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Chapter 33 studies how nations keep their international accounts, what determines the balance of payments, and how the value of the dollar is determined in the foreign exchange market.
Describe a country’s balance of payments accounts and explain what determines the amount of international borrowing and lending.
There are three balance of payments accounts: the current account, the capital account, and the official settlements account. The current account balance equals exports minus imports, plus net interest and
transfers received from abroad. The capital account is a record of foreign investment in the United States minus U.S. investment abroad. The official settlements account is a record of the change in U.S. official reserves. The sum of the balances on the three accounts always equals zero. We pay for imports that exceed the value of our exports by borrowing from the rest of the world. A net borrower is a coun-try that is borrowing more from the rest of the world than it is lending to the rest of the world and a net lender is a country that is lending more to the rest of the world than it is borrowing from the rest of the world. A debtor nation is a country that during its entire history has borrowed more from the rest
of the world than it has lent to it and a creditor nation is a country that during its entire history has invested more in the rest of the world than other countries have invested in it. Net exports, X – M,
equals the sum of the private sector balance, S – I, and the government sector balance, NT − G.
Explain how the exchange rate is determined and why it fluctuates. Foreign currency is needed to buy goods or invest in another country. The foreign exchange rate is the price at which one currency exchanges for another. It is determined by demand and supply in the for-eign exchange market. The quantity of dollars demanded increases when the exchange rate falls. The demand for dollars changes and the demand curve for dollars shifts if the U.S. interest rate differential
or the expected future exchange rate changes. A rise in either increases the demand for dollars. The
quantity of dollars supplied increases when the exchange rate rises. The supply of dollars changes and the supply curve of dollars shifts if the U.S. interest rate differential or the expected future exchange rate changes. A rise in either decreases the supply of dollars. At the equilibrium exchange rate, the quantity of dollars demanded equals the quantity of dollars supplied. The exchange rate is volatile be-cause factors that change the demand also change the supply. Exchange rate expectations are influ-enced by purchasing power parity, a situation in which money buys the same amount of goods and services in different currencies, and interest rate parity, a situation in which the interest rate in one cur-
rency equals the interest rate in another currency once exchange rate changes are taken into account. The Fed and other central banks can intervene directly in the foreign exchange market by pegging the exchange rate. If the peg overvalues the exchange rate, the central bank runs out of foreign reserves; if
the peg undervalues the exchange rate, the central bank accumulates foreign reserves.
2. Suppose the official settlements account equals zero. In this case, what is the relationship be-tween the current account and the capital ac-count? Why does this relationship exist?
Solutions to Additional Practice Problems 33.1 1a. The current account balance equals exports
plus net interest plus net transfers minus im-ports. So the current account balance equals $1,446 billion + $36 billion + (−$90 billion) −
$2,203 billion = −$811 billion.
1b. The capital account balance equals foreign investment in the United States minus U.S.
investment abroad plus any statistical dis-crepancy. So the capital account balance equals $1,882 billion − $1,055 billion + (−$18
billion) = $809 billion.
1c. The official settlements account balance is
the negative of the change in U.S. official re-serves. When reserves decrease by $2 billion,
the official settlements account balance is $2
billion.
1d. Keep in mind that the sum of the current ac-
count, capital account, and official settle-ments account is zero. So, if the previous an-
swers are correct, they will sum to zero. For-tunately, they do: −$811 billion + $809 billion
+ $2 billion = $0.
1e. Interest payments reflect the value of out-
standing debts. The United States is a debtor nation because the value of interest pay-ments received from the rest of the world is
less than the value of interest payments made to the rest of the world.
2. If the official settlements account equals zero,
then the deficit in the current account equals the surplus in the capital account. Or, if the official settlements account equals zero, then the surplus in the current account equals the deficit in the capital account. This relationship exists because the sum of the current account,
capital account, and the official settlements ac-count equals zero. If the official settlements ac-count equals zero, the current account balance must equal the negative of the capital account balance.
Self Test 33.1 Fill in the blanks The ____ (current; capital; official settlements) account records payments for the imports of goods and services. The ____ (current; capital; official settlements) account records foreign in-
vestment in the United States minus U.S. in-
vestment abroad. The sum of the balances on
current account, capital account, and the official settlements account always equals ____ (zero;
Item (billions of dollars)U.S. investment abroad 400Exports of goods and services 1,000Net transfers 0Change in official reserves 10Net interest 0Foreign investment in the United States 800
3. The table above has balance of payment data for the United States.
a. What is the capital account balance?
b. What is the official settlements balance?
c. What is the current account balance?
d. What is the value of imports of goods and services?
