Cheltenham Festival Winning Profiles 2016 (Races to be run Tuesday 15 th March to Friday 18 th March) www.againstthecrowd.co.uk
Cheltenham Festival
Winning Profiles 2016
(Races to be run Tuesday 15th March to Friday 18th March)
www.againstthecrowd.co.uk
Key trends point to Festival winners
The Cheltenham Festival represents the pinnacle of National Hunt racing. The G1 races that take place at the venue every March are designed to find the best horses in specific divisions of the jump racing game. The Champion Hurdle run on the Tuesday is designed to find the best 2 mile hurdler. The Queen Mother Champion Chase is designed to find the best horse over the bigger obstacles at the minimum distance of 2 miles. The race is run on the Wednesday of the Festival. On Thursday Cheltenham Stages the World Hurdle designed to find the best staying hurdler over a trip of 3 miles. Thursday also plays host to the Ryanair Chase - a race which has become a Championship event for chasers specialising in a trip of 2 miles and 5 furlongs. On the Friday of the Festival, we have the Gold Cup - the staying chasers' Championship event run over 3 miles and 2 furlongs. In between we have big G1 races for novice hurdlers and novice chasers over a variety of distances. Even the mares and the bumper horses get a championship event to call their own. These races are difficult to read. All the major horses – at least those which are fit - tend to show up. All the major yards are represented. Every single runner is trying. The championship races are invariably run at a red hot pace and this, in combination with the specific demands of the track, means that only horses at the top of their game, horses tuned to the moment and horses in receipt of luck in running can prevail on the day. A horse can run the race of its life at the Cheltenham Festival – and it can still get beaten. So how do we solve these betting puzzles? It's never ‘easy’ to solve these races - but fortunately help is at hand - in the form of historical evidence. Over the years specific types of horses tend to come out on top time and time in the same races. They share certain characteristics. They have similar qualifications and credentials. They have achieved similar things. Their careers and campaigns have been constructed around common themes.
Conversely, horses who fail to meet the criteria laid down by these longstanding trends tend to fall short. Trends will not always point you directly to a winner. But they will help you split a field into the horses who fit the winning trends most closely and those who match them least. And trends can help you reach betting decisions. No horse will meet every trend in every race. But we can take a subjective view and weigh up one thing against another. We can figure out which trends we think are most important against what else we know. We might discard some trends. Where some trends are concerned we might forgive a horse for not meeting the criteria – for whatever reason. The point I’m making is that trends are instructive and can direct and focus the way we look at or get into or go about finding angles on specific races. In this report you will find comprehensive stats for 12 of the top G1 races set to
be run at this season’s Cheltenham Festival. I call these documents Winning Race
Profiles – and they are part of the approach I take to finding value bets in the big
races.
These Winning Race Profiles are a useful tool. That’s why I compile them. That’s
why I keep them up to date year on year. That’s why I use them – alongside my
other methods – in my own analysis of the big races. And that’s why I’m handing
them over to you.
They don’t represent some kind of magic winner-finding system. It isn’t a case of
A + B + C + D = winner. But it is good data – much of which you won’t find
elsewhere.
Take a look at the key stats for any of the individual races. Isolate those that seem
strongest or most important. Then measure the horses set to go to post in this
season’s renewal against that statistical checklist. See how they measure up as
potential candidates.
It’s a very instructive process – at the end of which, at the very least, you will have
very clear ideas on the strengths and potential flaws in each of the horses set to
run. That’s the kind of information and insight that large portions of the market is
completely unaware of. Considering those are the people you are betting against, it
is clear that the information contained in our Winning Race Profiles delivers a very
real knowledge edge.
What next? There is no standard right or wrong way forward. It is a case of each to
his own. Some of my readers back the top scorer on the Profile. That’s fine.
Personally, I use my Winning Race Profiles as a value-finding tool. I am always
most interested in the horses that tick a lot of the Profile boxes but which are
being overlooked by the wider market.
I’m a contrarian punter. That’s the way I play. How you use the information is
pretty much up to you. All I hope is that you find the information useful – and if
you use it to bag a winner at this year’s Festival, then so much the better. Let us
know how you get on.
Best wishes
Nick Pullen
February 2016
The Profile of a Supreme Novice Hurdle winner
The Cheltenham Festival gets underway with the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle – a race
for the best young hurdlers around and one that is generally won by a horse
destined for a career at the top of the jumps game. This is a big field affair with an
average of 19 runners per year since 1997.
The Supreme Novices’ Hurdle is a Grade 1 event contested over the extended 2 mile trip and 8 flights on Cheltenham’s Old course. The race is open to horses aged 4 and older. The 4yo runners carry 11-00 with the older runners carrying 11-07. Mares benefit from a 7lb allowance.
Yards with form – Willie Mullins has produced 5 winners of this race since 1995
– including each of the last 3 renewals. Nicky Henderson hasn’t managed a
winner this century but is probably due – having saddled 10 placed horses over
that period. Paul Nicholls and Noel Meade have saddled two winners apiece
since 2000. Good yards with the best ammunition tend to prevail. Philip Hobbs
has a winner and two places from his last 11 participants.
In the plate – Ruby Walsh has been the dominant force in the saddle over recent
years. He has won the race 5 times and placed once since the turn of the century.
Market pointers – Twelve of the last 18 winners came out of the front 3 in
the market. But there is generally something for the fans of bigger-priced horses
to shoot for with 22 of the last 45 winners and placed horses going off at double-
figure SPs.
I’ve studied the last 18 renewals of the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and I’ve identified a
series of key statistical indicators that will help us pinpoint the live contenders and
the best bets in this year’s field. Here’s what I discovered….
Primary Pointers – (the strongest stats produced by the most recent renewals)….
