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Chapter 10 Aggregate Demand I - Meltem Daysal · 2009-08-30 · Learning Objectives ... IS-LM model Intersection of IS and LM curves shows the unique point ... learn how the aggregate

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Page 1: Chapter 10 Aggregate Demand I - Meltem Daysal · 2009-08-30 · Learning Objectives ... IS-LM model Intersection of IS and LM curves shows the unique point ... learn how the aggregate

1

CHAPTER 10 0

Chapter 10

Aggregate Demand I

Page 2: Chapter 10 Aggregate Demand I - Meltem Daysal · 2009-08-30 · Learning Objectives ... IS-LM model Intersection of IS and LM curves shows the unique point ... learn how the aggregate

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CHAPTER 10 1

Page 3: Chapter 10 Aggregate Demand I - Meltem Daysal · 2009-08-30 · Learning Objectives ... IS-LM model Intersection of IS and LM curves shows the unique point ... learn how the aggregate

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CHAPTER 10 2

Learning Objectives• Chapter 9 introduced the model of aggregate

demand and aggregate supply.

• Long run (Classical Theory)

– prices flexible

– output determined by factors of production &

technology

– unemployment equals its natural rate

• Short run (Keynes)

– prices fixed

– output determined by aggregate demand

– unemployment is negatively related to output

Page 4: Chapter 10 Aggregate Demand I - Meltem Daysal · 2009-08-30 · Learning Objectives ... IS-LM model Intersection of IS and LM curves shows the unique point ... learn how the aggregate

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CHAPTER 10 3

Learning Objectives• This chapter develops the IS-LM model

(Hicks), the theory that yields the aggregate demand curve.

• We focus on the short run and assume the price level is fixed.

Page 5: Chapter 10 Aggregate Demand I - Meltem Daysal · 2009-08-30 · Learning Objectives ... IS-LM model Intersection of IS and LM curves shows the unique point ... learn how the aggregate

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CHAPTER 10 4

The Big Picture

KeynesianCross

Theory of Liquidity

Preference

IS

curve

LM

curve

IS-LM

model

Agg. demand

curve

Agg.

supply

curve

Model of

Agg.

Demand

and Agg.

Supply

Explanation of short-run

fluctuations

Page 6: Chapter 10 Aggregate Demand I - Meltem Daysal · 2009-08-30 · Learning Objectives ... IS-LM model Intersection of IS and LM curves shows the unique point ... learn how the aggregate

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CHAPTER 10 5

1. The IS Curve1.1 The Keynesian Cross

• A simple closed economy model in which

income is determined by expenditure. (due to Keynes)

• Notation:

E = C + I + G = planned expenditure

Y = real GDP = actual expenditure

• Difference between actual & planned

expenditure: unplanned inventory investment

Page 7: Chapter 10 Aggregate Demand I - Meltem Daysal · 2009-08-30 · Learning Objectives ... IS-LM model Intersection of IS and LM curves shows the unique point ... learn how the aggregate

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CHAPTER 10 6

1.1 The Keynesian Cross

( )C C Y T= −

I I=

,G G T T= =

( )E C Y T I G= − + +

Actual expenditure Planned expenditure

Y E

=

=

consumption function:

for now, investment is exogenous:

planned expenditure:

Equilibrium condition:

govt policy variables:

Page 8: Chapter 10 Aggregate Demand I - Meltem Daysal · 2009-08-30 · Learning Objectives ... IS-LM model Intersection of IS and LM curves shows the unique point ... learn how the aggregate

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CHAPTER 10 7

1.1 The Keynesian CrossPlanned Expenditure

income, output, Y

Eplanned

expenditure

E =C +I +G

MPC1

Page 9: Chapter 10 Aggregate Demand I - Meltem Daysal · 2009-08-30 · Learning Objectives ... IS-LM model Intersection of IS and LM curves shows the unique point ... learn how the aggregate

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CHAPTER 10 8

1.1 The Keynesian Cross Equilibrium Condition

income, output, Y

Eplanned

expenditureE =Y

45º

Page 10: Chapter 10 Aggregate Demand I - Meltem Daysal · 2009-08-30 · Learning Objectives ... IS-LM model Intersection of IS and LM curves shows the unique point ... learn how the aggregate

