn gi trong ngy 24 thng 1 nhng RSI= 39%. Gi thp hn nhng RSI cao hn to ra phn k dng. Bn cnh , mt thn nn trng di p o thn nn en nh trc to thnh mu hnh engulfing tng gi.

Mt ngi sao doji xut hin ngy 14 thng 3, phin tip theo l mt cy nn gn ging hanging man (bng di ca n khng di tr thnh hanging man chun). Ngoi tn hiu gim gi do candlesticks cung cp, RSI cng cho mt cnh bo xu. Gi to cc nh mi vo ngy 15 v 16 thng 3 li cho cc gi tr RSI thp hn. y l phn k m. Th trng to nh mi ngy 21 thng 3 nhng RSI vn tip tc gim. Kt qu l gi b y xung vng h tr ca thng 3 $1.11.

Hnh 14.2, s st gim bt u vi mu hnh engulfing gim gi, kt thc bng mt

piercing tng gi. Tn hiu tng gi ca piercing cn c cng c thm bi phn k dng ca RSI. Mt vi nh phn tch k thut cng v trendlines cho RSI. Trong trng hp ny, ng h tr ca RSI vn cn trong khi gi chm y mi ngy 29 thng 3.


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Hnh 14.2 cn s dng candlesticks vi RSI. Candlesticks cho tn hiu tng hay gim v cn thm s xc nhn ca RSI. Mt vi nh phn tch cho rng RSI bo mt tn hiu tng qua 2 im. im th nht l n c phn k dng. im th 2 l RSI phi vt qua cc nh c ca n. Trong v d trn, RSI phi vt qua mc RSI ngy 20 thng 4 (A). Theo nh kin trn, mt tn hiu tng gi xut hin ti B. Tuy nhin kt hp tn hiu tng gi ca candlesticks (engulfing tng gi) v phn k dng th tn hiu tng gi xut hin vi ngy trc .

Doji l mt tn hiu xu trong mt xu hng tng nhng cng ging nh nhng tn hiu k thut khc, i khi n cng nh la bn. Mt cch khng b la chnh l s dng thm cc phng tin k thut khc. Hnh 14.3 cho thy vic dng RSI nh l mt cng c xc nhn.

Mt shooting star v mt doji xut hin gia thng 5 (A). Ch bo ny nh du xu

hng tng trc kt thc, hin ti th trng s sideways trong mt vi tun ti. Sau , mt t iu chnh y gi ln ti nh mi ti B. nh mi ny cao hn nh ti A gn 100 im. Nhng ti B, RSI li thp hn RSI ti A. N phn nh th trng ang yu i.


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Harami ti B xc nhn iu ny. Sau c mt t iu chnh khc, n chm mc 3000 im ti C. nh mi cng trn mc gi ca nh B nhng RSI vn gim. Phn k m li xut hin kt hp vi shooting star, doji, hanging man cho thy s yu t ca th trng mc d gi vn tng mnh v c nhng nh mi.

STOCHASTIC STO cng l mt ch s thng dng khi phn tch th trng. N ch ra vng

overbought/oversold, tn hiu phn k, cung cp mt phng tin k thut so snh xu hng ngn hn vi xu hng di hn. Ch s STO c gi tr 0-100. STO so snh gi ng ca gn nht vi gi cao nht v thp nht qua mt s chu k nht nh. Mc gi ng ca gn vng trn cho thy xu hng tch ly ca th trng (p lc mua), v mc gi gn vng di cho thy xu hng phn loi ca th trng (p lc bn).

Nh ni trn, STO c nhiu ng dng, trong ng dng ln nht l quan st s phn k. Nhiu nh phn tch k thut dng STO xc nh vng overbought/ oversold. Mt vi nh phn tch k thut cn c mt iu kin khc, l ng %K ct xung ng %D cho mt tn hiu bn v %K ct ln ng %D cho mt tn hiu mua. N cng tng t nh MA ngn hn ct MA di hn. Nh vy, c mt tn hiu mua r rng, cn phi c cc yu t sau: th trng ang oversold (%D=25%), phn k dng, %K ct ln ng %D.


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Hnh 14.4, phin ngy 3 thng 1 l mt doji theo sao mt thn nn trng di. Doji ny to nh mi, vt qua nh ca thng 12 nhng STO li khng to nh mi m li gim xung to ra phn k m. l tn hiu gim c xc nhn bi doji. Ngoi quan st phn k, cc nh phn tch k thut cn xem xt %K ct ln ng %D.


