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Page 1: Chapter 1

Chapter 1

What is Financial Analysis?

Page 2: Chapter 1

Defining Financial Analysis

• Financial analysis is the process of evaluating financial and other information for decision-making.

• A six-step approach is suggested for systematic financial analysis.

Page 3: Chapter 1

Six-step Process

• Identify purpose of financial analysis• Corporate overview• Financial analysis techniques• Detailed accounting analysis• Comprehensive analysis• Decision or recommendation

Page 4: Chapter 1

Corporate Overview

• Industry analysis--key economic characteristics, historical context, profit drivers, business risks

• Firm’s business strategy--competitive strategy given the industry characteristics

Page 5: Chapter 1

Industry Analysis

• Competition--growth rates, concentration ratios, degree of product differentiation, economies of scale (& relative fixed & variable costs), substitute products

• Legal barriers--patent & copyrights, licensing, regulation

• bargaining power of buyers (& suppliers) & price sensitivity

Page 6: Chapter 1

Industry Analysis Criteria

• What is the industry?• Relative size & significance• Largest companies• Geographic presence• Business cycle effects, current situation• Future potential

Page 7: Chapter 1

Business Strategy

• Cost leadership: low cost producer, economies of scale, efficient production, low input prices

• Product differentiation: specific attributes that customers value (e.g., quality, variety, service, delivery time), brand name

• Importance of core competencies

Page 8: Chapter 1

Business Strategy Criteria

• Historical perspective• Primary focus of operations• Most important strategy• Major operating segments• Corporate outlook/ forecast

Page 9: Chapter 1

Qualitative Analysis--Dell Computer

• Industry—primarily PCs: high tech, competitive (e.g., Gateway, IBM, Apple, others), changing products, high growth rates, low barriers of entry

• Business strategy--(1) cost leadership strategy: direct selling, made-to-order manufacturing, early on the internet, low receivables; (2) product differentiation?? [IBM clones, Intel & Microsoft components]

• Current situation—market share; what is the impact of the business cycle (e.g., PCs are durable goods)?

Page 10: Chapter 1

Quantitative Financial Analysis

• Systematic analysis of key elements based on analysis context

• Ratios, cash flows, common-size, time series, comparative (e.g., specific firms, industry, all firms), models (e.g., DuPont, Altman’s)

• In-depth analysis for “red flag” items

Page 11: Chapter 1

Quantitative Financial Analysis

• Financial Statements• Common-size Analysis• Financial Ratios• Growth/trend Analysis• Quarterly analysis• DuPont Model• Market Analysis

Page 12: Chapter 1

Detailed Accounting Analysis

• Does accounting information capture the underlying business reality?

• Identify areas of “accounting flexibility” & evaluate accounting policies (choices) & disclosures; especially notes & MD&A

• Evaluate earnings management potential• Recast accounting numbers when necessary

Page 13: Chapter 1

Comprehensive Analysis

• Summarize key points: what is particularly important for decision making?

• “Red flags” are particularly important• Consider a written executive summary• Consider a rating scale, such as 1-10

Page 14: Chapter 1

Decision

• What is the recommendation or decision?• What is the key rationale for this decision?

[This is based on the specific decision: for a credit decision the key factors relate to credit risk, with particular focus on leverage and liquidity.]

• Be prepared to defend this decision.

Page 15: Chapter 1

Chapter 2

The Financial Environment

Page 16: Chapter 1

Capital Markets

Equity Debt

Primary Initial public offering

Bank loan, initial debt security offering

Secondary Buying & selling of stocks on securities markets

Buying & selling on secondary debt market

Page 17: Chapter 1

Credit Decisions

• Commercial banks provide short-term commercial loans

• The major concern: will the company pay interest & principal when due?

• Loan terms: interest rate, collateral, debt covenants

Page 18: Chapter 1

Equity Investment Decisions

• Public securities trade on formal market exchanges (these are secondary markets)

• Buying & selling are now relatively cheap transactions

• Mutual funds are a useful alternatives to individual securities

• Stock investing has high short-term risks

Page 19: Chapter 1

SEC Regulation

• Mission: Protect investors & maintain integrity of the securities markets

• Established following the Great Market Crash (SEC Act of 1934)

• SEC requires public registration, proxy statements & annual (10-K) and quarterly (10-Q) reports, 8-K for specific events

• Update: Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 & Public Company Accounting Oversight Board

Page 20: Chapter 1

Goals of Financial Accounting in a Market Economy?

