Chapter 6 - Jacaranda · of rising world temperatures over time. Most ... AND CLIMATE CHANGE Chapter 6 ... 3. Heat radiating back into space 4.

GEOGRAPHY 2

130

Global warming describes the overall trend

of rising world temperatures over time. Most

scientists agree that the recent gradual

increase in temperatures has been caused by

human activities, especially the burning of

fossil fuels for energy.

The main impact of global warming is

climate change. Evidence of climate change

includes an increase in average global

temperatures; ice melting in polar and

mountain regions; rising sea levels; and an

increase in extreme weather events. Action

must be taken now to reduce greenhouse gas

emissions and the future impact of global

warming on the climate.

Geographical knowledge and understanding

• Develop knowledge and understanding of

global warming and climate change.

• Investigate the interaction between people and

the atmosphere and the response of the

atmosphere and its effect on people.

• Investigate and develop policies to manage

climate change.

Geospatial skills

• Interpret maps, photographs and graphs in

relation to climate change.

• Compare maps to find the spatial association

between carbon dioxide production and

Gross Domestic Product.

GLOBAL

WARMING

AND CLIMATE

CHANGE

Chapter 6

Crowds watch as the 70-metre front wall of thePerito Moreno Glacier in Argentina breaks down in

March 2004. The glacier is breaking up because ithas been weakened by global warming.

CHAPTER 6: GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE

131

carbon credit: a measurable action, such as planting trees, that helps reduce the atmospheric concentration of CO2. One carbon credit is equal to one tonne of CO2. Carbon credits can be traded.carbon sinks: places or processes that remove greenhouse gases from the atmospherechoropleth maps: these maps use light and dark shades of the same colour to show a pattern. The darker shades show ‘most’ of a feature and the lighter shades show the ‘least’.climate: the long-term variation in the atmosphere, mainly relating to temperature and precipitationclimate change: any change in climate over time, whether due to natural processes or human activities CSIRO: Australia’s Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisationdengue fever: primarily a disease of tropical and subtropical areas, spread by a species of mosquitoemissions: substances such as gases or particles discharged into the atmosphereenhanced greenhouse effect: increased ability of the Earth’s atmosphere to trap heat, warming the Earth and the atmospherefossil fuels: fuels, such as coal, oil and natural gas, that come from the breakdown of organic matter. They have formed in the ground over millions of years.global warming: describes the observable trend of rising world temperatures over the past century, particularly during the last couple of decades greenhouse effect: the result of the sun’s heat being trapped within the atmosphere rather than reflected out into space. This causes a significant increase in temperature.islet: a small islandper capita: a measurement presented in terms of units per personpermafrost: ground that has remained below 0˚C for at least two consecutive years photosynthesis: process in plants of using the energy from sunlight to convert water and carbon dioxide into carbohydrates and oxygenprecipitation: water falling from the atmosphere to the Earth as rain, snow, hail, sleet or dewratify: to make an agreement official and bindingrespiration: process used by organisms to obtain energy by using oxygen and releasing carbon dioxidespatial association: the relationship between two or more features in a selected regionspatial change over time: the degree to which an area has changed its geographic characteristics, features or patterns of use over a period of timespatial concepts: key geographic ideas used by geographers to describe the world around themspatial interaction: the strengths of the relationships between phenomena and places in the environment, and the degree to which they influence or interact with each other thermal expansion: when water is warmed, it expands and therefore takes up more spacetundra: a treeless plain that is characteristic of the arctic and subarctic region

GEOGRAPHY 2

132

6.1

Global warming describes the observable trendof rising world temperatures over the past century,particularly during the last couple of decades. Theaverage global surface temperature has warmedby about 0.74 °C in the past 100 years. Most scien-tists agree that this increase in temperature is dueto human activities, especially the burning offossil fuels.

Global warming is causing climate change.Climate change means any change in climate,whether due to natural processes or human activi-ties. Evidence of the current change in our climateincludes an increase in average global tempera-tures, ice melting in polar and mountain regions,rising sea levels and more extreme weather events.

Climate change is not new — it has been hap-pening for millions of years. Ice ages come andgo, and sea levels rise and fall. During colderperiods, glaciers increase, icesheets and thepolar icecaps expand and sea levels fall. During

GLOBAL WARMING

CLIMATE CHANGE

warmer periods, glaciers, icesheets and icecapsretreat, and sea levels rise.

However, the current rapid rate of warmingand its impact on climate may damage manyspecies and ecosystems. The Earth’s animals andplants are used to slow changes, which allowtime for species to adjust to climatic changessuch as rising temperatures.

The greenhouse effect is a natural process.The gases in the Earth’s atmosphere act like theglass of a greenhouse, trapping the sun’swarmth. Without the atmosphere, the Earth’ssurface would be about 15 °C cooler than it is.

THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT

UNDERSTANDING GLOBAL

WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE

The enhanced greenhouse effect

1. Heat from the sun

2. Heat trapped by greenhouse gases

3. Heat radiating back into space

4. Greenhouse gases produced by power stations and industry burning fossil fuels

5. Carbon monoxide emitted from vehicle exhausts

6. Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) escaping from old dumped refrigerators

7. Nitrous oxide released from fertilisers

8. Methane from waste dumps and from animals

9. Water vapour from cooling towers

10. Carbon dioxide released by logging forests

10

3

1

5

2

6

7

8

4

9


133

Water vapour and gases such as carbon dioxideand methane are responsible for the greenhouseeffect. These gases make up only a small pro-portion of the atmosphere, but any variation intheir amounts can have an effect on the Earth’stemperature.

The enhanced greenhouse effect is theincreased ability of the Earth’s atmosphere totrap heat. Since the Industrial Revolution, thecomposition of the Earth’s atmosphere haschanged. Humans have added extra carbondioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases to theair, particularly by burning fossil fuels (oil, coaland gas) and by cutting down trees. With moregases in the air to trap heat, the Earth’s tem-perature is rising.

The carbon cycle explains how carbon dioxide isadded to and removed from the atmosphere.Carbon dioxide is exchanged by photosynthesisand respiration. Oceans act as carbon sinks,absorbing carbon dioxide and eventually trans-porting and storing it deep in the ocean floor.Over enormous periods of time, carbon can alsobe converted to other carbon resources such asoil, coal, gas and coral reefs.

An imbalance has occurred in the carbon cyclebecause more carbon is being released than isbeing absorbed or stored away. This has occurredvery rapidly since the Industrial Revolution —before the 1800s, the concentration of CO2 in the

THE GLOBAL CARBON CYCLE

atmosphere was about 280 ppm (parts permillion); it was 380 ppm in 2005, an increase ofabout 30 per cent in just over 200 years.

Understand1. Outline the difference between global warming

and climate change.2. Use the analogy of a car in the sun with its

windows up to explain the greenhouse effect.3. Explain the difference between the greenhouse

effect and the enhanced greenhouse effect.4. Name two important carbon sinks. 5. Explain why an imbalance in the carbon cycle

has occurred in recent times.

Think6. Study the diagram of the enhanced greenhouse

effect. List five human activities that add greenhouse gases to the environment.

7. Study the diagram of the global carbon cycle.(a) List the locations with the three highest

concentrations of carbon.(b) How can trees both contribute to, and

reduce, the amount of atmospheric carbon?8. In relation to current climate change, why can’t

the conversion of carbon to oil, gas and coal be regarded as a useful sink?

9. What factors could affect the ability of the Earth’s ecosystems to adapt to global warming and climate change?

Worksheets

6.1 Climate change crossword

Atmosphere 750

0.55.5Fossil fuels and

cement production

4000

Vegetation 610121.3

60

90

92

40

0.2

91.6 100

50

4

6

6

60

1.6

Rivers

Surface ocean

Deep ocean

38 100

Sediments 150

Marine biota 3

Dissolved organic

carbon <700

CO2

Soils

1580

1020

Carbon fluxes

(gigatons of

carbon/year)

Carbon storage

and sinks

(gigatons of carbon)

The global carbon cycle

10 000

350

300

250

5000 0

Carb

on

dio

xid

e (

pp

m)

Time (before 2005)

400

350

300

1800 1900 2000

Year

Change in carbon dioxide levels over time

ON

THE CD-R

OM

The greenhouseeffect

GEOGRAPHY 2

134

6.2

Observations of global warming and climatechange have been noted for many years, but arenow forming more obvious patterns.

Records of temperatures around the world,kept since the 1860s, show an upward trend inglobal average air and ocean temperatures.During the last century, the Earth’s averagetemperature increased by 0.74 ºC. In the last50 years, there were more hot days and nights,and fewer cold days and nights. Nine of the tenwarmest years since 1860 occurred between 1996and 2006.

Average global temperature, 1880–2004

Sea levels rose at an average rate of 1.8 mmper year over the last thirty years. A rise in sealevel is due to the warming and consequentexpansion of sea water plus the inflow of waterfrom melting icecaps, icesheets and glaciers.Warmer temperatures have caused widespreadmelting of snow and ice and the retreat ofglaciers, icesheets and icecaps.

