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Henri Poupart-Lafarge, CFO 18 March 2010 Cheuvreux Pan-Europe Paris Conference
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Cheuvreux Pan-Europe Paris Conference · free technologies: wind, nuclear, hydro (pumped storage) – Growing share of intermittent power driving need for backup capacity

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Page 1: Cheuvreux Pan-Europe Paris Conference · free technologies: wind, nuclear, hydro (pumped storage) – Growing share of intermittent power driving need for backup capacity

Henri Poupart-Lafarge, CFO

18 March 2010

Cheuvreux Pan-Europe Paris Conference

Page 2: Cheuvreux Pan-Europe Paris Conference · free technologies: wind, nuclear, hydro (pumped storage) – Growing share of intermittent power driving need for backup capacity

P 2

Agenda

1.

Our activities

3.

Conclusion

4.

Appendices

2.

Recent developments

Page 3: Cheuvreux Pan-Europe Paris Conference · free technologies: wind, nuclear, hydro (pumped storage) – Growing share of intermittent power driving need for backup capacity

P 3

The Group Two main activities

2/3

1/3

Orders in H1 2009/10

Split of activities

TransportPower

Page 4: Cheuvreux Pan-Europe Paris Conference · free technologies: wind, nuclear, hydro (pumped storage) – Growing share of intermittent power driving need for backup capacity

P 4

Power Offering

Leading positions in all power generation

markets

GasN°3

CoalN°1*

HydroN°1

Nuclear

(conventional

part) Wind

Plant integrator

for thermal applications

Strong portfolio of CO2

free technologies

* Excluding Chinese and Indian players

N°1 Small presence

Page 5: Cheuvreux Pan-Europe Paris Conference · free technologies: wind, nuclear, hydro (pumped storage) – Growing share of intermittent power driving need for backup capacity

P 5

Strong service activity

New build (incl. retrofit)

After-market

Contribution to sales

March 2009 data

Power Offering

OEM supplied at least the turbine, the generator or the steam generatorSource: ALSTOM, UDI (2008)

Total World Installed Base: ~4,600 GW

25%

18%

15%

6%

Contribution to income

from

operations

Page 6: Cheuvreux Pan-Europe Paris Conference · free technologies: wind, nuclear, hydro (pumped storage) – Growing share of intermittent power driving need for backup capacity

P 6

Power Drivers

Solid drivers in place

Developed countriesEmerging markets

• Ageing fleet candidate for replacement

• Trend of energy mix diversification

– New wave of investments in CO2

free technologies: wind, nuclear, hydro (pumped storage)

– Growing share of intermittent power driving need for backup capacity

• Strong needs for efficiency improvement creating opportunities in retrofit and services

• Economic outlook improving and renewed growth in electricity consumption even though still fragile

• Insufficient reserve margins

• Strong investment needs driven by high long-term GDP growth

Page 7: Cheuvreux Pan-Europe Paris Conference · free technologies: wind, nuclear, hydro (pumped storage) – Growing share of intermittent power driving need for backup capacity

P 7

Power Market

Power generation market in the next five years

Average of 220/240 GW p.a.

Sound medium-term demand & increasing mix diversification

WindHydroNuclearSteamGas

ASIA/PACIFIC

CHINA

INDIA

RUSSIA/CISEUROPE

MEA

NAM

LAM

Source: Alstom

Page 8: Cheuvreux Pan-Europe Paris Conference · free technologies: wind, nuclear, hydro (pumped storage) – Growing share of intermittent power driving need for backup capacity

P 8

Power Positioning

A large portfolio of technologies and a strong global coverage

Strong presence

Under development

No presence

Gas

NAM EUROPE CHINA INDIA ASIA/PACIFIC

MEA LAM RUSSIA/CIS

Steam

Nuclear

Hydro

Wind

Page 9: Cheuvreux Pan-Europe Paris Conference · free technologies: wind, nuclear, hydro (pumped storage) – Growing share of intermittent power driving need for backup capacity

P 9

Power Short term priorities

• Manage the load−

Properly deliver the backlog

Adapt recruitment to execution needs

• Develop industrial footprint in Asia and the USA

• Strengthen positioning on broad portfolio of technologies

• Leverage opportunities on the installed base

• Boost growth by selective acquisitions

Page 10: Cheuvreux Pan-Europe Paris Conference · free technologies: wind, nuclear, hydro (pumped storage) – Growing share of intermittent power driving need for backup capacity

