China in Africa and prospects for accountable development Giles Mohan, The Open University DSA Annual Conference Session on Effective States and Inclusive.

China in Africa and prospects for accountable development

Giles Mohan, The Open University

DSA Annual Conference Session on Effective States and Inclusive Development

London, 3rd November 2012

Research questions

What are the emerging and potential impacts of China in Africa on the interconnected processes of:

(a) more effective and accountable forms of governance for development, and

(b) elite commitment to development?

Full paper available:

http://www.effective-states.org/publications/workingpapers/workingpaper12.htm

Existing takes on China-Africa politics

• Destructive of ‘good governance’

• Focus on African states/regime-types

• China’s flexibility and pragmatism

Building blocks: Channels and regimes

• Pariah states• Iliberal regimes

and weak democracies

• Democratic countries with diversified economies

Kaplinsky’s Asian Drivers framework

Channel Impacts

Complementary Competitive

Direct Indirect Direct Indirect

Trade

Investment

Aid

Governance

Migrants

Environment

Alden’s schema of the African

state

Channel Impacts by state type

Pariah states(e.g. Sudan)

Illiberal regimes and weak democracies(e.g. Angola)

Democratic countries with diversified economies(e.g. Ghana)

Direct Indirect Direct Indirect Direct Indirect

Trade Cheaper manufactures; Oil revenue

Unknown Cheaper manufactures; Oil revenue

Unknown Cheaper manufactures; Mineral revenue; Textile and construction firms feeling competition

Dutch Disease effects from recent oil discovery

Investment Infrastructure investment;

Possibly crowding in other Asian FDI

Infrastructure investment;Limited local employment

Unknown Infrastructure investment (e.g. Bui, Kpone);Significant local employment

International donors using Chinese firms

Aid Social and economic infrastructure;Some vanity projects

‘Buys’ support for China in multilateral forums

Social and economic infrastructure;Some vanity projects

‘Buys’ support for China in multilateral forums

Social and economic infrastructure;Some vanity projects

‘Buys’ support for China in multilateral forums DAC donors concerned about lack of Chinese engagement

Governance Elite brokerageInvolvement in internal conflicts

International backlash over Darfur

Elite brokerageExacerbates lack of transparency

China supportive of EITI

Elite brokerageLimited impactCivil society accommodating rather than confrontational

INGOs and BWIs concerned about resource curse

Migrants Employment creationSome politicisation and targeting of migrants

Limited impact Employment creationSome politicisation of migrant presence

Limited impact Employment creation;No major social tensions

Limited impact

Disaggregating flows

State-backed and large private companies – managerial and professional staff in urban HQs who have to mix, especially as move to pursue private sector contracts. Some stay and establish their own companies.

Independent entrepreneurs – often well educated from highly developed areas of China. Much focus on traders but often they are actually agents of companies in China. Presence and potential in manufacturing needs to be recognised.

Angola: Hybrid and relational state spaces

China Investment Fund

Gabinete de Reconstrução

Nacional

88 Queensway, Hong Kong

‘State’ agency

• Hybrid and shadowy assemblages of state and non-state actors

• States as emergent and disaggregated processes

• Transnational networks interpolate with territorial states “local, national and transnational actors

forge and remake the state through processes of negotiation, contestation and bricolage” (Hagmann & Peclard 2010: 544)

Synthesis and conclusionElites and inclusion• Cements but does not transform patrimonialism in negative ways• Effective development for some• Weak regulatory environment can exacerbate negative impacts

Legitimacy and policy space• Enhances regime legitimacy• Infrastructures of governance potentially positive • Opens up limited policy space