President & CEO Chris Mefford February 26, 2020
President & CEO
Chris Mefford
February 26, 2020
Rainier Valley Community Development Fund | October 2019 2
•Economic development•Community development•Municipal finance•Real estate & land use•Regional economics•Economic impacts
•Strategic plans•Research reports•On-line interactive dashboards
•Program design
•Local and regional economies
•Urban, mid-sized cities, and rural areas nationwide
•Global reach to more than 100 countries
• Trends & Analysis• Forecasts• Projects & Strategies
February 26, 2020 OneRedmond 3
Contents
February 26, 2020 4
Real GDP
OneRedmond
Sources: St. Louis FRED, 2020.
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Billions 2019 $
U.S. Gross Domestic Product 1950 – 20192019 Dollars
$21.7 TrillionUp 2.1%, annually
February 26, 2020 5
Real Federal Deficit
OneRedmond
-$2,000
-$1,500
-$1,000
-$500
$0
$500
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Billions 2019 $
Sources: St. Louis FRED, 2020.
U.S. 1950 – 2019, 2019 $
$984.4 Billion, 2019Up 107% from 2015 recent low
February 26, 2020 6
Federal Debt vs GDPU.S. Federal Debt as a Percentage of GDP, 1950 - 2019
OneRedmond
-12.0%
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
Share of GDP
Sources: St. Louis FRED, 2020.
4.6% of GDP in 2019
February 26, 2020 7OneRedmond
Washington State GDP, 2018 $511.7 BillionUp 5.8%
2.7% of U.S.2.3% of U.S. Population
King County GDP, 2018 $277.1 BillionUp 7.6%
54% of WA30% of WA Population
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
February 26, 2020 8OneRedmond
King County GDP, 2018 $277.1 BillionUp 7.6%
54% of WA30% of WA Population
3 Eastside Cities $74.6 Billion27% of King County
15% of County Population
Community Attributes Inc. Based on wages paid
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
February 26, 2020 9
Regional GDPEastside cities, 2009 – 2018, estimated, 2018 $
OneRedmond
Sources: Puget Sound Regional Council 2020; Washington State Employment Security Department, 2020; St. Louis FRED, 2020; Community Attributes, 2020.
40% 40% 40% 40% 41% 40% 41% 42% 42% 43%
34% 35% 34% 33% 34% 33%33% 33%
32%31%11% 12% 12%
12% 12% 12%12%
12%11%
12%
11% 10% 11%11% 11%
11%11%
10%11%
11%
3% 3% 3%3% 3%
3%3%
3%3%
3%
$205 $207 $211$221 $227
$235$245 $252
$264$277
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
KirklandRedmondBellevue
Rest of King County
Seattle
26% of King County
February 26, 2020 10
Labor Force Participation & Unemployment1948 – December 2019
OneRedmond
Sources: St. Louis FRED, 2020.
50.0%
55.0%
60.0%
65.0%
70.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
Labor Force Participation %Unemployment Rate %
U.S.Unemployment
U.S.Labor Force Participation
Seattle MSA Unemployment
Unemployment Rate in Seattle MSA
3.6%December 2019
February 26, 2020 11
EmploymentJobs by eastside city and total, 2009-2019 (est.)
OneRedmond
Sources: Puget Sound Regional Council, 2019; Washington State Employment Security Department, 2020; Community Attributes, 2020.
Kirkland
Redmond
Bellevue
249,200
234,100
241,500
240,100 245,000 255,200
263,000 266,900
279,200 283,700
295,400
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
February 26, 2020 12
Eastside Jobs
OneRedmond
3,200
1,300
8,600
37,100
49,400
13,100
23,200
30,800
114,700
98,400
85,700
118,300
1,100
1,200
1,600
8,100
10,300
11,800
12,500
15,500
37,400
47,400
66,500
70,200
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000
Manufacturing: Paper & Chemicals
Mining, Ag, Utilities
Food & Apparel Production
Education
Government
Heavy Manufacturing
Construction
Wholesale Trade & Transport
Personal, Health, Private Education
Retail, Accommodations, Food & Arts
Information
Professional, Finance, Real Estate
EastsideSeattle
January 17, 2020 13
Workers and IncomeWorkers by Wage Range (2017 dollars)King, Pierce, and Snohomish Counties
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, OES, 2018.