P 10

Improvementin efficiency ofpower plants

ECS & CO2 Capture

Developmentin renewable

energies

Power Long term strategy

Strengthen clean power leadership

Page 11: Cheuvreux Pan-Europe Paris Conference · free technologies: wind, nuclear, hydro (pumped storage) – Growing share of intermittent power driving need for backup capacity

P 11

Transport Offering

A worldwide leader

Global reach A full range of products and services

Infrastructure

Rolling stockServices

Signalling

Page 12: Cheuvreux Pan-Europe Paris Conference · free technologies: wind, nuclear, hydro (pumped storage) – Growing share of intermittent power driving need for backup capacity

P 12

Transport Market and drivers

A sound demand

Key long term drivers

• Stimulus packages

• Increasing mobility & infrastructure saturation

• Growth of urban populations

• Environmental concerns

Large opportunities

in all continents

Metros

in Mexico, Canada and USA

High speed

lines in the USA

North America

Very high speed line

in Brazil

Mass transit

projects in Argentina, Chile, Venezuela and Brazil

South America

Very high speed

lines in Saudi Arabia and in Morocco

Mass transit

projects in the Arabic peninsula and in Northern Africa

MEA

Very high speed

in China

Locomotives, coaches and infrastructure in India

Metros

in China, India and Australia

Asia

Russia•

Double-decker

passenger cars

• Diesel locomotives

Europe•

Very high speed and regional trains in France and Germany

Mass transit projects in the UK and in the Netherlands

Large signalling

contracts in the UK, Netherlands and in Denmark

• High speed

in Italy

Page 13: Cheuvreux Pan-Europe Paris Conference · free technologies: wind, nuclear, hydro (pumped storage) – Growing share of intermittent power driving need for backup capacity

P 13

Transport Short term priorities

• Secure project execution−

Quality focus−

Suppliers panel development−

Cost optimisation

• Take advantage of market conditions−

Large opportunities in France, UK and Germany−

Good momentum worldwide for very high speed and mass transit

Development of service with the new private operators

• Differentiate through innovation and accelerate standardisation

• Develop worldwide positions through targeted acquisitions

Page 14: Cheuvreux Pan-Europe Paris Conference · free technologies: wind, nuclear, hydro (pumped storage) – Growing share of intermittent power driving need for backup capacity

P 14

• Largest railway market in Europe

• 85,000 kilometres of electrified track

• 1.3 billion passengers per year

• Annual freight of 1.3 billion tons

Partnership with Transmashholding

• Purchase of a 25% stake in TMH’s

equity

Downpayment

of $75 million−

Final price depending on TMH’s

results over 2008-2011

• Creation of a joint engineering company for the development and the manufacturing of new products in Russia

Transport Strategic move

Potential of the Russian market

Page 15: Cheuvreux Pan-Europe Paris Conference · free technologies: wind, nuclear, hydro (pumped storage) – Growing share of intermittent power driving need for backup capacity

P 15

Agenda

1.

Our activities

3.

Conclusion

4.

Appendices

2.

Recent developments

Page 16: Cheuvreux Pan-Europe Paris Conference · free technologies: wind, nuclear, hydro (pumped storage) – Growing share of intermittent power driving need for backup capacity

P 16

Key figures

Sept 2008 Sept 2009

Orders received 15,401 7,134 -54%

Variation

Free cash flow NS1,201 77

Income from operations 697 828 +19%Operating margin 7.8% 8.6%

Sales 8,956 9,683 +8%

Net income +7%527 562

Backlog 46,879 43,787 -7%

In € million

A good operational performance in a difficult economic environment

Page 17: Cheuvreux Pan-Europe Paris Conference · free technologies: wind, nuclear, hydro (pumped storage) – Growing share of intermittent power driving need for backup capacity

P 17

Orders

15,401

9,1797,134

H1 2008/09 H2 2008/09 H1 2009/10

In € million Evolution of orders received

Number of contracts above €100 million

• Through in orders in Q2 (€2.4 billion)

– Delays in customers’ decisions in Power

– Impact of the phasing of large contracts in Transport

• Active tendering activity expected to translate into higher orders in H2 2009/10