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CHAPTER 10 9

1.1 The Keynesian Cross

income, output, Y

Eplanned

expenditureE =Y

E =C +I +G

Equilibrium

income

Page 11: Chapter 10 Aggregate Demand I - Meltem Daysal · 2009-08-30 · Learning Objectives ... IS-LM model Intersection of IS and LM curves shows the unique point ... learn how the aggregate

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CHAPTER 10 10

1.1 The Keynesian CrossAn increase in government purchases

Y

E

E

=

Y

E =C +I +G1

E1 = Y1

E =C +I +G2

E2 = Y2∆∆∆∆Y

At Y1,

there is now an

unplanned drop

in inventory…

…so firms

increase output,

and income

rises toward a

new equilibrium

∆∆∆∆G

Page 12: Chapter 10 Aggregate Demand I - Meltem Daysal · 2009-08-30 · Learning Objectives ... IS-LM model Intersection of IS and LM curves shows the unique point ... learn how the aggregate

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CHAPTER 10 11

1.1 The Keynesian Cross

An increase in government purchasesY C I G= + +

Y C I G∆ = ∆ + ∆ + ∆

MPC Y G= × ∆ + ∆

C G= ∆ + ∆

(1 MPC) Y G− ×∆ = ∆

1

1 MPCY G

∆ = × ∆ −

equilibrium condition

in changes

because I exogenous

b.c. ∆∆∆∆C = MPC (∆∆∆∆Y - ∆∆∆∆T)

Collect terms with ∆∆∆∆Yon the left side of the equals sign:

Finally, solve for ∆∆∆∆Y :

Page 13: Chapter 10 Aggregate Demand I - Meltem Daysal · 2009-08-30 · Learning Objectives ... IS-LM model Intersection of IS and LM curves shows the unique point ... learn how the aggregate

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CHAPTER 10 12

1.1 The Keynesian Cross

The government purchases multiplier

Definition: the increase in income resulting from

a 1unit increase in G.

In this model, the G multiplier equals

1

1 MPC

Y

G

∆=

∆ −

Page 14: Chapter 10 Aggregate Demand I - Meltem Daysal · 2009-08-30 · Learning Objectives ... IS-LM model Intersection of IS and LM curves shows the unique point ... learn how the aggregate

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CHAPTER 10 13

1.1 The Keynesian Cross

The government purchases multiplier

Example: MPC = 0.8

1

1 MPC

1 15

1 0 8 0 2. .

Y G

G G G

∆ = ∆−

= ∆ = ∆ = ∆−

The increase in G causes income to

increase by 5 times as much!

15

1 0 . 8

Y

G

∆= =

∆ −

Page 15: Chapter 10 Aggregate Demand I - Meltem Daysal · 2009-08-30 · Learning Objectives ... IS-LM model Intersection of IS and LM curves shows the unique point ... learn how the aggregate

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CHAPTER 10 14

1.1 The Keynesian Cross

The government purchases multiplier

Why is the multiplier greater than 1?

• Initially, the increase in G causes an equal

increase in Y: ∆∆∆∆Y = ∆∆∆∆G.

• But ↑Y ⇒ ↑C

⇒ further ↑Y

⇒ further ↑C

⇒ further ↑Y

• So the final impact on income is much bigger

than the initial ∆∆∆∆G.

Page 16: Chapter 10 Aggregate Demand I - Meltem Daysal · 2009-08-30 · Learning Objectives ... IS-LM model Intersection of IS and LM curves shows the unique point ... learn how the aggregate

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CHAPTER 10 15

1.1 The Keynesian CrossAn increase in taxes

Y

E

E

=

Y

E =C2 +I +G

E2 = Y2

E =C1 +I +G

E1 = Y1∆∆∆∆Y

At Y1, there is now

an unplanned

inventory buildup……so firms

reduce output,

and income

falls toward a

new equilibrium

∆∆∆∆C = −−−−MPC ∆∆∆∆T

Initially, the tax

increase reduces

consumption, and

therefore E:

Page 17: Chapter 10 Aggregate Demand I - Meltem Daysal · 2009-08-30 · Learning Objectives ... IS-LM model Intersection of IS and LM curves shows the unique point ... learn how the aggregate

