CHINA DECLARES ONE CHILD POLICY

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CHINA DECLARES ONE CHILD POLICYTHE DAILY NEWSwww.dailynews.com11 November 1979

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BackgroundMAO the more people we have, the stronger we are1950-1970 high population growth, Malthusian trap1979 One-Child Policy implementedNumber of prevented births ranges from 200 to 400 million Chinese Population Growth

ExemptionsHans who live in Rural areas can have second child if first born is girl or disabled (1.5 child policy)Ethnic minorities are exemptOriginally, If both parents were only children, they can have two childrenIn 2013, if only one parent was an only child, the couple can have two childrenAlmost 35.9% of Chinas population is currently subject to the one-child restriction

BENEFITS

BenefitsDecline in fertility rate led to:

Economic growth: Without the policy, china wouldnt have grown at 8% annually

Lower poverty: Lifted 150 million people out of poverty

Resources: Released 24% more resources for the family and national investment

Education : Generated more education opportunities per child

BenefitsDemographic dividend:working-age proportion of the population grows more rapidly than the general population this lowered the dependence ratio1 and caused economic growth

1 ratio of elders and children that depend on the worker Demographic Dividend

19822000 children dependence ratio fell from 54% to 22% (after 1982)ISSUES

Gender ImbalanceIn 2000, the ratio was 120 boys/100 girls in China, which is way beyond the biologically stable ratio of 105.Reports state there will be 30 million more men than women in 2020, making it hard for men to find wivesRural teenage girls migrate to work as factory workers and domestic helpers in the urban areas, making the problem more acute

Gender ImbalanceSon preference also violates girls human rights:

Abortion: Sex selective abortion is illegal, but Chinese couples do it anyway

Infanticide: parents may commit infanticide of the daughter to get a chance of having a son instead

Abandonment: There are an estimated one million orphans in China, nearly all of them being girls

Ageing Population4-2-1 Problem

Ageing PopulationIn the future, there will be a small working force supporting a large elderly populationby 2040, more than of chinas population will be over 60. This figure is larger than the population of France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the United Kingdom combined.this demonstrates how the demographic dividend reverses over time, as the demographic structure follows a rat swallowed by a snake pattern

Ageing Population

Ageing Population

Labor Supply ShortageAs the population ages, the labor force becomes smaller causing shortagesLewis Turning Point: point at which a country moves from a surplus of low-cost workers to a labor shortage economy.The LTP appeared in China in 2004The fall in fertility rates due to OCP has decreased the supply of new workers and increased labor costs in China

Enforcement Birth Tourism: children born abroad are not covered by the one-child policyHong Kong Passport offers more advantages / imposing restrictions on these births by lowering quotas and raising finesUSIn 2010, about 5,000 Chinese children were born in US for this purpose, and the number has been increasing

Forced Abortion:If this practice is illegal, why does it happen?

Forced Abortion

Solution F Two-Child PolicyWHY?increase the extent of voluntary compliancemore kids improve the demographic structure increase future labor supply2 children people will prefer boy and girl improve gender imbalance problem