• Capture business economics of the firm (e.g., relationship to industry, competitive strategy, business model). How does firm create value?

• Reduce management discretion on financial reporting (what is reality? Vs. misleading information--analysts sort this out). Note management incentives for earnings management

Page 21: Chapter 1

Accounting Regulators

• Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC)--regulates securities markets and financial reporting (10-K, 10-Q, 8-K)

• Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB)--promulgates GAAP

• International Accounting Standards Board (IASB)—issuing International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS)

Page 22: Chapter 1

U.S. Standard Setters: 1938-Present

• Committee on Accounting Procedures (CAP) issued 51 Accounting Research Bulletins (ARBs)--1938-59

• Accounting Principles Board (APB) issued 31 Opinions--1959-73

• Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) has issued 168 Statements through 2008 (SFASs) plus other standards—now Standards Codification

Page 23: Chapter 1

The FASB Structure

F A S A C

P ro no u nce m e n ts

D u e P ro c e ss

F A S B

P ro no u nce m e n ts

D u e P ro ce ss

G A S B G A S A C

F A F

S p o ns o rin g O rg an iza tio ns

Page 24: Chapter 1

The FASB

• Seven member board, full time, appointed by FAF, presumed independent

• Extensive due process: agenda items, discussion memoranda (DM), exposure drafts (ED), pronouncements, public exposure with written & oral comments

• Super-majority (5-2 vote) [simple majority used 1977-90]

• Standard setting a political process

Page 25: Chapter 1

Annual Report Information

• Corporate Overview• MD&A• Financial Statements: Balance Sheet,

Income Statement, Statement of Cash Flows, Statement of Equity

• Notes to financial statements• Auditor’s Opinion

Page 26: Chapter 1

Management Incentives

• Managers have incentives to present information in the most favorable light (e.g., bonuses, stock options, promotions)

• Accounting choice: accounting polities, estimates, additional disclosures

• Standardize vs. estimates: what is reality?• Management have best information, but

communications to investors may not be completely credible

Page 27: Chapter 1

Financial Statement Considerations

• Managers’ information on economic reality• Estimation errors• Distortion from managers’ accounting

choices & disclosure • Question: Can investor perceptions be

manipulated?

Page 28: Chapter 1

Finance Theory Perspectives

• Efficient Markets• Random Walk• Portfolio Theory• Beta Analysis• Economic Behavior & Agency Theory• Earnings Management & Accounting

Choice

Page 29: Chapter 1

Efficient Markets

• Markets are efficient if information is impounded immediately in capital prices in an unbiased fashion

• Research supports market efficiency in the semi-strong form, for short windows

• Why?—Analyst following • Note long-term anomalies & other challenges

(e.g., behavioral economics)

Page 30: Chapter 1

Random Walk

• The concept that a professional portfolio cannot outperform a randomly selected stock portfolio

• Research generally confirms this result• Consistent with efficient markets; that is, all

information has been impounded in stock price

Page 31: Chapter 1

Portfolio Theory

• Harry Markowitz introduced the concept of portfolio diversification with his 1952 dissertation

• Portfolio theory insists that investment portfolios should be diversified to reduce the risk relative to return

• Capital asset pricing model: E(Ri) = Rf + [E(Rm) – Rf)

Page 32: Chapter 1

Beta Analysis

• Beta () comes directly from the slope of the market model: Rit = i + iRmt + eit

• Beta measures the relationship between price movements of the individual stock to market averages

• Beta is a measure of systematic risk, where a =1 stock should move with the market; a >1 stock has greater market risk

Page 33: Chapter 1

Economic Behavior

• Rationality: assume bounded rationality—people are intendedly rationale but limited

• Self-interest behavior:Obedience Simple self interest Opportunism (self interest with guile-- that is, willing to violate normal ethical boundaries for personal benefit)

Page 34: Chapter 1

Agency Theory

• Contracts have a principal (e.g., owners) and agent (e.g., managers). The principal will attempt to maximize wealth, contract to avoid conflict, and minimize transaction and agency costs.

• Agency costs: information asymmetries (limited information by one side), adverse selection, moral hazard (e.g., shirking).

