Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research & Forecasting Demandafnanhossain.weebly.com/uploads/2/6/1/5/26152362/chapter_4.pdf · Chapter 4 –Conducting Marketing Research & Forecasting

Chapter 4 – Conducting Marketing Research & Forecasting Demand

Md Afnan Hossain – Lecturer SouthEast UniversityCourse Code: Mkt 3123 (D,E)

Contents Source: Kotlar, Keller, Koshy, Jha (2014) Marketing Management.

Forbes, The Economist, Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Business Week, CNN Business

Marketing Management

What is Marketing Research?

Marketing research is the systematic

design, collection, analysis, and reporting of

data and findings relevant to a specific

marketing situation facing the company.

The Marketing Research Process

Define the problem

Develop research plan

Collect information

Analyze information

Present findings

Make

decision

Research Approaches

Observation

Ethnographic--link between culture & behavior

&/or how cultural processes develop over time

(participant observation)

Focus group—discuss topics of interest (LS)

Survey—knowledge, beliefs, preferences,

satisfaction

Behavioral data--Data—purchasing data

Experimentation—cause and effect

relationships

Focus Group in Session

Research Instruments

Questionnaires

Qualitative Measures

Technological Devices

Questionnaire Do’s and Don’ts

Ensure questions are free

of bias

Make questions simple

Make questions specific

Avoid jargon

Avoid sophisticated words

Avoid ambiguous words

Avoid negatives

Avoid hypothetical's

Avoid words that could be

misheard

Use mutually exclusive

categories

Allow for “other” in fixed

response questions

Question Types - Dichotomous

In arranging this trip, did you contact

American Airlines?

Yes No

Question Types – Multiple Choice

With whom are you traveling on this trip?

No one

Spouse

Spouse and children

Children only

Business associates/friends/relatives

An organized tour group

Question Types – Likert Scale

Indicate your level of agreement with the

following statement: Small airlines generally give

better service than large ones.

Strongly disagree

Disagree

Neither agree nor disagree

Agree

Strongly agree

Question Types – Semantic Differential

American Airlines

Large ………………………………...…….Small

Experienced………………….….Inexperienced

Modern……………………….…..Old-fashioned

Question Types – Importance Scale

Airline food service is _____ to me.

Extremely important

Very important

Somewhat important

Not very important

Not at all important

Question Types – Rating Scale

American Airlines’ food service is _____.

Excellent

Very good

Good

Fair

Poor

Question Types –

Intention to Buy Scale

How likely are you to purchase tickets on

American Airlines if in-flight Internet access

were available?

Definitely buy

Probably buy

Not sure

Probably not buy

Definitely not buy

Question Types –

Completely Unstructured

What is your opinion of American Airlines?

Question Types –

Word Association

What is the first word that comes to your mind

when you hear the following?

Airline ________________________

American _____________________

Travel ________________________

Question Types –

Sentence Completion

When I choose an airline, the most important

consideration in my decision is:

_____________________________________

_____________________________________

_____________________________________

_____________________________________

_____________________________________

_____________________________________

__________________.

Question Types –

Story Completion

“I flew American a few days ago. I noticed that

the exterior and interior of the plane had very

bright colors. This aroused in me the following

thoughts and feelings.” Now complete the story.

_______________________________________

_______________________________________

_______________________________________

_______________________________________

_______________________________________

_______________________________________

Question Types –

Picture (Empty Balloons)

Question Types –

Thematic Apperception Test

Make up a story that reflects what you think is happening in this picture.

Qualitative Measures

Shadowing—observing people

Behavior mapping—photographing

people with a space—2 or 3 days

Consumer journey—keeping track of

interactions a consumer has with a product, service,

or space

Camera journals—ask consumers to keep

visual diaries of activities and impression

related to a product

Extreme user interviews—talking to

people about a product and evaluating their

experience with it

Storytelling—prompting people to tell

personal stories about their consumer

experiences

Unfocused groups—interview a

diverse group of people to explore ideas

Technological Devices

Galvanometers (measure

interest or emotions aroused by

Exposure to a specific ad or picture)

Tachistoscope (flashes an ad to a

Subject with an exposure interval and

respondent describes everything he/she recalls)

Eye cameras (study respondents’

eye movement to see where their eyes

land 1st and how long, etc.)

