Chapter 1 DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS AND BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE 8 th Edition 12nd semester 2010 Dr. Qusai Abuein.

Chapter 1

DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS AND BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE

8th Edition

12nd semester 2010 Dr. Qusai Abuein

Learning Objectives

• Understand today’s turbulent business environment and describe how organizations survive and even excel in such an environment

• Understand the need for computerized support of managerial decision making

• Understand an early framework for managerial decision making

• Learn the conceptual foundations of the decision support systems (DSS) methodology


Learning Objectives

• Describe the business intelligence (BI) methodology and concepts and relate them to DSS

• Describe the concept of work systems and its relationship to decision support

• List the major tools of computerized decision support

• Understand the major issues in implementing computerized support systems


Preface

• Nowadays managers use computerized support in making decisions.

• DSS is quickly becoming a shared commodity across the organization, utilizing the networks (Internet and Intranet).

• Data are stored in multiple locations. Using distributed systems, intranet, extranet and Internet, corporations can easily access those data, analyzing it and report it to decision makers.


Preface

• Various IS are being integrated with each other and/or with other automated systems. That integration results more accurate information, which enables managers to make better decisions.

• The friendly and easy to use DSS interface allows users to view and process data and models with standard web browsers with flexibility and efficiency.

• Managers can communicate with computer and the web using wireless and/or wired devices (cell phones, PADs)


Preface

• Data warehouse and their analytical tools (such as OLAP: On-Line Analytical Processing) enhance information access across organizational boundaries.

• Artificial Intelligence methods are improving the quality of decision making support and are becoming embedded in many applications (web search engines).

• Developments in organizational learning and knowledge management deliver the entire organization’s expertise to bear on problems anytime and anywhere.


Preface

• This course introduces these technologies, which we call management support systems (MMS).

• This course also introduces knowledge management, supply chain decision support, and web DSS.

• This course is about emerging advanced computer technologies for supporting the solution of managerial problems.


Introduction• This chapter covers the managerial decision making and

its computerized support.• The business environment today is changing and

becoming more and more complex.• Organizations are required to make frequent strategic,

tactical and organizational decisions. Some of which are very complex.

• Making such decisions may require considerable data, information and knowledge.

• Processing these, must be done quickly, frequently in real-time and suing computerized support.

• this book is about using business intelligent as computerized support for managerial decision making.


(1.1) Opening Vignette: Toyota using Business Intelligent to Excel• Keeping Vehicle in transit is money costing.• 144 to 160 million US$ / year• Problems in supply chain, deliver cars to dealers

made customers to buy cars from competitors (Honda).

• Data exists, but managers can not use this data strategically. No shared data, reports were always late.

• Managers were unable to make timely decisions.• IT in organization was unable to respond to the

growing business.92nd semester 2010 Dr. Qusai Abuein

(1.2) Changing Business Environments and Computerized Decision Support

• To realize why Toyota embraces computerized support, including business intelligence a “business pressures-responses-support model” has been developed. See Figure 1.1 next slide.

• The model components are:

1. The business environment (becomes complex)

2. Organizational responses: be reactive, anticipative, adaptive, and proactive, so as to take advantage of opportunities available

3. Computerized support that facilitates monitoring and enhance response


Managerial Decision Making



• The business Environment:– Today's environment complexity creates

a) opportunity on one hand and

b) problems on the other hand for organizations.

– Example: Globalization (Internet)a) One can easily find suppliers and costumers in many

countries, which means buying cheaper materials and sell more products and services.

b) More and stronger competitors.



• The intensity of the business environment factors (Markets, customer demands, Technology and societal) see table 1.1, increases with time, leading to more pressure and competition.

• Q) How managers will respond quickly, innovative and agilely under the above environment?

– By using computerized support. Take for example Toyota (opening vignette) TSL . They turned to BI to improve communication and to support executives in their effort to know exactly what is going on in each area of operation (real-time)

• Doing so, organization can cut expenses and increase customer satisfaction.

• Q) What is the major objective of the computerized DS?– It is to facilitate closing the gap between the current performance of an organization

and its desired performance.132nd semester 2010 Dr. Qusai Abuein

(1.3) Managerial Decision Making

• A decision is selection the best alternative from two or more solutions.

• Management is a process by which organizational goals are achieved through the use of resources.

• Resources are considered to be Input• Attaining goals is viewed as output• The degree of success is measured by

productivity (ratio of output to input)• Managers continuously make decisions to carry

out their functions (planning, organizing, directing and controlling)



• The nature of manager’s work• Managers perform 10 major roles classified into 3

categories (see table 1.2):– Interpersonal– Informational– Decisional

• To execute these roles, managers need information that is delivered efficiently and timely by computers.