In some regions, precipitation patterns havealtered. Parts of southern Asia, southern Africaand southern Australia are getting drier.Northern Europe, northern and central Asia andeastern parts of North and South America aregetting wetter.

Extreme weather events such as heatwaves,droughts, floods and tropical cyclones are becomingmore frequent and more intense. Other changes tonormal patterns have been observed in some

PATTERNS OF WARMING

1880

Year1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Tem

pera

ture

(°C

)

14.8

14.6

14.4

14.2

14.0

13.8

13.6

13.4

13.2

regions: the early arrival of spring and the latearrival of autumn; changes in plant growth andanimal behaviour; and the spread of disease.

Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology has calculatedthat Australia has warmed by 1 ºC since recordsbegan in 1861. Observations of global warmingand changing climate patterns in Australiainclude:• an increase in the number of very hot days• an increase in night-time temperatures• a decrease in the number of very cold days• a decrease in the occurrence of frost• an increase in intense cyclones and severe low-

pressure systems in the south-east• an increase in the rate of flooding and of

drought over the past 20 years.

Some scientists argue that the climate change weare experiencing is due to natural cycles that occurover millions of years. These cycles correspondwith cold (ice ages) and warm (interglacial)periods. As a global average, ice ages have beenabout 10 ºC cooler than we experience now, whilethe interglacial periods have been about the sametemperature as today.

However, the rate of warming now is fargreater than ever before. Most scientists agreethat the current increase in global temperaturesis mostly due to human activity rather thannatural causes. Data show that the concentrationof carbon dioxide in the atmosphere hasincreased rapidly since the Industrial Revol-ution. This corresponds with an increase inburning fossil fuels for energy. Analysis of airbubbles trapped in Antarctic ice shows that theconcentration of CO2 is the highest it has beenfor at least 650 000 years. There is now more CO2

in the atmosphere than humans have everexperienced before.

Using computer modelling, most scientistshave also concluded that the rapid warmingcannot be solely explained by natural causessuch as increased solar or volcanic activity.

PATTERNS IN AUSTRALIA

WHAT CAUSES WARMING?

ARE THERE PATTERNS RELATED

TO CLIMATE CHANGE?


135

Scientists use computer models to make projec-tions about future patterns of warming. Themodels used are based on factors such as CO2 andother greenhouse gas emissions, degrees ofeconomic growth and population increase, andactions taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

In 1988, the Intergovernmental Panel on Cli-mate Change (IPCC) was established by twoUnited Nations organisations: the World Meteor-ological Organization and the United NationsEnvironment Programme.

The purpose of the IPCC is to study climatechange. Its role is to:

• examine current scientific knowledge about cli-mate change

• assess the world’s vulnerability to climatechange and how to adapt to it

• assess options for limiting greenhouse gasemissions and other ways to mitigate climatechange.The IPCC released its fourth report in 2007.

Its estimates of projected future climate changeinclude:• A warming of about 0.2 ºC per decade will

occur for the next two decades. Even if theconcentration of greenhouse gases is kept

FUTURE PATTERNS constant at year 2000 levels, a furtherwarming of about 0.1 ºC would be expected.

• By 2099, the global temperatures are likely toincrease to between 1.1 ºC and 6.4 ºC, dependingon the rate of greenhouse gas emissions.

• By 2099, the global average rise in sea levelis likely to increase to between 0.18 and0.59 metres. These estimates do not includepotential melting of the Greenland andAntarctic icesheets because there is stillinsufficient research and data about this.

• Over the next century, snow cover is projectedto contract, depth of permafrost is projectedto decrease, sea ice is projected to shrink andheatwaves will continue to become more fre-quent.

• Over the next century, heavy precipitationevents will continue to become more frequent.Increases in the amount of precipitation arevery likely in high latitudes while decreasesare likely in most subtropical land areas. Dueto increases in tropical sea surface tempera-tures, it is likely that tropical cyclones willbecome more intense.

• Carbon dioxide emissions already in theatmosphere will continue to contribute towarming and rising sea levels for centuriesbecause this gas lasts in the atmosphere for avery long time.

500

000

600

000

700

000

300

000

400

000

100

000

200

000 0

CO

2 (

pp

m)

400

350

300

250

200

150

Years before present

Atmospheric CO2 concentrations from ice cores over the past 650 000 years

An ice core from deep within the Antarctic icesheet will be analysed to find out information about climate change.

GEOGRAPHY 2

136

SKILLS essentials

Comparing maps to find spatial associationsGeographers use spatial concepts to describe the world around them. One of these is spatial association, which shows the relationship between two or more features in a selected region. Patterns can be observed by comparing choropleth maps.

A strong positive association means that there is an obvious pattern, e.g. high CO2 production and high energy use, or low CO2 production and low energy use. A strong negative association would be a general pattern that shows high CO2 production and low energy use, or vice versa. A medium association would show a pattern, but with some variation. A weak spatial association would show little or no pattern.

Study these maps to find any relationships.1. Name three countries that have high energy use

and high CO2 emissions.2. Name three countries that have low energy use

and low CO2 emissions.3. List two countries that have high energy use

and low or medium CO2 emissions.4. Are there any countries that have low energy

use and high CO2 emissions?5. Write a summary statement describing the

degree of spatial association between CO2 emissions and energy use.

6. As a class, brainstorm some possible reasons to explain this pattern.

Carbon dioxide emissions, per person

Energy use per person

The darker the colour, the higher the average CO2 emissions per person

The darker the colour, the higher the average energy use per person

Equator

Tropic of Cancer

Tropic of Capricorn

Arctic Circle

A R C T I C O C E A N

AT L A N T I C

O C E A N

I N D I A N

O C E A N

P A C I F I C

O C E A N

A T L A N T I C

O C E A N

Carbon dioxide emissions

(tonnes per person), 2002

Over 10.0

6.0 to 10.0

3.0 to 5.9

1.0 to 2.9

Under 1.0

No data

0 2000 4000 km NN

Equator

Tropic of Cancer

Tropic of Capricorn

Arctic Circle

A R C T I C O C E A N

AT L A N T I C

O C E A N

I N D I A N

O C E A N

P A C I F I C

O C E A N

A T L A N T I C

O C E A N

0 2000 4000 km N

Energy use (kilograms of oilequivalent per person), 2001

Over 5000

2500 to 4999

1000 to 2499

500 to 999

Under 500

No data

N


137

Understand

1. Briefly describe the change in global temperature between 1880 and 2004.

2. List observations that reflect patterns of global warming and climate change.

3. What evidence is there that climate change is occurring in Australia?

4. What do most scientists think is causing global warming?

5. Describe the change in CO2 and temperature over the last 650 000 years.

6. Refer to the map of carbon dioxide emissions per person. Describe the global pattern of per capita carbon dioxide production.

Think

7. Compare the graphs showing total and per capita carbon dioxide emissions.(a) How are the data different?(b) Why must you be careful when reading and

interpreting these types of data?(c) Which data might the following prefer to

use? Justify your answer.• Coal industry• Environmental support groups

• A Pacific Island leader• A government supporting the coal

industry and economic growth• Renewable energy businesses

8. Predict what will happen to CO2 production in Australia if emissions continue at their present rate and the population increases.

9. Outline why Australia is one of the highest per capita producers of carbon dioxide in the world.

Communicate10. What is the IPCC? Describe the role of

the IPCC.11. Describe at least four future trends projected

in the IPCC 2007 report.12. Describe the spatial interaction between people

and climate change. Describe how human activity has affected the climate and how climate change, in turn, is affecting people.

13. Conduct a debate on the following: Is it fair to ask poor countries that produce low per capita emissions to reduce emissions further, while rich countries that produce high per capita emissions do not cut their emissions?

Worksheets

6.2 Scanning images

It is important to be careful about how data areread and interpreted. When looking at the totalproduction of CO2, Australia produces onlyaround 1.4 per cent of the world total of energy-related CO2 emissions. This compares favourablywith the USA and China.

However, when CO2 production is measured ona per capita basis, it shows how much isproduced for every person in the country. Thisfigure allows emissions to be compared directlyto population size. Australia has high per capitaemissions and produces much more CO2 thanFrance and Indonesia, which have higherpopulations.

GREENHOUSE PRODUCERS

Asia 33.9%

North America 25.5%

Europe 17.2%

Eurasia 9.4%

Asia

OceaniaAfrica

North

America

Central andSouth America

Eurasia

Middle East

Europe

Middle East 4.9%

Central and

South America 3.8%

Africa 3.7%

Oceania 1.6%

CO2 emissions from fossil fuels, 2004 (million metric tonnes of CO2)

Source: Data derived from International Energy Agency

Australia’s CO2 production is so high becauseabout half our fuel consumption relies on burningbrown coal, a major CO2 producer. Other majorsources are land clearing, mining and agriculture(mainly methane produced by cattle and sheep).

