Chronic Food Insecurity Situation Overview in 71 provinces of the Philippines 2015-2020 Key Highlights Out of the 71 provinces analyzed, Lanao del Sur, Sulu, Northern Samar and Occidental Mindoro are experiencing severe chronic food insecurity (IPC Level 4); 48 provinces are facing moderate chronic food insecurity (IPC Level 3), and 19 provinces are affected by a mild chronic food insecurity (IPC Level 2). Around 64% of the total population is chronically food insecure, of which 17% moderately food insecure and 8% severely food insecure. Population of moderately and severely food insecure account for nearly 22 million people. Summary of Classification Conclusions Severe chronic food insecurity (IPC level 4) is driven by poor food consumption quality, quantity and high level of chronic undernutrition. In provinces at IPC level 3, quality of food consumption is worse than quantity; and chronic undernutrition is also a major problem. The most chronic food insecure people tend to be the landless poor households, indigenous people, population engaged in unsustainable livelihood strategies such as farmers, unskilled laborers, forestry workers, fishermen etc. that provide inadequate and often unpredictable income. Thus, it is likely that these people are not able to satisfy their food and non-food needs in a sustainable manner. Provinces highly susceptible to flooding, landslides and drought are prone to experience excessive stresses on their coping mechanisms. Summary of Underlying and Limiting Factors Major factors limiting people from being food secure are the poor utilization of food in 33 provinces and the access to food in 23 provinces. Unsustainable livelihood strategies are major drivers of food insecurity in 32 provinces followed by recurrent risks in 16 provinces and lack of financial capital in 17 provinces. In the provinces at IPC level 3 and 4, the majority of the population is engaged in unsustainable livelihood strategies and vulnerable to seasonal employment and inadequate income. Low-value livelihood strategies and high underemployment rate result in high poverty incidence particularly in Sulu, Lanao del Sur, Maguindanao, Sarangani, Bukidnon, Zamboanga del Norte (Mindanao), Northern Samar, Samar (Visayas), and Masbate, Occidental Mindoro (Luzon). These economic constraints coupled with the increase in retail prices of major commodities led to a decline in purchasing power. Food utilization is also poor in the majority of the provinces as evidenced by low rates of exclusive breastfeeding; and limited access to improved sources of water, toilet and cooking fuel, which mostly limit food consumption quality and caring practices. Key for Map Chronic Food Insecurity Level Severe CFI Moderate CFI Mild CFI Minimal CFI Inadequate Evidence Not Analyzed Recurrence of Crisis Area classified as Crisis or worse during at least 3 years in previous 10 years Mapped level represents highest CFI severity for at least 20% of the households. Key for Callout Boxes Area Name Pop & % in Level 2,3,4 Aggregate Numbers For more information, contact: Ms. Hygeia Ceres Catalina B. Gawe ([email protected]) or Mr. Alberto C. Aduna ([email protected]) Analysis Partners & Supporting Organizations = 10% of the pop 1 2 3 4 Level % (‘000s) 36% 38% 17% 8% 30,673 32,782 14,255 7,008 % of pp in each Level 0% 100% Disclaimer: The boundaries, names, and designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by collaborating agencies or the IPC Global Partners. Chronic analysis assumes % HH’s equals % pop
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Chronic Food Insecurity Situation Overview in 71 provinces of the Philippines 2015-2020
Key Highlights Out of the 71 provinces
analyzed, Lanao del Sur, Sulu, Northern Samar and Occidental Mindoro are experiencing severe chronic food insecurity (IPC Level 4); 48 provinces are facing moderate chronic food insecurity (IPC Level 3), and 19 provinces are affected by a mild chronic food insecurity (IPC Level 2).
Around 64% of the total population is chronically food insecure, of which 17% moderately food insecure and 8% severely food insecure.
Population of moderately and severely food insecure account for nearly 22 million people.
Summary of Classification Conclusions Severe chronic food insecurity (IPC
level 4) is driven by poor food consumption quality, quantity and high level of chronic undernutrition.