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CHAPTER 10 16

1.1 The Keynesian Cross

An increase in taxesY C I G∆ = ∆ + ∆ + ∆

( )MPC Y T= × ∆ − ∆

C= ∆

(1 MPC) MPCY T− ×∆ = − × ∆

eq’m condition in changes

I and G exogenous

Solving for ∆∆∆∆Y :

MPC

1 MPCY T

−∆ = × ∆ −

Final result:

Page 18: Chapter 10 Aggregate Demand I - Meltem Daysal · 2009-08-30 · Learning Objectives ... IS-LM model Intersection of IS and LM curves shows the unique point ... learn how the aggregate

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CHAPTER 10 17

1.1 The Keynesian CrossThe tax multiplier

Definition: the change in income resulting from

a 1unit increase in T :

MPC

1 MPC

Y

T

∆ −=

∆ −

0 8 0 84

1 0 8 0 2

. .

. .

Y

T

∆ − −= = = −

∆ −

If MPC = 0.8, then the tax multiplier equals

Page 19: Chapter 10 Aggregate Demand I - Meltem Daysal · 2009-08-30 · Learning Objectives ... IS-LM model Intersection of IS and LM curves shows the unique point ... learn how the aggregate

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CHAPTER 10 18

1.1 The Keynesian CrossThe tax multiplier

…is negative:

An increase in taxes reduces consumer

spending, which reduces equilibrium income.

…is greater than one (in absolute value):

A change in taxes has a multiplier effect on

income.

…is smaller than the govt spending multiplier:

Consumers save the fraction (1-MPC) of a tax

cut, so the initial boost in spending from a tax cut

is smaller than from an equal increase in G.

Page 20: Chapter 10 Aggregate Demand I - Meltem Daysal · 2009-08-30 · Learning Objectives ... IS-LM model Intersection of IS and LM curves shows the unique point ... learn how the aggregate

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CHAPTER 10 19

1.2 Defining and Deriving the IS Curve

1.2.1 Using Keynesian Cross and Investment Function

Definition: a graph of all combinations of r and Y that

result in goods market equilibrium,

i.e. actual expenditure (output) = planned expenditure

The equation for the IS curve is:

( ) ( )Y C Y T I r G= − + +

Page 21: Chapter 10 Aggregate Demand I - Meltem Daysal · 2009-08-30 · Learning Objectives ... IS-LM model Intersection of IS and LM curves shows the unique point ... learn how the aggregate

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CHAPTER 10 20

Y2Y1

Y2Y1

1.2 Defining and Deriving the IS Curve1.2.1 Using Keynesian Cross and Investment Function

↓r ⇒ ↑I

Y

E

r

Y

E =C +I (r1 )+G

E =C +I (r2 )+G

r1

r2

E =Y

IS

∆∆∆∆I⇒ ↑E

⇒ ↑Y

Page 22: Chapter 10 Aggregate Demand I - Meltem Daysal · 2009-08-30 · Learning Objectives ... IS-LM model Intersection of IS and LM curves shows the unique point ... learn how the aggregate

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CHAPTER 10 21

1.2 Defining and Deriving the IS Curve1.2.2 Using Loanable Funds Approach

S, I

r

I (r )r1

r2

r

YY1

r1

r2

(a) The L.F. model (b) The IS curve

Y2

S1S2

IS

Page 23: Chapter 10 Aggregate Demand I - Meltem Daysal · 2009-08-30 · Learning Objectives ... IS-LM model Intersection of IS and LM curves shows the unique point ... learn how the aggregate

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CHAPTER 10 22

1.2 Defining and Deriving the IS Curve

• The IS curve is negatively sloped.

• Intuition:

A fall in the interest rate motivates firms to

increase investment spending, which drives

up total planned spending (E ).

To restore equilibrium in the goods market,

output (a.k.a. actual expenditure, Y ) must

increase.

Page 24: Chapter 10 Aggregate Demand I - Meltem Daysal · 2009-08-30 · Learning Objectives ... IS-LM model Intersection of IS and LM curves shows the unique point ... learn how the aggregate

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CHAPTER 10 23

1.3 Fiscal Policy and the IS Curve

• We can use the IS-LM model to see

how fiscal policy (G and T ) can affect aggregate demand and output.