CO2 emissions per capita for selected countries, 2003

1994Year

1996 1998 2000

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

2002 2004

CO

2 e

mis

sio

ns

(to

nn

es/

bn

) US

China

RussiaJapan

India

Australia

CO2 emissions for selected countries, 1994–2004Source: Data derived from International Energy Agency

Millio

ns o

f to

nn

es

Austra

lia

UK

Fran

ceGer

man

y

Japa

nRussia

Indones

ia

USA

India

China

25

20

15

10

5

0

GEOGRAPHY 2

138

6.3

According to the IPCC 2007 report, global surfacetemperatures are likely to increase by between1.1 ºC and 6.4 ºC over the next 100 years,depending on the rate of greenhouse gasemissions. This will have a huge impact on theEarth’s coldest regions, where the effects ofclimate change are already being felt.

Glaciers in both the northern and southernhemispheres have been shrinking for over acentury — some in low-lying areas have almostdisappeared. Glaciers are melting and they willcontinue to shrink as the Earth’s temperaturecontinues to rise.

• Kenya: 92 per cent of the Lewis Glacier —Mt Kenya’s largest — has melted in the past100 years.

• Tien Shen Mountains, China: glacial icedecreased by 25 per cent in the past 40 years.

MELTING GLACIERS

• Kyrgyzstan: during 1959–88, 1081 glaciers inthe Pamir–Altai disappeared.

• Garhwal Himalayas, India: glacial retreat isoccurring at a record pace. Scientists predictall central and eastern Himalayan glaciers willbe gone by 2035.

• India: glaciers in the Himalayas are retreatingat an average rate of 15 metres per year, con-sistent with the rapid warming recorded atHimalayan climate stations since the 1970s.

• Mt Everest: the Khumbu Glacier has retreatedover 5 kilometres since 1953. It is a popularclimbing route to the mountain’s summit.

• Bhutan: as Himalayan glaciers melt, glaciallakes are filling and are in danger offlooding. Average glacial retreat in Bhutan is30–40 metres per year.

• Austria: the discovery of a frozen Stone Agemummy in a melting glacier, in the OetztalAlps, shows that glacial ice has now decreasedmore than at any time during the past 5000years.

GLOBAL WARMING

IN COLD ENVIRONMENTS

Upsala Glacier, Argentina, 1928

Upsala Glacier, Argentina, 2004


139

• Spain: half of the glaciers that existed in 1980are gone.

• Glacier National Park, Montana, USA: ifglacial retreat continues at its current rate, allglaciers in the park will disappear by 2070.

• Canadian Rockies: the Athabasca Glacier hasretreated 0.5 kilometres in the last 60 years.In British Columbia, the Wedgemont Glacierhas retreated hundreds of metres since 1979,as the climate has warmed at twice the globalaverage.

• Alaska, USA: between the mid-1950s andmid-1990s, 67 glaciers have thinned by anaverage of 0.5 metres per year. This increasedto nearly 1.8 metres per year from the mid-1990s to 2000–2001.

• Venezuela: only two of six glaciers in the Vene-zuelan Andes remain from 1972. Scientistspredict these will be gone in the next 10 years.

The amount of melt water available for human

consumption, agriculture and hydroelectricity

will continue to decline as glaciers retreat and

snow cover decreases. Many settlements in

mountain regions rely on water stored in gla-

ciers and in snow cover for all or part of their

water supply. Glaciers also feed river systems

with melt water so the amount of water avail-

able in these rivers for settlements downstream

will also decline.

GEO• Andes Mountains, Peru: the edge of the Qori

Kalis glacier retreated by 4.0 metres each yearbetween 1963 and 1978. By 2002, the rateincreased to 30.1 metres per year.

• Argentina: glaciers in Patagonia have recededby an average of almost 1.5 kilometres over thelast 13 years.

• Heard Island, Australia: air temperature rose0.7 ºC between 1947 and 2001. Since 1947, theisland’s 34 glaciers have decreased by 11 percent in area and 12 per cent in volume.

Scientists are observing dramatic changes in theEarth’s polar regions. During the past 100 years,average Arctic temperatures increased at almosttwice the average global rate. During the last30 years, satellite data have shown that theaverage annual extent of Arctic sea ice has shrunkby 2.7 per cent per decade. Compared with 20 to40 years ago, ice thickness has decreased by anaverage of 1.2 metres — about a 40 per centdecrease in the volume of ice. The Arctic icecap haslost an area the size of Tasmania since 1970.

Temperature measurements using ice coresand tree rings show that the twentieth centurywas the warmest century in the Arctic since1600. The permafrost in the region is thawingand causing the ground to subside in manyareas. Due to this thawing, buildings in Russiaand Canada have collapsed. Oil pipelines, roadsand airports have also been affected.

THE ARCTIC

‘Drunken’ forests in Alaska. The trees are leaning and falling over because the permafrost is melting.

GEOGRAPHY 2

140

In Siberia, large areas of tundra permafrostare melting. In some regions, thawing of theupper ground is occurring at a rate of nearly20 centimetres per year.

Some possible benefits of the thawing includemore productive fisheries, easier access to ship-ping routes across the Arctic, and easier miningof gas and oil deposits in the region.

Surface temperatures have remained fairly stableover most of Antarctica during the last 50 years,and there has been little change in the overallextent of Antarctic sea ice. However, the AntarcticPeninsula has experienced a warming of about

ANTARCTICA

2.5 ºC. Many glaciers have retreated in this regionand several ice shelves have broken up in recentyears.

In early January 2005, a giant 11 655 square-kilometre iceberg named B-15A broke off from theRoss Ice Shelf near Cape Adare in Antarctica.Later, in October, the iceberg broke into a numberof giant pieces after it was affected by wavesgenerated six days earlier by a storm located13 500 kilometres away in the Gulf of Alaska.Scientists are worried an increase in severestorms due to climate change will increase theseevents and lead to a more rapid rise in sea levels.

This event follows a previous one in Antarcticabetween 1995 and 2002, when the Larsen A andB ice shelves collapsed and disintegrated.

Melbourne

YarraRiver

Port

Phillip Bay

Iceberg to scale

B a s s S t r a i t

N

0 25 50 km

This satellite image shows the B-15A iceberg in January 2005 before it broke away from the Ross Ice Shelf.

Iceberg B-15A to scale


141

Understand

1. Why might cold regions show more obvious signs of warming compared to warmer regions?

2. Describe the change in average Arctic temperatures during the last 100 years.

Think

3. Describe the changes shown in the glacier photographs. Work with another person and brainstorm possible consequences of continued glacial melting. Present your ideas in a futures wheel like the one below right.

4. Describe the impact of thawing and melting in the Arctic. Identify any advantages and disadvantages that could result.

5. Describe the impact of climate change in cold environments in terms of spatial change over time.

Use ICT

6. Visit the website for this book and click on the Disappearing Glaciers weblink for this chapter (see ’Weblinks’, page vii) to see more photographic evidence of disappearing glaciers.

7. Use the internet to investigate how global warming is affecting polar bears. Present a summary of your findings

Design and create

8. Use the information on these pages and an atlas to map the observed changes over time to glaciers and other ice areas. To download a blank map of the world, visit the website for this book and click on the Blank World Map weblink for

this chapter (see ’Weblinks’, page vii). You will also need coloured pencils. Design symbols, annotate (make notes) and follow correct map conventions (BOLTSS). Describe the pattern shown on your map.

9. Imagine it is 2050 and that you are a journalist preparing a documentary about continued global warming and glacial melting. Design your half-hour documentary using a number of locations around the world. Draw up a plan detailing the places visited, the footage filmed (and why you have chosen it), and the commentary to accompany the footage. You might like to break this down into five-minute segments. You could develop this as a multi-media presentation or display your plan on the classroom wall.

Less fishto eat

More moneyfor travel

Less moneyfor heating

Shorterwinter

Sea levelsrise

Populationmigration

LongergrowingseasonLoss of

homes

Cross-culturalunderstanding

Globalwarming

Antarcticamelts

Crowdedcities

Speciesloss

The B-15A iceberg breaks into pieces.

ICT

MADE EA

SY

www.jaconline.com.au/ict-meInternet search

GEOGRAPHY 2

142

6.4

Over the past 35 to 45 years, the world’s oceanshave warmed by an average of 0.06 ºC betweenthe surface and a depth of around 3000 metres.Most warming occurred in the top 300 metres,where the average warming was 0.31ºC.

The result was a rise in global sea levels ofbetween 10 and 20 centimetres over the last100 years. This was caused by more waterentering the sea from melting glaciers and seaice, and by thermal expansion (water expandsas it heats, increasing in volume and taking upmore space).

There is already evidence that sea levels are rising.Monitoring across the Pacific shows a dramatic risein sea level from Papua New Guinea, south-east toFiji. Data from 16 sites show that Fiji’s averageshoreline has retreated by about 15 centimetresper year over the past 90 years. In Western Samoa,the coastline has receded by about 46 centimetresper year over the past 90 years.

Many low-lying atoll countries — Kiribati,Maldives, Marshall Islands, Tokelau, Tuvalu,Solomon Islands and Vanuatu — are underthreat from rising sea levels. Two tiny unin-habited islets in Kiribati, Tebua Tarawa andAbanuea, disappeared beneath the waves in1999 due to rising sea levels.