17 of the last 18 winners had won at least 50% of their hurdle races
17 had never finished outside the first 3 in a completed hurdle race
17 had scored career best RPR in one of last 2 races
17 had scored career best RPR over hurdles at trips between 16f and 18f
16 had won multiple hurdle races
16 had won last time out (12 had won their last 2 starts over hurdles)
16 had scored a career best RPR over hurdles of 137+ (10 of the last 12 winners had scored 142+)
16 had a Dosage Profile with a CD figure of 0.31 or less. Get the CD figures for this season’s runners here: http://www.pedigreequery.com/
15 had scored a career-best Topspeed rating of 100+ over hurdles
15 had raced between 2 and 4 times over hurdles
15 of the last 18 winners had won a hurdle race in a field of 11 or more
15 of the last 18 winners were aged 5- or 6-years-old
14 had raced in the last 6 weeks – give or take a day or two
14 of the last 18 winners were bred in Ireland or Great Britain
14 were sent off favourite in their final prep race
12 of the last 14 winners had contested a hurdle race worth more than £10k
11 of the last 12 winners had raced no more than 9 times in total (flat, NHF or hurdle races)
8 of the last 12 winners had contested a G1 or G2 hurdle race (7 produced a top 3 finish)
8 of the last 9 winners to race over hurdles at 18f+ had won at that trip
Just one of the last 18 winners had run in a handicap hurdle race
There have been 2 winning mares in the last 18 years
Apply those statistical tests to all the runners set to go to post in this season’s
renewal of the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. The strongest scorers are of most interest
from a betting perspective….
On the morning of the race itself….
This season’s edition of the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle will be run on Tuesday 15th
March.
If you are a subscriber to our service for this season’s Cheltenham Festival, we will
be in your email in-box first thing on the morning of the race with our analysis of
the runners and prevailing conditions, our take on the horses best-qualified to put
up a big run and our betting advice for the race including, as per usual, our
CONTRARIAN PICKS – our idea of the best value-for-money bets at the
prices.
The Profile of an Arkle Challenge Trophy winner
Next up for the Winning Profile treatment on Day 1 of the Festival is the Arkle
Challenge Trophy – the leading chase for novices on the NH fixture calendar. This
race is often a strong guide for the following season’s Champion Chase – the
Championship event for chasers in the 2-mile division. There have been one or
two small fields for this in recent times – with heavily-fancied horses scaring plenty
of possible participants away – but generally 10+ runners go to post.
The Arkle Challenge Trophy is a Grade 1 chase contested over the 2 mile trip and 12 fences on Cheltenham’s Old course. The race is open to horses aged 5 and older. Weights are set at 11-04. Mares benefit from the 7lb allowance.
Yards with form – Nicky Henderson’s last 13 runners in this event have yielded
3 winners and 4 placed horses. Alan King’s last half a dozen runners have
produced 2 wins between them. Since the turn of the century Paul Nicholls and
Philip Hobbs have also produced multiple contenders who won or got
competitive. Once again it is the yards known for being in possession of quality
ammunition that have produced the best results.
Bloodlines of note – The last 5 runners sired by King’s Theatre produced a win
and two placed efforts.
In the plate – Given the right horse Barry Geraghty knows exactly how to win
this race with his last 13 rides producing 4 winners and 3 additional placed
finishers. Richard Johnson’s last 9 rides produced a winner and 2 placed
finishers.
Market pointers – Eleven of the last 18 winners came out of the front 3 in the
market. Just 13 of the last 43 winners and placed horses were sent off at double-
figure SPs. The more fancied horses tend to run up to their odds.
I’ve studied the last 18 renewals of the Arkle Challenge Trophy and I’ve identified a
series of key statistical indicators that will help us pinpoint the live contenders and
the best bets in this year’s field. Here’s what I discovered….
Primary Pointers – (the strongest stats produced by the most recent renewals)….
All of the last 18 winners had won at least one chase (13 were multiple winners)
17 of the last 18 winners had won at least one of last two completed chases
17 had not finished outside 1st 2 in any completed chase that season
16 were aged 5- to 7-years-old
16 had finished 1st or 2nd over fences last time out (13 won)
16 of the last 18 winners scored career-best chasing RPR in last completed chase
16 had been off the track at least 21 days
16 had never fallen or unseated in a chase
15 had a strike rate of 50%+ over fences (9 were unbeaten in chases)
15 had raced 2 to 4 times over fences
10 of the last 12 winners had already scored a career-best chasing RPR of 154+
15 of the 16 previous winners to race at least twice over fences had scored a career best chasing RPR of 144+ (12 of the 13 to race at least 3 times over fences had scored an RPR of 150+)
14 had scored a best Topspeed rating of 134+
14 had won at 17f+ over fences (10 had won at 18f+)
13 (incl. 8 of the last 10) had contested a G1 or G2 chase (all producing a top 2 finish and 8 doing so more than once)
13 of the last 15 winners had been officially rated 142+ over hurdles at one time or another
12 had contested a G1 or G2 chase over 16f or 17f
12 had experience at Cheltenham over fences or hurdles (10 producing a top 3 finish)
11 of the last 18 winners had scored career-best chasing RPR at trips of 17f+
9 had appeared at a previous Festival (7 had won or placed)
9 of the last 12 winners had contested a G1 or G2 chase last time out
7 of the last 8 winners had contested bumpers earlier in career
4 of the last 8 winners had placed in a novice hurdle event at the previous year’s Festival
None of the last 18 winners had ever contested a handicap chase
That’s a strong Winning Profile with plenty of highly-instructive stats enabling you
to zero-in on the best-credentialed horses in this season’s edition of the Arkle
Challenge Trophy….
On the morning of the race itself….
This season’s edition of the Arkle Challenge Trophy will be run on Tuesday 15th
March.