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Hnh 14.5, gia nm 1989, c mt hammer. Sau l mt lot hammer u 1990.

iu ny c ngha g? Hammer B to ra y mi khi n ph v y do hammer A to ra. Cha ht, STO ti B ln hn STO ti A. l phn k dng. N cho tn hiu p lc bn ang gim. Cn mt tn hiu na l ng %K ct ln ng %D. im ct ny pht huy hiu qu tt hn khi n trong vng oversold (


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Hnh 14.6. Phin ngy 12 v 14 thng 6 to ra dark-cloud cover. Thn nn en sau

vo ngy 16 y gi ln cao hn nh ca thng 3. Gi ang mt nh mi nhng STO li ngc li. Dark-cloud cover v phn k m l 2 tn hiu thn trng trong t iu chnh. Thm vo c mt tn hiu xc nhn l %K ct xung ng %D.


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Hnh 14.7 c nhiu phin thn nn nh hay doji lin tip nhau, v cn c mt window. Nhng nhng tn hiu ny cn thm xc nhn ca cc ch bo khc. Sut tun 19 thng 3. Morning star xut hin. Thng thng, tt nht l thn nn th 3 nn lp y thn nn en u tin, nhng thn nn trng ny khng nh vy. Trc khi kt lun mu hnh ny quan trng nh th no, hy xem cc ch s khc. Ti thi im morning star xut hin (thc cht l bin th ca morning star), gi to mt y mi v STO th ngc li. ng %K ct ln ng %D cho mt phn k dng. Do vy trong trng hp ny, bin th ca morning star ch cho tn hiu tm ngng giao dch trong giai on ny. STO cng xc nhn nh vy.

MOMENTUM Momentum o tc thay i ca gi ng ca. Nu ta tnh momentum 10 ngy tc l

ta so snh gi ng ca hm nay vi gi ng ca ca 10 ngy trc . Nu gi ng ca hm nay cao hn, momentum >0 v ngc li. Nu chnh lch gi ngy cng tng ln cho ta mt xu hng nht nh. Xu hng tng nu gi tr momentum ngy cng ln. Hay ni cch khc, s thay i v gi tng ln. Nu gi tng nhng momentum tr nn bng phng, xu hng ny ang chm li. y c th l mt cnh bo sm rng xu hng gi trc sp


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kt thc. Nu momentum ct xung ng 0, l tn hiu gim gi, ct ln ng 0, l tn hiu tng gi.

Momentum cng l cng c xc nh vng overbought v oversold. V d khi ch s momentum c gi tr ln th th trng ang overbought v c th s iu chnh. Momentum thng chm nh trc khi gi chm nh. Da vo iu ny, ch bo momentum overbought c th dng d on nh ca gi.

Hnh 14.8. Doji chn di trong thng 1 cho nhng ngi mua tn hiu nn cn thn.

Thm mt l do na l gi c nh mi trong phin doji ny v momentum thp hn rt nhiu so vi nh ca momentum ti A vo thng 11. Mt bng chng khc l momentum xung di ng 0 vo u thng 2. Tt c u cho tn hiu v mt xu hng gim bt u.


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Mt cng dng khc ca momentum l cung cp thc o vng overbought/ oversold.

(Hnh 14.9). Trong biu ny, ta xt xem mt ch s trong khong +200 (gi ng ca cao hn so vi gi ca 10 ngy trc $.02) th hin mt vng overbought nh th no. Trng thi oversold tn ti khi momentum l -400 ( gi ng ca thp hn gi ca 10 ngy trc $.04). Ti mc overbought +200, t iu chnh trc khng th tip tc v th trng s sideways hay i xung. Du hiu o chiu nh v momentum xc nh vng overbought s chc chn hn nu c ch bo hnh nn xc nhn. Vo thng 2, mc momentum overbought cng vi mt evening star. Sau l 1 harami cross. Mt tn hiu overbought khc l u thng 4, c mt evening star. Hammer A v B kt hp vi momentum oversold vo thng 3 v thng 4. Tt c u cho thy th trng khng th tip tc bn tho m s sideways hay iu chnh tng.


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Chng 15: Candlesticks v khi lng. L thuyt v khi lng cho rng khi lng cng ln th lc di chuyn ca n cng

ln. Khi khi lng tng ln, xu hng gi hin ti s tip tc. Tuy nhin nu gi tng ln nhng khi lng li gim th c rt t c s tin rng xu hng hin ti s tip tc. Khi lng cng rt hu ch khi xc nhn nh hoc y. Khi lng nh trong mt t test ngng h tr cho thy s yu i ca lc bn v l mt tn hiu tng gi. Ngc li, nu khi lng nh trong t test ngng khng c l mt tn hiu gim gi v n cho thy lc mua yu. Khi lng l cng c o lc ca hot ng gi. Chng ny ni v s kt hp gia khi lng v candlesticks.