• Manager is a decision maker.• Organizations are filled with decision makers at

different levels. 152nd semester 2010 Dr. Qusai Abuein


• The process of decision making• Lately, managers considered decision making as a

talent acquired over a long period of time through experience.

• Managers usually make decision by following a 4 steps process:1. Defining the problem (a decision situation that may deal with

some difficulty or with an opportunity)

2. Constructing a model that describes the real-world problem

3. Identifying possible solutions to the modeled problem and evaluating the solutions

4. Comparing, choosing, and recommending a potential solution to the problem



• One must make sure that sufficient alternative solutions are being considered, that the consequences using these alternatives can be predicted.

• The environment factors (table 1.1) make the evaluation process difficult for:– Technology and globalization result in more alternatives

– Uncertainty produced from government, politics competition and changing consumer demand, make prediction difficult.

– Need for making rapid decisions

– Environmental complexity grows every day, making decisions a complex task

• Based on above 4 reasons, it is nearly impossible to rely on trial-and-error approach to management

• Managers must use new tools and techniques for decision making17



• Technology insights 1.1

• Making clear-cut decision when needed is the most important 10 managerial practices.



• Decision support systems (DSS)

A conceptual framework for a process of supporting managerial decision- making, usually by modeling problems and employing quantitative models for solution analysis


(1.4) Computerized Support for Decision Making

• Computerized support are now penetrating complex managerial areas:

– Design

– Management of automated factories

– Application of AI methods

– Evaluation process

• Computer applications have moved from transaction processing and monitoring activities to problem analysis and solution applications. Most of the activities are done with the web-based technologies.



• The followings are the cornerstone of today’s modern management for decision support:1. BI tools

2. Data warehousing

3. Data Mining

4. Online Analytical processing (OLAP)

5. Dashboards

6. The webDashboard is a term now being used generally to refer to a web-based technology

page on which real time information is collated from various sources in the business. The metaphor of dashboard is adopted here to emphasize the nature of the data being displayed on the page, it is a real-time analysis as to how a business is operating, just like on an automobile dashboard real time information is displayed about the performance of that vehicle.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automobile

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dashboard_(interface)

(1.4) Computerized Support for Decision Making • Why use computerized decision support systems?

1. Speedy computations: enables decision makers to perform quick computations, low cost, timely and thousands of alternatives can be evaluated fast

2. Improved communication and collaboration: groups in different locations can use the web-based tools to communicate

3. Increased productivity of group members: using web-based tools saves money and time, since group gathering in one place is no more needed. Also software help decision makers to determine the best way to run a business in a short time



• Why use computerized decision support systems?

4. Improved data management: data stored inside and outside the organization (web). Computers transmit, search and store needed data quickly, economically, securely and transparently (how?)

5. Managing giant data warehouses: computers can deal (store, access) with huge digital data of any type quickly (parallel computers)

6. Quality support: quality of decisions can be improved since more data can be accessed, more alternatives can be evaluated, view of experts can be collected quickly, AI methods can be used to derive expertise, and complex simulations can be performed.



• H.W.: find simulations, videos and text about Japanese expected destructive earthquake, and how it affected decision making.

• Why use computerized decision support systems?

7. Agility support: DS technologies (intelligent systems) can empower people by allowing them to make good decisions quickly, even if they lack knowledge.

8. Overcoming cognitive limits in processing and storing information: the man mind has limited ability to process and store information.


(1.4)Computerized Support for Decision Making

• Cognitive limits indicates that the individual’s problem-solving capability is limited when a wide range of diverse information and knowledge is required.

• Computerized systems overcome the cognitive limits by quickly accessing and processing vast amount of stored information.

• Why use computerized decision support systems?9. Using the Web: the web changed how decision

makers are supported.10. Anywhere, anytime support: using wireless

technology


(1.5) An Early Framework for Computerized Decision Support • Figure 1.2 (next slide) shows the 3x3 matrix proposed

framework for computerized DS introduced by Gorry and Scott (1971).

• The two dimensions are:– D1: Degree of structuredness for the type of the decision.– D2: Type of control


(1.5) An Early Framework for Computerized Decision Support



– Degree of structuredness (D1)1. Structured decisions (programmed): routine and

typically repetitive problems for which standard solution exist.

2. Unstructured decisions (unprogrammed): complex problems for which there are no cut-and-dried solution methods.

• Four-phase decision making process (see Figure 1.3) next slide– Intelligence– Design– Choice– Implementation


An Early Framework for Computerized Decision Support



– Degree of structuredness (D1)3. Semistructured problems: fall between

structured and unstructured problems. Such as setting marketing budget for customer product.