If you are a subscriber to our service for this season’s Cheltenham Festival, we will
be in your email in-box first thing on the morning of the race with our analysis of
the runners and prevailing conditions, our take on the horses best-qualified to put
up a big run and our betting advice for the race including, as per usual, our
CONTRARIAN PICKS – our idea of the best value-for-money bets at the
prices.
The Profile of a Champion Hurdle winner
The Champion Hurdle is the feature race on the opening day of the Festival – the
Championship event for the hurdlers. Faugheen will be looking to defend his
crown. We can usually rely on a double-figure field going to post for this – with a
really big field now and again.
The Champion Hurdle is a Grade 1 event run over the extended 2 mile trip and 8 flights on Cheltenham’s Old course. The race is open to horses aged 4 and older. The 4yos carry 11-02 whilst the older horses must shoulder 11-10. Fillies and mares benefit from the standard 7lb allowance.
Yards with form – Nicky Henderson has won the race 5 times in total. His last
23 participants have generated 2 wins and 7 additional placed finishes. Willie
Mullins has been the star-man over the last few years. His last 15 runners have
produced 3 winners and 3 placed finishers.
Bloodlines of note – It is worth noting that horses sired by Oscar seem
particularly suited to the test this race presents. His last 6 runners have produced a
winner and 3 additional horses that hit the frame.
In the plate – The top jockeys have enjoyed most success in this event in recent
times. Barry Geraghty has partnered two winners and 3 placed horses from 12
rides. Ruby Walsh has ridden 3 winners and 4 placed horses from 14 rides. For
sure, the top jockeys get the best rides – but they get them for a reason.
Market pointers – Where the championship races are concerned, this is the race
where I’m happiest to look for a horse down the prices. Nine of the winners over
the last 18 years came from out of the top 3 in the market – 6 won at double-
figure SPs.
I’ve studied the last 18 renewals of the Champion Hurdle and I’ve identified a series
of key statistical indicators that will help us pinpoint the live contenders and the
best bets in this year’s field. Here’s what I discovered….
Primary Pointers – (the strongest stats produced by the most recent renewals)….
All of the last 18 winners had raced at least 5 times over hurdles (15 had raced at least 10 times)
17 had appeared on the track since Christmas
17 had already run over hurdles at Cheltenham (15 registering a top 3 finish)
16 had scored a Racing Post rating of 156+ at 16f or 17f
16 had a winning strike rate of 33%+ over hurdles
16 had a strike rate of 40%+ over hurdles at 16f or 17f
16 had raced no more than 20 times over hurdles
16 had scored a top 4 finish at the previous season’s Festival
16 had won a hurdle race in a field of 15+ runners
15 of the last 18 winners were aged 6- to 8-years-old
15 had appeared in a G1 hurdle race that season
15 had scored a career-best RPR over hurdles of 160+
15 had scored an RPR of 160+ in one of last 3 hurdle races
15 had scored a career-best Topspeed rating over hurdles of 150+
15 had raced over hurdles at 18f+ (13 registering a win)
14 had run 3 or 4 times over hurdles that season
14 had won last time out
14 had not been outside the first 3 in any completed hurdle race that term
14 had won either a G1 or a G2 hurdle race that season
12 had scored 154+ at a trip beyond 17f
10 of the last 12 winners had a won a G1 over hurdles at 16f or 17f
9 of the last 12 winners had hit the top 3 in a hurdle race worth £40k+ that season
9 of the last 12 winners had won a hurdle race worth £58k+ at one time or another
Horses that best-measure up to the blueprint can be considered strong contenders
in this season’s renewal. And if you can find a contender at a juicy price then that’s
all the better….
On the morning of the race itself….
This season’s edition of the Champion Hurdle will be run on Tuesday 15th March.
If you are a subscriber to our service for this season’s Cheltenham Festival, we will
be in your email in-box first thing on the morning of the race with our analysis of
the runners and prevailing conditions, our take on the horses best-qualified to put
up a big run and our betting advice for the race including, as per usual, our
CONTRARIAN PICKS – our idea of the best value-for-money bets at the
prices.
The Profile of a Neptune Novice’s Hurdle winner
We move on to Day 2 of the meeting and the Neptune Novices’ Hurdle which is an
event for the up-and-coming middle-distance hurdlers. We generally get a good
field for this – with an average of 16 going to post since 1997.
This is a Grade 1 race contested over 2 miles and 5 furlongs and 10 flights on Cheltenham’s Old course. The race is open to horses aged 4 and older. Weights are set at 10-13 for the 4yo runners. The older horses carry 11-07. Fillies and mares benefit from the standard 7lb allowance.
Yards with form – Willie Mullins has the best recent record of current trainers
with 3 winners and 6 additional placed finishers from his last 17 runners. Runners
saddled by his Irish compatriots, Noel Meade and Mouse Morris, are worth
running the rule over. They have decent records in this too. Of the Brit contingent
Nigel Twiston-Davies shows the way with 2 winners and a place since 2000.
Bloodlines of note – Oscar sires more than his fair share of top-class hurdlers
and his progeny do well in this event. His last 8 runners produced a win and 3
frame finishes. Presenting progeny go well too. His last 10 participants produced
a win and 2 places.
In the plate – Ruby Walsh is the man in the weighing room with the best recent
record in this race. Combining with runners trained by Willie Mullins and Paul
Nicholls his record reads 3 wins and 5 places from his last 14 rides in the race.
Market pointers – 11 of the last 18 winners came out of the front 3 in the market.
Just 3 winners over the period were sent off at odds greater than 17/2. The top 5
in the betting is where the winner is generally found.
I’ve studied the last 18 renewals of the Neptune Novices’ Hurdle and I’ve identified a
series of key statistical indicators that will help us pinpoint the live contenders and
the best bets in this year’s field. Here’s what I discovered….
Primary Pointers – (the strongest stats produced by the most recent renewals)….
