1 Charles Jones and Leila M. V. Charles Jones and Leila M. V. Carvalho Carvalho University of California Santa University of California Santa Barbara Barbara Changes in the Activity of the Madden- Changes in the Activity of the Madden- Julian Oscillation during 1958-2004 Julian Oscillation during 1958-2004 Case to Case Seasonal Variatio ns Interannua l Variations Long-term Behavior Time scales ? ? ?? ?? ??? ??? ???? ???? Extensively studied over the years but no comprehensive theory Behavior on time scales longer than interannual is unknown
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Charles Jones and Leila M. V. Carvalho University of California Santa Barbara
Changes in the Activity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation during 1958-2004. Charles Jones and Leila M. V. Carvalho University of California Santa Barbara. Extensively studied over the years but no comprehensive theory Behavior on time scales longer than interannual is unknown. Case to Case. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Charles Jones and Leila M. V. CarvalhoCharles Jones and Leila M. V. Carvalho
University of California Santa BarbaraUniversity of California Santa Barbara
Changes in the Activity of the Madden-Julian Changes in the Activity of the Madden-Julian
Oscillation during 1958-2004Oscillation during 1958-2004
Case to Case
Seasonal Variations
Interannual Variations
Long-term Behavior
Time scales
?? ???? ?????? ????????
Extensively studied over the years but no comprehensive theory
Behavior on time scales longer than interannual is unknown
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This Study
Are there linear trends in the activity of the MJO? (intensity
& number of events)
Does the MJO exhibit regimes of high and low activity?
Are there significant seasonal differences in the activity of
the MJO on time scales longer than interannual?
Note: MJO refers to summer and winter events
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Identification of MJO events
• NCEP/NCAR U200, U850 (1958-2004) 20-100 day anomalies
• OLR (1979-2004) 20-100 day anomaliesEOF analysis
• Summer domain: south Asian monsoon (Lawrence and Webster 2001) • Winter domain: Equatorial region (Kessler 2001)