Audiometers (record when TV is on

and the channel)

GPS (global positioning system, can

Determine how many billboards a person

may walk or drive by during a day)

Sampling Plan

Sampling unit: Who is to be surveyed?

Sample size: How many people should be

surveyed?

Sampling procedure: How should the

respondents be chosen?

Types of Samples

Probability Simple random

Every member of population has an equal chance of selection

Stratified random

Population is divided into mutually exclusive groups (age groups) and random samples are drawn from each group

Cluster area

Population is divided into mutually exclusive groups (city blocks) and a sample is taken from each group

Non-probability Convenience

Selects the most accessible population members

Judgment

Selects population members who are good prospects for accurate information

Quota

Selects and interviews a prescribed number of people in each of several categories

4-25

Contact MethodsMail Questionnaire

(For people that would not give

personal interviews or whose responses

might be biased or distorted by interviewer)

Telephone Interview(Gather information quickly, however

interview are short and non-personal)

Personal Interview(Most versatile and expensive,

subject to interview bias or distortion)

Online Interview(Inexpensive, faster, honest, versatile, samples small

and skewed, tech problems and inconsistencies)

Pros and Cons of Online Research

Advantages

Inexpensive

Fast

Accuracy of data, even

for sensitive questions

Versatility

Disadvantages

Small samples

Skewed samples

Technological problems

Inconsistencies

Barriers Limiting the Use of

Marketing Research

A narrow conception of the research

Uneven caliber of researchers

Poor framing of the problem

Late and occasionally erroneous findings

Personality and presentational differences

What are Marketing Metrics?

Marketing metrics are the set of measures

that helps marketers quantify, compare, and

interpret marketing performance.

Marketing Metrics

External

Awareness

Market share

Relative price

Number of complaints

Customer satisfaction

Distribution

Total number of customers

Loyalty

Internal

Awareness of goals

Commitment to goals

Active support

Resource adequacy

Staffing levels

Desire to learn

Willingness to change

Freedom to fail

Autonomy

What is Marketing-Mix Modeling?

Marketing-mix models analyze data from a

variety of sources, such as retailer scanner

data, company shipment data, pricing, media,

and promotion spending data, to understand

more precisely the effects of specific

marketing activities.

Marketing Dashboards

A customer-performance scorecard records how well the company is doing year after year on customer-based measures.

A stakeholder-performance scorecard tracks the satisfaction of various constituencies who have a critical interest in and impact on the company’s performance including employees, suppliers, banks, distributors, retailers, and stockholders.

Vocabulary for Demand Measurement

Market demand—total volume that would be bought by a defined customer

group in a defined geographical area in a defined time period in a defined

marketing environment under a defined marketing program.

Market forecast—expected level of industry expenditure

Market potential—upper limit of industry expenditure

Company demand—estimated share of market demand at alternative levels of

company marketing effort in a given time period.

Company sales forecast—expected level of company sales based on a

chosen marketing plan and an assumed marketing environment.

Company sales potential—sales limit approached by company demand as

company marketing effort increases relative to that of competitors.

Estimating Current Demand Total market potential

Maximum amount of sales available to all the firms in an industry during: a given period

under a given level of industry marketing effort, and

environmental conditions.

Area market potential

Market buildup method Identifying all potential buyers in each market and estimating

their potential purchases

Multiple-factor index method Sales are directly related to a series of indices

Brand development index

Index of brand sales to category sales

Estimating Future Demand

Survey of Buyers’ Intentions—probability of

purchase

Composite of Sales Force Opinions—salespeople

Expert Opinion—dealers, distributors, suppliers,

marketing consultants, trade associations

Past-Sales Analysis—trend, cycle, seasonal, erratic

Market-Test Method—select some territories to sell

the product

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