Low-lying islands in the Pacific are under threat of disappearing due to rising sea levels.

DISAPPEARING ISLANDS

FIJIVANUATU

SOLOMON

ISLANDSTUVALU

K I R I B A T I

MARSHALL

ISLANDS

NAURU

PAPUA

NEW GUINEA

AUSTRALIA

FEDERATED STATES

OF MICRONESIA

NIUE

TONGA

SAMOA

New Caledonia

Equator

Tropic of Capricorn

CORAL

SEA

PACIFIC OCEAN

0 500 1000 km

Islands under threat

of disappearing

N

The Maldives

The 2004 Boxing Day tsunami exposed howvulnerable the Maldives is, when waves sweptacross many low-lying islands, causing widespreaddestruction of fruit plantations. The relatively lownumber of deaths was due to the fact that most ofthe population live in Male, which is protected bya huge sea wall. It is understandable that theMaldives was one of the first countries to sign theKyoto Protocol, which seeks international agree-ment to cut back carbon dioxide emissions.

The Maldives consists of 1196 tiny islands, most of which are only around 2 metres above sea level. The Maldives is home to around 300 000 people.

Tegua, Vanuatu

Sixty-four people once lived on Tegua Island, innorthern Vanuatu. The sea has been advancingon this small island for many years; killingcoastal coconut trees and contaminating thedrinking water in wells with salt water. As aresult, Tegua was the first settlement to berelocated to higher ground due to rising sealevels. Funding from the Canadian Government,Pacific Regional Environment Program andUnited Nations built a new village 0.5 kilometresinland and provided water tanks to storedrinking water for the six-month dry season.

WARM OCEANS

AND RISING SEA LEVELS


143

Small island states pro-duce very small amounts ofgreenhouse gases, yet theyare the ones experiencing thefirst impacts of rising sealevels. Many of these states arevery poor and will need financialassistance.

In some locations, a 1 mm rise in sea levelcan cause a 1.5 metre loss of coastline.Under severe threat are low-lying coastalareas, such as Southern Florida in the UnitedStates; Asian countries, such as Bangladesh;and low-lying nations, such as the Netherlands.

Scientists using computer models think sealevels could rise by half a metre over the nextcentury. The rise in sea levels occurring now wascaused by warming that happened decades ago.The global warming that will continue to occurwill most likely cause sea levels to rise evenhigher. Many climate refugees could be createdby rising sea levels.

Sea levels are likely to continue to rise long after CO2 emissions and global temperatures stabilise.

Think1. Describe the main causes of rising sea levels.2. Why are many islands in the Pacific under threat

from rising sea levels?

LOW-LYING REGIONS

FUTURE PROJECTIONS

Today 1000 years

Time taken to

reach equilibrium

CO2 emissions peak

0 to 100 years

Magn

itu

de o

f re

spo

nse Sea-level rise due

to ice melting:several millennia

Sea-level rise due tothermal expansion:centuries to millennia

Temperature stabilisation:a few centuries

CO2 stabilisation:

100 to 300 years

CO2 emissions

100 years

3. Outline what you think is meant by the term climate refugee.

4. According to climate scientists, what is the most probable future rise in sea level?

5. Study the graph and answer the following:(a) When are CO2 emissions expected to peak?

How long after this time is CO2 expected to stabilise?

(b) When is global temperature expected to stabilise?

(c) Describe what is expected to happen to the rise in sea levels, over time, as a result of ice melting and thermal expansion.

6. Study atlas maps showing population density and environments. Record the population densities of the locations threatened by rises in sea levels. Write a summary paragraph describing the consequences of rising sea levels for people and environments.

Teamwork7. Work with three other students. Imagine you are

on a committee that is developing a policy to help people from low-lying countries deal with rising sea levels. Develop three strategies that will assist them. Should special attention be given to low-polluting countries? Give an example.

Use ICT8. Visit the website for this book and click on the

Sea Level Changes weblink for this chapter (see ‘Weblinks’, page vii). Select some images and animations about the predicted impact of different changes in sea level. Choose one region to study in detail, and produce a series of maps and descriptions to show what might happen.

Tegua Island, a low-lying island in Vanuatu on which settlements have been relocated due to rising sea levels.

GEOGRAPHY 2

144

6.5

As the atmosphere and oceans warm, morethermal energy becomes available to affect theweather. Data collected over a number of yearsshow an increase in the number of extremeweather events around the globe. For example,the hottest European summer on record occurredin 2003, and the first and only hurricane everrecorded in the South Atlantic — HurricaneCatarina — occurred in Brazil in March 2004.

The economic losses from these events areincreasing. People in developing countries arelikely to be affected much more than those indeveloped countries.

Warm air holds more water vapour. Therefore,there is potential for more, and heavier, rainfallto occur in some locations. Heavy rainfall eventshave increased over time and climate modelsshow that future precipitation will often occur inlarger downpours and heavy snowstorms.

INCREASED RAINFALL

HOW WILL CLIMATE CHANGE

AFFECT THE WEATHER?

In the 1960s, seven million people wereaffected by flooding annually; in 2005, 150 millionwere affected. As more of these events occur,there will be a rise in flood and storm damage,and corresponding loss of life and property. Soilerosion, and river and ocean pollution, will alsoincrease.

Global economic losses as a result of extreme weather

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

An

nu

al lo

sses

(billio

n U

S$)

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 199813 16 29 44 72

13

Total economic losses

Insured losses

Number of events

Decadal average

Distribution of selected extreme flooding events

2000 South-eastern Norway The wettest year since records began in 1895

2002 North KoreaHuge floods occurred when 40 per cent of North Korea’s annual rainfall fell in one week.

2002 ChinaOne hundred million people were affected by floods.

1998 New South Wales, Australia Wettest August on record, with 30.5 cm of rain, 20.3 cm more than normal totals during the entire month

1999 Mount Baker, WashingtonWorld record for the most snowfall in a single winter season, when 2895 cm of snow fell between November 1998 and the end of June 1999.

1998 Black Hills, South Dakota Record snowfall of 260 cm in five days, almost twice as much snow as the previous single-storm record for the state

1998 Texas Record downpours and severe flooding in south-east Texas caused $1 billion in damage and 31 deaths.

1999 VenezuelaThe heaviest rainfall in 100 years (1.2 m in December) caused massive landslides and flooding that killed approx. 30 000 people. Population growth in vulnerable areas and forest clearing contributed to the high death toll.

2000 Buenos Aires, Argentina Heaviest rains in 100 years, with more than four times the average monthly rainfall falling in five days

2001 Pampas region, Argentina/UruguayNearly 3.2 million hectares of land in the Pampas region were flooded after three months of high rainfall. Mean annual precipitation in this region has increased by 35 per cent in the last half of the twentieth century.

2007 EnglandThe worst floods for 60 years during July caused 7 billion dollars in damage — the previous July had brought one of the driest and hottest summers on record.

2007 Bangladesh, northern India and NepalThe worst floods in decades from June to August. Twenty-five million people were displaced, and thousands died, many from diseases such as malaria and encephalitis.


145

Flash floods and mudslides cut a swathe through Caraballeda, Venezuela, in December 1999.

Some regions will experience increased heat anddrought rather than more rain. The percentageof the Earth affected by serious drought morethan doubled between the 1970s to the early2000s. More frequent, severe heatwaves areoccurring, causing illnesses and deaths in somecases.

Droughts cause losses in crops, livestock, fish-eries and wildlife, and decrease river flows andwater quality. Some locations that have experi-enced extreme drought and fire events include:

• Europe — the hottest summer on record in2003, when 23 000 people died in June andJuly as temperatures were greater than 40 ºC

• Kenya — the worst drought on record in 2001

• Spain, Portugal and France — forest fires dueto drought in 2005

• South Africa — one of the driest Decembers onrecord, fuelling extensive fires in Western CapeProvince in January 2000

• Southern India — a heatwave in May 2002resulted in the highest one-week death toll onrecord.

• Tajikistan — the lowest rainfall in 75 yearsoccurred in 2001.

• Mexico — the worst fire season ever in 1998during a severe drought

• Mediterranean, including Greece and Italy —intense drought and fires in 1998

• Texas — a heatwave in the summer of 1998claimed more than 100 lives.

• Florida, Texas and Louisiana, USA — the driestperiod in 104 years from April to June in 1998;the worst wildfires in Florida in 50 years.

HEATWAVES AND DROUGHTS

A wildfire burns close to homes in north-western Spain during a severe drought in 2005.

There are signs that hurricanes are becomingmore frequent and more intense in some regions.During 1996, 1997 and 1999, there were morethan twice the average annual number of hurri-canes in the USA than there had been in the past100 years. The most devastating hurricanes in200 years occurred — Mitch, in 1998, in the Car-ibbean killed 10000 people and made threemillion homeless; in the USA, in 2005, HurricaneKatrina killed more than 1400 people and the cityof New Orleans had to be evacuated.

Think1. Use the map to describe the distribution of

selected extreme flooding events.2. Study the graph.

(a) Describe the trend in economic and insured losses between 1950 and 1998.