All of the last 18 winners had won at least one hurdle race
17 were aged 5- or 6-years-old
17 had raced since Christmas
16 had raced at least twice over hurdles
16 had raced no more than 5 times over hurdles
16 had raced no more than 11 times in total (flat, NHF or hurdles)
16 previous winners had raced over hurdles more than once and all had scored a career-best RPR of 145+ (13 of that 16 had scored career-best RPR last time out)
16 of the last 18 winners had raced at 18f+ (all of that 16 had scored a win at 18f+ and 14 of that 16 had scored an RPR of 144+ at those kinds of trip)
15 were operating at a strike rate of 50%+ over hurdles
15 had never been outside the first 2 in a completed hurdle race
15 had scored a top 2 finish in a G1 or G2 race during the current season
13 won last time out (4 that didn’t finished 2nd)
13 of the previous 18 winners had raced in National Hunt Flat races
11 of the last 12 winners had a Dosage Profile with a CD figure of 0.33 or lower. Get the CD figures for this year’s runners here: http://www.pedigreequery.com/
10 of the last 12 winners contested a Grade standard race last time out
Not quite as many clear-cut pointers as I would like but the previous 18 renewals
do provide a few strong pointers to help sort the wheat from the chaff….
On the morning of the race itself….
This season’s edition of the NIM Hurdle will be run on Wednesday 16th March.
If you are a subscriber to our service for this season’s Cheltenham Festival, we will
be in your email in-box first thing on the morning of the race with our analysis of
the runners and prevailing conditions, our take on the horses best-qualified to put
up a big run and our betting advice for the race including, as per usual, our
CONTRARIAN PICKS – our idea of the best value-for-money bets at the
prices.
The Profile of an RSA Chase winner
We move onto the RSA Chase – something of a championship event for up-and-
coming staying novice chasers. Several previous winners subsequently won the
Gold Cup – Bobs Worth and Lord Windermere being the most recent examples.
In more years than not since 1997 we’ve seen a double-figure field go to post.
The RSA Chase is a Grade 1 contest run over the extended 3 mile trip and 19 fences on Cheltenham’s Old course. The race is open to horses aged 5 and older. The 5yo runners carry 11-03. The older runners carry 11-04. Mares benefit from the standard 7lb allowance.
Yards with form – Nicky Henderson, Paul Nicholls and Willie Mullins – the
major yards in recent times – regularly find the right horse for this race.
Henderson has a record of 2 winners and 3 additional placed horses from his last
11 entrants. Nicholls is 2 winners and two places from his last 15 runners.
Mullins has registered 3 wins and 3 additional frame finishers from the last 17
participants he’s sent into the event.
Bloodlines of note – Accordion’s progeny are worth noting if and when they
run. Of the last 5 runners to fly his flag one won and the other 4 hit the frame.
Presenting is another name to note. The last 10 of his progeny to go to post
produced 2 wins and 3 placed finishes.
In the plate – Barry Geraghty, Ruby Walsh and Richard Johnson all have
decent records in this race in terms of wins and places – a case maybe of the big
names getting the best rides when it boils down to it.
Market pointers – The historic record offers some encouragement to punters like
me who like to bet horses at a decent price – 10 of the last 18 winners went off at
SPs between 13/2 and 33/1.
I’ve studied the last 18 renewals of the RSA Chase and I’ve identified a series of key
statistical indicators that will help us pinpoint the live contenders and the best bets
in this year’s field. Here’s what I discovered….
Primary Pointers – (the strongest stats produced by the most recent renewals)….
All of the last 18 winners had won at least on chase
17 had scored career-best chasing RPR in one of last 2 races
17 had been off the track between 3 and 6 weeks
16 were bred in Ireland (the other 2 in France)
16 had finished 1st or 2nd last time out
16 had never finished outside the first 3 in any completed chase
15 of the last 18 winners were aged 6- or 7-years-old
15 had run over fences 3 to 5 times
15 had run no more than 15 times in total
15 of the 17 for whom data exists had a Dosage Profile with a CD figure of 0.33 or less. Get the DI figures for this season’s field here: http://www.pedigreequery.com/
15 of the 17 for whom data exists had a sire with a Stamina Index figure of 12.0+
14 had run at 24f with 11 producing a win (of the 4 that hadn’t run at 3 miles+ 3 had won at the longest trip encountered over fences)
All of the last 12 winners had contested a G1 or a G2 that term (10 producing at least one top 2 finish)
11 of the last 12 winners had scored a career-best RPR of 150+ over fences (10 hitting that standard last time out)
10 of the last 11 winners had experience of Cheltenham – be it over fences, hurdles or in bumpers
10 of the last 12 winners had a Dosage Profile with DI figure less than 1.00. Get the DI figures for this season’s field here: http://www.pedigreequery.com/
9 of the last 12 winners had appeared at the previous season’s Festival (5 finishing 1st or 2nd)
Just one of the previous 18 winners had appeared on the flat
That’s a strong dataset with which to work and the horses in this field that possess
most of the required credentials and attributes can be considered very strong
candidates….
On the morning of the race itself….
This season’s edition of the RSA Chase will be run on Wednesday 16th March.
If you are a subscriber to our service for this season’s Cheltenham Festival, we will
be in your email in-box first thing on the morning of the race with our analysis of
the runners and prevailing conditions, our take on the horses best-qualified to put
up a big run and our betting advice for the race including, as per usual, our
CONTRARIAN PICKS – our idea of the best value-for-money bets at the
prices.
The Profile of a Champion Chase winner
The Champion Chase is the feature race of Day 2 at the Cheltenham Festival and is
the pinnacle event in racing for chasers over the minimum distance. The list of
recent winners reads like a Who’s Who of 21st Century chasers and this race is very
rarely produced a freak result. The only downside is that it rarely attracts a big field.
But the race is never less than exciting with quality chasers taking their fences at
real speed.