Page 35: Chapter 1

How to Reduce Agency Costs

• Better acquisition decisions• Monitoring--including audits and financial

reporting• Align preferences of agents with principals

(e.g., debt covenants, management compensation)--a reason for stock options

• Control devises such as budgets

Page 36: Chapter 1

Earnings Management

• Operations and discretionary accounting methods to adjust earnings to a desired outcome, often income smoothing

• Underlying theory: agency theory, transaction cost economics

• Importance of efficient contracting: corporations are a network of contracts and exist because they write contracts efficiently

Page 37: Chapter 1

Accounting Choice

• Discretionary choices to optimize behavior, using techniques such as: 1. Select alternative accounting methods (e.g., inventory) & level of disclosure (e.g., contingencies) 2. Lobbying (e.g., on proposed standards) 3. Financial, production & investment activities

Page 38: Chapter 1

Discretion Under GAAP

• Taking a bath• Creating hidden reserves• Off-balance-sheet financing• Overstating performance (e.g., aggressive

revenue recognition)• Not reporting obligations (contingencies,

commitments, other liabilities)

Page 39: Chapter 1

Earnings Manipulation

• Because alternatives are allowed, financial accounting has many discretionary aspects.

• Managers can manipulate income by timing (e.g., recognition this year v next year) and classification (e.g., ordinary v extraordinary)

• Accruals can be mandatory (e.g., other post employment benefits) or voluntary (e.g., depreciation)

Page 40: Chapter 1

Earnings Quality

• Importance of full disclosure• Look for “conservative” reporting• Review indicators of high quality• Relationship of risk to earnings quality• Be aware of earnings management

incentives and evidence of earnings manipulation

Page 41: Chapter 1

Normalizing Income

• Attempt to determine earning power--related to normal operating earnings

• Remove the “noise”--usually associated with nonrecurring items

• Separate analysis of nonrecurring items--reorganization, “big bath” write-offs, changing GAAP

• Evidence of earnings manipulation may require substantial adjustments to arrive at “normal earnings”

Page 42: Chapter 1

Financial Analysis Decision

• Based on Elliott’s “value chain of information”: this is the $1,000 per hour stage

• The purpose of financial analysis is to arrive at an informed recommendation or decision

Page 43: Chapter 1

Chapter 3

The Financial Statements

Page 44: Chapter 1

Financial Statements

• Balance Sheet• Income Statement• Statement of Cash Flows• Statement of Stockholders’ Equity

Page 45: Chapter 1

Balance Sheet

• Assets: probable future economic benefits• Liabilities: probable future economic

sacrifices• Stockholders’ Equity: residual interest,

representing ownership interest (also called net assets)

Page 46: Chapter 1

Assets

• Current Assets (cash & cash equivalents, short-term marketable securities), accounts receivable, inventory, other)

• Property, plant & equipment• Long-term investments• Other assets

Page 47: Chapter 1

Liabilities

• Current Liabilities (accounts payable, accrued & other current liabilities)

• Long-term debt• Commitments & contingencies• Other liabilities• Potential off-balance sheet debt

Page 48: Chapter 1

Stockholders’ Equity

• Preferred stock• Common stock• Other paid-in capital• Retained earnings• Treasury stock• Other comprehensive income• Other equity items

Page 49: Chapter 1

Income Statement

• Revenues: inflows from major operations• Expenses: outflows from major operations• Gains & Losses: changes in equity from

peripheral activities• Net income: bottom line all operating

activities recorded on the income statement• Comprehensive income: Changes in equity

from all non-owner sources

Page 50: Chapter 1

Revenue

• Sales• Services• Other revenue items• Importance of revenue recognition criteria

Page 51: Chapter 1

Operating Expenses

• Cost of goods sold (manufacturing)• Cost of sales (services or services included)• Operating expenses (selling, general &

administrative, research & development, other)

• Interest income & expenses & related• Provision for tax

Page 52: Chapter 1

Non-recurring Items

• Extraordinary items• Discontinued operations• Accounting changes• Other non-recurring items• Other gains & losses

Page 53: Chapter 1

Earnings Measures

• Gross profit• Operating income• Income before tax• Income from continuing operations• Net income• Comprehensive income