Hnh 15.1 cho thy s kt hp gia khi lng v candlesticks xc nhn y i v nh

i. Ti thi im ngy 22 thng 3 (1), th trng c y ln gn nh ca cui thng 2, gn 94. Khi lng lc ny l 504000 ( tng khi lng giao dch). Trong phin tip theo,


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gi c y qua mc 94. Thn nn trng nh chng t th trng bulls ang ui sc . Khi lng nh ca thn nn ny cng ch ra iu . Cui cng th trng bulls cng kt thc sau 1 tun. Cui thng 3, trong vng 2 ngy, th trng rt 2 im. Tip theo l thn nn trng di ngy 4 thng 4 (2). Liu phin tng mnh ny c gip th trng tng tr li khng? C l khng th. u tin, chng ta ch n khi lng ca phin iu chnh ny l kh nh 300000. Thn nn en di mt vi phin trc (ngy 29, 30 thng 3) c khi lng ln hn. Mt tn hiu khc bo hiu rc ri. Ngy tip theo (3) l mt thn nn nh, (2) v (3) to thnh mu hnh harami. y l lc ngh rng xu hng tng trc kt thc. Thm vo , thn nn nh ny cng l bin th ca hanging man (mt hanging man l tng xut hin ti nh ca mt xu hng tng hay mt vng giao dch). Tip , ti (4), th trng li chm mc 94. y l 1 ricksaw man. Hn na lc y gi tng i yu v khi lng t (379000) so vi khi lng ca ngy 22 thng 3 (504000). Khi lng nh trong t test mt nh c to c hi cho mt nh i xut hin. Th trng y ca ngy 30 thng 3 xc nhn y i.

Chng ta thy khi lng nh trong t test mt nh c th l tn hiu ca mt nh, c bit l kt hp vi cc ch bo candlesticks. Trong biu ny chng ta c khi lng v candlesticks bo hiu y. Phin ngy 27 thng 4 l mt doji. Nu c xc nhn th y hon ton c th l mt tn hiu o chiu y. Doji ngy 27 thng 4 tr nn quan trng hn khi 3 ngy sau , 1 doji khc xut hin. Hai doji ny rt c ngha. Hy xem iu g xy ra trong 2 ngy . u tin l mt tweezers bottom. Tip theo, xt n khi lng trong nhng ngy ny.27 thng 4, khi lng l 448000. Trong phin doji th hai, ngy 2 thng 5, khi lng ch bng mt na. Khi lng nh trong t test cho tn hiu tng gi.

Engulfing tng gi trong hnh 15.2, thn nn trng cui thng 4 vi khi lng ln nht trong vng vi thng tr li . N l tn hiu tng gi kh chc chn. t test ngng ny mt ln na vi khi lng nh nh du bng hammer chng minh s vng chc ca ngng h tr ny.

Hai cng c k thut c th da trn khi lng c dng nhiu nht l on balance volume v tick volume. Tick volume th c dng nhiu trong th trng futures.


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On balance volume (OBV) OBV c th dng xc nh xu hng nu th trng ang i theo mt xu hng nht

nh. Nu gi tng cng vi OBV, n phn nh rng ngi mua ang mua nhiu hn, k c khi gi ang cc mc cao. l mt tn hiu tng gi. Ngc li nu gi v OBV cng gim, n chng t rng cc nh u t ang bn ra vi khi lng ln cc mc gi thp s tip tc. OBV cng c dng trong th trng sideways. Nu OBV tng v gi n nh (tt hn l trong vng gi thp), n cho ta bit y l giai on tch ly v bo trc l gi s tng. Nu gi sideways v OBV gim, th trng ang trong giai on phn loi. cng l tn hiu gim gi, c bit l khi gi ang tng cao.


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OBV v candlesticks

Hnh 15.3. Ngy 13 thng 6, mt phin bn tho mnh m c theo sau bi mt thn

nn nh. Mu hnh harami ny chuyn xu hng gim thnh sideways. Th trng sideways trong mt vi tun sau . Trong sut thi gian , OBV tng ln cho tn hiu th trng ang tch ly. Ngy 25 thng 6, c 1 y mi do hammer to ra. Phn k dng ca OBV, th trng bears tht bi trong vic gi y mi v hammer cho tn hiu th trng ang y.