• Let’s start by using the Keynesian Cross

to see how fiscal policy shifts the IScurve…

Page 25: Chapter 10 Aggregate Demand I - Meltem Daysal · 2009-08-30 · Learning Objectives ... IS-LM model Intersection of IS and LM curves shows the unique point ... learn how the aggregate

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CHAPTER 10 24

Y2Y1

Y2Y1

1.3 Fiscal Policy and the IS Curve

At any value of r,

↑G ⇒ ↑E ⇒ ↑Y

Y

E

r

Y

E =C +I (r1 )+G1

E =C +I (r1 )+G2

r1

E =Y

IS1

The horizontal

distance of the

IS shift equals

IS2

…so the IS curve

shifts to the right.

1

1 MPCY G∆ = ∆

−∆∆∆∆Y

Page 26: Chapter 10 Aggregate Demand I - Meltem Daysal · 2009-08-30 · Learning Objectives ... IS-LM model Intersection of IS and LM curves shows the unique point ... learn how the aggregate

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CHAPTER 10 25

2. The LM Curve

2.1 The Theory of Liquidity Preference

• A simple theory in which the interest rate

is determined by money supply and money demand. (due to Keynes again)

Page 27: Chapter 10 Aggregate Demand I - Meltem Daysal · 2009-08-30 · Learning Objectives ... IS-LM model Intersection of IS and LM curves shows the unique point ... learn how the aggregate

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CHAPTER 10 26

2.1 The Theory of Liquidity Preference

The supply of

real money

balances

is fixed:

( )sM P M P=

M/Preal money

balances

rinterest

rate( )sM P

M P

Page 28: Chapter 10 Aggregate Demand I - Meltem Daysal · 2009-08-30 · Learning Objectives ... IS-LM model Intersection of IS and LM curves shows the unique point ... learn how the aggregate

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CHAPTER 10 27

2.1 The Theory of Liquidity Preference

Demand for

real money

balances:

M/Preal money

balances

rinterest

rate( )sM P

M P

( ) ( )d

M P L r=

L (r )

Page 29: Chapter 10 Aggregate Demand I - Meltem Daysal · 2009-08-30 · Learning Objectives ... IS-LM model Intersection of IS and LM curves shows the unique point ... learn how the aggregate

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CHAPTER 10 28

2.1 The Theory of Liquidity Preference

The interest

rate adjusts

to equate the

supply and

demand for

money:

M/Preal money

balances

rinterest

rate( )sM P

M P

( )M P L r= L (r )

r1

Page 30: Chapter 10 Aggregate Demand I - Meltem Daysal · 2009-08-30 · Learning Objectives ... IS-LM model Intersection of IS and LM curves shows the unique point ... learn how the aggregate

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CHAPTER 10 29

2.1 The Theory of Liquidity PreferenceA change in money supply

To increase r,

Fed reduces

M

M/Preal money

balances

rinterest

rate

1M

P

L (r )

r1

r2

2M

P

Page 31: Chapter 10 Aggregate Demand I - Meltem Daysal · 2009-08-30 · Learning Objectives ... IS-LM model Intersection of IS and LM curves shows the unique point ... learn how the aggregate

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CHAPTER 10 30

2.2 Defining and Deriving the LM Curve2.2.1 Using Theory of Liquidity Preference

Now let’s put Y back into the money demand

function:

( , )M P L r Y=

The LM curve is a graph of all combinations of

r and Y that equate the supply and demand

for real money balances.

The equation for the LM curve is:

( )dM P L r Y= ( , )

Page 32: Chapter 10 Aggregate Demand I - Meltem Daysal · 2009-08-30 · Learning Objectives ... IS-LM model Intersection of IS and LM curves shows the unique point ... learn how the aggregate

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CHAPTER 10 31

2.2 Defining and Deriving the LM Curve2.2.1 Using Theory of Liquidity Preference

M/P

r

1M

P

L (r ,Y1 )

r1

r2

r

YY1

r1L (r ,Y2 )

r2

Y2

LM

(a) The market for real money balances

(b) The LM curve

Page 33: Chapter 10 Aggregate Demand I - Meltem Daysal · 2009-08-30 · Learning Objectives ... IS-LM model Intersection of IS and LM curves shows the unique point ... learn how the aggregate

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CHAPTER 10 32

2.2 Defining and Deriving the LM Curve2.2.2 Using Quantity Equation

• Quantity Equation

MV=PY

• Quantity Theory of money assumes constant velocity � vertical LM curve

• If we adjust it so that V=V(r) then we get the upward sloping LM curve again.

