China threat discourse in the United States By Julie Lagacé & Boyan Ivanov.

China threat China threat discourse in the discourse in the United StatesUnited States

ByByJulie Lagacé Julie Lagacé

&&Boyan IvanovBoyan Ivanov

PremisePremise Consumption and Consumption and

manufacturing are the manufacturing are the drivers that create drivers that create wealthwealth

Rise in monetary Rise in monetary resources has translated resources has translated into means for carrying into means for carrying out different policies.out different policies.

Due to china’s sensitive political Due to china’s sensitive political situation, The US has situation, The US has developed a “China threat Discourse”developed a “China threat Discourse”

Economic ThreatsEconomic Threats

PPP of $7.262 trillion PPP of $7.262 trillion 60% 60% of USof US

Building a superpower status: Building a superpower status: Three Gorges Dam, Shanghai Three Gorges Dam, Shanghai Finance center, Olympic Finance center, Olympic Games 2008 and the space Games 2008 and the space program.program.

Trade imbalance and Trade imbalance and revaluationrevaluation

Policymakers support the Policymakers support the major treasury reserves of major treasury reserves of China to boost US China to boost US consumption through low consumption through low interest rates.interest rates.

Causal relationship: Causal relationship: Relative exchange rates Relative exchange rates with neighbors with neighbors

China actually helped China actually helped smooth the 1997 crisis smooth the 1997 crisis with its pegwith its peg

Energy issuesEnergy issues China’s natural appetite for energy China’s natural appetite for energy

leads it to secure reserves of many leads it to secure reserves of many scarce energy sources scarce energy sources

Oil and gas are strategic assets Oil and gas are strategic assets highly valued by policymakers.highly valued by policymakers.

CNOOC had to withdraw its bid for CNOOC had to withdraw its bid for UNOCAL.UNOCAL.

* Real reason: Lobbyism and fear* Real reason: Lobbyism and fear

Gas in the East China SeaGas in the East China SeaSino-Japanese conflictSino-Japanese conflict

Both countries have Both countries have territorial claimsterritorial claims

Both are very dependant Both are very dependant on energy importson energy imports

Both China and Japan Both China and Japan are ready to go till the are ready to go till the endend

Joint Statement of U.S.-Joint Statement of U.S.-Japan Security makes it Japan Security makes it a hot issuea hot issue

Political ThreatsPolitical Threats Taiwan is the main political issueTaiwan is the main political issue Political recognition of Beijing in 1979Political recognition of Beijing in 1979 Still, strong support for Taiwan Still, strong support for Taiwan

indicates American need to indicates American need to counterweight PRC in case of conflictcounterweight PRC in case of conflict

Joint agreement declaring Taiwan to Joint agreement declaring Taiwan to be a mutual security concern under be a mutual security concern under U.S.-Japan Security Alliance. U.S.-Japan Security Alliance.

Military issueMilitary issue

Aggregate military spending, ratio of Aggregate military spending, ratio of GDP and per capita military GDP and per capita military spending spending lower than other lower than other advanced countries. advanced countries.

Estimates place China's military Estimates place China's military spending from 2 to 3 times the spending from 2 to 3 times the official budget official budget

Modernization of the Modernization of the army is due to:army is due to:

1.1. Increase in the salaries Increase in the salaries of the military of the military personnelpersonnel

2.2. Military reform (hire Military reform (hire civilians)civilians)

3.3. Moderate increases in Moderate increases in weaponry weaponry

Sales of weapons and Sales of weapons and cooperationcooperation

Russia’s biggest client since 1992Russia’s biggest client since 1992 Very opposed to US invasion of Very opposed to US invasion of

Afghanistan and IraqAfghanistan and Iraq Peace mission 2005: full scale Peace mission 2005: full scale

military cooperation with many ex-military cooperation with many ex-soviet states and Indiasoviet states and India

Tendency towards a multipolar Tendency towards a multipolar worldworld

PRC is consolidating very important PRC is consolidating very important political capital through its arms political capital through its arms sales sales

Accept pariah states as clients and Accept pariah states as clients and conduct deals in secretive waysconduct deals in secretive ways

Transfers and cooperation with Iran, Transfers and cooperation with Iran, Pakistan and North KoreaPakistan and North Korea

Sales of ballistic missiles to SyriaSales of ballistic missiles to Syria Rumsfeld and the establishment’s Rumsfeld and the establishment’s

blind policiesblind policies

US PropagandaUS Propaganda

Arguments against ChinaArguments against China

CorruptionCorruption Human Rights recordHuman Rights record

CorruptionCorruption

Increased with the Economic Increased with the Economic Reforms of the late 1970’s: End of Reforms of the late 1970’s: End of China’s isolation to the worldChina’s isolation to the world

smuggling, speculation, fraud, smuggling, speculation, fraud, embezzlement, nepotism and briberyembezzlement, nepotism and bribery

Something had to be Something had to be done…done…

Corruption is Corruption is endangering CCP’s endangering CCP’s survivalsurvival

1986: Campaign 1986: Campaign against corruption: against corruption: 6 different measures 6 different measures are implementedare implemented

Perpetrators Perpetrators punishments are punishments are very severevery severe

Other measures taken in Other measures taken in late 1980’slate 1980’s

Younger administration of the CCPYounger administration of the CCP Removal of the dual-pricing systemRemoval of the dual-pricing system Implementation of the Ministry of SupervisionImplementation of the Ministry of Supervision various measures in order to curb corruption various measures in order to curb corruption

of retired cadres and corruption in the army, of retired cadres and corruption in the army, to halt unauthorized public spending and to halt unauthorized public spending and unnecessary conferences and banquets. unnecessary conferences and banquets.

economic crime reporting centre and hotlines economic crime reporting centre and hotlines

Corruption is still very Corruption is still very presentpresent Why? China is a huge country: thousands of Why? China is a huge country: thousands of

government officials are hard to control!government officials are hard to control!

Human RightsHuman Rights

Numerous practices in China are Numerous practices in China are regarded as unethical and immoral regarded as unethical and immoral by the Americans by the Americans

Main CriticismMain Criticism

lack of freedom in the choice of lack of freedom in the choice of religion religion

family planning and the right of family planning and the right of women women

the treatment of prisoners the treatment of prisoners quasi non existence of freedom of quasi non existence of freedom of

speech and freedom of press speech and freedom of press the treatment of workers the treatment of workers

ConclusionConclusion

Is China a threat?Is China a threat?