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Chng 16: Candlesticks v sng Elliot L thuyt sng Elliot c rt nhiu nh phn tch k thut dng. N c Elliot xy

dng vo u th k 20. ng nhn ra rng gi dch chuyn trong 5 sng tin v 3 sng li (sng iu chnh), 8 con sng ny to thnh mt m hnh nh trong hnh 16.1.

Sng 1, 3, 5 c gi l sng tin; 2,4 l sng li. Tng t nhng ngc li vi mt th

trng c xu hng gim. ng cn s dng dy s Fibonacci xy dng l thuyt ny nhm a ra nhng d bo v th trng. S sng v t s Fibonacci gn lin nhau xc lp di cho t sng tip theo. V d, sng 3 cao gp 1,681 ln sng 1, sng 4 s iu chnh gim 38,2% hoc 50% sng 3, v.v

Sng Elliot v candlesticks: Chng ny nghin cu candlesticks cho tn hiu kt thc nhng t sng Elliot. Sng

quan trng nht trade l sng 3 v sng 5. Sng 3 thng l sng di nht. nh ca sng 5 l im o chiu. m sng Elliot l vic lm mang tnh ch quan (t nht l cho ti khi sng kt thc), v mi ngi s c cch m sng khc nhau.


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Hnh 16.2a c 5 sng. Sng 1 bt u bng mt dark-cloud cover. Cui thng 2, sng 1

kt thc bng mu hnh harami gia thng 3. Harami bo hiu rng xu hng gim trc


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kt thc. Tip theo , gi bt ln li. Sng 2 l mt t iu chnh kt thc bng mt dark-cloud cover khc. Sng 3 cng l mt t gim gi. di ca sng ny c th c lng c bng cch dng t s Fibonacci vi cao ca sng 1. Vy sng 3 s kt thc mc $17.60. Ti y c mt ch bo hnh nn cho du hiu xc nhn y ca sng 3- ngy 11 thng 4. Chi tit hn trong hnh 16.2b. Ngy 11 thng 4, du th rt $1 so vi gi ng ca trc . Ti , t selloff dng nh cn tip tc. Nhng n b dng li t ngt $17.35, rt gn vi nh $17.60. Trong hnh u tin, t selloff kt thc bng mt hammer kinh in. Tn hiu tng gi ny i km vi mt lot thn nn trng di. Chng xc nhn y cho sng 3. Biu daily cng cho thy tn hiu o chiu y bng mt piercing tng gi (ngy 10, 11 thng 4). nh ca t sng iu chnh 4 khng c vt qua y ca sng 1 theo l thuyt sng Elliot. Trong v d ny s l $19.95. Tht vy, trong 2 ngy 14, 15 thng 5th trng xc lp mc $20 bng mt harami cross v tweezers top. nh sng 4 c hnh thnh. Nu chia sng 4 thnh nhng phn nh a, b, c th c nhng xc nhn ca candlesticks ti . Ti a, 1 shooting star vi 1 window u thng 4 xut hin. Morning star ti B to y. C l nh ca sng 4 vi harami cross v tweezers top.


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Hnh 16.3. 5 sng gim bt u cui thng 12 nm 1989 t 100.16. y ca sng 1 l mu hnh harami. nh ca sng 2 to mt dark-cloud cover. Sng 3 khng cho tn hiu no. Sng 4 c mu hnh harami. Sng 5 l sng cui cng ca xu hng gim. y ca sng 5 c xc nh bng cch ly chiu cao ca sng 3 vi cc t s Fibonacci. N cho con s 88.08. Cui thng 4, y mc 88.07. Ti y, candlesticks cho tn hiu tng mnh l mt tweezers bottom v 2 doji ngay sau tweezers bottom. Khi lng cng xc nhn y.


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Chng 20: Ti dng candlesticks nh th no?

Mi ngi c mt cch trade khc nhau. Ti khng mong cc bn s lm y nh ti. Mc ch ca chng ny l cung cp cho cc bn mt vi quy lut khi trade. N cng ch ra cho bn cch kt hp candlesticks vi cc phng php trade. Hi vng sau khi c xong bn s mun kt hp candlesticks vi cc phng php phn tch k thut khc ca mnh.

