Chesapeake Bay TMDL Primer: Chesapeake Bay Watershed and Bay Water Quality Models The Economics of Water Quality Improvements in Chesapeake Bay Workshop October 31 and November 1, 2011 Rich Batiuk, Associate Director for Science Chesapeake Bay Program Office U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Region 3
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Chesapeake Bay TMDL Primer: Chesapeake Bay Watershed and Bay Water Quality Models
Chesapeake Bay TMDL Primer: Chesapeake Bay Watershed and Bay Water Quality Models. The Economics of Water Quality Improvements in Chesapeake Bay Workshop October 31 and November 1, 2011. Rich Batiuk, Associate Director for Science Chesapeake Bay Program Office - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Chesapeake Bay TMDL Primer: Chesapeake Bay Watershed and Bay Water Quality Models
The Economics of Water Quality Improvements in Chesapeake Bay Workshop
October 31 and November 1, 2011
Rich Batiuk, Associate Director for ScienceChesapeake Bay Program Office
U.S. Environmental Protection AgencyRegion 3
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Can you say m_o_d_e_l?
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VERY GOOD!
Chesapeake Bay Airshed Model Chesapeake Bay Land Change Model
Chesapeake Bay Watershed Model Chesapeake Bay Water Quality and Sediment Transport Model
Chesapeake Bay Filter Feeder Model
Chesapeake Bay Scenario Builder
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For Our Beloved Economists…• Access to suite of state of science, fully
independent scientifically peer reviewed, fully documented models and tools available NO WHERE else for a single great waterbody
• Access to two+ decades of input data and model scenario outputs
• Model outputs stated in management applicable terms—pounds of pollution delivered to impaired waters, percentage of water quality standards attainment, etc.
Role of the Bay Models In Decision-Making
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For Our Beloved Economists…• Access to decision making processes developed
and blessed by the partnership1
– Water criteria attainment assessment– Load allocations to major river basin by jurisdiction– 3 year critical period, etc.
• Where applicable, computer programming available to apply the agreed to decision making process
• All decision making processes fully documented within the Bay TMDL document
1. Ok, so NY told us otherwise on the allocation methodology….
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Farmland and Forest Land Loss (2000 to 2030)
Source: Chesapeake Bay Land Change Model Version 3
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For Our Beloved Economists• Extent of development by county and modeling
segment
• Fraction of development impacting farmland and forest lands
• Fraction of future population on sewer and septic systems
• Changes in land uses for input into watershed model
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Scenario Builder
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For Our Beloved Economists…
• Access to the full suite of data, inputs, conservation practices, BMPs,….ok go back to the previous slide and pick your favorite data, application rate, and its yours!
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Calibration sites = 296Land Segments = 308
River Segments= 1,063Land uses = 25
Simulation Years = 21 (’85-’05)
Phase 5 Calibration Sites
Phase 5 Chesapeake Bay Watershed Model
Phase 5 Segmentation
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Annual, monthly, or daily values of anthropogenic factors:
Land Use AcreageBMPsFertilizerManureTillageCrop typesAtmospheric depositionWaste water treatmentSeptic loads
Daily flow, nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment comparedto observationsover 21 years
How the Watershed Model Works
HSPF
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Each segment consists of 25 separately-modeled land uses:
• Developed– High Density Pervious Urban– High Density Impervious Urban– Low Density Pervious Urban– Low Density Impervious Urban– Construction– Extractive – Combined Sewer System
For Our Beloved Economists…• Access to the nitrogen, phosphorus, and
sediment loads – End of stream – Delivered to the Bay– Yield (pounds/area)– Model segment, county, major river basin, jurisdiction
and basinwide scales
• BMPs—acreages, linear feet, animal units
• Practice efficiency/effectiveness measures
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Bay Water Quality Model• 57,000 cells• Predicts changes in water quality
due to changes in nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment loads– Dissolved Oxygen– Water clarity– Chlorophyll a
• Also simulates algae, underwater Bay grasses, bottom dwelling worms and clams,
• Linked with filter feeders (oysters, menhaden) model
Developed by scientists at the US Army Corps of Engineers, University of Maryland, Virginia Institute of Marine Science, HydroQual, Versar, and Rutgers University
Bay Dissolved Oxygen Criteria
Minimum Amount of Oxygen (mg/L) Needed to Survive by Species
Cbseg State DO Deep Water DO Deep Water DO Deep Water DO Deep Water DO Deep Water DO Deep Water DO Deep Water DO Deep Water DO Deep Water DO Deep Water DO Deep Water
Developing a Bay Pollution Diet in Six Easy StepsStep 1: Quantify per pound impact on Bay water quality.
Step 2: Array major river basins by jurisdiction by their relative impact on Bay water quality. Step 3. Determine allocation for the major river basins
and jurisdictions by applying the agreed to allocation methodology.
Step 4: Jurisdictions further allocate to 92 segment watersheds.
Developing a Bay Pollution Diet in Six Easy StepsStep 1: Quantify per pound impact on Bay water quality.
Step 2: Array major river basins by jurisdiction by their relative impact on Bay water quality. Step 3. Determine allocation for the major river basins
and jurisdictions by applying the agreed to allocation methodology.
Step 4: Jurisdictions further allocate to 92 segment watersheds.
Step 5: Jurisdictions allocate to sources.
Step 6. EPA based the TMDL allocations on jurisdictions’ WIPs, with adjustments as needed for reasonable assurance.
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For Our Beloved Economists…• Access to a comprehensive load allocation
methodology that formed the basis for the December 2010 Bay TMDL
• Incorporation of ‘reasonable assurance’ into the final allocations, again, following a documented evaluation process
• Allocation process is completely scalable….can be applied at the basinwide down to the county or small watershed scales
Rich BatiukAssociate Director for ScienceU.S. Environmental Protection