China and Climate Politics To what extent can China’s position in international climate negotiations be explained through classical realism and neoliberal institutionalism? Research paper Paul-Josse Zaman (10674667) The Rise of China in International Relations Word count: 4876 28/01/2015 1
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China and Climate Politics
To what extent can China’s position in international climate negotiations be
explained through classical realism and neoliberal institutionalism?
Research paper
Paul-Josse Zaman (10674667)
The Rise of China in International Relations
Word count: 4876
28/01/2015
1
Introduction
In an increasingly globalized world climate change
is becoming an ever-pressing matter. A 2007 report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change states that
climate changes threatens to destabilize ecosystems,
weaken food security and precipitate severe water
shortages (IPCC, 2007). Because of this and the effects
of globalization, environmental issues have become
increasingly prominent on the international agenda over
the last fifty years. As environmental problems transcend
national boundaries, they come to be a feature of
international politics. This situation is rendered all
the more unsustainable by the rise of new pollutants,
like China and India (Vogler, 2011, p. 348).
China has experienced a remarkable period of
economic high growth over the last decades. Even though
this is generally seen as a good thing, the rapid
2
economic development also has its downside. In recent
years a serious degradation of the environment took place
in China (Wang, 2007). China is the biggest emitter of
carbon emissions in the world. Emissions transcend
national boundaries, which makes this a global problem.
However, China has been very reluctant to sign treaties
or make any form of concessions. Therefore I will analyze
the position of China in international climate politics
through various theoretical frameworks.
In order to explain the position of China two
theories are used: classical realism and neoliberal
institutionalism. The way I would like to conduct my
research has led to the following research question: To
what extent can China’s position in climate negotiations be explained through
classical realism and neoliberal institutionalism?
I will use the variable treaties to give my research
more focus. I will first map the climate treaties and
earlier compliances by China. I will focus on the Kyoto
protocol and the Copenhagen summit. Afterwards I will
analyze them through a realist and neoliberal
institutionalist perspective. However, before I can
3
answer my research question it must first be identified
what the effects are of the Chinese position to
international climate negotiations. Therefore a sub-
question needs to be answered first: What are the effects of the
Chinese position on climate negotiations? In this sub-question
there is an independent and a dependent variable. The
independent variable is the Chinese position in climate
negotiations, the dependent variable are the effects.
After answering this sub-question and examining the
variables I can proceed to answer my general research
question. The hypothesis to my research question is: the
current position of China in international climate
negotiations is more of a puzzle for neoliberal
institutionalism than for classical realism.
In order to answer this question I have divided this
article in various sections. Firstly I will provide a
description of China’s position in the area of climate
politics. I will also look at the effects of china’s
position on international climate negotiations.
Afterwards I’ll examine the effects, and thirdly I will
give a brief description of the theoretical framework of
4
classical realism and neoliberal institutionalism. I will
apply these theories to climate treaties, in particular
to the Kyoto protocol and the Copenhagen protocol and the
effect of these treaties.
In this article I argue that the current position of
China in international climate negotiations is more of a
puzzle for neoliberal institutionalism than for classical
realism. This is because climate negotiations take the
form of a zero-sum game. Most countries will pursue
relative gains. The most important effect of China’s
position on international climate negotiations is that
they are hindering a solid agreement, but they do however
have the capacity to contribute in knowledge and
innovative factors. But let’s first move to an analysis
of China’s position in climate negotiations.
China’s position in international climate politics
The urgency of climate change has become
increasingly pressing over the last fifty years. Rising
5
temperatures, mountain floods, droughts and typhoons have
hit the land and are an ominous sign of climate change
(NDRC, 2013). New polluting actors in the environmental
sphere have led to the over-use of resources and
increased emissions of effluents and waste gases. China,
being the biggest emitter, has an annual average of 24%
of the world’s carbon emissions. Over 100.000 square
kilometers of China’s cultivated land is polluted and
they produce over 300 million tons of waste per year
(PBL, 2007). The second and third biggest emitters are
the United States and the European Union.