– Recovery of orders in Q3 (€4.2 billion), with 5 projects above €100 million booked over the period

21

Orders received by country of destination in H1 2009/10

A low level of orders in H1 2009/10

X

1410

58%17%

7%4%

14%

Contracts below €100 million

Page 18: Cheuvreux Pan-Europe Paris Conference · free technologies: wind, nuclear, hydro (pumped storage) – Growing share of intermittent power driving need for backup capacity

P 18

Backlog & book-to-bill ratio

A high visibility

46.943.8

In € billion Evolution of backlog

• Backlog representing 27 months of sales

• Solid customer base

• No cancellation/deferral of orders booked

45.7

31 March 200930 Sept 2008 30 Sept 2009

1.72

0.74

Evolution of book-to-bill ratio

0.94

H1 2009/10H1 2008/09 H2 2008/09

• Book-to-bill ratio at 0.9 in Q3 2009/10

Page 19: Cheuvreux Pan-Europe Paris Conference · free technologies: wind, nuclear, hydro (pumped storage) – Growing share of intermittent power driving need for backup capacity

P 19

Cost control and flexibility

Adaptation to the new economic environment

Evolution of selling and administrative expenses in % of sales

+11,000

Leavers

-6,500

Mar 08 Starters Sept 09

Evolution of permanent workforce

Breakdown of headcount

Fixed term contractsPermanent employees

Mar 09

Net FY 2008/09: +4,500

2,600

Leavers

-3,100

Starters

Net H1 2009/10:

-500

• First effects of short term measures (control on spending and functions efficiency)

H1 2008/09 H1 2009/10

7.4%

6.9%

81,500 79,500

March 2009 Sept 2009

11,500 10,000

Dec 2009

77,500

9,000

Dec 09

800-1,800

Net Q3 2009/10:

-1,000

LeaversStarters

Page 20: Cheuvreux Pan-Europe Paris Conference · free technologies: wind, nuclear, hydro (pumped storage) – Growing share of intermittent power driving need for backup capacity

P 20

Completion of strategic capex plansPrioritisation of R&D

Evolution of capex

125 134+7%

In € million

H1 2008/09 H1 2009/10

• New foundry in Poland unveiled in June

• Wuhan

(China): inauguration of the

factory on 12th

November 2009

• Chatanooga

(USA): progressive ramp-up

from mid-2010

Power Capex and R&D

R&D: key events

• Inauguration of Alstom/AEP CCS site at Mountaineer in West Virginia (USA) on 30th

October 2009

• Agreement signed with Clean Current Power Systems Incorporated

to enter the

ocean energy market−

Commercialisation of tidal products expected by 2012

• Marketing of the new Eco100 wind turbine (3MW)

100 m

Airbus 380

Page 21: Cheuvreux Pan-Europe Paris Conference · free technologies: wind, nuclear, hydro (pumped storage) – Growing share of intermittent power driving need for backup capacity

P 21

52 50

In € million

Selective capex and R&D programmes

Evolution of capex

H1 2008/09 H1 2009/10

Transport Capex and R&D

• AGV in Italy−

On-going tests−

Certification expected in 2010

• Prima II locomotive prototype unveiled in June−

Start of trials in Germany

R&D: key events

• Capacity expansion for rolling stock in several European countries

-4%

Page 22: Cheuvreux Pan-Europe Paris Conference · free technologies: wind, nuclear, hydro (pumped storage) – Growing share of intermittent power driving need for backup capacity

P 22

Renew-able

On-siteStorage

BackupPowerCentralized Generation

Transportation

Residential

Commercial

Industrial

• Global and regional players

• Equipment and product sale

• Multi-clients

• Major global players

• Large projects

• Focused on utilities

Production Transmission Distribution Consumption

Renew-able

On-siteStorage

BackupPowerCentralized Generation

Transportation

Residential

Commercial

Industrial

• Global and regional players

• Equipment and product sale

• Multi-clients

• Major global players

• Large projects

• Focused on utilities

Production Transmission Distribution Consumption

Portfolio development

Alstom/Schneider Electric: the best partners for Areva T&D

Page 23: Cheuvreux Pan-Europe Paris Conference · free technologies: wind, nuclear, hydro (pumped storage) – Growing share of intermittent power driving need for backup capacity