Page 54: Chapter 1

Cash Flow Statement

• Cash Flows from Operations• Cash Flows from Investing Activities• Cash Flows from Financial Activities• Statement of Stockholders’ Equity

Page 55: Chapter 1

Cash From Operations

• Net income• Depreciation & amortization• Other operating adjustments• Changes in non-cash working capital items

Page 56: Chapter 1

Cash From Investing & Financing

• Cash from investingInvestment purchases

Investment maturities & salesCapital expenditures

• Cash from financingIssuance of equityPurchase/acquisition of equityNew debt

Debt maturities or retirement

Page 57: Chapter 1

Statement of Stockholders’ Equity

• Reconciliation of stockholders’ equity, alternative formats used

• Key categories (changes)Common stock, other paid-in

capital Retained earningsTreasury stock

Other comprehensive income

Page 58: Chapter 1

Chapter 4

Quantitative Financial Analysis Using Financial Statement

Information

Page 59: Chapter 1

Quantitative Financial Analysis

• Systematic analysis of key elements based on analysis context

• Quantitative techniques to standardize financial information for relevant comparisons

• In-depth analysis for key factors, including “red flags”

Page 60: Chapter 1

Quantitative Financial Analysis

• Financial Statements• Common-size Analysis• Financial Ratios• Growth Analysis• Du Pont Model• Earnings Quality/Normalizing Earnings

Page 61: Chapter 1

Useful Financial Comparisons

• Benchmarks: rules of thumb or averages• Common Sense• Trend Analysis (analysis over time)• Near Competitors• Industry Averages• Market Averages

Page 62: Chapter 1

Common-size Analysis

• Overview vs. detail• Balance sheet: total assets = 100%• Income Statement: sales (or total revenues)

= 100%• Comparisons over time & across firms (or

industry averages)• Useful starting point for financial overview

Page 63: Chapter 1

Ratio Analysis

• A ratio converts financial information to a percentage, one approach to standardization

• Each ratios provides a somewhat different analysis• Ratios overlap—a problem in one area should

show up as problems in other areas• The importance of specific ratios differs, based on

the purpose of the financial analysis• Ratios for the most recent period are usually the

most important

Page 64: Chapter 1

Ratio Categories

• Liquidity—cash, working capital & cash flow related

• Activity—turnover ratios as possible efficiency measures

• Leverage—debt & solvency analysis• Performance (or profitability)—bottom line

or earnings related

Page 65: Chapter 1

Liquidity Ratios

• Current ratio: current assets/current liabilities

• Quick (acid test) ratio: (cash+marketable securities+net receivables)/current liabilities

• Cash ratio: (cash+marketable securities)/current liabilities

• Operating ratio: cash flows from operations/current liabilities

Page 66: Chapter 1

Leverage Ratios• Debt to equity ratio: total liabilities/total stockholders’

equity• Debt ratio: total liabilities/total assets• Interest coverage: (income before tax +interest

expense)/interest expense [note that the numerator is earnings before interest and taxes or EBIT]*

• Long-term debt to equity: long-term liabilities/total stockholders’ equity

• Debt to market equity: total liabilities at book value/total equity at market value *alternatively: (income from continuing operations + interest expense + tax expense)/interest expense

Page 67: Chapter 1

Activity Ratios• Inventory turnover: cost of sales [or

COGS]/average inventory• Receivables turnover: sales/average accounts

receivable• Payables turnover: sales/average accounts payable• Working capital turnover: sales/average working

capital• Fixed asset turnover: sales/average property, plant

& equipment• Total asset turnover: sales/average total assets

Page 68: Chapter 1

Activity Ratios in Days

• Average days inventory in stock: 365/inventory turnover

• Average days receivables outstanding: 365/receivables turnover

• Average days payable outstanding: 365/payables turnover

• Length of operating cycle: average days inventory + average days receivables

Page 69: Chapter 1

Profitability

• Gross margin: (Sales-COGS)/sales• Return on sales: net income/sales• Return on assets: net income/average total assets• Pretax return on assets: earnings before interest &

taxes/average total assets• Return on total equity: net income/average

stockholders’ equity• Dividend payout: common dividends/net income

[per share basis: dividends per share / EPS]

Page 70: Chapter 1

Du Pont Model

• ROE = Profitability x Activity x Solvency• Net Income / Average Common Equity =