However, China’s willingness to agree a binding
carbon emissions treaty remains a critical question for
the international community, as China is extremely
reluctant to sign treaties. (Gong, 2011). According to a
White Paper by the National Development and Reform
Commission of China, the rise of carbon emissions is
inevitable and goes hand in hand with economic rise
(2013). China’s economic growth and industrial
development is indeed breathtakingly rapid which is
connected to persistent environmental degradation and
6
rising pollution (Gong, 2011). In fact, the only treaty
that the People’s Republic of China has ratified is the
Kyoto Protocol. However, under the Kyoto Protocol, China
was classified as a non-Annex I country, meaning that it
is still considered a developing nation. So, like the
other distinct non-Annex I countries, China was not
forced to cut emissions or set emissions caps on any
greenhouse gases. This was likely a vital factor in
signing the treaty for China. To recapitulate, the UN-
rights allow them to free ride without having to bind to
any agreement. I will elaborate more on the Kyoto
protocol in a later section of this paper.
So what is China’s position in the issue area of
climate politics? Even though China is at this point the
biggest emitter of carbon emissions, it is very reluctant
to cut back on emissions. The argument made by officials
of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is: “We are a
developing country. You polluted when you where
developing, we have the right to do the same”. China, and
other Less-Developed Countries, argue that the current
level of Greenhouse Gases are overwhelmingly due to
7
emissions made by now developed countries, and that
forcing the PRC to truncate their growth to pay for the
emissions of the first world is unfair. (Gong, 2011).
Moreover the PRC officials make the argument of the
per capita emissions. Because the People’s Republic of
China is a vast country with over 1.3 billion
inhabitants, the average per capita emission is lower
than that of other countries. Chinese officials state
that China is the world’s largest developing country with
a large population. This is also the reason China is
indexed as a non-Annex I country. Chinese officials are
keen to point out the difference in per capita emissions
between developed and developing countries. They often
mention the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change, which refers to assigning developed
countries the responsibility to take the lead in
combating climate change and the adverse effect thereof
(United Nations, 1992). Chinese officials even state
that, in former times, capitalist countries were
responsible and socialist or communist countries did not
contribute to the pollution of the earth (NDRC, 2013).
8
However, since the mid-2000s there has been a
growing public concern of domestic pollution and energy
security in China. The inhabitants of China have grown
more aware of climate change. Since 2012, China has
suffered from frequent extreme weather conditions,
mountain floods, landslides, typhoons and droughts (NDRC,
2013). These factors have led to a change in the mindset
of domestic political elite. The gap between the domestic
environment norm and the global environment norm has
shrunk in size over the last few years (Foot & Walter,
2013). That is why China is promoting green technologies
and is focusing on a low-carbon emission development more
and more. At the 18th Communist Party of China (CPC)
National Congress it was decided that is essential to
raise ecological awareness and focus on green, cyclical
and low carbon development (NDRC, 2013). After the CPC’s
national congress, China is more willing to commit itself
to binding climate arrangements, like the most recent
agreement between the United States and China, in which
China promised to reduce carbon oxide emission in 2030.
President Xi Jin Ping set the goal for emissions to fall
9
after 2030 (The Guardian, 2014). The goal for emissions
to fall after 2030 is however criticized. Professor Tao
Wang from the Tsinghua-Carnegie center for Global policy
argues that this target is not ambitious enough.
Stabilizing emissions only by 2030 means that the amount
of carbon emissions will raise until 2030, resulting in
enormous climate damage (The Guardian, 2014).
The effects of China’s position on international climate
negotiations
Now that a little more insight on China’s position
in international climate negotiations is acquired, I will
move to analyzing the effects of China’s position on
international climate negotiations. In this paragraph the
sub-question what are the effects of the Chinese position on climate
negotiations will be answered. I will analyze distinct
perspectives from distinct authors.
China has been part of international climate
negotiations as from the first summits in 1990. However,
according to historical research by Fuzuo Wu (2013) China
10
has, for a long period of time, consistently blocked
climate negotiations. China rejected to make any
commitments to binding emission cuts (Wu, 2013).