(b) What happened to the proportion of extreme weather events over each successive decade?

(c) Predict the trend of this graph if global warming and extreme weather events continue to increase.

Design and create3. Imagine you are a reporter at the Venezuela

floods or the Spanish wildfires. Write an article describing the possible weather that led to the extreme event.

4. Research how increased air and water temperatures can affect rainfall and events such as hurricanes. Present this as a magazine article and include illustrations.

HURRICANES AND CYCLONES

ON

THE CD-R

OM

wiZdom

GEOGRAPHY 2

146

6.6

In 2006, the Bureau of Meteorology announcedthat 2005 was the warmest year on record inAustralia. The annual mean temperature was1.09 ºC above average. This is the equivalent ofmany southern Australian towns shifting north-ward by about 100 kilometres. An increase of 4 ºCwould mean that temperatures in Melbourne

could be similar to those now experienced inMoree, in northern New South Wales.

There were regional differences in the amountof warming and the impact on rainfall. Thegeneral trend in 2005 showed increases in averagetemperatures in all states, and decreases in rain-fall, except in Tasmania.

WHAT WILL BE THE IMPACT OF

CLIMATE CHANGE ON AUSTRALIA?

Potential climate impacts in Australia for various temperature increases

Global Temp. rise Tourism Water and primary industries Infrastructure and insurance

<1 °C • Regular bleaching of 60% of the Great Barrier Reef

• Snow-covered alpine areas shrink by 10 to 40%

• Area of montane tropical rainforest in northern Australia decreases by 50%

• Vertebrates in the World Heritage Wet Tropics lose half their habitat

• Melbourne’s water supply falls 3 to 11%• Droughts in NSW 70% more frequent

and more widespread • Native pasture growth falls by 8% (based

on 11% decrease in precipitation)• Cows in NSW Hunter Valley produce

250 to 310 litres less milk a year• 14% of Victoria’s marine invertebrates

lose their habitat

• 10 to 20% increase in extreme rainfall in NSW

• 25% more days above 35 °C in NT• 18% more days above 35 °C in SA• Peak electricity demand in Adelaide and

Brisbane increases by 2 to 5%• Peak electricity demand in Melbourne and

Sydney decreases by up to 1%• Demand for natural gas heating in

Melbourne decreases

1–2 °C • Bleaching of 60 to 80% of the Great Barrier Reef each year

• Vertebrates in the World Heritage Wet Tropics lose 90% of core habitat

• Loss of 80% of Kakadu freshwater wetlands due to 30 cm sea level rise

• Flows in the Murray–Darling fall 12 to 25%

• Melbourne’s water supply falls 7 to 35%• 91% chance of wheat exports falling

below current level• $12.4 million/year to manage southward

spread of Queensland fruit fly• $5.7 million/year benefit due to

reduction in apple moth

• Twice as many people exposed to flooding• Malaria zones spread southward • Population at risk of dengue fever increases

from 0.17 million to 0.75–1.6 million• Rise in refugees from Pacific Islands• Peak electricity demand in Adelaide and

Brisbane increases by 4 to 10%• Peak electricity demand in Melbourne and

Sydney decreases by 1%

2–3 °C • Bleaching of 97% of the Great Barrier Reef each year

• Victoria’s montane tropical vertebrate species lose 30 to 70% of core habitat

• Flows in the Macquarie River basin (NSW) fall 5 to 35%

• Pasture growth slows by 31%• Livestock-carrying capacity falls by 40%

• 10% increase in forest fire danger • 15% increase in 100-year storm tides along

eastern Victorian coast• 20 to 30% increase in tropical cyclone

rainfall and 5 to 10% increase in wind speed• 17% increase in road maintenance costs

across most of Australia

3–4 °C • Distribution of Great Barrier Reef species shrinks by 95%

• Area of snow-covered alpine area shrinks by 20 to 85%

• Area of ‘60-day’ snow cover shrinks by 40 to 95%

• Flows in the Murray–Darling fall 16 to 48%

• Australian primary production falls 6%• Eucalyptus lose 55% of their core habitat• Timber yields in SA rise by 25 to 50%, but

fall by similar margin in North Queensland and the Top End

• Oceania experiences a net loss of GDP• Dengue fever transmission zone reaches

Brisbane and possibly Sydney• Temperature-related deaths of people over

65 rise by 200%• Peak electricity demand increases in

Adelaide, Brisbane and Melbourne by 5 to 20%

>4 °C • Most Australian vertebrates lose 90 to 100% of their core habitat

• 32% chance of decreased wheat production

• 45% chance of wheat crop value being below current level

• 25% increase in extreme rainfall in Victoria• 30% increase in 100-year storm tides along

eastern Victorian coast• 150% increase in annual days above 35 °C in

SA• Peak electricity demand increases in

Adelaide, Brisbane and Melbourne by 9 to 25%


147

Annual mean temperatures for Australia in 2005 compared to normal trends

2005 rainfall compared with historical rainfall records

Potential dengue transmission zones

5000 1000 km

–0.5 °C to 0.0 °C

0.0 °C to 0.5 °C

0.5 °C to 1.0 °C

1.0 °C to 1.5 °C

1.5 °C to 2.0 °C

2.0 °C to 2.5 °C

–1.0 °C to –0.5 °C

Mean temperature anomaly (°C)

1 January 2005 to 31 December 2005

N

5000 1000 km

Very muchabove average

Above average

Very muchbelow average

Average

Below average

Lowest onrecord

Australian rainfall deciles1 January 2005 to 31 December 2005Distribution based on gridded data

N

0 400 800 km

Broome

Port Hedland

Katherine

Darwin

Townsville

Rockhampton

Cairns

Mackay

Brisbane

Coffs Harbour

Port MacquarieNewcastle

Sydney

Current dengue transmission zone

Projected dengue transmission zone if governments andbusinesses act now to reduce greenhouse gas emissions

Projected dengue transmission zone if governments andbusinesses do not act

N

There will be a variety of climatechange impacts in Australia, dependingon a range of possible global tempera-ture changes. Climate change willimpact on natural environments, ourwater supply, health, agriculture andindustry.

Think1. Study the table opposite.

(a) Outline four possible impacts on Australia’s tourism industry as a result of climate change.

(b) List three possible benefits of climate change to Australia.

2. Study the temperature and rainfall maps.(a) Describe the general pattern of

temperature and rainfall experienced in Australia in 2005.

(b) What type of temperature and rainfall was experienced where you live? How was this different from the normal and historical figures?

(c) Use an atlas to name two locations experiencing conditions that were:• warmer and drier• warmer and wetter• cooler and wetter.

(d) Did any locations experience cooler and drier conditions?

3. Describe the potential spread of dengue fever according to two possible futures.

Teamwork4. Divide the class into five groups. Each

group will look at the impact of one of the five possible temperature changes on Australia. Use the table and your own ideas to record possible economic, environmental, social and political impacts of this change.

Use ICT5. Visit the website for this book and click

on the Rising Sea Levels weblink for this chapter (see ‘Weblinks’, page vii). Scroll down to ‘Earth’ and zoom in on Australia to see how predicted rises in sea levels will affect locations along the coast. Describe the impact on three coastal locations.

Worksheets

6.3 The Great Barrier Reef and climate change

GEOGRAPHY 2

148

6.7

CASE STUDY: GLOBAL WARMING

AND AUSTRALIA’S ALPINE REGION

Location of alpine snow areas and selected resorts

Predicted changes in temperature and precipitation for 2020 and 2050

Scenario (Year)

Projected change in temperature

(˚C)

Projected change in precipitation

(%)

Low impact (2020)

+0.2 +0.9

High impact (2020)

+1.0 –8.3

Low impact (2050)

+0.6 +2.3

High impact (2050)

+2.9 –24.0

ImpactsAustralia’s alpine region forms only about 0.15 per cent of the continent, but is at the forefront of climate change impacts. The CSIRO uses data collected over 35–50 years and applies it to models to predict the impact of further warming on future snow cover. Two scenarios are used: low impact (which the CSIRO expects temperatures will go above); and high impact (which the CSIRO expects temperatures will not go above).

Some possible outcomes as the climate warms include: more precipitation falling as rain rather than snow; an increase in the rate of snow melt and evaporation; a rise in snowlines; a reduction in the number of suitable hours available for snow-making; and shorter ski seasons. The average snowline at present is 1412 metres — this is predicted to rise to between 1440 and 1600 metres by 2020.

Alpine resortsEach year, around 1.1 million people visit New South Wales resorts and 900 000 people visit Victorian resorts. In Victoria, they also support about 3740 jobs and contribute around $130 million per year to the economy.

Snow makingArtificial snow-making is already used in ski resort areas to extend the ski season. The larger resorts can probably withstand warming for about two decades if they double their snow-making. This costs millions of dollars and uses huge amounts of water and electricity, contributing further greenhouse gases to the environment. It also requires particular conditions below –2 ºC, so the opportunity to make snow may be reduced as snow seasons become shorter.