Page 34: Chapter 10 Aggregate Demand I - Meltem Daysal · 2009-08-30 · Learning Objectives ... IS-LM model Intersection of IS and LM curves shows the unique point ... learn how the aggregate

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CHAPTER 10 33

2.2 Defining and Deriving the LM

Curve• The LM curve is positively sloped.

• Intuition:

An increase in income raises money

demand.

Since the supply of real balances is fixed,

there is now excess demand in the

money market at the initial interest rate.

The interest rate must rise to restore

equilibrium in the money market.

Page 35: Chapter 10 Aggregate Demand I - Meltem Daysal · 2009-08-30 · Learning Objectives ... IS-LM model Intersection of IS and LM curves shows the unique point ... learn how the aggregate

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CHAPTER 10 34

2.3 Monetary Policy and the LM Curve

M/P

r

1M

P

L (r ,Y1 )r1

r2

r

YY1

r1

r2

LM1

(a) The market for real money balances

(b) The LM curve

2M

P

LM2

Page 36: Chapter 10 Aggregate Demand I - Meltem Daysal · 2009-08-30 · Learning Objectives ... IS-LM model Intersection of IS and LM curves shows the unique point ... learn how the aggregate

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CHAPTER 10 35

3. The short-run equilibrium

The short-run equilibrium is

the combination of r and Y

that simultaneously

satisfies the equilibrium

conditions in the goods &

money markets: ( ) ( )Y C Y T I r G= − + +

Y

r

( , )M P L r Y=

IS

LM

Equilibriuminterestrate

Equilibriumlevel of

income

Page 37: Chapter 10 Aggregate Demand I - Meltem Daysal · 2009-08-30 · Learning Objectives ... IS-LM model Intersection of IS and LM curves shows the unique point ... learn how the aggregate

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CHAPTER 10 36

Chapter summary1. Keynesian Cross

� basic model of income determination

� takes fiscal policy & investment as exogenous

� fiscal policy has a multiplied impact on

income.

2. IS curve

� comes from Keynesian Cross when planned

investment depends negatively on interest rate

� shows all combinations of r and Y that

equate planned expenditure with actual

expenditure on goods & services

Page 38: Chapter 10 Aggregate Demand I - Meltem Daysal · 2009-08-30 · Learning Objectives ... IS-LM model Intersection of IS and LM curves shows the unique point ... learn how the aggregate

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CHAPTER 10 37

Chapter summary3. Theory of Liquidity Preference

� basic model of interest rate determination

� takes money supply & price level as

exogenous

� an increase in the money supply lowers the

interest rate

4. LM curve

� comes from Liquidity Preference Theory when

money demand depends positively on income

� shows all combinations of r andY that equate

demand for real money balances with supply

Page 39: Chapter 10 Aggregate Demand I - Meltem Daysal · 2009-08-30 · Learning Objectives ... IS-LM model Intersection of IS and LM curves shows the unique point ... learn how the aggregate

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CHAPTER 10 38

Chapter summary5. IS-LM model

� Intersection of IS and LM curves shows the

unique point (Y, r ) that satisfies equilibrium in

both the goods and money markets.

Page 40: Chapter 10 Aggregate Demand I - Meltem Daysal · 2009-08-30 · Learning Objectives ... IS-LM model Intersection of IS and LM curves shows the unique point ... learn how the aggregate

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CHAPTER 10 39

Preview of Chapter 11In Chapter 11, we will

� use the IS-LM model to analyze the impact of policies and shocks

� learn how the aggregate demand curve comes from IS-LM

� use the IS-LM and AD-AS models together to analyze the short-run and long-run effects of shocks

� learn about the Great Depression using our models