According to Wu, China took this position because they
think that developed countries should take the lead in
fighting climate change and provide help to developing
countries. Another argument is that, in order to address
climate change, all must obey the principal of common but
differentiated responsibilities: A general principle of
equity. However, China has shown a more compromising
stance over the last years. This was a very clever thing
to do, because of this China has maintained its unity
with the G-77, which in turn has facilitated China’s
bargaining power with developed countries (Wu, 2013).
China used this tactic of compromise and reservation very
effectively to extract concessions from developed
countries, in particular the United State. Concessions
like technological and financials assistance. However, Wu
finds it unlikely that China will accept any binding
emissions cut commitments in international climate change
negotiations in the short and medium terms. Nonetheless he
11
argues that ‘it is reasonable to conclude that China will
strongly influence the course of future international
climate change negotiations’ (Wu, 2013).
It is exactly because of this influence that I will
analyze the effects of China’s position on climate
negotiations. But even though China has indeed hindered
climate negotiations, there is also a potential for
contribution from China. Jost Wübbeke (Wübbeke, 2013)
argues that China is developing a specialized expert
knowledge on climate change. A tiny, but extremely
specialized research community of institutes and
universities has formed around Chinese policy-making
institutions. These climate experts are important actors
to the Chinese domestic process of policy making.
They can also provide in valuable knowledge for the
international climate community. Chinese leaders often
ask advice to these expert institutions and universities
and draw on their substantive conclusions (ibid.). The
Chinese expert community can influence policy making by
raising awareness of climate vulnerability with
scientific research and facts. They can contribute to
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international climate negotiations by helping define
international emission targets. Even though the
community of influential experts is rather small, they
have proven to be of value to the Chinese officials. The
small expert community had a significant impact on
climate policy in China; The National Program on
Addressing Climate Change (NPACC) draws on the scientific
evidence by the research community. The flux lies now in
distributing the climate knowledge to the international
community.
Another positive effect of China’s position in
international climate negotiations might be the
contribution to an innovative policy. ‘Geo-engineering’
technologies could decrease some of the impacts of global
warming by reducing absorption of solar energy. Another
form of geo-engineering is by using other innovative
techniques to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere
(Edney & Symons , 2013). Chinese scientist and policy
makers are keenly aware of the potential benefits of geo-
engineering. However there are many risks and downsides
to geo-engineering. Edney& Symons (2013) researched the
13
matter of geo-engineering in China: ‘some western
scholars have expressed concern that China may already be
working on unilateral research. Although we cannot
discount this possibility, we have found no evidence
supporting this contention [.]. While there are reasons
to fear the possibility of future unilateral action by
China, it seems likely that international regulatory and
research efforts in which the Chinese state and Chinese
scientists are recruited as equal partners offer the best
path to fore- stall such undesirable outcomes’
So China might be in a very early stage of research,
one still should remain cautious for the effects.
Nonetheless, íf China decided to cooperate its research
might be beneficial to global search to finding a
solution for climate problems.
It is important to look at the way the interaction
works both ways between China and the involved parties in
international climate negotiations. Miriam Schroeder
investigated in what way the NGO cooperation can
influence the Chinese stance on climate change politics
(Schroeder, 2008). By using the constructivist ‘spiral
14
model’ to the field of environmental politics she
analyzed the roles and impacts of different actors in
several distinct phases of norm internalization and NGO
campaigns in China. Schroeder argues that NGO’s have an
influence on Chinese climate policies. But the matter of
norm internalization cannot be completely affirmed.
Schroeder states that the NGO’s should not be too
pressing in their methods, but that certain matters of
sharing information are more effective in changing
Chinese climate policies (ibid).
To recapitulate; the answer to the question what the
effects are of China’s position on climate negotiations
consists of multiple parts. Wübke and Edny&Symons (2013)
argue that China’s position might have some beneficial
effects on the negotiations. China has a specialized
knowledge community and is conducting research to geo-
engineering. Both types of knowledge might be beneficial,
but are in very preliminary stages. Furthermore China
still has a very reserved position in climate
negotiations, and refuses to bind to short term and
medium term commitments. With this reluctant position
15
China is hindering climate negotiations. However, China
has made some careful compromises in exchange for
concessions like technological and financial assistance.