P 23

Financial impact of the deal

Enterprise value Pensionsunderfunding

Net debt asat 30.06.2009

Equity value

~ €0.2

Bn€1.05 Bn

€2.3

Bn

Alstom sharec. 2/3

EV: €1,55 Bn

Debt: €0,7 Bn

To be financed by Alstom

€2,25 Bn~ €0,4

Bn

*= 8x est. 2009 EBITDA

Minorities

Total financing

Accretive from financial year 2010/11

~ €4

Bn*

Page 24: Cheuvreux Pan-Europe Paris Conference · free technologies: wind, nuclear, hydro (pumped storage) – Growing share of intermittent power driving need for backup capacity

P 24

Areva Transmission: a major step

forward

for Alstom’s

growth

Alstom today: 2 Sectors Alstom tomorrow: a Group based

on 3 pillars

Sales: ~ €22 billionEmployees: ~ 100,000

Power Transport

Sales: ~ €19 billionEmployees: ~ 80,000

Stronger

presence

in Asia

• China: from

7,000 to

10,000 employees

• India: from

4,000 to

6,500 employees

Strong

technological

base

• R&D spending

to grow

to ~ €750 million

More balanced

spread of activities

• Transmission: an activity

combining

projects

and

products; smaller

projects;

less

cyclical

POWER TRANSPORT POWER TRANSPORTTRANSMISSION

Page 25: Cheuvreux Pan-Europe Paris Conference · free technologies: wind, nuclear, hydro (pumped storage) – Growing share of intermittent power driving need for backup capacity

P 25

Agenda

1.

Our activities

3.

Conclusion

4.

Appendices

2.

Recent developments

Page 26: Cheuvreux Pan-Europe Paris Conference · free technologies: wind, nuclear, hydro (pumped storage) – Growing share of intermittent power driving need for backup capacity

P 26

Conclusion

• Commercial activity expected to rebound

• Execution of backlog under control

• March 2010 operating margin forecast confirmed: around 9%

for the Group

Power: between 10% and 11%−

Transport: between 7% and 8%

Page 27: Cheuvreux Pan-Europe Paris Conference · free technologies: wind, nuclear, hydro (pumped storage) – Growing share of intermittent power driving need for backup capacity

P 27

Agenda

1.

Our activities

3.

Conclusion

4.

Appendices

2.

Recent developments

Page 28: Cheuvreux Pan-Europe Paris Conference · free technologies: wind, nuclear, hydro (pumped storage) – Growing share of intermittent power driving need for backup capacity

P 28

In € million

Sept 2008 Sept 2009 Variation

Power Key figures

Orders

10,203

4,731

-54%

Backlog

26,738

24,631

-8%

Sales

6,284

6,895

+10%

Income from op

581

677

+17%

Operating margin

9.2%

9.8%

Page 29: Cheuvreux Pan-Europe Paris Conference · free technologies: wind, nuclear, hydro (pumped storage) – Growing share of intermittent power driving need for backup capacity

P 29

• Retrofit

orders in the USA and in Poland

Small and medium-sized service

projects in Europe and in Asia

• No substantial O&M

contracts

Power Orders received

10,203

4,731

-54%

In € million

Orders by Businesses

H1 2008/09 H1 2009/10

RenewablesThermal Services

Thermal Systems & Products

• Gas

power plant in the UK, incl. 5xGT26

• Steam

contracts in Germany and in India

• Geothermal order in Mexico

Thermal Systems & Products

6,600

2,607

996

Main orders of H1 2009/10

Thermal Services

Various hydro

orders in Switzerland, India and Spain

• Wind

contracts in Europe

Renewables

Investments in new power plants temporarily delayed

1,849

2,173

709

Page 30: Cheuvreux Pan-Europe Paris Conference · free technologies: wind, nuclear, hydro (pumped storage) – Growing share of intermittent power driving need for backup capacity

P 30

In € million

Sept 2008 Sept 2009 Variation

Transport Key figures

Orders

5,198

2,403

-54%

Backlog

20,141

19,156

-5%

Sales

2,672

2,788

+4%

Income from op

176

195

+11%

Operating margin

6.6%

7.0%

Page 31: Cheuvreux Pan-Europe Paris Conference · free technologies: wind, nuclear, hydro (pumped storage) – Growing share of intermittent power driving need for backup capacity