Hnh 20.1 c mu hnh head and shoulders vi nh trong ngy 29 thng 5. Sau th

trng gim. Theo l thuyt k thut phng Ty, mt khi ng neckline ca head and shoulders b ph v th sau gi s bt ln trc khi p lc bn quay li. Sut tun 11 thng 6, gi tin v neckline. Phin ngy 11 thng 6 l mt thn nn trng di. Mt t bn nh khng ng ch . Ti cn c xc nhn thm chc chn rng t iu chnh ang gp rc ri. Th trng cho tn hiu vi 1 thn nn en nh trong phin tip theo. N chng t rng thn nn trng trc mt hiu lc. Ngy 13 thng 6, ti ngh n vic mua vo mc gi $6.27 v t stop ngay trn neckline- $6.35. Da vo vng h tr u nm ti xc nh


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mc gi mc tiu ca ti l $5.90. Ngi bn hi vng cui tun gi s tng. Ngy 18 thng 6, tn hiu rng y l lc nn mua vo tr li:

1. Thn nn trng di ngy 18 thng 6 p o thn nn en trc to mu hnh engulfing tng gi

2. M ca ngy 18 thng 6, gi gim to thnh y mi khi vt qua y u thng 6. Tuy nhin, gi tng li ln trn y . y l mu hnh spring khi c hnh thnh khi y b ph v nhng khng gi c trng thi . Da vo spring ti ngh rng s c mt t test li vng khng c.

3. Thn nn ngy 18 thng 6 l mt belt-hold tng gi. 4. y mi c xc nhn bi STO. l phn k dng. Th trng bears ang mt

dn u th. Hot ng gi ngy 18 thng 6 cho thy y khng phi lc bn ra. Ti mua li trong

phin sau vi mc gi $6.12. y l mt v d v phng php trade da trn k thut phng Ty kt hp vi candlesticks.

Hnh 20.2. Cui thng 5, ta thy gi gim, c xc nhn bng mt ng khng c c

hng i xung. N chng t xu hng chnh l gim. Ngng h tr ca cui thng 3, u thng 5 gn $.92. Ngy 14 thng 6, gi cafe rt xung di y, khng phi l thi im


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bn ra. Ngy 14 thng 6, thn nn en di cho thy p lc bn rt ln. Th trng oversold nn khng nn bn vo lc ny. Thn nn nh theo sau thn nn en di to thnh mu hnh harami. Harami cho thy khng nn lao vo bn v xu hng gim trc y mt. Th trng s sideways hay iu chnh. Tht vy, gi cafe iu chnh. t iu chnh ny kt thc ngay gn $.92. V sao? Nh rng ngng h tr c s thnh ngng khng c mi. Cui thng 3 cho ti thng 3, y gn $.92. Mc ny tr thnh ngng khng c. Khi th trng iu chnh gn n $92, n vn ang trong xu hng gim. Ngy 20 thng 6, c 1 window bo hiu gi s tip tc gim. Ngy 21 thng 6, th trng tht bi khi khng vt qua c vng khng c ca window. Lc , ti khuyn ngh nn bn ra mc $.9015 v t stop trn mc gi cao ca ngy 20 thng 6 l $.9175. Mc tiu ca ti l $.8675 (da vo mc h tr trc ). Th trng tip tc gim.

Ti thi im c phn nh trong hnh 20.3, gi du th ang trong xu hng gim.

Ti ang i mt t iu chnh bn ra. C mt t iu chnh bt u t ngy 21 thng 6 bng mt hammer (ch rng ti khng dng hammer ny xc nh thi im mua vo. V sao? V xu hng chnh l gim). Sau vi ngy, 1 engulfing gim gi xut hin. Lc ny hy bn ra mt t. C mt window gia ngy 15 v 18 thng 6. Tin rng window ny l ngng khng c ti t stop ngay trn - $17.65. Gi mc tiu l mt t test li gn mc


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y ca hammer. t iu chnh sau , ngy 25 thng 6, a gi quay tr li vng khng c to ra bi engulfing v window.

Hnh 20.4. Ngy 4 thng 6, gi vt qua mc thp nht ca cui thng 4, u thng 5

bng mt hammer. Nhng l mu hnh spring v gi ko gi c trng thi .Mc d hammer xut hin nhng cng cn phi i xc nhn thm trong phin tip theo quyt nh mua vo v th trng ang gi $2.65 l mc h tr mnh. Sau hammer, th trng m ca gi cao. Ti mua vi gi $2.68 vi stop di ng h tr $2.64. Gi mc tiu l $2.79. Phin sau hammer, th trng tng mnh to thnh mu hnh morning star. Mc d cc t trade trong ngy 20 thng 5 khng em li nhiu li nhun nhng l v d cho ta thy vic dng candlesticks c th gip xc nh vng mua bn rt hiu qu. Hot ng gi th 6 ngy 2 thng 3 cho mt vi tn hiu mua vo. u tin l mt hammer. Sau hammer l mt thn nn nh nm trong thn nn cao lc trc to mu hnh harami. Harami ny bo rng t gim nh trc kt thc. Cui cng, mc gi m hammer vt qua ngng h tr u thng 2 khng gi c. Ni cch khc, th trng bears c gng ph v mc ny nhng khng thnh cng. chnh l lc mua vo. Ngy 5 thng 3, ti t mua vi gi $21.38.