Theoretical framework
This being said, it is essential to analyze China’s
position from several theoretical approaches. I will
first look into the issue area and China’s stance from a
classical realist and neo-liberal institutionalist
perspective. I will briefly elaborate on the theories and
then apply them to the issue area of climate treaties and
agreements.
Classical Realism
In the classical realist perspective the most
important actors are states. These states exist in a
system in which there is no governing actor that controls
them. Because of the lack of a governing actor, the
states will seek self-reliance and will aim to maximize
power and security (Mearsheimer, 2002). Power and
security are key words in classical realism. In the
classical realist school, cooperation is seen as
16
difficult, if not impossible. This is because of the
states’ endeavor for power and security. In international
cooperation the nations will go for their own gains, the
so-called relative gain (Levy, 2013). A relative gain is
when a decision will only contribute to the relevant
state, and none of the other involved parties. The
relative gain is related to the zero-sum game, which
states that if one party gains some, the other will lose
some. The school of realism can be, amongst others,
divided in classical realism and modern (neo) realism.
Essentially classical realism has a focus on the
political leaders and the way they act based on emotions
(Morgenthau, 1948). Neorealism has a more structural
perspective with a focus on structural state decisions.
But even though the focus of these sub-theories might be
different, the general idea is the same: sovereign states
act rational to increase security and power in an
anarchical state system (Levy, 2013; Morgenthau, 1966).
The foreign policy of states is focused on defending the
country’s interests and it’s people according to realism.
Another important matter is that classical realism sees
17
states as unequal. Some states are more powerful than
others, which creates a power hierarchy between large and
small states. An important aspect of the classical
realist state system is that countries will never be able
to trust each other fully. Every nation pursues its own
interests, which makes international agreements very
that actors can work together towards a mutual goal, the
harmony of interests. The general interest strokes with
the general idea of the other actors’ interests.
Cooperation is the way to go for liberalists;
international actors only reach their goals through
cooperation. Unlike realism, the liberalist perspective
is a positive-sum game. This means that there are
absolute gains where all actors can gain interest out of
an interaction. For this paper the liberalist theory
18
neoliberal institutionalism is used. Neoliberal
institutionalism focuses on values of order, liberty and
justice (Dunne, 2011). The institutions’ job is to
maintain and protect these values. Obviously,
institutions are key actors in neoliberal
institutionalism. Neoliberal institutionalism agrees to a
certain extent with realists that states are important
and that they will pursue only their own interests. But
they argue that pursuing your own interests does not have
to hinder cooperation (Keohane, 1984). Institutions and
norms facilitate international cooperation by converging
preference. I will use these institutional factors and
norms to analyze certain climate treaties.
Treaties
In this empirical section I will analyze certain
factors of earlier treaties and agreements made in
international climate negotiations. I will do this
through neoclassical realism and (neo) liberal
institutionalist’ perspectives. The treaties and summits
19
I will look at are mostly part of the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
The first climate treaty I will analyze is the Kyoto
Protocol, dating from 1997. In this protocol, the developed
countries agreed on reducing the emissions of several
gases by average of 5.2% in comparison with 1990. However
the reduction percentages differed per country, depending
on economic capacity. Economically weaker countries had a
lower reduction percentage.
The Kyoto protocol included that the participating
countries could transfer their obligatory reduction to
measures in other countries abroad. Some measures to
reduce carbon emissions are cheaper to realize in other
countries. Moreover participating nations could sell or
buy emission rights of other countries. By doing this the
purchasing countries can avoid transgressing the rules
and their set reduction goals. The local forests in a
country also count as reduction (United Nations, 1992).
The treaty was ratified in 2002 by the European
Union. However the United States never ratified the Kyoto
20
protocol. The US senate claimed to be afraid for economic
damage to the American economy. The administration of
George W. Bush the 2nd therefore did not ratify the Kyoto
protocol.
Now that we took a general look at the Kyoto
protocol, I’d like to put a more in-depth analysis on
several aspects: the fact that the Kyoto protocol
concerns only developed countries, the selling of
emission rights, and the non-ratification of the United
States.
