Choice

• 1. ChoiceForesight, Hindsight & Happiness
  Erik Ralston
  BIS Birds of a Feather
  January 20th, 2011
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2. Sources
Dan Pink Drive: The Surprising Truth About What Motives Use
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Dan Ariely Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our DecisionsProfessor Duke University
Dan Gilbert Professor at Harvard University
3. Sources
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Malcolm Gladwell Blink and Outliers
Barry Schwartz The Paradox of Choice: Why More is Less
Sheena Iyengar Professor at Columbia University
4. Do I Make My Own Choices?(Do I Have Free Will?)
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5. The Power of Defaults
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6. What drives Choices?
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7. Motivation!
The Drive to Decide
Excluding genuine need (or marketing), we need rewards
Extrinsic Rewards are the most common motivators
Better Pay = Better Work?Only for basic tasks, for complex tasks one must rely on
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8. Autonomy
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Freedom to choose of all options
9. Mastery
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A challenge that culminates in achievement
10. Purpose
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Importance and high impact consequences
11. A.M.P. it UP!
A.M.P. is better than any external motivator
A.M.P. is best harnessed in hobbies and startups
Are intrinsic motivators possible at work?Not usually
Management prevents Autonomy
Efficiency prevents Mastery
Interchangeability prevents Purpose
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12. What Can I Choose?
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13. Recognizing Choices
Choosing which choices are even possible
Information is always processed as an abstraction and only in contrast creating greatest opportunity for bias
Selection Bias
Primacy Effect
Recency Effect
Our first decision is often to assume the choice matters
Impact Bias
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17. The Paradox of Choice
Intuition leads us to think more choice is better, but
More choices = more viable paths to happiness?
There must be a perfect choice
Analysis of all available choices is exhausting!
Variety is not the same as autonomy!
Variety is not the same as quality!
More opportunities = more missed opportunities = regret!
Try to remember: Perfect is the enemy of Good
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18. Bias In Action
If there's a bustle in your hedgerow, don't be alarmed now, it's just a spring clean for the May queen. Yes there are two paths you can go by, but in the long run there's still time to change the road you're on.
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Oh here's to my sweet Satan. The one whose little path would make me sad, whose power is Satan. He'll give those with him 666, there was a little toolshed where he made us suffer, sad Satan
19. How Do I Choose?
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20. Foresight
Predicting outcomes of a particular path
Of all animals, humans have the best foresight
We are still not very good at it
We cant predict about choices we cant recognize
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22. Axiomatic Foresight
Literal application of Rules interpolating between instinct, advice, or limited experience
Only requires memory and conditioning
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23. Simulated Foresight
Complex simulation of outcomes in the mind extrapolating from previous experience
Odds of Gain x Value of Gain = Rational Cost
Requires experience and a pre-frontal cortex
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24. How Can I Make GoodChoices?
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25. Morality
Morals are emotional, and often instinctual, systems for regulating decisions
A different concept of optimum away from utility
Harm/Care - Impact of decisions on welfare of others
Fairness/Reciprocity - Level of equal benefit
Ingroup/Loyalty - Benefit to members of my group
Authority/Respect - Compliance with leaders
Purity/Sanctity Compliant with norms
www.yourmorals.org
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26. Blink vs. Think
Some decisions are instantaneous, some arduous
We always blink, but dont always think
Experience and practice = speed and accuracy
Size of consequences multiples required consideration
Unless you are an expert, thinking is dangerous!
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28. Making Good Choices
Even preferences need experience to discover
Blink preference is different than think preference
Blink preference is often better
Only rely on Expertise if the person is really an expert
And consult experts for big decisions
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29. How Can I Make Happy Choices?
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30. Hindsight
The feelings evoked when thinking about past decisions
Could be satisfaction, regret, ambivalence, etc
Transient experiences better convert into rosy memories than permanent objects
If you must choose between new furniture and a vacation
Irreversible decisions made without alternatives are easier to live with than
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32. Hindsight Isnt 20/20
Natural Happiness Getting What You Want
Synthetic Happiness Wanting What Youve Got
Better than just rationalization and it happens much lower in the brain than memory & reasoning
Still unhappy? Just remember that you will forget
About 3 months erases mundane regret
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33. The Secret to Happy Decisions
Lower your expectations
Dont expect perfection
Blink Dont Think (Unless its REALLY Important)
Sharp contrasts, instant connection, and economical decision-making time
Accept the things you cannot change
Permanence forces acceptance
Forget the things you cannot accept
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34. Questions?
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35. Thank You!
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