In provinces at IPC level 3, quality of food consumption is worse than quantity; and chronic undernutrition is also a major problem.
The most chronic food insecure people tend to be the landless poor households, indigenous people, population engaged in unsustainable livelihood strategies such as farmers, unskilled laborers, forestry workers, fishermen etc. that provide inadequate and often unpredictable income. Thus, it is likely that these people are not able to satisfy their food and non-food needs in a sustainable manner.
Provinces highly susceptible to flooding, landslides and drought are prone to experience excessive stresses on their coping mechanisms.
Summary of Underlying and Limiting Factors Major factors limiting people from being food
secure are the poor utilization of food in 33 provinces and the access to food in 23 provinces.
Unsustainable livelihood strategies are major drivers of food insecurity in 32 provinces followed by recurrent risks in 16 provinces and lack of financial capital in 17 provinces.
In the provinces at IPC level 3 and 4, the majority of the population is engaged in unsustainable livelihood strategies and vulnerable to seasonal employment and inadequate income.
Low-value livelihood strategies and high underemployment rate result in high poverty incidence particularly in Sulu, Lanao del Sur, Maguindanao, Sarangani, Bukidnon, Zamboanga del Norte (Mindanao), Northern Samar, Samar (Visayas), and Masbate, Occidental Mindoro (Luzon). These economic constraints coupled with the increase in retail prices of major commodities led to a decline in purchasing power.
Food utilization is also poor in the majority of the provinces as evidenced by low rates of exclusive breastfeeding; and limited access to improved sources of water, toilet and cooking fuel, which mostly limit food consumption quality and caring practices.
Key for Map
Chronic Food Insecurity Level
Severe CFI Moderate CFI
Mild CFI
Minimal CFI
Inadequate Evidence Not Analyzed
Recurrence of Crisis Area classified as Crisis or worse during at least 3 years in previous 10 years
Mapped level represents highest CFI severity for at least 20% of the households.
Disclaimer: The boundaries, names, and designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by collaborating agencies or the IPC Global Partners. Chronic analysis assumes % HH’s equals % pop
Page 2 of 17
Table of Contents
Chronic Food Insecurity Situation Overview in 71 provinces of the Philippines 2015-2020 ..... 1
Key conclusions, implications for response, process and next steps ........................................ 3
Bukidnon, Lanao del Norte, Davao Occidental, Sarangani, Agusan del Sur, and Surigao del Sur.
Recurrent Risks: The 29 provinces prone to flash floods and landslides are Lanao del Sur in the Autonomous
Region in Muslim Mindanao; Abra, Benguet, Ifugao, Kalinga and Mountain Province in the Cordillera
Administrative Region; Negros Occidental in Negros Island Region; Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union and
Pangasinan in Ilocos region; Cagayan, and Nueva Vizcaya in Cagayan Valley; Aurora, Nueva Ecija, Pampanga,
Tarlac, and Zambales in Central Luzon; Occidental Mindoro and Oriental Mindoro in Mimaropa region;
Zamboanga del Sur in Zamboanga Peninsula; Albay and Sorsogon in Bicol; Aklan, Capiz and Iloilo in Western
Visayas; Misamis Occidental in Northern Mindanao; and Compostela Valley and Davao Oriental in the Davao
region. These provinces are vulnerable to natural hazards brought about by rain-induced landslides, flooding
and drought which affect infrastructure, housing and agriculture sectors. These nature-induced shocks can lead
to the destruction of livelihood assets and displacement of families, and thereby weaken the coping capacity of
the households. Natural disasters and conflict also have direct impact on the food production and can result in
a difference between farm-gate and retail prices.
Poor access to improved
water source (20-30%) Poor access to improved lighting source (10-20%)
High use of non-improved
cooking fuel (50-60%)
Page 7 of 17
The table providing a summary of the major limiting and underlying factors in the 38 provinces is provided in
Annex C.