The fact that the Kyoto protocol only concerns
developed countries was mentioned earlier in this paper.
A distinction is made between Annex I and non-Annex I
countries. The idea is that the now developed countries
emitted a lot in earlier history when they where still
developing. Therefore the developed countries now have a
leading role in fighting climate change and the
developing countries still have the right to emit more.
This is the principle of common but differentiated.
21
This is a typical realist perspective. China argues
that it is still a developing country. It has the same
right to develop into a wealthy industrialized country as
Western countries did before. The way China sees it,
investing in ecology equals less economic growth. If the
economic growth decreases, so will China’s competitors
position. China will do anything in its power to avoid
making any concession concerning their growing economy
and they will pursue their economic growth. In doing so,
the Chinese aim for relative gains. As long as China does
not have to make concessions and can continue its
economic growth. In this situation we speak of a zero-sum
game.
If we look at this matter from a neoliberal
institutionalist it would not make sense to make a
distinction between developed countries and developing
countries. It is in all the countries best interest to
work together, developed or developing country. This is
because climate problems are not bound to one singular
country but transcend national boundaries. All the
countries should contribute their part, however the
22
amount of contribution can depend on the size and economy
of a country.
Secondly, there is the matter of trade in emission
rights. If we analyze this matter through realism we can
conclude that treaties are no guarantee for a better
climate. Countries will try and sell and buy emissions as
much as they can. Reasoned out of a classical realist
perspective, without global governance, each state
including China will pursue its own preferences.
From a neoliberal institutionalist perspective the
international climate agreements are a positive sum game,
with absolute gains for everyone. As opposed to classical
realism, in which all the countries would go for relative
gains thus creating a zero-sum game. In a neoliberal
perspective the trading in emissions can be beneficial,
but it should be regulated strictly. By uniting in
several institutions, either regional or international,
it becomes less costly and thus more plausible for
distinct countries to reach a mutual goal. The response
at the international level is to attempt to provide
global environmental governance. In a system of sovereign
23
states this involves international cooperation (Vogler,
2011, p. 349).
Thirdly, there is the United States, which refuted
to ratify the Kyoto protocol. The fact that the United
States refused to sign the treaty brings the negotiations
in a rather peculiar situation. The Bush-administration’s
main point for not signing the treaty was the fear of
damage to the American economy. But the second point was
that China was classified as a non-Annex 1 country and
that it did not have to contribute anything.
Again, here the aspect of an anarchic state system
comes up. As environmental problems transcend national
boundaries, they come to be a feature of international
politics, with as a result countries trying to free ride.
Because there is no governing entity to regulate rules on
the field of climate problems, these countries cannot be
forced to join or be punished if they don’t. Because the
Chinese didn’t have to do any concessions, the U.S.
feared it would lose economic ground to China and
therefore did not ratify the protocol.
24
However, the same boundary-transcending aspect that
makes an anarchical state system plausible also makes it
a collective action problem. In this case all countries
would benefit from the solving of climate problems, but
the associated cost makes it implausible that one state
can or will solve it all alone. A more plausible solution
is to handle it as a collective action of which the cost
is shared by multiple nations. The key to this is a
governing institution. The most obvious institution would
be the United Nations. The fact that all nations share
the same goal is often referred to (by neoliberalists) as
a harmony of interests. In this case the common goal of
all nations is the reduction of climate problems in order
to protect the well being of citizens. When countries
work together in harmony, the likelihood of achieving the
goal increases.
Now that we have examined the Kyoto protocol I will
take a brief look at the Copenhagen 2009 summit. The
Copenhagen summit was there to replace the outdated Kyoto
protocol. The Copenhagen treaty was ratified in 2012 and
it contains concrete targets to reduce emissions and
25
reduce global warming before 2020. Also the deforestation
of the planet was a topic. Furthermore financing
developing countries in their struggle with the effects
of climate change was talked about.
However, the climate conference of Copenhagen is
often referred to as a missed opportunity. This is
because of none of the original goals were met. Only
partial accords where reached and no concrete goals where
set for 2020. Only the Green Climate Fund was set up en
the world temperature could not rise more than 2 degrees.