This is a Grade 1 event for chasers over 2 miles and 12 fences on Cheltenham’s Old course. The race is open to horses aged 5 and older. Weights are set at 11-10. Mares benefit from the standard 7lb allowance.
Yards with form – Paul Nicholls has been the man with the right horses in
recent times – with the likes of Azertyuiop, Master Minded and, more recently,
Dodging Bullets, flying the Ditcheat flag flag. Nicky Henderson has won two
of the last 4 renewals. The bottom line is that past form counts for little. You need
the right horse right now.
Market pointer – The market has been a decent guide in recent times with 14 of
the winners since 1997 going off in the front 3 market positions. Only one of the
last 17 winners went off at an SP bigger than 10s.
I’ve studied the last 18 renewals of the Queen Mother Champion Chase and I’ve
identified a series of key statistical indicators that will help us pinpoint the live
contenders and the best bets in this year’s field. Here’s what I discovered….
Primary Pointers – (the strongest stats produced by the most recent renewals)….
17 of the last 18 winners had already won at least 4 times over fences
17 had raced at least 6 times over fences
16 were operating at a strike rate of 50%+ at 16f to 17f over fences
16 had scored a best chasing RPR of 166+
16 had scored 163+ last time out over fences
16 had scored a best of 154+ on the Topspeed scale
16 had won a Grade 1 or a Grade 2 chase that term
16 had already won or finished 2nd in an Open Grade 1 chase (11 had won one of last two such races contested)
16 had raced at 16f or 17f over fences last time out
16 had been off the track between 32 and 55 days
15 had an overall strike rate of 50%+ over fences
15 had scored career-best chasing RPR over fences at 16f or 17f
15 had contested a Grade 1 chase that term
15 had already raced over fences at the track (12 producing a win)
15 were no older than 9-years-old (incl. 11 of last 12 winners)
14 had won last chase completed
14 had won at trips of 18f+ (just 2 had gone beyond 21f)
14 had appeared at a previous Festival (9 securing a top 3 finish)
11 of the last 12 winners had raced no more than 15 times over fences
11 of the last 12 winners appeared in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 chase last time out
10 of the last 12 winners had run 2 to 4 times that season
10 of the last 12 winners had won a chase worth £50k+ to winning connections
Another very strong set of Winning Profile stats there which will enable you to
pinpoint the best-qualified contenders and swerve the horses that will be running
for pride and down-the-order money….
On the morning of the race itself….
This season’s edition of the Queen Mother Champion Chase will be run on
Wednesday 16th March.
If you are a subscriber to our service for this season’s Cheltenham Festival, we will
be in your email in-box first thing on the morning of the race with our analysis of
the runners and prevailing conditions, our take on the horses best-qualified to put
up a big run and our betting advice for the race including, as per usual, our
CONTRARIAN PICKS – our idea of the best value-for-money bets at the
prices.
The Profile of a JLT Novices’ Chase winner
The JLT Novices’ Chase was only added to the Festival programme in 2011. It was
originally a Grade 2 race was upgraded to Grade 1 status for the 2015 renewal. We
only have 5 renewals to study but it’s a good race and I think it’s worthwhile to
extract what statistical pointers we can. A decent size field – averaging 11 – has
gone to post each year.
The race is a Grade 1 contest for novice chasers – some of whom might be destined for a place at the top table of jumps racing further down the line. The race is run over 20f and 17 fences on Cheltenham’s New course. The race is open to horses aged 5 and older. Weights are set at 11-04. Mares benefit from the standard 7lb allowance.
Market pointers – Three of the 5 winners to date were sent off in the front 2 of
the market.
I’ve studied the 5 renewals of the JLT Novices’ Chase to date and I’ve identified a
series of key statistical indicators that will help us pinpoint the live contenders and
the best bets in this year’s field. Here’s what I discovered….
Primary Pointers – (the strongest stats produced by the most recent renewals)….
All of the last 5 winners were aged 6 or 7
All had raced over fences at least 3 times and no more than 5 times
All had won over fences
All had a chasing strike-rate of at least 33% (4 were operating at 40%+)
All finished 1st or 2nd last time out
All were officially rated 146+
All had scored a best RPR of 150+ over fences
All had finished 1st or 2nd in a Grade 1 or a Grade 2 chase
All had preciously raced at Cheltenham (albeit 4 of them only over hurdles)
All 5 had appeared at a previous Festival (4 hitting the top 6)
All had appeared in a Grade 1 or a Grade 2 last time out (4 of them at Leopardstown)
All had scored an RPR of 143+ over hurdles
4 had scored career-best fencing RPR last time out
4 had won multiple races over fences
4 had already run at 19f+ (all registering a win in the process)
4 were trained in Ireland
Of course, we’re not working with a big data sample so our conclusions are more
tentative than definitive – but even so, those stats should point you to strong
candidates running in this season’s edition of the race….
On the morning of the race itself….
This season’s edition of the JLT Novices’ Chase will be run on Thursday 17th
March.
If you are a subscriber to our service for this season’s Cheltenham Festival, we will
be in your email in-box first thing on the morning of the race with our analysis of
the runners and prevailing conditions, our take on the horses best-qualified to put
up a big run and our betting advice for the race including, as per usual, our
CONTRARIAN PICKS – our idea of the best value-for-money bets at the
prices.
The Profile of a Ryanair Chase winner
Since its introduction to the Festival programme in 2005 the Ryanair Chase has
developed into something of a championship event for the middle-distance chasers
and – for my money at least – represents one of the best races held at the meeting.
It attracts decent fields of high-quality runners and has produced some really
exciting finishes over the last few years.
This is a Grade 1 race run over the 21 furlong trip and 17 fences on Cheltenham’s New course. The race is open to horses aged 5 and older. Weights are set at 11-10 with mares getting the standard 7lb allowance.