Snow-makingPredicted changes to snow depth, Mount Hotham

Date

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

Sn

ow

dep

th (

cm

)

1 Jun

15 Ju

n

29 Ju

n

13 Ju

l

27 Ju

l

10 A

ug

24 A

ug

7 Se

p

21 Sep

5 O

ct

19 O

ct

2 Nov

Present2020 low impact2020 high impact2050 low impact2050 high impact

Mount Hotham Resort

Predicted changes to snowline, Mount Hotham

Present 2020 low impact2020 high impact

Date

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0

Sn

ow

lin

e (

m)

2050 low impact2050 high impact

1 Jun

16 Ju

n1 Jul

16 Ju

l

31 Ju

l

15 A

ug

30 A

ug

14 Sep

29 Sep

14 O

ct

29 O

ct

Mt Hotham 1862 m

Mt Buller 1804 m

Mt Baw Baw 1563 m

Mt Wellington

Lake Mountain 1483 m

Mt Buffalo 1723 m

Melbourne

Canberra

Mt Kosciuszko 2228 mPerisher Valley

Thredbo

N E W S O U T H W A L E S

V I C T O R I A

0 40 80 km

Barn Bluff1559 m

Mt PelionWest1560 m

Mt Ossa1617 m

Legges Tor1573 m

TASMANIA

0 100 km

Land above 1400 metres in elevation. This area isusually snow covered for at least one month a year.

N

Maintain ski

industry

Adaptation

strategies

Alternatives

to skiing

All-year tourism

Hikes, tennis

Non-snow

related

activities

Fatalism

Give up skiing

Business

as usual

Artificial

snow-making Cooperation

Develop

higher terrainSki slope

design


149

Understand1. Describe the location of Australia’s alpine region.2. Outline some of the climate change impacts

expected in alpine areas.3. Which climate scenario is projected to have the

greatest impact on Australia’s alpine region? Why?4. Describe the impact of climate change on plant

and animal species in alpine areas.

Think5. Use the graphs to describe the present snow

lines for Mount Koskiuszko and Mount Hotham. Describe how these are predicted to change for each projected temperature change.

6. Study the graphs and write a description summarising possible changes to snow depth at Mount Koskiuszko and Mount Hotham in 2020 and 2050. Which mountain will experience the most and least impact on snow depth? Why?

Teamwork7. Work with another person and brainstorm all the

possible impacts climate change will have on the ski and snow resort industry. Suggest ways to overcome or reduce the effect of each impact.

8. Study the diagram outlining possible responses by the ski and alpine resort industry to climate change. Write a short description for each, outlining the advantages and disadvantages.

Possible responses by the ski and alpine resort industry to climate change

Thredbo Resort, NSW

Predicted changes to snowline, Mount Kosciuszko

Present2020 low impact2020 high impact

Date

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0

Sn

ow

lin

e (

m)

1 Jun

16 Ju

n

16 Ju

l1 Jul

31 Ju

l

15 A

ug

30 A

ug

14 Sep

29 Sep

14 O

ct

29 O

ct

2050 low impact2050 high impact

Predicted changes to snow depth, Mount Kosciuszko

Date

250

200

150

100

50

0

Sn

ow

dep

th (

cm

)

18 M

ay1 Jun

15 Ju

n

29 Ju

n13

Jul

27 Ju

l

10 Aug

24 Aug

7 Se

p

21 Se

p

5 Oct

19 O

ct

2 Nov

16 N

ov

30 N

ov

Present2020 low impact2020 high impact2050 low impact2050 high impact

Note: 2050 high impact cannot be projected past September.

Mountain pygmy-possum

Orichora brown butterfly feeding on an alpine daisy

Alpine ecosystemsWarming by even small degrees will change the distribution of animals and plants and could see alpine ecosystems disappear. Some species of alpine plants, such as the alpine daisy, are already vulnerable and rare in some areas. If they disappear, there will be effects on insects, birds and other animals. The mountain pygmy-possum is already under pressure as its habitat competes with ski resort development. Warming will mean that it will have to compete with other animals that could move into its habitat for food. Feral animals and weeds will also move up the mountains.

GEOGRAPHY 2

150

6.8

Climate change is a global phenomenon. Thepollution produced in one country spreadsthrough the atmosphere and affects other coun-tries. Action by only a few countries to reducegreenhouse gases will, therefore, have littleimpact — it requires international cooperation,especially by the largest polluters.

The main source of human-induced emissionsis the burning of fossil fuels for energy. Globally,burning fossil fuels accounts for about 60 percent of greenhouse gas emissions (in the UnitedStates, the figure is 85 per cent). As economicgrowth continues, emissions are expected to rise,especially in China and India, and developingcountries experiencing huge economic growth.

Projected world carbon dioxide emissions by country, 1990–2030Source: Energy Information Administration, 2005

Governments around the world need to act tostop or dramatically slow down greenhouse gasemissions. Types of action include reducingemissions, increasing energy from clean sources,reducing deforestation and changing agriculturalpractices.

In 2007, China’s carbon dioxide emissions

exceeded those of the USA.

INTERNATIONAL ACTION

1990

2000

4000

6000

Millio

n m

etric

to

nn

es C

O2

Year

8000

10000

12000

2002 2003 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

United States

Canada

Mexico

Japan

South KoreaAustralia/New ZealandRussia

China

India

Middle East

Africa

Brazil

OECD Europe

GEO

In 1992, 170 countries came together at a UnitedNations conference and agreed to take steps toreduce emissions of greenhouse gases. But, notmany countries passed laws to see this through.

In 1997, countries gathered again to develop apolicy for stronger action. The result was theKyoto Protocol, an agreement that sets targets tolimit the greenhouse gas emissions of industrial-ised countries. Developing countries, includingChina, can sign the Protocol but have no limitsimposed on them in the first round of theagreement (from 2008 to 2012). In total, 128countries agreed to the Kyoto ideal, includingAustralia and the USA.

The Kyoto Protocol came into effect in February2005 when it was ratified by most industrialisedcountries. Australia and the USA, however, didnot ratify the Protocol.

The targets define the amount of greenhousegases that countries are allowed to emit between2008 and 2012. This target uses 1990 emissionsas a baseline.

To meet these targets, countries must makechanges that reduce their level of emissions. Theycan also meet the targets in two other ways:

• they can carry out projects in other countriesthat reduce greenhouse gas emissions andoffset these reductions against their owntarget

• companies can buy and sell the right to emitcarbon gases. For example, a major polluter,such as a coal power station, is allowed to emita certain amount of greenhouse gases. If it isenergy efficient, and emits less than its limit,it gains carbon credits. It has the right tosell these credits to another company that ishaving difficulty reducing its emissions.

Companies can also gain credits by investingin projects that reduce greenhouse gases (such asrenewable energy), or improve energy efficiency,or that act as carbon sinks (such as tree plantingand underground storage of CO2).

THE KYOTO PROTOCOL

HOW DOES IT WORK?

WHAT ACTIONS

CAN STABILISE CLIMATE?


151

Australia did not ratify the Kyoto Protocol becausethe Federal Government did not believe it was inthe country’s best interest. The Australian

AUSTRALIA’S POSITION

economy is heavily based on resources and veryreliant on the use of coal. The government believedthat jobs and the economy would be at risk if itratified the agreement. It also believed Australiawould be at a disadvantage if developing countriessuch as China were not given greenhouse gaslimits, and their economies were allowed to growquickly as a result.

A political cartoon drawn in February 2005, when the Australian government decided not to ratify the Kyoto Protocol

The Kyoto Protocol itself will not stop climatechange. Most scientists and governments believethere is a need for much deeper cuts in greenhousegas emissions — up to 60 per cent by 2050 — toavoid dangerous climate change. The Protocol isseen as a first and important step in gettinggovernments, businesses and individuals tochange their behaviour and reduce emissions.

Households produce about one-fifth of Australia’sgreenhouse gases through their use of transport,household energy and the decay of householdwaste in landfill. This amounts to about 15 tonnesof CO2 per household per year. (A tonne of CO2

would fill one family home.) A few changes to per-sonal lifestyle can make a significant difference inthe amount of greenhouse gases a family produces,and at little cost. Other changes, such as buildingsustainable and energy-efficient homes may costmore initially, but save energy and money in themedium to long term.

Some day, son, all this will be your problem

CAN THE KYOTO PROTOCOL

STOP CLIMATE CHANGE?

TAKING PERSONAL ACTION

* 100 is an emissions level the same as in 1990.

Kyoto Protocol greenhouse gas targets

Greenhouse gas reduction targets

Country Target

Australia 108

Bulgaria 92

Canada 92

Croatia 95

Czech Republic 92

European Union 92

Estonia 92

Hungary 94

Iceland 110

Japan 94

Latvia 92

Liechtenstein 92

Lithuania 92

Monaco 92

New Zealand 100

Norway 101

Poland 92

Romania 92

Russian Federation 100

Slovakia 92

Slovenia 92

Switzerland 92

Ukraine 100

United States of America 93

European Union commitments

Country Commitments

Austria –13%

Belgium –7.5%

Denmark –21%

Finland 0%

France 0%

Germany –21%

Greece +25%

Ireland +13%

Italy –6.5%

Luxembourg –28%

Netherlands –6%

Portugal +27%

Spain +15%

Sweden +4%

United Kingdom –12.5%

Tower of power

Greenhouses radiate seven kilometres outwards from the one-kilometre-tall tower of this prototype power generator. They will heat and trap air that then rises through the tower to the cooler air above. The rushing air will turn turbines in the giant tower, creating electricity.