However there was no baseline for this target, nor
commitments for reduced emissions that would be necessary
to achieve the target. These goals are far less ambitious
than originally intended. The original goal was to limit
temperature rises to 1.5 Celsius and have all emission
reduced by 80% in 2050. None of these was met.
But why did these climate negotiations fail? It is
said that the Chinese are to blame for the failed
Copenhagen summit. Mark Lynas, a Guardian reporter who
was actually there in the room during the summit, says
China’s strategy was to block the open negotiations for
26
two weeks, and then ensure that the closed-door deal made
it appear as if the West had failed the World’s poor once
again (Lynas, 2009). A significant amount of aid
agencies, civil society movements and environmental
groups also blamed the U.S. and the West. It was China
who insisted that the industrialized country targets,
previously agreed as an 80% cut, be taken out of the
deal. For the record, China is not considered an
industrial country. They where consciously blocking the
negotiations, knowing that the West would take the blame.
It also speaks for itself that China has not shown much
compliance with earlier made agreements (Lynas, 2009).
Lynas argues: “A 2020 peaking year in global
emissions, essential to restrain temperatures to 2C, was
removed and replaced by woolly language suggesting that
emissions should peak "as soon as possible". The long-
term target, of global 50% cuts by 2050, was also
excised. No one else, perhaps with the exceptions of
India and Saudi Arabia, wanted this to happen. I am
certain that had the Chinese not been in the room, we
would have left Copenhagen with a deal that had
27
environmentalists popping champagne corks in every corner
of the world. (Lynas, 2009)”
China was in an extremely strong negotiating
opposition; it did not need the deal. President Obama
representing the United States did need the deal however,
he was under strong political pressure by the senate to
demonstrate that he could deliver China in any global
climate regulation framework, so conservative senators
could not argue that US carbon cuts would further
advantage Chinese industry (Lynas, 2009).
So why did China take this position? An analyst
concluded that China want to weaken the climate
regulation regime now, in order to avoid the risk that it
might be called on to me more ambitious in a few years’
time (ibid).
Let’s analyze the position of China taken in the
Copenhagen 2009 summit through the glasses of a classical
realist. China had deliberately blocked the negotiations
to pursue it’s own relative gains. China’s growth and
global political and economic dominance is based largely
28
on cheap coal. If it had to make any concessions here,
the economy of China would have been damaged. Therefore
China’s position is very easily explained by a classical
realist; it is a zero-sum game and China wants to protect
it’s own interests no matter what.
The position taken by China is a puzzle to
neoliberal institutionalist. Any cooperation amongst
countries would, on the long-term, always lead to more
benefits. The next summit is in Paris, in 2015. Let’s
hope more solid agreements can be agreed on here.
Conclusion
In this paper I have analyzed the position of China in
international climate negotiations, looked at the effect
of China’s position, and I have examined climate treaties
through a theoretical framework.
It became clear that China’s position in international
climate negotiations is reserved and that China is
reluctant to bind to short and medium term commitments.
The effects of China’s position on international climate
29
negotiation are that, even though China might contribute
to knowledge and innovative climate factors, China is
hindering climate negotiations.
I examined the treaties of Kyoto (1997) and Copenhagen
(2009) through classical realism and neoliberal
institutionalism. It became clear that most countries act
upon their own interests and pursue relative gains. This
makes the international climate negotiations a zero-sum
game. Full cooperation is limited, and international
institutions do not have binding power, which makes it
more difficult for neoliberal institutionalists to
explain the framework of international climate
negotiations. My research question was: To what extent can
China’s position in international climate negotiations be explained through classical
realism and neoliberal institutionalism? The answer to this is that the
current position of China in international climate
negotiations is more of a puzzle for neoliberal
institutionalism than for classical realism. This was
also my hypothesis, which is hereby confirmed.
The future of climate negotiations depends a great deal
on the position of China. The next climate summit is in
30
Paris in 2015. It depends very much on the willingness of
China to what extent this summit is successful and which
agreements can be made. For now it seems China will
pursue it’s own relative gains in a zero-sum game.
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