4. What is a net borrower? A debtor nation? Is
it possible for a nation to be net borrower and yet not be a debtor nation?
Item (billions of dollars)Saving 1,600Investment 1,900Government expenditures 1,300Net taxes 1,400
5. The table above has data for the United
States.
a. What is the private sector balance?
b. What is the government sector balance?
c. What is net exports?
Additional Exercises (also in MyEconLab Test A) It is 2014, and the U.S. economy records the fol-
lowing transactions: Exports of goods and ser-vices, $1,800 billion; interest payments to the rest of the world, $550 billion; interest received
from the rest of the world, $350 billion; decrease
in U.S. official reserves, $10 billion; government sector balance, $200 billion; saving, $1,800 bil-lion; investment, $2,000 billion; net transfers are
zero.
1. Calculate the current account balance, the
capital account balance, the official settle-
ments account balance, and imports of goods and services.
2. Is the United States a debtor or creditor na-
tion in 2014?
3. If net taxes increase by $100 billion, what happens to the capital account balance?
CHECKPOINT 33.2
Explain how the exchange rate is determined and why it fluctuates.
Quick Review • U.S. interest rate differential In the foreign
exchange market, an increase in the U.S.
interest rate differential increases the
demand for dollars and decreases the
supply of dollars.
• Expected future exchange rate In the for-
eign exchange market, a rise in the ex-pected future exchange rate increases the demand for dollars and decreases the
supply of dollars.
Additional Practice Problems 33.2 1. The figure
shows the
supply and de-mand curves for
dollars in the
foreign ex-
change market.
a. What is the
equilibrium
exchange rate?
b. Suppose the U.S. interest rate rises so that
the U.S. interest rate differential increases.
Assume that the effect on the supply is the same as the effect on the demand. In the
figure, show the effect of this change. Does the equilibrium exchange rate rise or fall? Does the equilibrium quantity of dol-
lars exchanged increase or decrease?
2. How and why does an increase in the expected future exchange rate change the current de-mand for U.S. dollars and the demand curve
for dollars? How and why does an increase in the expected future exchange rate change the supply of U.S. dollars and the supply curve of dollars? What is the effect on the equilibrium exchange rate?
Solutions to Additional Practice Problems 33.2 1a. The figure shows that the initial equilibrium
exchange rate is 0.8 euros per dollar.
1b. The increase
in the U.S. in-
terest rate dif-
ferential in-
creases the
demand for
U.S. dollars
and simultan-
eously de-creases the
supply of U.S. dollars. As a
result the demand curve for dollars shifts
rightward, from D0 to D1 and the supply curve of dollars shifts leftward, from S0 to S1.
The exchange rate rises. In the figure the ex-change rate rises to 0.9 euros per dollar. Be-cause the effect on the demand is the same as
the effect on the supply, the curves shift by the same amount, so the equilibrium quantity
of dollars exchanged does not change.
2. An increase in the expected future exchange rate increases the demand for U.S. dollars
and shifts the demand curve rightward. The demand for U.S. dollars increases because at
the current exchange rate people want to buy U.S. dollars now and sell them in the future
at the higher expected exchange rate. An in-
crease in the expected future exchange rate decreases the supply of U.S. dollars and shifts the supply curve leftward. The supply of U.S. dollars decreases because people would rather keep the dollars until they can sell them in the future at the higher expected exchange rate. Because the demand for dol-
lars increases and the supply of dollars de-creases, the current equilibrium exchange rate rises.
Self Test 33.2 Fill in the blanks The price at which one currency exchanges for another is called a foreign ____ (exchange rate;
interest rate). If the dollar falls in value against the Mexican peso, the dollar has ____ (appre-ciated; depreciated). A rise in exchange rate ____ (decreases; increases) the quantity of U.S. dollars demanded. An increase in the demand
for dollars shifts the demand curve for dollars
____ (leftward; rightward) and an increase in
the supply of dollars shifts the supply curve of dollars ____ (leftward; rightward). The ex-change rate is volatile because an influence that changes the demand for dollars often ____ (changes; does not change) the supply of dol-
lars. An increase in the expected future ex-change rate ____ (raises; lowers) the equili-brium exchange rate. Purchasing power parity is equal value of ____ (interest rates; money). If the Fed buys dollars on the foreign exchange market, the exchange rate ____ (rises; falls).
