China’s Renewable Energy China’s Renewable Energy China’s Renewable Energy China’s Renewable Energy – Current Situation and Future Current Situation and Future Current Situation and Future Current Situation and Future Perspective Perspective GAO Hu Energy Research Institute (ERI) of National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) China National Renewable Energy Centre (CNREC) 2015 J l B iji 2015 July Beijing 1 China National Renewable Energy Centre 2015/07/02
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China’s Renewable EnergyChina’s Renewable …Feed-in tariff for Renewable Energy Power Wind: 2 cents decreased from 2009 PV: 10 cents decreased from 2011(selected regions) 1.2
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China’s Renewable EnergyChina’s Renewable EnergyChina’s Renewable Energy China’s Renewable Energy ––Current Situation and FutureCurrent Situation and FutureCurrent Situation and Future Current Situation and Future PerspectivePerspective
GAO Hu
Energy Research Institute (ERI) of National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC)
China National Renewable Energy Centre (CNREC)
2015 J l B iji2015 July Beijing
1China National Renewable Energy Centre2015/07/02
内容 Content
Policy FrameworkPolicy Framework
Current profileCurrent profile
Plan targetPlan target
Future perspectiveFuture perspective
2015/07/02 2China National Renewable Energy Centre
Supporting Policy for R bl E P iRenewable Energy Power in ChinaChina
2015/07/02 China National Renewable Energy Centre 3
Wind: onshore technically viable 2580GW, offshore 510GW Solar: 2/3 of the land with sunshine hour over 2200. Best in
th ld f th t Chithe world for the western China. Biomass: Agro- and forestry residue resource over 400-500
million tce
2015/07/02 China National Renewable Energy Centre 11
million tce
Newly Added Power Capacity
12000
y p yTotal power capacity 1358GW, hydro 301GW, thermal power 916GW, wind 96GW, solar Total power capacity 1358GW, hydro 301GW, thermal power 916GW, wind 96GW, solar 28GW (By end of year 2014)28GW (By end of year 2014)
10000
12000 单位:万千瓦10MW
897 1457 1600 1285 1406
2072 8000
光伏发电
风 电WindSolar PV
4000
6000 风 电
核 电
火 电
水 电
Wind
NuclearCoal
Hydro
2000
水 电Hydro
0
2009年 2010年 2011年 2012年 2013年 2014年
12China National Renewable Energy Centre2015/07/02
Hydropowery pAchieve the target by year 2015Achieve the target by year 2015
2015/07/02 China National Renewable Energy Centre 13
Wind PowerAdded by 15~20GW annually, achieve the target by year 2015Added by 15~20GW annually, achieve the target by year 2015
200001401
15631400
1600
1800
20000
25000
总装机容量(万千瓦)
(万千瓦) (亿千瓦时)10MW
C i (10MW)
0.1TWh
1004
1401
1000
1200
1400
15000
20000总装机容量(万千瓦)
发电量(亿千瓦时)
Capacity (10MW)
Electricity (0.1TWh)
60837548
958110000
494
732600
80010000
126 207 420 839 17603100
46236083
131276
494
0
200
400
0
5000
00
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2020
142015/07/02 China National Renewable Energy Centre
Challenges – accommodation of wind
黑龙江
g
东 北
吉林
黑龙江
Wind bases
西 北
新疆
甘肃 河北
蒙西蒙东
宁夏
辽宁
Wind bases
西 北
西 藏
甘肃
江苏
河北
“三华”受端电网
山西 山东
Load centre
南 方
电网
南 方
China National Renewable Energy Centre 152015/07/02
Wind curtailment in Q1 2015
2015/07/02 China National Renewable Energy Centre 16
PV’s pricep60 RMB/kW
50
40
50
30
35
2530
40
元/瓦
19
139
17.5
10 9 8.510
20
4.5 4.2 4
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
PV module price decreased by 87% from 2008 to 2014PV module price decreased by 87% from 2008 to 2014
组件价格 系统价格System priceModule price
2015/07/02 17China National Renewable Energy Centre
Solar PVIncreased 10.6GW in year 2014, 2.05GW of which coming from distributed Increased 10.6GW in year 2014, 2.05GW of which coming from distributed solar PVsolar PV
10MW
Resource: National Energy Administration, China
Utility scale PV Distributed PV system
2015/07/02 China National Renewable Energy Centre 18
Solar PV – utility-scale PV stationsy
PV stations basically located in western and northern ChinaPV stations basically located in western and northern China
10MW
2015/07/02 China National Renewable Energy Centre 19
Solar PV – distributed systemy
Distributed PV basically located in the eastern partDistributed PV basically located in the eastern part
8
10
3
46
9
8
10
3
46
9万千瓦江苏 85浙江 70
12
10MW
12
4
8
1
4
5
8 10
212
4
8
1
4
5
8 10
2
浙江 0广东 50山东 38湖南 29河北 27
23456
3
4
5
67
9
5 7
33
4
5
67
9
5 7
3
河北 27江西 26安徽 25内蒙古 18上海 16
678910 上海 1610
2015/07/02 China National Renewable Energy Centre 20
Biomass energygy
Total 25 million tceTotal 25 million tce Power capacity – 8.5GW
Agro-residue 3.4GW Municipal solid waste
2.1GW Bagasse 1.7GW Biogas 0.3GW
Gas – 1.5 billion cubic metersB i tt / ll t 6 illi Briquette / pellet – 6 million tons
Bio-ethanol: 2.1 million tons Bio-diesel: 500,000 tons
2015/07/02 21China National Renewable Energy Centre
Ratio of the non-fossil fuel power in the ppower system ( Year 2014)
–– 13GW 13GW for powerfor power –– Ethanol Ethanol 4 mil tons4 mil tons–– Household Household 50 mil 50 mil bi 6000 lbi 6000 l –– 1010 mil tonsmil tonspp
–– Rich grain Rich grain productionproduction
–– Biodiesel 1 mil Biodiesel 1 mil tonstons
biogas; 6000 large biogas; 6000 large biogas projectbiogas project
–– Total 22 billion mTotal 22 billion m33
10 10 mil tonsmil tons
29China National Renewable Energy Centre2015/07/02
Future energy contribution – baseline?gy
120000
140000 (万吨标煤)
120000
140000 (万吨标煤)(10,000 tce)
80000
100000 生物柴油
生物乙醇
生物质能发电80000
100000 生物柴油
生物乙醇
生物质能发电 Bio-power
Bio-ethanol
Bio-diesel
60000
80000
光热发电
光伏发电
风电
60000
80000
光热发电
光伏发电
风电 wind
PV
CSP
20000
40000 风电
水电
核电20000
40000 风电
水电
核电 Nuclear
hydro
wind
0
2010 2015 2020 2030
0
2010 2015 2020 2030
2015/07/02 China National Renewable Energy Centre 30
Future energy contribution – high penetration?
非化石能源发电非化石能源发电占比91%
80%
90%
100%
14000
16000 Twh
3X62%
60%
70%
10000
12000
27亿
34亿
22% 40%
50%
6000
800027亿
10%
20%
30%
2000
4000
2010 2050 0%0
2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
2010 2050
2015/07/02 31China National Renewable Energy Centre
Summaryy
China establish policy framework to support RE development
Not competitive with fossil-fuel now Ambitious future targets for wind and PV Ambitious future targets for wind and PV Depend on more institutional reform and
technological breakthrough
2015/07/02 China National Renewable Energy Centre 32
Thanks for attention!
33China National Renewable Energy Centre2015/07/02