– Types of control in all managerial activities (D2):

– Type of control that encompass all managerial activities: 1. Strategic planning: long range goals

2. Management control: efficient use of resources

3. Operational control: efficient execution of tasks



– The decision support matrix • The initial purpose of this matrix was to suggest

different types of computerized support to different cells in the matrix

• Structures and operational control-oriented tasks (cells 1,2,4) are performed by low-level managers.

• Tasks (cells 6,8,9) are performed by top executives.


(1.5) An Early Framework for Computerized Decision Support • Computer support for structured decisions

– For each category of decision, an easy-to-apply prescribed model and solution approach have been developed, this approach is called management science (MS). Also called operations research (OR).

– Management science (MS) or operations research (OR)

The application of a scientific approach and mathematical models to the analysis and solution of managerial decision situations (e.g., problems, opportunities)


(1.5) An Early Framework for Computerized Decision Support • MS says that solving a problem, managers should follow

the 4 steps system. • MS added a new step (step 2) to the process:

1. Defining the problem (a decision situation that may deal with some difficulty or with an opportunity)

2. Classify the problem into a standard category

3. Constructing a model that describes the real-world problem

4. Identifying possible solutions to the modeled problem and evaluating the solutions

5. Comparing, choosing, and recommending a potential solution to the problem

• Computerized methodologies can find solutions to the standard category model quickly and efficiently.



• Automated decision systems (ADS)– A new approach to support decision making is

called ADS– ADS is a business rules-based system that

provides a solution uses intelligence, usually in one functional area, to a specific repetitive decisions (such as pricing)

– ADS are mostly suitable for frontline employees who can see the customer information online and frequently make quick decisions.



• Case Study (Intelligent price setting using ADS). – Page 17. (H.W. for one student)





• Computer support for unstructured decisions • Unstructured problems can be only partially

supported by standard computerized quantitative methods.

• Customized solutions are usually necessary, such solutions may require certain expertise, that can be provided by intelligent systems.

• intuition and judgment, computerized communication, collaboration technologies and knowledge management play a greate role in this type of decisions.



• Computer support for semistructured problems

• For such problems a combination of both standard solution procedures and human judgment may be involved.

• MS can provide models for the structured portion.

• For the unstructured portion, a DSS can improve the quality of the information on which the decision is based by providing a range of alternative solutions along with their potential impacts.



• The benefits of computerized decision support 1. Companies work in an unstable or rapidly changing economy.2. E-commerce is changing the ways business is done. 3. Existing IS do not fully support decision making. 4. There are difficulties in tracking the numerous business

operations. (timely information is needed)5. Competition has increased especially global competition. (Coast

reduction is needed)

Q) What is the difference between e-commerce and E-business? (H.W)

Q) How to support semistructured problems suing several strategic and operational decisions?

(H.W): case 1.3


(1.6) The Concept of Decision Support Systems (DSS) • DSS can be used as an Umbrella term: Describes any

computerized system that supports decision making in an organization

• Case study 1.4 (page 21) H.W. It demonstrates some of the major undtructured or semistructured problems

• DSS can refer to a process for building customized application for unstructured or semistructured problems

• The architecture of DSS (Figure 1.5) (next 2nd slide)1. Data: Every problem needs data to be solved and every opportunity

needs data to be analyzed2. Models to manipulate data. These models can be A) standard (Excell

function) or B) customized3. Knowledge component4. Users5. User interface


(1.6) The Concept of Decision Support Systems (DSS) • Types of DSS:

1. Models-oriented DSS: quantitative models are used to generate a recommended solution to a problem.

2. Data-oriented DSS: support ad hoc reporting and queries.

• Ad hoc: is a Latin phrase which means "for this purpose". It generally signifies a solution designed for a specific problem or task, non-generalizable, and which cannot be adapted to other purposes.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Latin_phrases

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Purpose

(1.6) The Concept of Decision Support Systems (DSS)


(1.6) The Concept of Decision Support Systems (DSS)

– Types of DSS• model-oriented DSS: quantitative models used to

generate a recommended solution to a problem • data-oriented DSS: support ad-hoc reporting and

queries


(1.7) A Framework for Business Intelligence (BI)

• Business intelligence (BI):Is an umbrella term that combines architectures, tools, databases, applications, and methodologies

• BI’s major objective is to enable interactive access to data, to enable manipulation of data, and to give business managers and analysts the ability to conduct appropriate analysis.

• The process of BI is based on the transformation of data to information, then to decisions, and finally to actions.



• Business intelligence (BI):Is an umbrella term that combines architectures, tools, databases, applications, and methodologies

• BI’s major objective is to enable interactive access to data, to enable manipulation of data, and to give business managers and analysts the ability to conduct appropriate analysis.

• The process of BI is based on the transformation of data to information, then to decisions, and finally to actions.