442 K421 K
381 K
265 K
174 K
469 K 469 K 469 K
281 K
187 K
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
Less than$32,000
$32,000 to$50,000
$50,000 to$82,000
$82,000 to$125,000
More than$125,000
2007 2017
Workers
Annual Earnings 2017 $
10th Percentile (0.3% CAGR)
25th Percentile (0.1% CAGR)
50th Percentile (0.1% CAGR)
75th Percentile (0.6% CAGR)
90th Percentile (1.0% CAGR)
$-
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
2018 $
Wages & IncomesSeattle-Bellevue-Everett
261,440 269,670 274,690 277,640 284,640 288,890 293,690 300,100
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population
February 26, 2020 14
PopulationPopulation by eastside city and total, 2012-2019
OneRedmond
Sources: WA Employment Security Department, 2020.
Kirkland
Redmond
Bellevue
• All cities growing in population
• Major housing projects make a big difference year by year
• Together grew slightly faster than King County since 2012 (1.9% v 1.7% per year)
• Seattle grew by 2.5% per year
February 26, 2020 OneRedmond 15
OneRedmond 16
February 26, 2020 OneRedmond 17
N
February 26, 2020 OneRedmond 18
February 26, 2020 OneRedmond 19
February 26, 2020 OneRedmond 20
21
Jobs (Seattle-Bellevue-Everett)1990-2025
5 K14 K 12 K 12 K
21 K
44 K
71 K62 K
35 K 31 K
-16 K
-46 K
-14 K
9 K
34 K44 K 44 K
18 K
-76 K
-18 K
26 K37 K
42 K 42 K49 K 52 K
41 K 40 K50 K
40 K 41 K 38 K 34 K 31 K 29 K
-100,000
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
Thousands of New Jobs
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics; CAI 2020
February 26, 2020
22
Job Growth Seattle Region
0.5%1.3% 1.0%
1.9%
3.8%
5.8%4.8%
2.6%
-1.1%
-3.3%
-1.0%
0.7%
2.5%3.2%
1.2%
-5.1%
-1.3%
1.9%2.9% 3.2%
2.5%2.9%
2.3% 2.1%1.8%1.6%
1.5%
-6.0%
-3.0%
0.0%
3.0%
6.0%
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
Growth Rate
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2020; Regional Macroeconomic Forecast, Puget Sound Regional Council, 2019; Community Attributes Inc., 2020.
February 26, 2020
23
Jobs (Seattle-Bellevue-Everett)2011-2025
49 K
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Regional Macroeconomic Forecast, Puget Sound Regional Council; Washington State Employment Security Department, 2001-2023; Community Attributes Inc., 2020.