Yards with form – Jonjo O’Neill has won this twice and placed once but all as a
result of one horse – Albertas Run. Where strong performances from multiple
horses are concerned it’s a case of the same old story. Nicky Henderson and
Paul Nicholls are the men with the best records. Henderson has had 2 winners
and three places from 13 runners. Nicholls has produced 2 winners and 2 places
from his 15 representatives. David Pipe has produced in this race too – 5 runners
producing two wins and a place. Alan King’s last 6 participants have produced a
win and two place finishes.
Bloodlines of note – King’s Theatre sired two of the last 4 winners of the race –
Riverside Theatre and Cue Card.
Market pointers – Consensus horses have been to the fore in the short history of
this race. Nine of the 11 winners to date were sent off in the front 3 of the market.
I’ve studied the 11 renewals of the Ryanair Chase to date and I’ve identified a series
of key statistical indicators that will help us pinpoint the live contenders and the
best bets in this year’s field. Here’s what I discovered….
Primary Pointers – (the strongest stats produced by the most recent renewals)….
All had run in a chase at Cheltenham (10 finishing in top 2 and 8 hitting that level multiple times)
All had been off the track at least 26 days
10 had appeared at a previous Festival (9 registering at least one top 5 finish)
10 had raced at least 7 times over fences
10 had run in 2 to 4 chases that term
10 of the last 11 winners were officially rated 155+ (7 of the last 8 were rated 161+)
10 had scored a career-best RPR over fences of 160+
10 had won at least 4 times over fences
10 had appeared in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 chase last time out
10 had a Dosage Profile with a CD figure of 0.33 or lower. Get the figures for this year’s field here: http://www.pedigreequery.com/
9 had scored an RPR of 160+ in one of last 3 races over fences
9 had scored an RPR of 160+ at 20f to 22f over fences
9 had finished in the first 3 in a Graded chase that term
9 had a chase strike-rate of 30%+
9 had won at least 2 chases at 19f to 22f
9 had raced no more than 17 times over fences
8 had finished 1st or 2nd in at least one of last two chases contested
8 had scored a career-best Topspeed rating of 151+
8 of the last 9 winners had contested a race worth £80k+ that term (6 producing a top 3 finish)
8 of the last 11 winners had already won a chase worth at least £50k to winning connections
8 had a strike rate of 33%+ over fences at 19f to 22f
8 had contested races at 24f+ over fences (6 producing performances worth 164+
All of the last 8 winners had run in a Grade 1 chase that term
7 were aged 7- to 9-years-old
5 of the last 8 winners had already won an Open Grade 1 chase at some point on the RPR scale)
Another strong Winning Profile with a range of significant and informative stats
which will swiftly draw your attention to the runners most likely to be competitive
in this season’s renewal….
On the morning of the race itself….
This season’s edition of the Ryanair Chase will be run on Thursday 17th March.
If you are a subscriber to our service for this season’s Cheltenham Festival, we will
be in your email in-box first thing on the morning of the race with our analysis of
the runners and prevailing conditions, our take on the horses best-qualified to put
up a big run and our betting advice for the race including, as per usual, our
CONTRARIAN PICKS – our idea of the best value-for-money bets at the
prices.
The Profile of a World Hurdle winner
The World Hurdle is the Championship event for the staying hurdlers. Working
with the stats for this race is slightly confused by the fact that 3 horses – Big
Buck’s, Inglis Drever and Baracouda – won 9 of the last 18 renewals between
them. With that in mind I have focused most attention on figures extracted from
the 11 renewals since 1997 to feature a first-time winner.
This is Grade 1 event contested over 3 miles and 12 hurdles on Cheltenham’s New course. The race is open to horses aged 4 and older. The 4yos carry 11-01. The older horses carry 11-10. Mares get the 7lb allowance.
Yards with form – Trainers that have handled any one of the multiple winners
clearly stand out on the stats. Of the rest Alan King’s runners are worth a look.
He’s saddled just one winner but 4 of his other 13 runners hit the frame.
Market pointers – Twelve of the last 18 winners could be found in the top 3 of
the market.
I’ve studied each of the last 18 renewals but I’ve focused my attention most closely
on the 12 renewals since 1997 featuring first-time winners of the race. I’ve
identified a series of key statistical indicators that will help us pinpoint the live
contenders and the best bets in this year’s field. Here’s what I discovered….
Primary Pointers – (the strongest stats produced by the most recent renewals)….
All of the last 12 first-time winners had won at least twice over hurdles
All had raced no more than 24 time under rules in total (on flat, in bumpers, over hurdles or over fences)
11 had appeared over hurdles at Cheltenham (8 producing a top 2 finish)
11 of the last 12 first-time winners had won a race against at least 10 opponents
10 were operating over hurdles at a winning strike rate in excess 37.5%+
10 had scored a career-best hurdling RPR of 157+ (6 had scored 165+)
10 had scored career-best RPR in one of last 3 races
10 of the last 12 first-time winners were aged 6 or 7
10 had run between 2 and 4 times over hurdles that term
10 had raced in last 7 weeks
9 of the last 12 first-time winners had a strike rate of 42%+ over hurdles
9 of the last 12 first time winners had scored at least 135 over hurdles on the Topspeed scale
9 had appeared at a previous Festival (6 producing at least one top 6 finish)
9 had scored 150+ last time out (7 had scored 156+)
9 had won a Grade race that season
9 had already finished 1st or 2nd in an Open Grade 1 race
9 had raced between 6 and 14 times over hurdles
9 of the last 10 first-time winners contested a Grade race last time out
8 of the last 9 first-time winners had not been outside the first 2 in a hurdle race that term
6 had not run over hurdles at 24f+ (4 of those had scored 157+ at longest trip encountered)
5 of the last 8 first-time winners had won a hurdle race worth £37k+ to winning connections
5 of that 6 that had run over hurdles at 24f+ had produced a win (and each of them had scored an RPR of 157+ at that kind of trip)
Those stats will serve to alert you to the major players in this season’s renewal.
