Chinese Drought, Bread Chinese Drought, Bread and the Arab Spring Beijing, 2013 Natural hazards – food security – political stability Troy Sternberg Geography.

Chinese Drought, Bread Chinese Drought, Bread

and the Arab Springand the Arab Spring

Beijing, 2013

Natural hazards – food security – political stability

Troy Sternberg Geography

University of Oxford

Selden Map, ca 1620

‘Barbarians to the north’

Great Wall

China . . .

• 22% of world’s people, 7% of water• 4 million km2 – largest dryland country in Asia• 60% agricultural production in northern China,

12% of the water• Farmland – decreased >6% 1997-2006• > 50% urban

Climate change – 1.50C temperature increase

Climate hazards:2008 – ice storms, 77 million people2009-10 – drought in south, 60 million people2010 – floods, 134 million people

Drought

problem solution

Grandpa Wen’s Forest

before after

Globalization of hazards:

Chinese drought, Bread and the Arab Spring

Egyptian change – political and economic causesHigh cost of living

40% poverty rate

Bread as a symbol of protest

WHEAT

‘Non-political Bread Riots are Breaking Out in Egypt, Killing Three’

Wall Street Journal, Feb 01, 2011

WHEATRole of the global market

2010 – decrease in world wheat production by major exporters

Russia, Ukraine – drought, extreme heat

Canada – cold, excessive rain Australia – excessive rain

Changing climate patterns – El Nino, Pacific Oscillation

Only 6-18% of wheat harvest exported

2010 Wheat ImportsRank Country Metric tons

(in '000s)1 Egypt 9,8002 Brazil 6,0003 Algeria 5,3004 Indonesia 5,3005 Japan 5,200

2010 Wheat ProductionCountry Metric tons Increase/

(in '000s) decreaseChina 114,500 -0.54%

US 60,103 -0.44%Russia 41,500 -32.74%Canada 23,167 -13.71%Ukraine 16,850 -19.38%Australia 13,500 -8.72%

Egypt – wheat low-value cropGrew higher value flowers and mangoes for export

3% of GDP spent on wheat subsidies

1/3 of calories from bread

‘Bread Intifada’ 1977

Bread riots – 2008

August 2010 –Russia stops wheat export to Egypt

Army runs wheat distribution system

•Egypt imports from majors, Argentina, Romania, Kazakhstan…

Egypt

Chinalargest wheat producer/consumer

usually self-sufficientlargest foreign reserves

Nov. 2010 – lack of rainconcern about winter wheat (22 - 90% of total) crop failure

China buys wheat on international market

Government maintaining ‘social stability’

Wheat region Drought Shangdong, Henan, Anhui – Standard Precipitation Index250+ million people through Feb. 28, 2011

SPI drought values:<-1 moderate, <-1.5 severe, <-2 extreme drought

Mckee et al. 1993, Wu et al. 2005, Sternberg et al. 2010

Months 1 2 3Anqing -0.85 -0.56 -1.41Anyang -0.48 -1.19 -2.1Bengbu -1.63 0.01 -1.05Bozhou -1.37 -2 -3Dongtai -1.94 -0.67 -1.77Huoshan -0.72 -0.96 -2Jinan -0.75 -1.26 -2.1Laohekou -1.26 -1.5 -2.1Nanjing -1.33 -0.9 -1.86Wuhan -1.21 -1.32 -1.93Xinyang -1.71 -2.6 -2.7Zhenzhou -0.85 -1.65 -2.7

Central Agricultural region – 525 million people

Drought timescale‘worst in communist party history’

3 month

6 month

Government - $1.9 billion aid, irrigation, wells, water delivery

Future? _______________________

Sternberg, T. 2011. Regional Drought has a global impact. Nature. 472:169Sternberg, T. 2012. Chinese Drought, Bread and the Arab Spring. Applied Geography, 34: 519-524.New York Times, March 3, 2013 – Opinion-Editorial

220% increase

Effect of drought on

global wheat prices

Wheat imports per capita

Countries impacted

2010 - Wheat Imports per Capita Per CapitaRank Country Metric tons Income Food - %

per million US$ of income1 UAE 370.659 47,400 92 Libya 242.803 12,062 373 Israel 238.968 27,085 184 Jordan 173.611 4,435 415 Algeria 101.439 4,477 446 Tunisia 89.330 4,160 367 Yemen 86.843 1,230 458 Egypt 81.284 2,771 399 Iraq 76.701 2,625 3510 Cuba 70.503 5,000 n/a

Soybeans

• 60% of world’s soybeans exported to China

• 83% of soybeans imported from US, Brazil, Argentina

• 16% demand increase - record 69 million metric tons

pigs

cows

chickens

Meat consumption quadrupled in 30 years, 75% protein from pork

Litres of water needed per kg:

vegetables - 322, pork - 6,000, beef 15,400

Environmental Challenges

• 300 million people live on <$2 / day

• 70% water unfit for human touch

• North China – half groundwater unfit for industry

• Coal processing consumes 1/6th of China’s water

• Pollution – northerners die 5.5 years earlier (coal heating)

• Air – Beijing ‘worst in world’? Particulate reaches US

• 20-30% cropland contaminated (arsenic, lead, mercury etc)

• Food safety/security

China - 34% income on food. UK – 9%

• 64% $ millionaires seeking 2nd residency

Arsenic in Yunnan

Environmental rehabilitation• $635 billion on water projects, e.g. South-to-North canal

• $76 billion on air

• $5 billion on soil

• $35 billion desertification

Drinking water for Beijing ‘pipeline from Lake Baikal’

Chinese Academy of Sciences, May 2014

Agricultural land

Model anti-desertification

Thank you

Role for the UK ?

Britain used as model for China‘London's air pollution policies may help Beijing’ China Daily, 2013

Expertise, technologyEnvironment, Water, Food