Chile: A Lesson in Relative Power 1. 2 Small spot of wet surrounded by a lot of dry.

Chile: A Lesson in Relative Power

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Small spot ofwet surroundedby a lot of dry

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Allll byyy myyysel-e-elf!

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Nice protectedinland valley

Who needsan army?

Chilean imperatives

Expand to natural borders (Patagonia and the Atacama). Secure the coast. Eliminate regional challengers.

grand strategy Direct military conquering.

Float a navy of sufficient strength to defeat any/all local powers/coalitions.

Leverage the navy to establish a wider zone of influence, but do not pick a fight with Argentina.

Strategyachieved (consolidated in mid-1800s)

achieved (local naval dominance in 1860s)

achieved (the War of the Pacific of 1879-1883 eliminated Peru/Bolivia as physical threats, secured an extra 1000 miles of coastline, and established Argentine-Chilean neutrality)

Tactics na na

Do not argue with the Argentines no matter how annoying they become. Shift towards nuclear/LNG do break dependence upon Bolivia/Argentina.

Net Assessment

The Chilean core is the Santiago Valley. The only local power with the ability to even theoretically threaten Chile is Argentina, while the only extra-regional power that might have reason to threaten Chile is the United States. The Chilean Navy, Chile's distance from Asia and Europe, Argentina's self-absorption and the de facto alliance with the Americans make Chile the world's most secure state. The only potential threat it currently faces is moderate energy dependence upon Argentina/Bolivia. An ongoing energy diversification effort is mitigating/eliminating that concern.

Denmark: Badass

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Lots of major powers in theimmediatevicinity, so whydoes Denmark even exist?

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1) Northern Europeanpopulation density2) Mouth of the Baltic

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3) Better land thanall of the neighbors

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4) Denmark isnot a peninsula – its ONE island with some extra territory

A Testament to Sea Power

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Danish imperatives

Dominate the islands Baltic/North Sea strait region (Als, Fehmarn, Langeland, Lolland, Zealand).

Become the premier power of the Baltic basin (or as close to it as possible).

grand strategy Float a navy.

When strong: Militarily obliterate or diplomatically outmanuver any power that attempts to go naval in the Baltic or the straits. When weak: Join/create an alliance that prevents any local power from dominating the Baltic.

Strategy 1949: NATO membership.

1) US alliance, NATO membership and EU membership -- in that order (1949/1973). 2) Build a Scandanavian/Baltic block within the EU and NATO (2001).

Tactics Achieved

Coordinate with the Baltic/Scandanavian bloc against Germany and Russia. Negotiate with the Russians independent of the EU. Stay out of the euro to maintain independence from Germany. Convince the US/NATO to grant the Baltic states second-hand ships. Try to get CAP funding shifted from France to Central Europe.

Net Assessment

The Danish core is the island of Zealand. The days of Danish hegemony are long gone, and now Copenhagen must actively manage its region to maintain its independence. Economically, it serves as the region's indispensible free port. Politically, it is the non-neutral neutral hub. Militarily, it is practically the 51st American state. This may land Denmark with far less autonomy than in ages past, but it absolutely guarantees its independence.

Georgia: Badass Wannabe

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A road to nowhere and internally split

Not a good body of water

Eurasian hordelands

Marmaran superpower

Ancient Persia

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Most habitable landwithin 1000 miles

But all that water createslots of mountain valleys

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A Closer Look: Modern Georgia

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Considerable insulation from outside powers

Former Soviet military bases in Georgia

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Georgian imperativesDominate the Rioni lowlands.

Plug the Abkhaz, Adjaran and Mtkavri gaps.

Dominate/Eliminate the mountain fastnesses.

Expand into the eastern half of the intra-Caucasus lowlands.

grand strategy

Establish economic linkages between the Rioni lowlands and Tbilisi.

Develop a miliary with a qualatative edge over Eurasia and Anatolia.

Develop a political/security system that can contain/control/remove minorities.

Overwhelm the region with superior numbers.

Strategy

1994: Eastablish a foreign interest in your control of the lowlands.

1994: Seek integration with NATO so that NATO forces can achieve what you cannot.

2006: Raise a cult of personality around Saakashvili. na

Tactics

Ensure foreign interest in Azerbaijani energy and the BTC/BTE corridors. Push for the internationalization of the South Ossetian conflict.

Buddy up with the UN and OSCE on the issues of reclaiming the former Soviet bases from Russia. Attempt to draw Western forces into Georgia -- espeically into permanent positions in Georgian bases.

Shatter the opposition. Quietly encourage some opposition forces to confab with the Russians to discredit them. na

Net Assessment

The Georgian core is the city of Tbilisi. Georgia can only be strong when Eurasia, Persia and Anatolia are all weak, and currently all three are strong (and strengthening). Its only possible path is to somehow convince the US/EU/NATO to undertake the economic, military and political investment required to achieve economic, military and political security for Georgia. Since all extra-regional powers have greater interests in Persia, Eurasia and Anatolia than in Georgia, this will fail.

How to do a net assessment

1. Examine regional/local geography– Climate/vegetation– Topography – Population

2. Identify the core3. What does the core have to do to

survive/thrive (the imperatives)4. How do you operationalize the imperatives

(grand strategy and strategy)19