CHARLES WAYNE CONSULTING ORLANDO APARTMENT TRENDS 2011.

CHARLES WAYNE

CONSULTING

ORLANDO APARTMENT TRENDSORLANDO APARTMENT TRENDS

2011

POPULATION GROWTHPOPULATION GROWTH

4,000

15,000

27,600

44,200

51,30049,900

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

ANNUAL EMPLOYMENT GROWTHANNUAL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH

55.3

44.7

27.318.4

-66.9

-13.9

4.5

29.638.9

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

BY PLACE OF WORK (000)BY PLACE OF WORK (000)

JOB GROWTH BY MONTHJOB GROWTH BY MONTH

F A J A O D F A J A O D F A J A O

BY PLACE OF WORK: 2008 – 2010 YTDBY PLACE OF WORK: 2008 – 2010 YTD

-18.9

5.06.8

0.8

3.7

-8.7-7.5

10.6

1.3

11.3

J F M A M J J A S O

M-O-M JOB GROWTH: 2010M-O-M JOB GROWTH: 2010BY PLACE OF WORK: 23,300 Y-T-DBY PLACE OF WORK: 23,300 Y-T-D

UNIT CLOSINGSUNIT CLOSINGS

11.4

17.9

6.8

13.4

2.9

4.63.3

2.7 2.31.3

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Q1-3

CLOSING PRICES CLOSING PRICES $388,700

$349,000

$295,800

$247,700$229,500

$240,500$249,600

$220,800

$169,300$156,900

2006 Q4 2007 Q4 2008 Q4 2009 Q4 2010 Q3

SF: -41%SF: -41%

MF: -37%MF: -37%

3,5003,800

4,700

5,200 5,200

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

AVERAGE ANNUAL DEMANDAVERAGE ANNUAL DEMAND2011 - 20152011 - 2015

30.4% 22.5% 22.3% 22.5% 22.8%

OWNERS vs RENTERSOWNERS vs RENTERS

Owners

67%

Renters

33%

% RENTER DEMAND BY TYPE% RENTER DEMAND BY TYPE

SF

28%

1+ Attached

5%2-4 Units13%

5+ Units

50%

Mobile Homes4%

Apartments

74%

Condos

26%

CONVERSION LOSSCONVERSION LOSS -140 PROJECTS / -39,000 UNITS

590 596 592

563 567

604

623 623

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

APARTMENTAPARTMENTCOMPLEXESCOMPLEXES

150,100151,000

147,200

134,500137,000

144,700

149,700151,200

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

RENTABLE UNITSRENTABLE UNITS+1,500+1,500

RENTABLE UNITS BY BRsRENTABLE UNITS BY BRs

Studio2%

1BR

33%

2BR

47%

3BR

15%4BR

3%

UNITS UNDER CONSTRUCTIONUNITS UNDER CONSTRUCTION 13,000

8,200

5,6005,800

4,7003,9003,800

5,600

3,7003,200

1,500

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

2010

OCCUPANCYOCCUPANCY

91.6%

94.8%96.1%

94.1%

90.8%89.6%

88.2%

91.1%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

90.7%92.8%

93.9%91.8%

93.5%

88.4%

91.1%

1980-841985-89

1990-941995-99

2000-042005-09

Total

OCCUPANCY BY YEAR BUILTOCCUPANCY BY YEAR BUILT

VACANCY vs UNEMPLOYMENTVACANCY vs UNEMPLOYMENT

3/903/91

3/923/93

3/943/95

3/963/97

3/983/99

3/003/01

3/023/03

3/043/05

3/063/07

3/083/09

3/10

0

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

Vacancy Unemployment

6,4005,800

-1,700

-14,900

-2,200

5,300

2,400

5,700

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

ANNUAL UNIT ABSORPTIONANNUAL UNIT ABSORPTION

RENT GROWTH: 2003-2010RENT GROWTH: 2003-2010

1.3%2.4% 2.0%

13.1%

0.6%-0.6% -3.4% 0%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

$544 $869

MEDIAN RENTS: 2000-2010MEDIAN RENTS: 2000-2010

00/Q301/Q3

02/Q303/Q3

04/Q305/Q3

06/Q307/Q3

08/Q309/Q3

10/Q3

$0.50

$0.60

$0.70

$0.80

$0.90

$1.00

$1.10

$1.20

$1.30

$1.40

Studios 1BR

2BR 3BR

TOPTOPPERFORMERSPERFORMERS

UrbanUrbanLifestyleLifestyleProjectsProjects

$1.20 - $2.15

TRENDSTRENDS

Land Supply ? Land Values? Occupancies? Rents? Incentives? New Units? Urban Town Centers? TOD Developments? Student Housing?

?

CHARLES WAYNE CONSULTING

[email protected]