China’s Pan-semiconductor Industry Landscape Allen Lu, President, SEMI China July 15, 2012
China’s Pan-semiconductor Industry Landscape
Allen Lu, President, SEMI China
July 15, 2012
About SEMI
Americas
27%
Taiwan
12%
China
12%
Europe
14%
India
1%
Japan
23%
Korea
9%
Singapore
2%
CHINA 270
Companies
EUROPE 259 Companies
INDIA 15 Companies
JAPAN 435
Companies
KOREA 167
Companies AMERICAS 521
Companies
SINGAPORE 33 Companies
TAIWAN 216 Companies
Over 1,900 global
member companies SEMI member HQ location
SEMI会员的规模分布
Under $5 M
67%$1B - $2B
1%
$500M - $1B
1%
$100M - $500M
3%
Over $2.5B
>1%
$25M - $100M
6%
$5M - $25M
22%
SEMI: Global Pan-semiconductor Industry Association
SEMI’s Industry Platform
IC Emerging Markets PV
SEMICON /FPD /SOLARCON China
-- Largest Micro-electronics Industry Gathering in Asia
• 1,116 Exhibitors
• 2,813 Booths
• 69,000 m2 of Exhibiting Space
• 50,000+ Visitors
• 3,500+ Conference attendees
SEMI China’s PV Programs
• Technology and Manufacturing
– PV Standards
– Technology Roadmap
– Supply-chain development
• Advocacy
– Central government policy
– Regional government resources
• Business Development
– PV Application projects
– Global match making
– Government consulting
• Build Alliance
– CPIA, CNECC
SEMI China PV Business Development Programs
- Linking government PV projects with the PV companies
7
Gov. Engage
Grid Engage
Site
Surve
y
YuLin
May.2012
Huhhot
Sept.201
2
Xinjiang
Aug.2012
Guangdong
Nov.2012
………..
Together, we build a Semiconductor
Industry Community in China!
Source: SIA/WSTS/SEMI, Feb. 2012
Global Semiconductor Market Trend
5 6 8 10 13 14 14 1826 22 27 33
45 49 51 55 60
77
102
144132137
126
150
204
139141
166
213228
248256249
226
298300
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
19
76
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
Global Semiconductor Market ($B)
Semiconductor Revenue ($B) Annual GrowthSource: SIA/WSTS/SEMI, Feb. 2012
China Semiconductor Industry Landscape
Source –CVIA, Ministry of Information Industry of China, SEMI, May 2011
China’s Top Imports
in 2010 China’s Customs data
Europe
10%
Japan
13%
Korea
20%
North
America
20%
Taiwan
20%
China
9%
ROW
8%
2011 Equipment Market
share: SEMI
Output
(Million units)
Growth
Rate
% of World Output
Export
(Million units)
Cell Phone
998 35% 62% 758
Color TV 114.9 16% 47% 66.3
FPD TV 90.9 25% 48% 52.3
Notebook PC
193.8 19% 93% 185.9
Digital Camera
109 14% 75% 91.3
China’s Electronic Product Output in 2010
China Semiconductor Industry Landscape
Source –CVIA, Ministry of Information Industry of China, SEMI, May 2011
China’s Top Imports
in 2010 China’s Customs data
Europe
10%
Japan
13%
Korea
20%
North
America
20%
Taiwan
20%
China
9%
ROW
8%
2011 Equipment Market
share: SEMI
Output
(Million units)
Growth
Rate
% of World Output
Export
(Million units)
Cell Phone
998 35% 62% 758
Color TV 114.9 16% 47% 66.3
FPD TV 90.9 25% 48% 52.3
Notebook PC
193.8 19% 93% 185.9
Digital Camera
109 14% 75% 91.3
China’s Electronic Product Output in 2010 Strong government desire and resource to grow
Semiconductor Industry
China IC Industry by Segment
45 82 124 186 226 235 270 364
455
63 181
233 309
398 393 341
447 438
244
283
345
512
628 619 498
629 617
