China: Threat or Opportunity or Both
China: Threat or Opportunity or Both
Feb 10, 2016
China: Threat or Opportunity or Both. China, with Provinces. What We Know Already. 1949: Communist victory; Nationalist defeat PRC vs. ROC 1972: Nixon to China 1979: US-China normalization. What is Taiwan?. China: A Province of China - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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China:Threat or Opportunity or
Both
China, with Provinces
What We Know Already
1949: Communist victory; Nationalist defeat
PRC vs. ROC
1972: Nixon to China
1979: US-China normalization
What is Taiwan?China: A Province of China
US: A part of a united China, united in some undefined way and how that works is up to Taiwan and China as long as it is done peacefully
Taiwan: Taiwan is a part of China
Changes since 1970sTaiwan democracyLee Teng-hui Chen shui-bian Ma Ying-jeou1988-2000 2000-2008 2008--
Chinese Economic Reform• Deng Xiaoping
The Statistics
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/spl/hi/asia_pac/02/chinese_economic_history/html/1998.stm
Shanghai, China
The Dilemma• Economic reform: yes• Political reform: No
• But…
Economic Calls forReform Political reform
Tiananmen Square 1989
June 4, 1989
Bush 41 View
US
USSR PRC
US Congress ViewJackson-Vanik Amendment to Trade Act
of 1974 • “President determines” that a nonmarket economy nation
“denies” or “imposes more than a nominal tax” on those who emigrate or desire to emigrate, then the “products from any nonmarket economy country shall not be eligible to receive nondiscriminatory treatment (normal trade relations)…and the President of the United States shall not conclude any commercial agreement with any such country.”
Most Favored Nation status
Clinton ViewWhat is China?1. Worst human rights violator on
the planet2. Biggest of the BEM
1993: China given a deadline of June 1994 for human rights improvement
The Battle: 1993-94Public and Congressional debateBusiness lobbies ($$$)
vs.
Human Rights lobbies(pressure China)
vs.
Realists (stable relations)
Within Administration
National Economic Council,Dept. of Treasury andCommerce
vs.
State Dept, State Human RightsBureau
vs.
Dept. of Defense, NSC Staff,State Dept. East Asian Bureau
• Threat • Opportunity • Both
China’s Wealth
Mark Selden, Nation, Region and the Global in East Asia: Conflict and Cooperation, The Asia-Pacific Journal: Japan Focus, http://japanfocus.org/-Mark-Selden/3422
South China Sea: OIL
Ian Storey, Conflict in the South China Sea: China’s Relations with Vietnam and the Philippines, The Asia-Pacific Journal: Japan Focus, http://www.japanfocus.org/-ian-storey/2734
Source: The Economist: www.economist.com/node/17601487
From: Annual Report to CongressMilitary Power of the People’s Republic of China 2009
(http://www.defenselink.mil/pubs/pdfs/China_Military_Power_Report_2009.pdf. pp 24-5
The Future1. China as a regional rival2. China as a peer competitor
– A rival with a functioning economy3. China as an ideological rival
– Liberal-democracy vs. Soft Authoritarianism
4. Integrating China into the world and taming it– Responsible stakeholder
5. China anti-hegemony: “peaceful rise”
But…Economic InterdependenceChinese Trade (2010)From Chinese Ministry of Commerce 2009-2010, http://english.mofcom.gov.cn/aarticle/statistic/ie/200901/20090105999698.html
US Trade (2010)From US Census Bureau data; chart from http://www.globalization101.org/a-snapshot-of-us-trade/
Mutual Assured Bankruptcy?Who owns the Debt 2011? Federal Reserve information
1. US Federal Reserve and other Government Financial Entities2. Other Investors/Savings Bonds3. China4. Japan5. Pension Funds6. Money Market Funds/Mutual Funds7. State and Local Governments in US8. UK9. Banks10.Insurance Companies11.OPEC nations12.Brazil13.Caribbean nations14.Hong Kong15.Canada
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