True or false 1. The U.S. foreign exchange rate changes in-
frequently.
2. If the exchange rate increases from 0.9 euros
per dollar to 1.1 euros per dollar, the dollar has appreciated.
3. The larger the value of U.S. exports, the larg-er is the quantity of U.S. dollars demanded.
4. An increase in the U.S. exchange rate from
1.10 euros per dollar to 1.20 euros per dollar increases the supply of U.S. dollars and shifts
the supply curve of dollars rightward.
5. A rise in the expected future exchange rate increases the demand for dollars and also the
supply of dollars and might raise or lower the exchange rate.
6. The equilibrium U.S. exchange rate is the ex-change rate that sets the quantity of dollars demanded equal to the quantity of dollars supplied.
7. An increase in the U.S. interest rate differen-
tial raises the U.S. exchange rate.
8. To prevent the price of the euro from falling, the European Central Bank might sell euros on the foreign exchange market.
Multiple choice 1. The foreign exchange market is the market
in which
a. all international transactions occur.
b. currencies are exchanged solely by gov-ernments.
c. goods and services are exchanged be-tween governments.
d. the currency of one country is exchanged for the currency of another.
e. the world's governments collect their ta-riff revenue.
2. When Del Monte, an American company, purchases Mexican tomatoes, Del Monte
pays for the tomatoes with
a. Canadian dollars.
b. Mexican pesos.
c. gold. d. Mexican goods and services. e. euros.
3. If today the exchange rate is 1.00 euro per
dollar and tomorrow the exchange rate is 0.98 euros per dollar, then the dollar ____ and the euro____.
a. appreciated; appreciated
b. appreciated; depreciated
c. depreciated; appreciated
d. depreciated; depreciated
e. depreciated; did not change
4. In the foreign exchange market, as the U.S. exchange rate rises from 0.95 euros per dol-
lar to 1.05 euros per dollar, other things re-maining the same, the
a. quantity of dollars demanded increases. b. demand curve for dollars shifts
rightward.
c. demand curve for dollars shifts leftward.
d. quantity of dollars demanded decreases. e. supply curve of dollars shifts rightward.
5. In the foreign exchange market, the de-
mand for dollars increases and the demand
curve for dollars shifts rightward if the
a. U.S. interest rate differential increases.
b. expected future exchange rate falls. c. foreign interest rate rises. d. U.S. interest rate falls.
e. exchange rate falls.
6. As the exchange rate ____, the quantity of
U.S. dollars supplied ____.
a. rises; increases
b. falls; increases
c. falls; remains the same
d. rises; decreases
e. rises; remains the same
7. In the foreign exchange market, the supply curve of dollars is
a. upward sloping. b. downward sloping. c. vertical.
d. horizontal.
e. identical to the demand curve for dollars.
8. Everything else remaining the same, in the foreign exchange market which of the fol-
lowing increases the supply of U.S. dollars?
a. The European interest rate rises.
b. The expected future exchange rate rises. c. The U.S. interest rate rises.
d. The U.S. interest rate differential increas-
es.
e. The exchange rate falls.
9. When there is a shortage of dollars in the foreign exchange market, the
a. demand curve for dollars shifts leftward
to restore the equilibrium. b. U.S. exchange rate will appreciate. c. U.S. exchange rate will depreciate. d. supply curve of dollars shifts leftward to
restore the equilibrium. e. supply curve of dollars shifts rightward
5. If the Fed believes the exchange rate is too low and wants to raise it, what action does
the Fed undertake in the foreign exchange market? What limits the extent to which the
Fed can undertake this action?
Additional Exercises (also in MyEconLab Test A) Use the following for the next 3 exercises. Sup-
pose that yesterday, the Canadian dollar ($C)
was trading on the foreign exchange market at $0.85 U.S. per $C. Today, the Canadian dollar is
trading at $0.80 U.S. per $C. 1. Which of the two currencies (the Canadian
dollar or the U.S. dollar) has appreciated and which has depreciated today?