GEOGRAPHY 2

152

Wind power

Modern windmills, hollow towers with turbines at the top, can be used to generate energy from the wind. A generator converts the spinning motion into electricity. Wind turbines need to be located in areas where the wind blows at a constant speed. Reliably strong winds that would enable electricity to be generated in this way exist in many parts of the world. Opponents claim wind farms would be noisy and visually polluting.

Average greenhouse gas emissions per household Source: Energy Information Administration, 2005

The Australian Conservation Foundation hassuggested a 10-point plan (see below) that every

34% Transport

16% Water heating15% Electronic/other appliances

11% Home heatingand cooling

9% Fridge/freezer

5% Wastes (landfill)

5% Lights

3% Cooking 2% Clothes wash/dry and dishwashing

Australian household can follow to reduce itslevel of greenhouse gas pollution.

Global warming is happening, but the humanactivities that contribute to it by producinggreenhouse gases are not irreversible. People canmake a difference.

Alternative energyAlternatives to using fossil fuels to generatemore sustainable energy have been developedand used to various extents in different parts ofthe world. Four of these resources are wind, sun,water and geothermal energy. These, and others,are described further in the illustration.

SUSTAINABLE ENERGY

Wave power

This is a floating platform that converts wave energy to electricity. The platform contains three air chambers in which the water level rises and falls as waves pass through the platform. This forces the air to pass over a turbine, thereby creating electricity.

Solar panels in the desert

A series of 1900 curved mirrors, computer controlled to follow the sun, concentrate the rays of the sun onto the top of a 100-metre-high tower. Molten salt heated to 560º Celsius is stored in the tower. The salt slowly releases the heat that is then used to run a generator.

Tidal power station

These operate in a similar way to a hydro-electric power station. They convert the energy from both the incoming and outgoing tides to turn turbines and generate electricity. They are best located at the mouth of a bay that has a large difference in water level between high and low tides

Geothermal energy

The Earth has a hot molten core. At appropriate locations this heat can be harnessed: bore holes are drilled down to hot rock through which water can be pushed down. The steam created can be brought to the surface where it is used to power turbines and create electricity. Australia has some of the best sites in the world for this type of geothermal power generation.

Switch to green powerChoose renewable energy from your electricity

retailer and support investment in sustainable, more environmentally friendly energies. Make sure it is accredited GreenPower [electricity produced using renewable resources] — see www.greenpower.com.au for a list of who qualifies.

Get rid of one car in your household

A car produces seven tonnes of greenhouse pollution each year (based on travelling 15 000 kilometres per year). This does not include the energy and water used to build the car — 83 000 litres of water and eight tonnes of greenhouse pollution. So share a car with your family.

Take fewer air flightsA return domestic flight in Australia creates about

1.5 tonnes of greenhouse emissions (based on Melbourne to Sydney return). A return international flight creates about 9 tonnes (based on Melbourne to New York return). Holiday closer to home.

Use less power to heat your waterA conventional electric household water heater

produces about 3.2 tonnes of greenhouse pollution in a year. Using less hot water will reduce your pollution. Using the cold cycle on your washing machine will save 3 kg of greenhouse pollution. Switching off your water heater when you’re away will also reduce your energy use.

Eat less meatMeat, particularly beef, has a very high

environmental impact, using a lot of water and land to produce it, and creating significant greenhouse pollution. If you reduce your red meat intake by two 150-gram serves a week, you’ll save 20 000 litres of water and 600 kg of greenhouse pollution a year.

Heat and cool your home lessInsulate your walls and ceilings. This can cut

heating and cooling costs by 10 per cent. Each degree change can save 10 per cent of your energy use. A 10 per cent reduction is 310 kg of greenhouse pollution saved.

Replace your old showerhead with a water-efficient alternative

This will save about 44 000 litres of water a year and up to 1.5 tonnes of greenhouse pollution from hot water heating (on average).

Turn off standby powerTurning appliances off at the wall could reduce your

home’s greenhouse emissions by up to 700 kg a year.

Cycle, walk or take public transport rather than drive

your carCycling 10 kilometres to work (or school) and back twice a week instead of driving saves about 500 kg of greenhouse pollution each year and saves you about $770. Besides, it’s great for your health and fitness!

Make your fridge more efficientEnsure the coils of your fridge are clean and well

ventilated — that will save around 150 kg of greenhouse pollution a year. Make sure the door seals properly — this saves another 50 kg. Keep fridges and freezers in a cool, well-ventilated spot to save up to another 100 kg a year. If you have a second fridge, turn it off when not in use.

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10


153

Geosequestration

Geosequestration is the geological storage of carbon dioxidein deep rock formations. CO2 would be captured from a

power station and pumped into underground storageabout 2 kilometres beneath the Earth’s surface. This

option could substantially reduce greenhouse gasemissions. There are some concerns about this

process related to possible leaks of CO2 from theground. CO2 is heavy and can suffocate people andanimals. The cost of geosequestration is very highand may increase the price of electricity fromcoal-fired power stations.

Think

1. Outline why climate change is a global problem. Why is international cooperation required to overcome this problem?

2. Describe the development of the Kyoto Protocol. Why are industrialised, and not developing, countries given targets? Do you think this should be the case? Justify.

3. What is a carbon credit? Give two examples. How can carbon credits be traded?

4. Explain Australia’s reasons for not ratifying the Kyoto Protocol. Do you think Australia should have ratified this agreement?

5. Study the sustainable energy methods on these pages. In groups, brainstorm the advantages and disadvantages of each to meet energy needs and reduce greenhouse gases.

Design and create

6. Write an imaginative story describing the world’s climate in 2050 and what has happened to greenhouse gas emissions. Include examples of alternative energy sources.

Use ICT

7. Visit the website for this book and click on the Greenhouse Calculator weblink for this chapter (see ‘Weblinks’, page vii). Complete the greenhouse calculator. What action can your family take to reduce greenhouse gases?

Worksheets

6.4 Wind, hydro or nuclear — alternative energy sources

6.5 Home of the future

Biomass farming

This involves growing plants that can be used to produce electricity. Trees, of course, can be burned as fuel but other plants such as canola and sunflowers that produce burnable oils may prove to be more useful in the future.

How carbon dioxide could be stored by geosequestration

Hydro-electric power station

A dam blocks the flow of a river, creating a lake. Water rushes through giant pipes across turbines inside the dam. As the turbines spin, the energy of the falling water is converted into electricity. In the Snowy Mountains area of New South Wales, Australia’s largest engineering project involved constructing a system of dams, tunnels and power stations to produce hydro-electricity.

Landfill waste and

sewage treatments

These produce gases that can be used to generate electricity. In Queensland, plant fibre that is a waste product in sugar production is burned to produce steam, which is then used to produce electricity to power the sugar refineries.

Solar power

The sun, a limitless resource, can be used to generate electricity. Solar panels, pointed towards the sun, collect heat, which is converted into electricity via photovoltaic cells. The electricity is collected in batteries (storing excess energy during sunlight hours and feeding it back at night and on cloudy days). The size of the panels influences how much power is generated, and therefore how far it can be distributed. The electricity from larger generators can be fed into the national power grid.

CO2 source

CO2 injection

CO2 capture and separation plant

CO2 compression unit

GEOGRAPHY 2

154

6.9

DIFFERENT VIEWPOINTS

The issue of global warming has created manyspecial interest groups, each arguing their par-ticular case and own solution. The discussions and

decision-making process are examples of activecitizenship. Some possible views are presentedbelow.

Federal Minister for Energy and the Environment

My government accepts the science of global warming, but does not think the Kyoto Protocol is the way to go. Without participation from the US (which is responsible for 25 per cent of global emissions), and developing countries — especially China and India who have fast-growing economies — the Protocol will not work. Australia cannot afford to be placed in a position that

weakens its economic position — this will happen if we stop using coal and use more expensive energy sources.

When people need to solve a problem, they usually can. We need to place our efforts into solutions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions such as geosequestration and clean carbon technologies.

We are working with big polluters who are voluntarily reducing emissions and will create incentives for the renewable energy sector. We are also looking at other possibilities such as building nuclear power stations, which will not produce any greenhouse gases.

Federal Opposition Minister for Energy and the Environment

Global warming is both a challenge and an opportunity. Although the Kyoto Protocol has shortcomings, I think it should be ratified by Australia. It is an important step in making sure that rich countries — who created the problem of global warming — are brought to account and encouraged to make radical changes to prevent greenhouse pollution. We stand to lose money by not being part of the Protocol — the European Union already has an emissions and carbon trading scheme worth billions of dollars.