(Net Income / Sales) x (Sales / Average Total Assets) x (Average Total Assets / Average Common Equity)

• ROA = Profitability x Activity

Page 71: Chapter 1

Decomposition using Du Pont• Start with Return on Sales• Activity is avg. total asset ratio—this is a measure of asset

turnover or efficiency• ROS x ATAR is Return on Assets (calculate as net income

/ average total assets)• Solvency is ATA / Avgas. Common Equity—this is a

standard leverage ratio• ROA x Solvency is Return on Equity (calculate as net

income / average common equity)• In summary, the differences between ROS, ROA & ROE

depend on activity & solvency

Page 72: Chapter 1

Du Pont Model

RatioProfit (Return on Sales)Activity (Asset

Turnover)Return on AssetsSolvency (Common

Equity Leverage)Return on Equity

CalculationNet Income/SalesSales/Avg. Total Assets

(ATA)Net Income/ATAATA/Average Common

Equity (ACE) Net Income/ ACE

Page 73: Chapter 1

Ratio Analysis Limitations

• Ratios are presented on a percentage basis• Relative size is ignored (e.g., both large &

small firms can be compared)• It is assumed that all numbers used are

correct (consider both possible errors and earnings management)

• If the numbers are not reliable, ratios are not particularly useful

Page 74: Chapter 1

Rating the PC Companies

Dell Gateway Apple

Liquidity 4 5 8

Activity 9 6 8

Leverage 6 6 8

Perform. 6 1 RF 2 RF

Du Pont 6 1 RF 2 RF

Overall 6 2 RF 4

Page 75: Chapter 1

Chapter 5

Multiperiod Quantitative Financial Analysis

Page 76: Chapter 1

Growth Analysis (period-by-period change)

• Long-term trends over time can be significant. Are current year performance measures consistent with earlier years (e.g., maintaining consistent ratios while sales are rising smoothly)?

• As a first step, present growth rates (including % increases) for the last 5-10 years

• Declining or negative growth rates might be obvious red flags; Red flags and other indicators of poor growth performance require further analysis

Page 77: Chapter 1

Base-Year Analysis(also called Trend Analysis)

• Set the earliest year, evaluated as the base year, at 100. [Note: this assumes that earliest year is “normal.”] Calculate growth by dividing the more current year numbers by the base year number.

• This is an alternative presentation to growth rate percentages over 5-10 years (or more)

Page 78: Chapter 1

Quarterly Analysis

• The most recent financial data is presented quarterly (e.g., 10-Q). [The one exception is at year end, with annual information is presented]

• Financial analysts focus on quarterly data and the quarterly earnings announcement is the most important (& earliest) information

• Common-size and ratios analysis is conducted, and compared over earlier quarters: particularly important are current quarter data to (1) the previous quarter and (2) the same quarter one year ago

Page 79: Chapter 1

Chapter 6

Quantitative Financial Analysis Techniques: Incorporating Market

Information

Page 80: Chapter 1

Quantitative Market Analysis

• Stock prices & stock charts• Earnings per share—actual & forecast• Price earnings ratios (PE)• Dividend yield• Market value & market-to-book• Price earnings to growth ratios (PEG)• Valuation models

Page 81: Chapter 1

Stock Prices

• Prices change continuously• Using daily closing price• Stock charts, various periods• Industry & market comparisons• Internet sites

Page 82: Chapter 1

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

• Performance measure on per share basis• Basic vs. diluted• Forecasted EPS (Analysts’ Estimates on

Yahoo)• Annual vs. quarterly EPS• Annual—last 4 quarters• 5 year forecasts (relevance vs. reliability)

Page 83: Chapter 1

PE Ratios

• Stock price as a market premium for earnings

• Which price? (most current, historic…)• Which EPS? (current year actual--usually

last 4 quarters, future forecast, basic vs. diluted)

• Closing prices• Alternatives & how to evaluate them

Page 84: Chapter 1

Market-based Ratios

• Price earnings ratio (PE): Stock price / EPS• Dividend Yield: Dividend per share / Stock

price• Market value: stock price x shares

outstanding• Market-to-book: market value /

stockholders’ equity

Page 85: Chapter 1

Dividends

• Dividends given on a per share basis; focus on dividends per share, last 4 quarters. [Note—equivalent to dividends/shares outstanding.]