RECOMMENDATION FOR RESPONSE ANALYSIS BY DECISION MAKERS
The provinces and population facing severe and moderate chronic food insecurity (IPC-Chronic level 3 and 4)
are of major concern and warrant action from the government and the development community.
An immediate and coordinated mid- and the long-term response from the Government, development partners
and I/NGOs is primarily necessary for Lanao del Sur, Sulu, Northern Samar and Occidental Mindoro provinces,
where 658,000 people are facing severe chronic food insecurity (IPC-Chronic level 4 ) due to lack of food
access, poor food utilization, protracted natural and human induced shocks, unsustainable and low value
livelihood strategies.
It is also recommended that the Government and partners implement interventions aimed at improving the
quality and quantity of consumption as well as decreasing chronic malnutrition in the 52 provinces and for the
21.6 million people facing moderate and severe chronic food insecurity (IPC-Chronic level 3 and 4).
Based on these key findings, the following are recommendations for consideration in the planning of
provincial, regional and national governments as well as development partners:
Strengthen social protection programs by expanding coverage and efficient identification of poor
families with priority given to children, women and older persons and their families
Integrate employment diversification and sustainable economic empowerment programs with local
agricultural production processes for the poor and vulnerable
Increase investments in rural off-farm and non-farm employment generating activities such as
agribusiness enterprises to address seasonal agricultural activities
Scale-up investments on nutrition, particularly on the components of First 1000 Days (from
pregnancy, birth to 6 months, and 6 months to 2 years) as a proven solution to prevent child
malnutrition
Strengthen disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation programs, particularly in the most
vulnerable areas, to increase people’s resilience and decreasing their vulnerabilities
The first round of IPC Philippines chronic food insecurity analysis
workshop took place during 20-24 January 2015 and covered 18
provinces in Mindanao. The second analysis was conducted on 22-26
February 2016 and captured other 15 provinces. The third and fourth
round of IPC-Chronic analysis were held in 20-24 March and 3-7 April
2017, respectively. The analyses used secondary information from
various sources, majority of which come from the lead agencies on
agricultural, health and nutrition surveys: Philippine Statistics
Authority (PSA), Food and Nutrition Research Institute – Department
of Science and Technology (FNRI-DOST), Philippine Atmospheric
Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA),
National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council – Office
of Civil Defense (NDRRMC-OCD), and World Food Programme
(WFP).
IPC is a set of protocols to classify chronic
and acute food insecurity. IPC consists of
four mutually reinforcing functions, each
with a set of specific protocols (tools and
procedures). The core IPC parameters
include consensus building, convergence
of evidence, accountability, transparency
and comparability. For IPC, chronic food
insecurity is defined as food insecurity that
persists over time due to structural causes,
even in the absence of exceptionally bad
circumstances.
ANNEX A. IPC PROCESS FOR CLASSIFICATION OF
CHRONIC FOOD INSECURITY
Page 8 of 17
POPULATION TABLE
Population Figures
An area level classification was employed where the province was taken as the unit of analysis. The classification level of the worst off group that crosses the 20 percent threshold has determined the overall
classification level of the province. The number and percentage of population under different levels are defined according to the IPC-Chronic Classification color codes. The confidence level of analysis is based
on criteria for corroborating evidence for confidence categories: 3 stars being high, 2 stars being medium and 1 star being acceptable level of confidence. The interim population projection is based on the "2010
Census of Population and Housing" conducted by Philippine Statistics Authority. The 2010 Census-based national population projection utilized the Cohort-Component Method. This methodology is based on the
fact that population change is a result of three demographic processes, namely: fertility, mortality and migration. Accordingly, the assumptions adopted take into account the future trends in fertility, mortality and
migration. Growth rate method was used to estimate the population for the provinces. For round 1, the provincial estimates for 2015 derived by the growth rate method were adjusted to conform with the official
national projected population counts.
