Chapter 5: Public Opinion Our government rests on public opinion. Abraham Lincoln 2Copyright 2011 Cengage Learning.

Chapter 5: Public OpinionChapter 5: Public Opinion

Our government rests on public opinion.

Abraham Lincoln

2Copyright 2011 Cengage Learning

Public Opinion

• An aggregate of individual attitudes or beliefs• Polls measure public opinion

• Foundation of democracy

• Private opinion becomes public opinion when an individual takes some type of action to express an opinion to others publicly

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Defining Public Opinion

• Consensus: general agreement on an issue

• Divisive opinion: public opinion which is polarized between two opposite positions

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Consensus vs. Divisive Opinions

Consensus Opinion Divisive Opinion

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Political Socialization

• Sources of political socialization• Family and the social environment• Educational system• Peer group• Opinion leaders• Media

• Agenda setting

• Equals family influence

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Political Socialization

• Political events can produce a long-lasting impact on opinion formation. • Generational effect (cohort effect) are the effects

on opinion from the era in which one lives• Great Depression

• Watergate

• September 11 terrorist attacks

• Reagan years vs. Obama years

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Political Preferences and Voting Behavior

• Demographic Influences• Education• Economic Status• Religious Influence: Denomination• Religious Influence: Commitment• Race and Ethnicity• Gender• Geography• Age

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Liberals/Conservatives Differ on Spending for Safety Net and Environmental Issues

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Red States and Blue States Have Similar Opinions on Many Controversial Issues

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11

Voting Gender Gap, 1992 to 2008

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Election-Specific Voting Behavior Factors

• Party Identification (partisanship)• Political ideology affected by both political and

social values

• Perception of the Candidates

• Issue Preferences

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Role of Elites

• Elite Theory: public opinion is shaped by discourse among elites, is top-to-bottom process

• Modern elites shape citizen thinking• Media/political observers• Politicians• Policymakers

• Citizens must be exposed to the message and must be open to it

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Polling about the Economy

This story discusses American’s pessimism about economic recovery, and their views on Congress. Tea party politics is seen by many as a viable alternative.

Airdate: 5/21/2010

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Click the icon to open the movieVideo Supplied by Motion Gallery

Video Questions

1. Are the poll results an accurate reflection of Americans’ views about Congress? Will this impact Congressional legislation?

2. Why are “tea party” members more likely to identify with Republican views?

3. Does an individual’s socioeconomic status affect their political views? How?

4. Are economic recovery efforts swayed by public opinion?

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Measuring Public Opinion

• The History of Opinion Polls• 1800s: Straw Polls• 1930s: Modern, relatively accurate polling techniques

developed by George Gallup, Elmo Roper and others• Post WWII: University of Michigan founded Survey

Research Center• JFK: first president to use polling

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Measuring Public Opinion (cont)

• Sampling Techniques• Representative Sampling (accurate)

• The Principle of Randomness

• A purely random sample will be representative within the stated margin of error. The larger the sample of the population, the smaller the margin of error.

• Quota Sampling (less accurate)

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Polling Terms

• Population is entire group the poll represents

• Sample• Subset of a population• Norm for an accurate sample is 1,000 people

• Representative Sample• Not biased • All members of population have equal chance of

being interviewed

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Polling Terms (cont)

• Confidence interval: the statistical range that takes random error into account

• Sampling error: measure of the accuracy of a public opinion poll

• Nonattitudes• Respondents have no opinion or are uninformed• Sources of poll errors when individuals feel

compelled to answer

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Problems with Polls

• Sampling Errors• The difference between a sample’s results and the

true result if the entire population had been interviewed.

• Many poll results can be misleading• Scientific polling (random sampling) increases accuracy

• When can sampling errors be dangerous?

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PEANUTS © 1998 Charles Schulz. Reprinted by permission of United Feature Syndicate, Inc.

BLONDIE by Young & Drake. © Reprinted with special permission of King Features Syndicate

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Problems with Polls (cont)

• Poll Questions • Yes/no answers are a problem if the issue admits to

shades of gray. Often, people will attempt to please the interviewer.

• Push Polls • Attempts to spread negative statements about a

candidate by posing as a polltaker. • Used by candidates at every level

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Infamous Chicago Tribune headline on November 2, 1948 predicting Truman’s presidential defeat. Polls showed Truman was behind. © UPI /Bettmann /Corbis

Dewey Defeats Truman?

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Technology and Opinion Polls

• Advent of Telephone Polling• Easier and less expensive than

door-to-door polling

• Became new standard

• Polling fatigue (many are market research)

• Declining nonresponse rates

• Cell phone proliferation has reduced poll accuracy

• Use of caller ID/answering machines affects results

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Technology and Opinion Polls (cont)

• Internet Polling• There are many unscientific “nonpolls” on the

Internet• Not yet truly representative• In time, nonresponse rates to Internet polling could

escalate like those of telephone polls.

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Public Opinion and the Political Process

• Political Culture and Popular Opinion• A set of attitudes and ideas about the nation and

government. Certain shared beliefs about important values are considered the core of American political culture.

• Current U.S. values include liberty, equality and personal achievement

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Presidential Election Polling

This story talks about why polling is so complex: different polls make different assumptions about voters, and thus, reach different results.

Airdate: 10/24/2008

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Click the icon to open the movieVideo Supplied by Motion Gallery

Video Questions

1. How can inaccurate polling data hinder democracy?

2. What changes would you expect to see in the collection of public opinion data in the next few years?

3. Did polling data affect the outcome of the 2008 presidential election?

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Public Opinion and the Political Process

• Political Culture/Support

• Political Trust• Americans generally trust

the political system to resolve issues.

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Public Opinion About Government

• Trust in government peaked after 9/11, but fell back thereafter.

• Over the years, the military and churches receive the highest levels of public confidence.

• After 9/11, confidence in the military reached new highs. • Confidence in churches is hurt by a series of sexual abuse

scandals.

• The Supreme Court scores highly

• Media, Congress, labor unions, and business come off more poorly.

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Confidence in Institutions: Percentage of Americans Who Have a “Great Deal” or “Quite a Lot” of Confidence in Major U.S. Institutions

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Public Opinion and Policymaking

• The general public believes the leadership should pay attention to popular opinion.

• Leaders themselves are less likely to believe this. • Setting Limits on Government Action

• Public opinion may be at its strongest in preventing politicians from embracing highly unpopular policies.

• When public opinion changes drastically, government policy is much more likely to change as well.

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Public Opinion and Policymaking (cont)

• Polarization: stark political disagreement• Currently at high levels• Fuels controversy and political attacks

• Depolarization: parties agree and have similar policy positions• Offers little political choice• Leads to decreased political participation

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Questions for Critical Thinking

1. In what ways have you been socialized politically? Compare and contrast your experiences with your classmates.

2. In your opinion, what are the core American political values?

3. How will current political polarization affect U.S. policymaking?

4. What purposes do public opinion polls serve?

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Web Links

• The Gallup Organization

• MSNBC

• Pollingreport.com

• Roper Center

• American National Election Studies (ANES )

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