China’s International Trade & Air Pollution in the U.S. Lin et al., 2014 Jessica Connolly M.S. Student Desert Research Institute 1.

China’s International Trade & Air Pollution in the

U.S.Lin et al., 2014

Jessica Connolly

M.S. Student

Desert Research Institute

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Outline

Introduction↓

Background↓

Other Studies↓

Definitions/Importance↓

Input-Output Model↓

Data Sources/Uncertainties↓

GEOS-Chem CTM↓

Results↓

Conclusions

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Introduction

Transboundary Air Pollution

• Transboundary → when airborne contaminants cross geopolitical boundaries• Efforts to improve US air quality through domestic emission controls

compromised by Asian industrialization/transpacific transport of pollution• 2000 – 2007 Chinese exports grew by 390%• Rapid industrial development → unprecedented growth in NOX

emissions with implications for both regional and global tropospheric ozone• 2 major challenges: 1. International co-operation

2. Data

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Air Pollution in China: Real-time Air Q

uality Index Visual Map

Wed, March 4, 17.15 pm, 09.15 am in China

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Background

Transboundary air Pollution factors

Species traits

Transport Mechanisms

Time of year

Transformation during

transport

Deposition velocity, stability, lifetime & season

Most rapid & frequent in Spring due to active cyclonic activity and strong Westerly winds

Warm conveyor belts, convection, orographic lifting, Aleutian Low & North Pacific High

PAN decomposition – dominant component of O3 in transpacific Asian pollution plumes

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Scientific Evidence

“Scientific Evidence of Transport of Chinese Air Pollution Across the Pacific Ocean has grown since the Late 1990’s”

2 ways to support transpacific air pollution is occurring:1. Modeling2. Scientific Monitoring

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Mean simulated US surface O3 enhancements from Asian anthropogenic emissions

Model Analyses study

• Zhang et al. 2008 • Aircraft, satellite, sonde,

surface observations• GEOS-Chem• INTEX-B campaign • 5-7 ppbv increase in O3

(due to NOx emissions)

• O3 production by PAN/Asian lower troposphere

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Chemistry O

bservations study

Obrist et al. 2008• goal → test if Asian long-range

transport leads to enhanced levels of atmospheric mercury at Storm Peak Lab• Gaseous Elemental Mercury

(GEM) long residence time → transported globally, becoming an international pollution issue• GEM enhancements, 10-day

HYSPLIT air mass trajectories & increased levels of coarse aerosols (3–4 mm) indicated the presence of Asian air masses at the lab

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Definitions

• Emissions embodied in export – pollutants emitted in China due to its production of goods for foreign consumptionEEE

• Emissions in other countries due to production of goods for Chinese consumptionEEI

• EEE less EEI – emissions embodied in net trade of ChinaEET

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Objective/Im

portance

• To analyze the impacts of trade-related Chinese emissions globally by linking economic-emission analysis and atmospheric chemical transport modeling

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Input-Output M

odel

• Captures indirect environmental impacts caused by upstream production• Commonly used

for analyzing trade-induced emissions of carbon dioxide.

2000 -2009

Emission intensity = average emission rate of a given pollutant from a given source relative to the intensity of an activity

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Data Sources/U

ncertainties

• Chinese National Bureau of StatisticsEconomy Data

• Chinese Energy Statistical Yearbook• China Iron and Steel Statistics & China Cement Almanac• China Vehicle Emission Control Annual Report & Various Literature

Activity Rates – mobile/industrial/transportation

sources

• IPCC guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories• Various LiteratureEmission Factors

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GEO

S-Chem CTM

• Global 3-D chemical transport model (CTM)

• Full Ox-NOx-CO-VOC-HOX chemistry & online calculation for various aerosols• Inputs: natural emissions → various literature,

global & Asian anthropogenic emissions → INTEX-B• Meteorological input from the Goddard Earth

Observing System (GEOS) of the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office

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Results

36%

27%

22%

17%

Chinese EEE, 2006

SO2

NOx

CO

BC

• 21% attributed to China-US export of goods

• 3-10% of annual mean surface sulfate conc’s over W US

• 0.5-1.5% O3 over US

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Maximum contribution of EEE-related Chinese air pollution to daily mean surface air pollutant concentrations over the US in 2006

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• Chinese pollution resulted in days of noncompliance with the US O3 std. in 2006 over LA and eastern US

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Simulated percentage contribution of

surface air pollution from Chinese EEE

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Simulated effects of China producing goods just for

US consum

ption

• Reduction in US emissions due to outsourcing to China

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Conclusions

• Rising emissions in China – key reason emissions remain high even as emissions in the US decrease• US emissions would be 6-19% higher in 2006 if emissions

reallocated to where goods are consumed• Advantageous for the Eastern US due to much higher population

density• China could reduce emissions significantly if they were to enhance

energy efficiency and deploy control technologies as effective as those in the US• International agreements needed• Cooperation between countries: who is responsible?

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References

• Zhang et al., Transpacific transport of ozone pollution and the effect of recent Asian emission increases on air quality in North America: an integrated analysis using satellite, aircraft, ozonesonde, and surface observations Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8 (2008) 6117–6136

• Franco DiGiovanni and Philip Fellin, (2006), Transboundary Air Pollution, in Environmental Monitoring, [Eds.Hilary I. Inyang, John L. Daniels], in Encyclopedia of Life Support Systems (EOLSS), Developed under the Auspices of the UNESCO, Eolss Publishers, Oxford ,UK, [http://www.eolss.net]

• Obrist D. et al., Atmospheric mercury concentrations at Storm Peak Laboratory in the Rocky Mountains: Evidence for long-range transport from Asia, boundary layer contributions, and plant mercury uptake, Atmopsheric Environment, 42 (2008) 7579-7589

• Liang, Q., et al., Summertime influence of Asian pollution in the free troposphere over North America, submitted to J. Geophys. Res., 2006.

• Liang, Q., L. Jaegle, and J. M. Wallace, Meteorological indices for Asian outflow and transpacific transport on daily to interannual timescales, J. Geophys. Res., 110(D18), D18308, doi: 10.1029/2005JD005788, 2005.

• Liang, Q., L. Jaegle, D. A. Jaffe, P. Weiss, A. McClintick, and J. Snow, Long-range transport of Asian pollution to the Northeast Pacific: Seasonal variations and transport pathways o f carbon monoxide, J. Geophys. Res., 109(D23), D23S07, doi: 10.1029/2003JD004402, 2004.

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Questions/D

iscussion

“Consumers who benefit from a process should bear some responsibility for associated

environmental damage”

What do you think?