We need a national greenhouse policy that sets targets that will reduce emissions by at least 60 per cent by 2050. Big profits can be made from energy-saving innovation. We need to be part of the multi-billion dollar emerging carbon-friendly technologies and put money into research and development. Otherwise, our best scientists and brightest ideas may move overseas where money is

already being invested in alternative technologies.

In addressing this problem, winners and losers will be created. There will be a shift in which businesses will be successful — we no longer have blacksmiths, but alternative businesses and technologies were created to meet the needs that they once served. The same will be true here — the coal industry may not be able to dominate electricity generation, but there will be a shift to alternative energies. This has occurred in the past with many other industries — textiles, sugar etc. It is how we manage the shift that will be important.

Environmental groups’ representative

The Kyoto Protocol is designed to put a price on pollution, where companies buy and sell the right to emit carbon emissions. This will help companies to rethink almost everything they do — reducing wastage of electricity from lights and appliances; expanding renewable energies; and constructing energy-efficient buildings.

Unfortunately, governments and businesses do not always look at the big picture, but often have short-term goals.

If they introduce higher taxes or prices to combat global warming, governments may lose votes and,

potentially, elections. If businesses cut emissions or divert money to new technologies, they may not make as much profit and may lose shareholders. By selling coal to non-target emission countries, Australia still gets to earn money without needing to consider greenhouse gas emissions. We cannot wait for the issue to be solved for us. We can all make small changes to reduce global warming, with little effect on our lifestyles.

Australia could be playing a leadership role and creating opportunities by developing alternative strategies. It is time for all governments to admit the scale of the problem and develop policies to tackle it. We need long-term wisdom, not short-term political and economic gain. Consider what the cost will be if we do nothing.


155

Teamwork

1. Use the roles outlined to conduct the inaugural meeting of the Australian Climate Change Initiative. Choose six people to represent the roles and a further six to research each opinion further. The rest of the class will represent the media and will be allowed question time at the end of the presentation. Each student will write an eight-point summary of what the initiative should be.

2. Imagine it is 2012 and the Kyoto targets have been met. Greenhouse gases are continuing to rise because of pollution from developing countries that have expanded their economies. Work with two other people to develop Kyoto Protocol 2, outlining general objectives and specific action that needs to occur.

Worksheets

6.6 The nuclear debate

Alternative/renewable energy representative

I represent green businesses in Australia who stand to lose by not being a part of the Kyoto Protocol. Some of these businesses capture greenhouse gases from landfill; some are involved in producing renewable energy such as wind power; others are involved in tree planting to combat greenhouse gas emissions. Our activities reduce emissions and create carbon credits, which can be sold to polluting businesses such as power stations to help them meet their greenhouse targets. Farmers could also earn credits by changing farming practices — some are already earning money from tree planting.

Energy demand in Australia is set to increase by up to 50 per cent in the next 20 years. One of the greatest incentives for greenhouse gas reductions would be to increase the compulsory renewable energy target from the current 2 per cent to 10 per cent. It is essential that we develop large-scale use of renewable energy and

energy-efficient technologies. Many European countries have rapidly growing solar and wind power industries because of strong investment by governments and businesses to meet emission targets.

By not ratifying the Protocol, Australian businesses may be locked out of the global emissions market that could be worth billions of dollars. For example, Australia’s clean businesses (such as wind-power companies or businesses planting trees) will not be able to get carbon credits if we are not part of Kyoto. Kyoto countries may wish to deal only with other Kyoto countries. There may not be an incentive for the fossil fuel industry to be less polluting if Australia does not participate in the Protocol.

Fossil fuel company representative

We do not think there is a need to sign the Kyoto Protocol as we are voluntarily looking at ways to reduce emissions. Victoria alone has a 200-year supply of brown coal — if this cannot be used to generate power for businesses and homes, the economy will suffer. We support research into technologies such as clean coal

and geosequestration that will take carbon from emissions and safely dispose of them. The government will need to help us invest in technology that will use coal more cleanly — in that way, we will still be able to sell coal to other countries. At the moment, the sale of coal to China, which does not as yet have emission targets, will see the industry through a few years.

It is not a matter of limiting the use of fossil fuels, but investing in technology to make the fossil fuels cleaner and keeping our economy growing.

Islander representing low-lying island nations

I want to speak about the plight of the small island nations of the world. We emit very little of the greenhouse gases that contribute to global warming. Our economies are generally very low Gross Domestic Product. In fact, the United States emits more greenhouse pollution than 151 developing nations combined.

Yet, we are at the forefront of one of the impacts of global warming — rising sea levels. This is occurring already, threatening water supplies, agriculture and tourism. Some people have already had to move from islands or parts of islands, and some small islands have disappeared under rising seas — these people are

climate refugees. Letting global warming continue until we are forced to address it is already causing disruption and severely damaging economies. Many of you talk about the economic cost of complying with the Kyoto Protocol. I say, think about the economic, social, environmental and political costs of doing nothing.

GEOGRAPHY 2

156

Check & Challenge

GLOBAL WARMING

AND CLIMATE CHANGE

1. Summarise the spatial interaction between people and climate change by referring to examples in this chapter. Include the impact of people on the environment and how the environment affects people.

2. Use examples in the chapter to describe the impact of climate change at the following scales: local, national, regional and global.

GLOBAL WARMING

PATTERNS

1. Study the scatter graph below.(a) List the three countries producing the:

• highest CO2 per capita• lowest CO2 per capita.

(b) List the three countries with the: • highest GDP per capita• lowest GDP per capita.

(c) Describe the general relationship between CO2 production and GDP per capita shown by the graph.

(d) List three anomalies to this pattern.

CO2 emissions per capita plotted against GDP per capita, selected countries, 2002

Source: International Energy Agency

Turkey

Thailand

BrazilPhilippines

Argentina

0 5000 10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 30 000 35 000

GDP per capita (in 1995 US$ using ppp)

25

20

15

10

5

0

CO

2 p

er

cap

ita

Mexico

Egypt

China

Iran

Russia

Poland

Korea

Australia Canada

SpainItaly

UK

Belgium Netherlands

USA

Japan

SwitzerlandFrance

Germany

World GDP per capita = 7000

World CO2/pop = 3.9

2. Draw a graph to show the data in the table below.(a) What is the relationship between population

growth and CO2 emissions?(b) How can the differences between developed

and developing countries be explained?

Regional predictions for CO2 emissions and population growth 1985–2100

* Including emissions from deforestation and cement production

3. Why do you think the Kyoto Protocol has initially set greenhouse gas emissions only for industrialised countries?

THE IMPACT OF

CLIMATE CHANGE

1. List current evidence that shows climate change is already occurring.

2. Conduct research into the effect of climate change on animals and plants, including evidence for the change in seasons and the spread of disease.

Developing world

Developed world

World total

Population size (billions)

1985 3.64 1.23 4.87

2025 6.76 1.43 8.19

2100 8.95 1.47 10.42

CO2 emissions per capita

1985 0.59 3.13 1.23

2025 1.01 3.88 1.51

2100 1.58 8.13 2.50

Total CO2 emissions *

1985 2.15 3.85 6.0

2025 6.85 5.55 12.4

2100 14.15 11.95 26.1

ON

THE CD-R

OM

Time trap


157

3. Study the map of Australia below.(a) Describe the general pattern for 2005 shown

by the map.(b) Which state/territory experienced the greatest

change?(c) Which state experienced the only increase in

rainfall?(d) List some possible impacts of this trend for

two regions in Australia.

2005 temperature and rainfall variation from the long-term average

4. In Australia, how will the number of days with snow cover be affected by the climate changes that the CSIRO expects to occur?

5000 1000 km

N

13%

15.5%

4.2%

3.3%

13.1%4.5%

24%

4.2%

5.2%

12.7%

5.6%

12%

7%2.6%

WesternAustralia

SouthAustralia

NorthernTerritory Queensland

New South Wales

Victoria

Tasmania

AUSTRALIA

5.8%

3.9%

3%

4%

Temperaturevariation

Rainfallvariation

5. List three ways the ski industry might respond to these projections.

6. Visit the website for this book and click on the Bangladesh weblink for this chapter (see ‘Weblinks’, page vii). Study the diagram of the potential impact of a rise in sea level on Bangladesh. Describe this impact.

7. Explain how people living in low-lying areas and businesses such as the ski industry, are ‘frontline victims’ of global warming.

ACTION TO TACKLE

CLIMATE CHANGE

1. Discuss the problem of tackling a global problem such as climate change. How has the Kyoto Protocol begun this process?

2. Make a list of actions governments can take to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Identify the advantages and disadvantages of each.

3. Identify the action individuals can take to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Make a list of five things your family and school can do to reduce global warming.

4. Visit the website for this book and click on the CO2 Calculator weblink for this chapter (see ‘Weblinks’, page vii) to complete a more complex CO2 calculator. You may like to work with another student to complete this. Note: This is a UK site and you will need to use kilometres and Australian dollars.

Cuna Village on a San Blas island, Panama, Central America

Chapter 6 - Jacaranda · of rising world temperatures over time. Most ... AND CLIMATE CHANGE Chapter 6 ... 3. Heat radiating back into space 4.

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