China challenge

THE CHINA CHALLENGE

A DISCUSSION LED BY DONALD C. MENZEL

THOMAS J. CHRISTENSEN

THREAT ?

OR

RESPONSIBLE GLOBAL STAKEHOLDER ?

“Let China sleep, for when China wakes, she will shake the world.”—Napoleon Bonaparte

“When great powers rise, there is often real trouble.” – Thomas Christensen

CONTAINMENT . . .

OR . . .

ENGAGEMENT?

U.S.-CHINA RELATIONS

• WW II• RED CHINA & MAO• POST MAO – A RISING CHINA• XI JINPING ERA – BUILDING A GLOBAL MILITARY?

http://www.wsj.com/articles/president-xi-jinpings-most-dangerous-venture-yet-remaking-chinas-military-1461608795

SINO-AMERICAN CONFLICT• IS CHINA-USA CONFLICT INEVITABLE? OR EVEN LIKELY? POSSIBLE?

• AVOIDING THIS CONFLICT WILL REQUIRE A STRONG U.S. PRESENCE IN ASIA COMBINED WITH DEFT DIPLOMACY TO ASSURE CHINA THAT THE U.S. SEEKS NEITHER TO HALT CHINA’S RISE ON THE GLOBAL STAGE NOR TO FOMENT DOMESTIC INSTABILITY WITHIN CHINA ITSELF.

“For 50 years, our policy was to fence in the Soviet Union while its own internal contradictions undermined it. For thirty years, our policy has been to draw out the People’s Republic of China. As a result, the China of today is simply not the Soviet Union of the late 1940s.” –Robert B. Zoellick, Deputy Secretary of State, New York City, September 21, 2005

Zoellick was the President of the World Bank Group from 2007-12. He served in President George W. Bush's cabinet as U.S. Trade Representative from 2001 to 2005 and as Deputy Secretary of State from 2005 to 2006.

China has major incentives to avoid unnecessary conflict, and after decades of a global Cold War, the United States government is highly experienced in the practice of coercive diplomacy. But no government has experience tackling the least appreciated challenge: persuading a uniquely large developing country with enormous domestic challenges and a historical chip on its national shoulder to cooperate actively with the international community.

Coercive diplomacy is the diplomacy of threats. Rather than relying on negotiation, diplomats will sometimes threaten adverse consequences if a demand is not met. Sometimes this works; at other times, it does not.

AN IMPOLSION WAITING TO HAPPEN IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA?

Chinese soldiers in the Spratly Islands, February 2016. 

"Does the United States mean freedom of navigation enjoyed by ordinary ships in line with international law or freedom of intrusion by U.S. military planes and vessels?" she said."The United States has repeatedly questioned China's intentions, but will the U.S. explain its real motive in stoking tensions and increasing military presence in the area?" Hua said.

Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying

U.S. military armored personnel carriers take their positions during the 11-day joint US-Philippines military exercise dubbed "Balikatan 2016" (Shoulder-To-Shoulder 2016) Thursday, April 14, 2016 at Crow Valley, Tarlac province north of Manila, Philippines. U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter arrived in the country Wednesday for talks with President Benigno Aquino III and other top defense and military officials and to visit two military camps which are being utilized for the exercise.(AP Photo/Bullit Marquez)

SHAPING CHINA’S CHOICES“China itself lacks any strategically important allies. For all its destabilizing behavior, North Korea is hardly a ‘pole,’ yet it is the closest thing that China has to an ally in the western Pacific.” – Thomas Christensen

Pivot to Asia . . .

Enjoying superior power is preferable to the alternatives, but it is no guarantor of peace.

When the other great powers seek cooperation from China on international security and humanitarian, economic, and environmental problems, China can undercut the efforts without even intentionally doing so. It is in this sense that China is too big to fail to pull its weight on global governance.

QUESTION

• HOW DO WE PERSUADE A LARGE BUT STILL DEVELOPING COUNTRY WITH A NATIONALIST CHIP ON ITS SHOULDER TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM? BECAUSE THAT SYSTEM IS NOW SO TIGHTLY INTEGRATED AFTER DECADES OF GLOBALIZATION, A MAJOR PERTURBATION ANYWHERE CAN AFFECT US ALL.

THE ANSWER . . . A STRATEGY THAT

• COMBINES TWO ELEMENTS NOT NORMALLY ASSOCIATED WITH EACH OTHER• A VERY STRONG U.S. MILITARY PRESENCE IN EAST ASIA WITH• A CONSISTENT DIPLOMATIC POSTURE THAT INVITES CHINA TO PARTICIPATE IN

REGIONAL AND GLOBAL GOVERNANCE

Getting China’s foreign policy to be assertive without being aggressive may be the greatest challenge facing the next few generations of U.S. diplomats.

Many Chinese nationalists treat with suspicion American advice about how to improve China’s foreign policy and reform its domestic governance. They view the ‘responsible stakeholder’ concept as an unfair burden on China .

Chinese postcolonial nationalism sees the U.S. policy to spread democracy as a ploy to weaken countries rather than strengthen them.

HOW CHINA CAN DEFEAT AMERICA

YAN XUETONG

The country that displays more humane authority will win—ancient Chinese philosopher

China’s quest to enhance its world leadership status and America’s effort to maintain its present position is a zero-sum game. It is the battle for people’s hearts and minds that will determine who eventually prevails. And, as China’s ancient philosophers predicted, the country that displays more humane authority will win.

DO YOU AGREE? DISAGREE?

Get an iPAD copy of my new multitouch e-book "The NEW China" at itunes:

https://itunes.apple.com/us/book/the-new-china/id686948050?mt=11

Text only version available for desktops and other tablets at Smashwords: 

https://www.smashwords.com/books/view/352367