40 K 41 K38 K
34 K31 K
29 K
51 K48 K
44 K42 K 40 K40 K
32 K29 K
24 K21 K
19 K
26 K
37 K42 K 42 K
49 K52 K
41 K 40 K
50 K
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Thousands of New Jobs Most Likely ScenarioLow Scenario
High Scenario
February 26, 2020
24
Jobs by Industry (Seattle-Bellevue-Everett)
34.2
11.2
64.7
26.6
6.5
59.8
30.7
37.9
7.8
23.1
9.1
1.4
29.0 30.4
3.1
48.0
29.6 27.4
4.9
20.3
(10)
10
30
50
70
Logging,mining &
construction
Manufacturing Trade,Transportation
&Utilities
Information FinancialActivities
Professional &BusinessServices
Education &Health Services
Leisure &Hospitality
Other Services Government
2012 - 2019 2019-2023 (Forecast)Thousand New Jobs
Sources: WA Employment Security Department, Employment Projections June 2018; Puget Sound Regional Council, Regional Macroeconomic Forecast, April 2017; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2018; Community Attributes 2018
February 26, 2020
Jobs by Occupations (Seattle-Bellevue-Everett)Historic and estimated (2015-2019) and forecast (2020-2013)
Sources: Washington State Employment Security Department; Bureau of Labor Statistics; 2012-2023
25
30.0
19.3
15.1
13.3
13.1
8.6
8.4
7.2
5.5
5.3
28.7
22.9
21.7
23.3
7.7
7.0
9.2
6.3
6.2
- 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Computer and Mathematical
Food Preparation and Serving Related
Business and Financial Operations
Management
Office and Administrative Support
Education, Training, and Library
Sales and Related
Healthcare Practitioners and Technical
Personal Care and Service
Transportation and Material Moving
2020-2023 (Forecast)
2015-2019 (Historic)
Thousand New Jobs
February 26, 2020
February 26, 2020 OneRedmond 26
Jobs and Housing Units
2.3
1.3
3.4
2.2
1.7 1.5
-
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Bellevue Kirkland Redmond Eastside Seattle King County
Jobs per Housing Unit
• Regionally 1.3 jobs per housing unit
• King County as a whole imports labor
• Eastside altogether is a major employment center
February 26, 2020 27
HousingNet New Housing Units by Eastside City and Total, 2014 - 2019
OneRedmond
Kirkland
Redmond
Bellevue
930
1,330
2,020
1,760
1,540 1,710
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Housing Units
Sources: Washington State Office of Financial Management, 2020.
February 26, 2020 28
More higher income households, fewer lower income households on the Eastside
OneRedmond
34,600 26,600
9,400 7,500
27,600 28,900
21,500 27,600
15,100 29,600
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
2013 2018
Eastside Cities Households by Income (2018 dollars)
$200,000 or more
$125,000 to $199,999 (120% to 200%)
$75,000 to $124,999 (80% to 120%)
$60,000 to $74,999 (60% to 80%)
Less than $60,000 (less than 60%)
Households
108,200
120,200
February 26, 2020 29
Missing Middle Housing Conversation
OneRedmond
King County per capita Income, 2018: $90,000Median Household Income, 2018: $95,000HUD Area Median Income, 2019: $108,600
$100,000 household income assumption40% toward housing (burdened)$2,500 principal + interest monthly$520,000 purchase price
$100,000+ down payment required
February 26, 2020 30
$520,000 Maximum Purchase Price, Zillow, February 25, 2020
OneRedmond
• $100,000 household income• $520,000 max price
• $100,000 down payment• 6 years required to save for
down payment
• About 50 for sale in three Eastside cities
February 26, 2020 31
For rent, up to $2,000 per month
OneRedmond
February 26, 2020 32
Silicon ValleyEastside King County looks pretty good
OneRedmond
• $125,000 household income• $650,000 purchase price
• $130,000 down payment• 8.5 years to save for down payment
33
Population Growth & Housing Unit Change
Source: WA Office of Financial Management, 2018.
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000 Annual Households & Housing Unit ChangeKing County, 2000-2018
Housing Units Households
Gentrification & Displacement Risk
Sources: American Community Survey, 5-Year 2011-2015; Zillow 2018; Community Attributes Inc., 2018.34
January 17, 2020 35
Growth StrategiesTRADE SHOWS
BrandingMarketing, Promotion
SITE SELECTION SUPPORT
Entrepreneurial SupportHigher Education
WorkforceSupports
BUSINESS CLIMATE
PermittingBusiness Support
BASIC NEEDS HousingTRANSPORTATION
Public Safety
Schools & Early ChildhoodParks & Trails
PUBLIC HEALTH
VIBRANT NEIGHBORHOODS
CULTURAL ASSETS
Go after what we want
Work with what we’ve got
Be a good place to live
Trade Development
Thank you!