Round Provinces Total # (pp) Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 2 or higher
Conf. level
# % # % # % # % # %
Round 1
Agusan del sur 710,158 178,000 25 320,000 45 142,000 20 71,000 10 533,000 75 *
An area level classification was employed where the province was taken as the unit of analysis. The classification level of the worst off group that crosses the 20 percent threshold has determined the overall classification
level of the province. The number and percentage of population under different levels are defined according to the IPC-Chronic Classification color codes. The confidence level of analysis is based on criteria for corroborating
evidence for confidence categories: 3 stars being high, 2 stars being medium and 1 star being acceptable level of confidence. The interim population projection is based on the "2010 Census of Population and Housing"
conducted by Philippine Statistics Authority. The 2010 Census-based national population projection utilized the Cohort-Component Method. This methodology is based on the fact that population change is a result of three
demographic processes, namely: fertility, mortality and migration. Accordingly, the assumptions adopted take into account the future trends in fertility, mortality and migration. Growth rate method was used to estimate the
population for the provinces. For round 2, the provincial estimates for 2016 derived by the growth rate method were adjusted to conform with the official national projected population counts.
Round Provinces Total # (pp) Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 2 or higher
An area level classification was employed where the province was taken as the unit of analysis. The classification level of the worst off group that crosses the 20 percent threshold has determined the overall classification
level of the province. The number and percentage of population under different levels are defined according to the IPC-Chronic Classification color codes. The confidence level of analysis is based on criteria for corroborating
evidence for confidence categories: 3 stars being high, 2 stars being medium and 1 star being acceptable level of confidence. The interim population projection is based on the "2010 Census of Population and Housing"
conducted by Philippine Statistics Authority. The 2010 Census-based national population projection utilized the Cohort-Component Method. This methodology is based on the fact that population change is a result of three
demographic processes, namely: fertility, mortality and migration. Accordingly, the assumptions adopted take into account the future trends in fertility, mortality and migration. Growth rate method was used to estimate the
population for the provinces. For round 2, the provincial estimates for 2016 derived by the growth rate method were adjusted to conform with the official national projected population counts.
Round Provinces Total # (pp) Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 2 or higher
An area level classification was employed where the province was taken as the unit of analysis. The classification level of the worst off group that crosses the 20 percent threshold has determined the overall classification
level of the province. The number and percentage of population under different levels are defined according to the IPC-Chronic Classification color codes. The confidence level of analysis is based on criteria for corroborating
evidence for confidence categories: 3 stars being high, 2 stars being medium and 1 star being acceptable level of confidence. The interim population projection is based on the "2010 Census of Population and Housing"
conducted by Philippine Statistics Authority. The 2010 Census-based national population projection utilized the Cohort-Component Method. This methodology is based on the fact that population change is a result of three
demographic processes, namely: fertility, mortality and migration. Accordingly, the assumptions adopted take into account the future trends in fertility, mortality and migration. Growth rate method was used to estimate the
population for the provinces. For round 2, the provincial estimates for 2017 derived by the growth rate method were adjusted to conform with the official national projected population counts.
Round Provinces Total # (pp) Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 2 or higher
An area level classification was employed where the province was taken as the unit of analysis. The classification level of the worst off group that crosses the 20 percent threshold has determined the overall classification
level of the province. The number and percentage of population under different levels are defined according to the IPC-Chronic Classification color codes. The confidence level of analysis is based on criteria for corroborating
evidence for confidence categories: 3 stars being high, 2 stars being medium and 1 star being acceptable level of confidence. The interim population projection is based on the "2010 Census of Population and Housing"
conducted by Philippine Statistics Authority. The 2010 Census-based national population projection utilized the Cohort-Component Method. This methodology is based on the fact that population change is a result of three
demographic processes, namely: fertility, mortality and migration. Accordingly, the assumptions adopted take into account the future trends in fertility, mortality and migration. Growth rate method was used to estimate the
population for the provinces. For round 2, the provincial estimates for 2017 derived by the growth rate method were adjusted to conform with the official national projected population counts.
Round Provinces Total # (pp) Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 2 or higher