Childhood Thyroid Cancer in Russia Following the Chernobyl accident V.K. Ivanov Chairman, Russian Scientific Commission on Radiological Protection Medical Radiological Research Center National Radiation and Epidemiological Registry The International Workshop on Radiation and Thyroid Cancer Japanese Ministry of the Environment (MoE) Fukushima Medical University (FMU) The OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) Tokyo, Japan, 21-23 February 2014
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Childhood Thyroid Cancer in Russia Following the Chernobyl accident
Medical Radiological Research Center National Radiation and Epidemiological Registry. Childhood Thyroid Cancer in Russia Following the Chernobyl accident. V.K. Ivanov Chairman, Russian Scientific Commission on Radiological Protection. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Childhood Thyroid Cancer in Russia Following the Chernobyl accident
V.K. IvanovChairman, Russian Scientific Commission on Radiological Protection
Medical Radiological Research Center National Radiation and Epidemiological Registry
The International Workshop on Radiation and Thyroid Cancer Japanese Ministry of the Environment (MoE)
Fukushima Medical University (FMU)The OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA)
Tokyo, Japan, 21-23 February 2014
Questions… Increased thyroid cancer incidence in residents exposed to radiation following the Chernobyl accident in their childhood
Increase in background(non-radiation)
thyroid cancer incidence
radiation-inducedthyroid cancer incidence +
EstimatingSCREENING EFFECT
EstimatingRADIATION RISK
Why… & How estimate…?
NRER IS A PART OF MEDICAL RADIOLOGICAL RESEARCH CENTER OF
THE RUSSIAN MINISTRY OF HEALTH
The National Registry is the WHO Collaborating Centre for Research and Training in Radiation Epidemiology
COHORT SELECTED FOR ANALYSIS OF RADIATION RISK OF THYROID CANCERSize of Cohort: 309,130 individuals with known thyroid dose (people living in contaminated areas 137Cs ≥ 5 Ci/km2) Bryansk, Kaluga, Orel and Tula regions
1980 1986 1991 2008
registrationof persons
Start of follow-up End of
follow-up18 years
Follow-up period:
Age at exposure (1986), y
Registered persons
Observed cases
N % N
0-17 97,191 31 % 247
18 + 211,939 69 % 746
Total 309,130 100 % 993
Cases: 993 Thyroid cancers (ICD-10: C73)
AVERAGE THYROID DOSES IN THE SETTLEMENTS OF BRYANSK, KALUGA, OREL AND TULA OBLASTS
The individualized thyroid doses for cohort members have been defined as equal to the average age-specific thyroid doses in their settlements at 1986, according to the Russian official catalogue of average doses of exposure of the thyroid gland.
METHODS:
Excess relative risk (ERR) model
– observed increase in thyroid cancer incidence rate
0 – baseline thyroid cancer incidence rate
ERR – excess relative risk per 1 Gy
d – average absorbed dose for the thyroid gland
,dERR 10
METHODS:
Baseline thyroid cancer incidence rate
0rus – thyroid cancer incidence rate in Russia
SIR – standardized incidence ratio (SCREENING EFFECT)
SIRrus 00
ExpectedObservedSIR
METHODS:
Assessment of screening and dose response
Thyroid dose, Gy
SCREENING EFFECT
ERR (dose response)
,dERRSIRrus 10
SIRrus 0
rus0
Follow-up: 1991 – 2008Age at the time of the Chernobyl accident (years)
Data on Chernobyl are useful for estimating long-term radiological effects following the accident at the Fukushima-1 NPP.
Statistically significant SCREENING EFFECT on thyroid cancer incidence was detected in people lived in radioactively contaminated territories following the Chernobyl accident.
The SCREENING EFFECT depends on calendar period of follow-up. The highest value of SIR (15.2 95% CI: 10.6; 20.9) was observed in the earliest follow-up period, from 1991 to 1995.
Statistically significant radiation risk of thyroid cancer is for children and adolescents (0-17 years at the time of exposure) only .
Statistically significant radiation risk of thyroid cancer is associated with thyroid doses > 250 mGy.