2. List the events that could have caused to-
day’s change in the value of the Canadian dollar on the foreign exchange market. Did the events on you list increase or decrease the demand for Canadian dollars, the supply of Canadian dollars, or both the demand for
CHECKPOINT 33.1 Fill in the blanks The current account records payments for the imports of goods and services. The capital ac-count records foreign investment in the United
States minus U.S. investment abroad. The sum
of the balances on current account, capital ac-count, and the official settlements account al-
ways equals zero. The United States is a debtor
nation. The United States is borrowing for in-
vestment.
True or false 1. False; page 850
2. True; page 850
3. False; page 850
4. True; page 851
5. False; page 852
6. True; page 853
7. False; pages 854-855
8. True; page 855
Multiple choice 11. c; page 850
12. d; page 850
13. a; page 850
14. d; page 850
15. c; page 850
16. a; page 850
17. c; page 850
18. c; page 850
19. b; page 852
10. d; page 852
11. d; page 855
12. a; page 855
Short answer and numeric questions 1. The current account records payments for
imports, receipts from exports, net interest and net transfers received from abroad. The
capital account records foreign investment in the United States minus U.S. investments
abroad. The official settlements account
records changes in U.S. official reserves, the
government’s holding of foreign currency; page 850.
2. The current account balance plus the capital account balance plus official settlements ac-count balance sums to zero. So if the official
settlements account equals zero, a $350 bil-lion current account deficit means there is a
$350 billion capital account surplus; page 850.
3. a. The capital account balance equals foreign investment in the United States minus
U.S. investment abroad, which is $400 bil-
lion; pages 850-851.
b. The official settlements balance is the neg-
ative of the change in official reserves, or −$10 billion; pages 850-851.
c. The sum of the current account balance,
the capital account balance, and the offi-
cial settlements account balance is zero.
The capital account balance is $400 billion and the official settlements account bal-
ance is −$10 billion, so the current account
balance is −$390 billion; pages 850-851.
d. The current account balance equals ex-ports minus imports plus net interest plus net transfers received from abroad. Net in-
terest and net transfers are given as zero. The current account balance is −$390 bil-
lion and exports are $1,000 billion, so im-
ports equal $1,390 billion; pages 850-851.
4. A net borrower is a country that is borrow-ing more from the rest of the world than it is lending to the rest of the world. A debtor na-tion is a country that during its entire history has borrowed more from the rest of the
world than it has lent to it. It is possible for a nation to be a net borrower but not be a deb-
tor nation. A country can be a creditor nation and a net borrower. This situation occurs if a
creditor nation is, during a particular year, borrowing more from the rest of the world
than it is lending to the rest of the world; page 852.
supply of dollars and shifts the supply curve from S0 to S1. The exchange rate ris-es. In the figure, the exchange rate rises to 1.05 euros per dollar; pages 860, 863, 865.
2. The fall in the expected future exchange rate decreases the demand for dollars and in-
creases the supply of dollars. The demand curve shifts leftward from D0 to D1 and the
supply curve shifts rightward from S0 to S1.
The exchange falls from 1.00 euro per dollar to 0.95 euros per dollar in Figure 33.4. The
exchange rate depreciates; pages 860, 863,
865.
Short answer and numeric questions 1. When the exchange rate rises from 0.90 euros
per dollar to 1.00 euro per dollar, the dollar appreciates because the dollar buys more eu-
ros. The euro depreciates because it now takes 1 euro to buy a dollar instead of 0.9 eu-
ros to buy a dollar; pages 857-858.
2. The larger the value of U.S. exports, the larg-
er is the quantity of U.S. dollars demanded. This relationship exists because U.S. firms want to be paid for their goods and services in dollars; page 858.
3. The larger the value of U.S. imports, the larger the quantity of U.S. dollars supplied. This relationship exists because U.S. con-
sumers must pay for their imports in foreign currency. To obtain foreign currency, U.S. consumers supply dollars; page 861.
4. An increase in the European interest rate de-
creases the U.S. interest rate differential. The
smaller the U.S. interest rate differential, the
smaller is the demand for U.S. assets and the
smaller the demand for dollars. And the
smaller the U.S. interest rate differential, the
greater is the demand for foreign assets and the greater is the supply of dollars. So when the European interest rate rises, the demand
for dollars decreases, the supply of dollars increases, and the equilibrium exchange rate falls; pages 860, 863, 865.
5. If the Fed wants to raise the exchange rate, it will buy dollars. The Fed would have to sell U.S. official reserves to buy dollars. The Fed is limited by its quantity of official reserves. If the Fed persisted in this action, eventually it would run out of reserves and would be