On the morning of the race itself….
This season’s edition of the World Hurdle will be run on Thursday 17th March.
If you are a subscriber to our service for this season’s Cheltenham Festival, we will
be in your email in-box first thing on the morning of the race with our analysis of
the runners and prevailing conditions, our take on the horses best-qualified to put
up a big run and our betting advice for the race including, as per usual, our
CONTRARIAN PICKS – our idea of the best value-for-money bets at the
prices.
The Profile of a Triumph Hurdle winner
The final day of the Festival meeting kicks-off with the Triumph Hurdle – an
opportunity for the juvenile hurdlers to stamp their mark and advertise their top-
level credentials. This is the top event for juvenile hurdlers on the NH programme
and a big field goes to post almost every year. The winner and placed horses are
inevitably pretty good. Future Champion Hurdle runners and other future top-table
performers make their big-race debut in the Triumph.
This is a Grade 1 race that is run over the 17f trip and 8 flights on Cheltenham’s New course. The race is open to 4-year-old horses. Weights are set at 11-00. Mares get the standard 7lb allowance.
Yards with form – Alan King has a well-deserved reputation for being good with
hurdlers and his record in this race tells you why. His last 17 runners produced 2
wins and 4 frame finishes. Nicky Henderson has had 3 winners and 5 that made
the frame since the turn of the century – he’s saddled 6 winners in total. Paul
Nicholls and Philip Hobbs have also saddled 2 winners and 2 placed horses
since 2000 – the latter from just 7 runners.
Bloodlines of note – Kalanisi’s 4 progeny to run in this race since 2000 produced
a win and 2 frame finishes.
In the plate – Barry Geraghty knows what it takes to go well in this contest. His
last 14 rides generated 4 wins and 2 additional placed finishes. Ruby Walsh &
Richard Johnson all have good records – capitalizing on their relationships with
the big yards.
Market pointers – A bit of a mixed bag with 10 of the last 18 winners emerging
from the front 3 in the market but encouragement for contrarians with winners 5
at price between 16s and 33s – and plenty of placed horses at prices.
I’ve studied the last 18 renewals of the Triumph Hurdle and I’ve identified a series of
key statistical indicators that will help us pinpoint the live contenders and the best
bets in this year’s field. Here’s what I discovered….
Primary Pointers – (the strongest stats produced by the most recent renewals)….
15 had won last time out (another 2 finished 2nd)
All of the last 18 winners had won a hurdle race
17 were operating at a strike-rate of 50%+ over hurdles
16 had raced over hurdles at least twice
All had run no more than 6 times over hurdles (10 of last 12 winners had run no more than 3 times over hurdles)
15 had run no more than 13 times in total (on flat, in bumpers or over hurdles)
14 had scored a career-best RPR of 133+
17 had scored career-best RPR in one of last 2 runs
6 of the last 9 winners were officially rated 140+
7 of the last 9 winners had made the first 2 in a Graded hurdle race
13 of the last 18 winners had appeared on the flat (incl. 11 of the last 14 winners)
14 of the last 18 winners were sired by a Group 1 winner on the flat
9 of the last 10 winners had a Dosage Profile with a CD figure of 0.39 or less. Get the CD figures for this year’s field here: http://www.pedigreequery.com/
All had been off the track at least 3 weeks (13 no more than 35 days)
All of the last 18 winners had been on the track at some point in the last 55 days
14 of the last 18 winners appeared at Kempton, Sandown or Leopardstown last time out
14 had scored a Topspeed figure of at least 110 over hurdles
9 of the 10 previous winners to race 3 times or more over hurdles had won multiple times
We are dealing here with young and very lightly raced horses – so there is a limit to
the information we have to work with. But there are some strong pointers
nevertheless and horses from top yards who meet a broad sweep of the criteria are
the ones to focus your betting attention on….
On the morning of the race itself….
This season’s edition of the Triumph Hurdle will be run on Friday 18th March.
If you are a subscriber to our service for this season’s Cheltenham Festival, we will
be in your email in-box first thing on the morning of the race with our analysis of
the runners and prevailing conditions, our take on the horses best-qualified to put
up a big run and our betting advice for the race including, as per usual, our
CONTRARIAN PICKS – our idea of the best value-for-money bets at the
prices.
The Profile of an Albert Bartlett Hurdle winner
We move on next to the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (also known as the Spa
Hurdle) – one of the races added to the Festival programme in 2005. It was a Grade
2 race but was awarded Grade 1 status in 2008. This is an event for the novice
staying hurdlers and some very good horses have won it – including subsequent
Gold Cup winner Bobs Worth. A big-field generally heads to post.
The race is a Grade 1 event for novices contested over 3 miles and 12 hurdles on Cheltenham’s New course. The race is open to horses aged 4 and older. The 4yos carry 10-12. The older horses shoulder 11-07. Fillies and mares get the 7lb allowance.
Yards with form – Jonjo O’Neill has won it twice. Irish trainer C Byrnes has
found a strong contender 3 times – saddling a winner and 2 place finishers. Alan
King, Nicky Henderson, Willie Mullins and Paul Nicholls are other trainers
who have produced multiple competitive players in the short history of the event
to date.
Bloodlines of note – King’s Theatre has had 8 of his progeny run in this race –
scoring 2 wins and a place. Bob Back progeny also show signs of being well-
suited. His 3 runners produced a win and a place. Oscar has produced 2 winners
and a place from 10 runners. Milan got the first two home in 2015
In the plate – Berry Geraghty’s 7 rides to date produced a win and 2 places.
Market pointers – Just three winners bigger than 9s in the 10 renewals to date –
but a 33/1 shot won it in 2014 and some big-priced horses have hit the frame.