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011(E)
China IC Industry by Segment (in 100M RMB)
IC design IC Manufacture Packaging & Testing
Source: CISA, SEMI, 2011
China IC Industry by Segment
45 82 124 186 226 235 270 364
455
63 181
233 309
398 393 341
447 438
244
283
345
512
628 619 498
629 617
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011(E)
China IC Industry by Segment (in 100M RMB)
IC design IC Manufacture Packaging & Testing
Source: CISA, SEMI, 2011
Global Annual PV Market Scenarios
Data Source:
2007-2011: SEMI and various market data
2012-2016: GTM Research (May 2012), iSuppli (February 2012), and EPIA Policy-Driven Scenario (May 2012)
Low Growth Scenario CAGR: 16%
High Growth Scenario CAGR: 24%
Global Annual New Installations
2007-2011 CAGR: 73%
14
15
2011年3月,日本福岛核危机引发各国能源政策讨论;德国宣布至2022年关闭所有核电厂。
4月,厄瓜多尔 推出光伏FIT;
7月,中国公布光伏FIT;奥地利通过新版光伏补贴法案,捷克取消26%税负;
8月,日本通过可再生能源特别法案;
10月,澳大利亚通过“清洁能源法案”;
11月,比利时宣布将 关闭7 座核电站;
12月,马来西亚启动光伏FIT;
2012年2月,中国光伏十二五规划出台。
2011年,捷克增收26%光伏税费;
西班牙限制补贴小时数;
德国通过FIT削减方案;
法国限定500MW 年装机;
比利时区域性补贴下调;
澳大利亚区域性削减FIT;
意大利对FIT进行月度下调;
英国削减FIT;
2012年,意大利停止下半年大型项目审批;
西班牙暂停可再生能源补贴;
德国宣布逐月削减 FIT;
2012年3月,美国 公布对中国光伏企业反补贴初裁,税率为2.9%至4.73%;
5月,美国公布反倾销初裁结果,税率达31.14%至249.96%。
Global PV Policy Changes (2011- )
China PV Installation
• Benefited by series of China PV application policies, PV installation capacity in China has showed remarkable growth since 2010.
• PV FiT policy effected much than any other policies and programs in China.
16
Source: SEMI, EPIA
811 12 14
1924
3136
41
55
69 76
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
China LED Fabs Quantity 中国LED外延&芯片厂数量
Source: SEMI China
LED wafer and Chip Fabs Qty. in China
(2000-2011l)
• By end of 2011,there are 76 LED Fabs in China totally.
• The new LED fab construction in China will slow down after 2011, even some LED Fabs will disappear.
• Beijing: BOE-B1 G5; BOE-B4 G8
• Suzhou: Samsung G7.5
• Kunshan:
• IVO G5, AUO (Kunshan) G7.5
• Nanjing:
CEC-Panda G6;CEC-Sharp G8
• Chengdu:
BOE-B2 G4.5;Chengdu Tianma G4.5,
Foxconn G8.5
• Shanghai:
CAOE (pre-SVA-NEC) G5,
Shanghai Tianma G4.5
• Guangzhou: LGD G8.5
• Shanwei: Truly G2.5
• Heyuan: Yazhi G2.5 & G3.5
• Shenzhen:
Century G5, CSOT (TCL) G8.5
• Wuhan: Wuhan Tianma G4.5
• Hefei: BOE-B3 G6; BOE-B5 G8
LCD Fab Plants in China
Source: SEMI China,2010;
TFT-LCD Fab capacity is moving into China mainland, the TFT-LCD industry is speeding up!
About SEMI
Ross Young Consultant
Global LCD Industry Profitability
Recent Headlines
• Top 5 chip maker spend 65% Capex
• Huge loss by Japan’s Sony, Renesas, …
• Lenovo joined bid on Elpida
• Applied Materials acquired Varian
• Lam Research acquired Novellus
• PV, LED capacity over demand
• German PV companies file bankruptcy
• US PV companies file bankruptcy
• Foxconn acquired Sharp LCD
Recent Headlines
• Top 5 chip maker spend 65% Capex
• Huge loss by Japan’s Sony, Renesas, …
• Lenovo joined bid on Elpida
• Applied Materials acquired Varian
• Lam Research acquired Novellus
• PV, LED capacity over demand
• German PV companies file bankruptcy
• US PV companies file bankruptcy
• Foxconn acquired Sharp LCD
Industry Consolidation,
Collaboration,
Re-distribution?