History of BI


• BI architecture (Figure 1.7)– Data warehouse : (Technical staff responsibility)– Business analytics: a collection of tools for

manipulating, mining and analyzing the data in the data warehouse. (Business users realm)

– Business Performance Management (BPM): for monitoring and analyzing performance. (used by Top Managers )

– User Interface





– Data warehouse • Originally, included historical data that were

organized and summarize, so end users could easily view or manipulate data and information

• Today, some data warehouses include current data as well, so they can provide real time decision support



• Business analytics: End users can work with the data and information in a data warehouse by using a variety of tools and techniques. Those techniques fit into 3 categories:

– Reporting and queries – Advanced analytics – Data, text and Web mining and other

sophisticated mathematical and statistical tools



• Data mining

A process of searching (extracting) for unknown (hidden) relationships or information in large databases or data warehouses, using intelligent tools such as neural computing, predictive analytics techniques, or advanced statistical methods



• Business performance management (BPM)

An advanced performance measurement and analysis approach that embraces planning and strategy– BPM extends the monitoring, measuring, and

comparing of sales, profit, cost, profitability, and other performance indicators by introducing the concept of “management and feedback

– BPM provides a top-down enforcement of corporate-wide strategy



• Business performance management – User interface– Dashboard

A visual presentation of critical data for executives to view. It allows executives to see hot spots in seconds and explore the situation

– Dashboards integrate information from multiple business areas

• Visualization tools



– Styles of BI: The architecture of BI depends on its applications.

– There are five styles of BI, each style have special tool:1. Report Delivery and Alerting

2. Enterprise Reporting (dashboard, scorecard)

3. Cube Analysis (Slice and Dice Analysis)

4. Ad-hoc Query

5. Statistics and Data Mining



• Benefits of BI: The major benefit of a BI to a company is the ability to provide accurate information when needed.

• The benefits are:– Faster, more accurate reporting– Improved decision making– Improved customer service– Increased revenue



• The DSS/BI connection 1. The architecture is very similar since BI

evolved from DSS

2. DSS are constructed to directly support specific decision making; BI systems are geared to provide accurate and timely information (indirect support)

3. BI has an executive and strategy orientation while DSS has been oriented toward analysts



• The DSS-BI connection 4. BI systems are constructed with commercially

available tools and components that are fitted to the needs of organizations; DSS more programming is used to construct custom solutions to very unstructured problems

5. DSS were developed mostly in the academic world; BI were developed mostly by software companies

6. Many tools used by BI are also considered DSS tools (e.g., data mining and predictive analysis ) 582nd semester 2010 Dr. Qusai Abuein


• Management support systems (MSS)

A system that applies any type of decision support tool or technique to managerial decision-making


(1.8) A Work System View of Decision Support

• Work system

A system in which human participants and/or machines perform a business process using information, technology, and other resources to produce products and/or services for internal or external customers


(1.8) A Work System View of Decision Support

• A work system usually have nine elements, each of these elements can be varied or modified to provide better decision quality:

1. Business process

2. Participants

3. Information: better info. quality, availability or presentation

4. Technology: better data storage and retrieval, algorithms or statistical capabilities

5. Product and services

6. Customers

7. Infrastructure: more effective use of shared infrastructure

8. Environment

9. Strategy


(1.9) The Major Tools and Techniques of Managerial Decision Support

• Data management• Reporting status

tracking• Visualization• Business analytics• Strategy and

performance management

• Communication and collaboration

• Knowledge management

• Intelligent systems• Enterprise systems

Computerized Tools for Decision Support


(1.9) The Major Tools and Techniques of Managerial Decision Support • Tools-Web connection

– All of these tools are available in both web-based and non web-based formats

• Hybrid (integrated) support systems A support system that uses several tools and techniques to assist management in solving managerial or organizational problems and assess opportunities and strategies

Q) Why integrating (hybrid) several tool?– So as to improve decision support because one tool can

provide advantages where another is weak.– See Application Case 1.7 page 33.


(1.10) Implementing Computer-Based Managerial Decision Support Systems • What is to select? Developing (Building) or acquiring

(buying or renting) support systems

• Justification and cost-benefit analysis are needed to take the decision for the above.

• Security and protection of privacy are very important issues.

• Integration of MSS applications and other systems are very important.

• The Web in DSS/BI implementation is widely used

• Information portals and MSS: visualization aids serves both customers and employees.


End Of Chapter 1

Thank you

2nd semester 2010 Dr. Qusai Abuein 65

Chapter 1 DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS AND BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE 8 th Edition 12nd semester 2010 Dr. Qusai Abuein.

Documents

computerized support

decision support list

qusai abuein slide

supply chain decision

management support systems

quality of decision

decision makers

web dss