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Mc tiu l t test nh ngn hn cui thng 2- $22. V mc tiu rt gn nn ti t stop ngay di im gi thp nht ca hammer- $21.

Hnh 20.3. Ngy 6 thng 3, th trng i ln nh ca ngy 28 thng 2 v 1 thng 3, gn

mc $21.75. Nhng gi khng th i qua vng khng c ny. Sauk hi nhn ra iu ny, ti t stop cao hn, thot ra khi th trng ngy 7 thng 3 khi gi c y xung thp hn y ca hammer nh mt im c bo trc.


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Kt lun Cun sch ny l kt qu ca nhiu nm hc tp, nghin cu v kinh nghim thc t. Hi

vng n s m ra mt li i mi cho phn tch k thut. Sauk hi dng candlesticks mt thi gian, ti chc rng bn cng nh ti, s khng trade nu khng c tn hiu do candlesticks cung cp.

Ti khng s dng biu bar na m ch s dng candlesticks. Nhng iu khng c ngha l ti ch s dng nhng ch bo hnh nn. Trong khi candlsticks c vai tr quan trng trong vic phn tch th trng, ti vn dng cc cng c k thut khc theo mnh. l u im ca candlesticks. Bn c th s dng nhiu phng php k thut cng kt hp vi candlesticks. Cc nh phn tch k thut cng lm nh vy.

Hy linh hot khi c biu hnh nn. Quan st tng hp cc ch bo th tt hn l quan st nhng mu hnh n l. V d nh tn hiu tng gi do mt cy nn cung cp trong th trng bears khng phi l tn hiu mua vo. Th nhng mt cy nn cho tn hiu tng gi trong mt th trng bulls cng kt hp vi cc ch bo khc ni ln rng l lc nn mua vo.

K c khi nhiu bn s dng cun sch ny, iu khng c ngha l cch m cc bn dng candlesticks s ging nhau. Do khng c g phi lo nu cch m bn dng khc nhng ngi khc. Bi v candlesticks cng nh nhng phng php phn tch khc i hi tnh ch quan. Hai nh phn tch nn cng ging nh hai bc s cng hc chung mt trng Y. H u c nhng kin thc ging nhau v c th con ngi, nhng mi bc s, vi kinh nghim v trit l sng, s thch ca mnh s c nhng chn on v iu tr khc nhau cho cng mt bnh nhn, k c khi triu chng ca bnh nhn ny vn nh trc . Cng ging nh khi bn phn tch k thut. Bn l bc s ca th trng. Cch m bn nhn bit, phn hi li vi nhng triu chng ca th trng thng qua vic phn tch candlesticks c th khng ging vi nhng ngi cng dng candlesticks. Cch m bn trade ty thuc vo trit l sng, thch mo him v nhng s thch khc cng nh tnh cch ca bn. l nhng phm tr rt ring. Thm vo , mi th trng u c bn cht ring ca n. Ngi Nht ni rng: Th trng cng ging nh mt ngi, khng c hai ci no ging nhau hon ton. V d, mu hnh dark-cloud cover hot ng rt tt trong biu daily ca du th trong khi hammer li xut hin vi tn s ln trong biu weekly ca gi ng. Nghin cu bn cht ca th trng, bn c th tm ra nhng mu hnh hay bin th ca n xut hin nhiu nht v


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hot ng c hiu qu nht trong th trng . C cu ni: Nu cho ti con c, ti ch n c trong ngy hm nay, nhng nu dy ti cch cu c, ti c th c c n c i. Ti hi vng cun sch ny cho bn thm mt t kin thc v cu c. T bn c th gii c mt s b mt ca biu hnh nn.

Qua vi th k pht trin, candlesticks chng t rng n c th pht huy tc dng khi c dng n l hay kt hp vi cc k thut phn tch khc. Do , t ngi mi phn tch cho ti nhng chuyn gia, ai cng c th dng candlesticks c.

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