I’ve studied the last 11 renewals of the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle and I’ve
identified a series of key statistical indicators that will help us pinpoint the live
contenders and the best bets in this year’s field. Here’s what I discovered….
Primary Pointers – (the strongest stats produced by the most recent renewals)….
All of the last 11 winners had scored a career-best hurdling RPR of 139+ (9 had scored 145+)
All had scored career-best RPR in one of last 2 hurdle races
All had won a hurdle race (8 were multiple winners)
All had a Dosage Profile with a CD figure of 0.21 or lower. Get the CD figures for this year’s runners here: http://www.pedigreequery.com/
All had been off the track 4 weeks or more
10 had run in 3 or 4 hurdle races that term
10 had already won a race worth at least £12k to winning connections
10 had a sire with a Stamina Index of 11.4+
9 had raced 3 to 6 times over hurdles
9 had run no more than 8 times in total (incl. flat and NHF runs)
9 were aged 6- or 7-years-old
9 had a strike rate of 25%+ over hurdles (8 were operating at 33%+)
9 had finished 1st or 2nd in 50%+ of hurdle races contested
9 had finished 1st or 2nd last time out (another had finished 3rd)
9 were officially rated 137+ (7 were 140+)
9 had scored career-best RPR over hurdles at 21f+
9 had made the front 2 in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 hurdle race
9 had run in bumpers (just one had run on the flat)
8 had already raced over hurdles at 24f
8 were bred in Ireland (the other 3 in France)
7 had experience of the Cheltenham hurdles (6 had run there twice) and 6 had made a top 3 finish at the track
Just one had run in a Class 1 race at a trip shorter than 20f over hurdles
No shortage of quality pointers to work with there. Horses in this year’s field that
score well on that Winning Profile can be considered very strong contenders….
On the morning of the race itself….
This season’s edition of the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle will be run on Friday 18th
March.
If you are a subscriber to our service for this season’s Cheltenham Festival, we will
be in your email in-box first thing on the morning of the race with our analysis of
the runners and prevailing conditions, our take on the horses best-qualified to put
up a big run and our betting advice for the race including, as per usual, our
CONTRARIAN PICKS – our idea of the best value-for-money bets at the
prices.
The Profile of a Gold Cup winner
The finale of the Festival (at least as far as we are concerned) is the feature race of
the week – the Gold Cup. This is the most prestigious of all NH races – the richest
on the programme. The horse that wins is pretty much seen as the Premier
champion of the sport. The races tests just about everything a horse can be tested
on – speed, jumping, stamina, heart, character and temperament – and represents
the ultimate test in jumps racing.
The race is a Grade 1 event contested over the extended 26f trip and 22 fences on Cheltenham’s New course. The race is open to horses aged 5 and older. The 5yos carry 11-09. Older horses carry 11-10. Mares get the standard 7lb allowance.
Yards with form – Paul Nicholls had the boss hand for quite a few years with
Kauto Star and Denman in his arsenal. More recently Nicky Henderson has
come to the fore with 2 winners in the last 5 years.
Market pointers – It is always tempting to try and find a Hollywood bet in these
big races – but this is one race where that policy has failed in recent times. 14 of
the last 15 winners emerged from the front 3 in the market – and only the 2014
winner, Lord Windermere, went off bigger than 8s. By the time this race comes
round the market generally has a good handle on the participants.
I’ve studied the last 18 renewals of the Gold Cup and I’ve identified a series of key
statistical indicators that will help us pinpoint the live contenders and the best bets
in this year’s field. Here’s what I discovered….
Primary Pointers – (the strongest stats produced by the most recent renewals)….
All of the last 18 winners had produced career-best chase RPR at 24f to 27f
All had been off the track at least 5 weeks (8 of the last 12 winners had been off the track for 62+ days)
17 appeared at Newbury, Cheltenham, Leopardstown or Kempton last time out
17 had appeared at a previous Festival (11 of the last 15 winners had made the top 2 in a Festival race)
17 had raced at least 5 times over fences
17 had raced in no more than 13 chases (7 of the last 8 winners has raced in no more than 9)
17 had raced in no more than 18 races in total
17 had won at least 3 races over fences
16 were aged 7- to 9-years-old
16 had run at least twice over fences that season
16 had run no more than 4 times over fences that season
16 had contested a Grade 1 chase that season (12 hitting the front 2)
16 contested a Grade 1 or a Grade 2 chase last time out
16 had scored an RPR of at least 162 last time out
16 had made the top 2 in a Grade 1 chase over 24f to 27f
16 had scored a career-best Topspeed rating of 150+
16 had form over the Cheltenham fences (13 having hit the top 2 in a chase at the track)
15 had scored a career-best chasing RPR of 169+
15 had won that season
15 had scored career-best rating in one of last 3 races over fences
14 of the last 18 winners were bred in Ireland (the other 3 in France)
13 had a strike-rate of 40%+ over fences at trips of 24f to 27f
13 of the 14 previous winners with an official rating going into the race were rated 166+
13 finished 1st or 2nd last time out
10 of the last 12 winners had already won an Open Grade 1 chase at some point in their chasing career (8 had won one of the last two such races contested)
11 of the last 12 winners had a strike-rate of 45%+ over fences
6 of the last 9 winners had won a chase worth at least £70k that term
The bigger the race the stronger the range of statistical credentials a horse must
possess. Winning Profiles don’t get any stronger than the one above. Horses that
tick most boxes are the ones on which you should be betting….
On the morning of the race itself….
This season’s edition of the Gold Cup will be run on Friday 18th March.
If you are a subscriber to our service for this season’s Cheltenham Festival, we will
be in your email in-box first thing on the morning of the race with our analysis of
the runners and prevailing conditions, our take on the horses best-qualified to put
up a big run and our betting advice for the race including, as per usual, our
CONTRARIAN PICKS – our idea of the best value-for-money bets at the
prices.