P 31

Transport Orders received

5,198

2,403

-54%

In € million

Evolution of orders

H1 2008/09 H1 2009/10

Sub-urban train in Paris (France)

Metro

contracts in Sao Paulo and Brasilia (Brazil)

Tramways

in Brasilia and Montpellier (France)

Regional trains

in Denmark and Germany

Rolling Stock

Main orders of H1 2009/10

Various orders for signalling

systems in Brazil, Canada, Asia and the Netherlands

Signalling

Order intake level influenced by large contracts

Page 32: Cheuvreux Pan-Europe Paris Conference · free technologies: wind, nuclear, hydro (pumped storage) – Growing share of intermittent power driving need for backup capacity

P 32

Income statement

In € million

Sept 2008 Sept 2009 Variation

Sales

8,956

9,683

+8%

Income from operations 697 828

+19%

Restructuring costs

(13) (27)

Capital gains & other

2

(19)

EBIT

686 782

+14%

Financial result

19 (12)

Tax result

(174) (199)

Minority interest & other

(4)

(9)

Net result

527

562

+7%

Page 33: Cheuvreux Pan-Europe Paris Conference · free technologies: wind, nuclear, hydro (pumped storage) – Growing share of intermittent power driving need for backup capacity

P 33

Free cash flow

In € million

Sept 2008 Sept 2009

Change in working capitalvs book-to-bill

1.72

0.94

Btb: 1

+771

-158

0.74

In € million

H1 2008/09 H1 2009/10H2 2008/09

-475

Income from operations

697

828

Restructuring cash out

(39)

(38)Depreciation 108 131Capital expenditure

(195) (210)

R&D cap. & amort. of acq. Techno.

4

(23)Pensions (46)

(34)Change in working capital

771 (475)

Tax cash out

(129) (97)

Financial cash out

14

(1)Other

16 (4)

Free cash flow

1,201

77

Page 34: Cheuvreux Pan-Europe Paris Conference · free technologies: wind, nuclear, hydro (pumped storage) – Growing share of intermittent power driving need for backup capacity

P 34

Evolution of net cash & equity

In € million

(*) Employee share purchase schemes and stock options

Net cash31 Mar 09

1,866

2,051 (323)

Net cash position

Free cashflow

Dividends Capitalincrease*

Other Net cash30 Sept 09

In € million

Equity31 Mar 09

3,099

2,884

(323) (46)

Evolution of equity

Net income Dividends Pensionsvariation

Other Equity30 Sept 09

77

562 22

12 49

Page 35: Cheuvreux Pan-Europe Paris Conference · free technologies: wind, nuclear, hydro (pumped storage) – Growing share of intermittent power driving need for backup capacity

P 35

Contacts & agenda

• Emmanuelle Châtelain -

VP Investor

Relations

+33 (0)1 41 49 37 38

• Emmanuelle Douëzy

-

Individual Shareholders

+33 (0)1 41 49 37 59

• Dymphna Hawksley -

Logistics

+33 (0)1 41 49 37 22

• 04/05/2010

Annual results

of FY2009/10

Page 36: Cheuvreux Pan-Europe Paris Conference · free technologies: wind, nuclear, hydro (pumped storage) – Growing share of intermittent power driving need for backup capacity

P 36

Disclaimer

This presentation contains forward-looking statements which are based on current plans and forecasts of Alstom’s management. Such forward-looking statements are by their nature subject to a number of important risk and uncertainty factors (such as those described in the documents filed by Alstom with the French AMF) that could cause actual results to differ from the plans, objectives and expectations expressed in such forward-looking statements. These such forward-looking statements speak only as of the date on which they are made, and Alstom

undertakes no obligation to update or revise any of them, whether as a result of

new information, future events or otherwise.

Page 37: Cheuvreux Pan-Europe Paris Conference · free technologies: wind, nuclear, hydro (pumped storage) – Growing share of intermittent power driving need for backup capacity

www.alstom.com

Page 38: Cheuvreux Pan-Europe Paris Conference · free technologies: wind, nuclear, hydro (pumped storage) – Growing share of intermittent power driving need for backup capacity

INVESTOR RELATIONS –

3 avenue André Malraux –

92300 Levallois (France) –

www.alstom.com

Phone: 33 (0)1 41 49 37 38 –

Fax: 33 (0)1 41 49 79 25 –

[email protected]