• Dividend yield: dividends per share/stock price—income focus; average yield is about 2% for the S&P 500.

• Dividend payout: dividends per share/earnings per share.

Page 86: Chapter 1

Market-related Ratios

• Market-to-book: market value / stockholders’ equity [or measure on a per share basis—stock price / book value per share]—why is a “market premium to book” common?

• Sales to market value: annual sales to outstanding shares x (1) year-end closing market price or (2) most recent closing market price.

Page 87: Chapter 1

Price Earnings to Growth (PEG)

• High PE is usually associated with the expectation of high earnings growth, which can be evaluated with PEG

• “Historic PEG” = PE based on actual EPS / 5-year historic earnings growth

• “Forecast PEG” = PE based on forecast EPS / 5-year earnings forecast

• PEG is useful to evaluate growth stocks, less useful for income stocks

Page 88: Chapter 1

Earnings-based Growth Model

• P = kE / (r – g) where P is “expected” stock price, k is dividend payout rate (actual or predicted), E is EPS, r is the discount rate, and g the projected earnings growth rate

• This model requires dividends, the discount rate is arbitrary (it could be the actual cost of capital—or based something else), and the growth rate is a forecast; results can change substantially using different assumptions

Page 89: Chapter 1

Stock Screening

• The purpose of stock screening is the determine which firms meet specific criteria (such as minimum ROE or dividend yield)

• Several internet sites have stock screeners, such as Yahoo

• The technique is useful to limit the number of companies on which to conduct a complete financial analysis

Page 90: Chapter 1

Chapter 11

Capital Structure & Credit Risk

Page 91: Chapter 1

Corporate Liabilities

• Accounts Payable• Commercial Paper & other short-term

market liabilities• Other current liabilities• Corporate Bonds• Other long-term market debt• Other liabilities

Page 92: Chapter 1

Credit Risk

• Credit risk: probability that a corporation will either default on debt or declare bankruptcy.Default risk: probability that a corporation will not pay interest & principal when they come due Bankruptcy risk: probability that a corporation will file for bankruptcy

Page 93: Chapter 1

Default Risk

• What is the chance (probability) that the corporation will fail to make interest or principal payments when due?

• Because of high collection costs, creditors evaluate credit risk carefully

• Failure events: restructurings, especially troubled debt restructuring; default; bond rating down-grading; going-concern qualifications; bankruptcy

Page 94: Chapter 1

Bankruptcy Risk

• Probability that a firm will file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy.

• Importance of failure events: losses, defaults, troubled debt restructuring, going concern qualified audit opinion

• Altman’s Z-score can be used as a prediction model for credit risk

Page 95: Chapter 1

Financial Leverage• Financial leverage is the relative mix of debt (especially long-

term debt) & equity• Long-term debt increases credit risk & has interest charges• The financial leverage index (FLI) is ROE/ROA• A high FLI indicates the increasing use of leverage to raise

ROE relative to ROA• The financial structure leverage ratio (FSLR) is average total

assets/average common equity. This is the same ratio used in the DuPont Model for solvency. A higher ratio means higher leverage, but also a higher ROE. The ratio is identical to FL1 if there is no preferred stock. When preferred stock is present, the FSLR is higher than FLI.

Page 96: Chapter 1

Altman’s Z-score, 1983 Model

• 6.56 x (working capital / total assets)

• + 3.26 x (retained earnings / total assets)• + 6.72 x (EBIT / total assets)• + 1.05 x (book value of equity / book value

of debt)• = Altman’s Z-score

Page 97: Chapter 1

Altman’s Z-score

• Indicator of overall financial health• Cutoffs: les than 1.1 bankrupt

1.1 – 2.6 gray areagreater than 2.6 healthy

• A Z-score of 1.1 or less does not mean the company is bankrupt, but does suggest that financial problems may exist

Page 98: Chapter 1

Bond Ratings

• Bond rating agencies include Standard & Poor’s & Moody’s

• Corporations are expected to have investment grade ratings, Baa and above (for Moody’s)

• Bond ratings below investment grade are junk bonds, which is usually recognized as a red flag

Page 99: Chapter 1

Bond Ratings

S & P Moody’s CategoryHighest AAA Aaa Investment Very High AA Aa Investment High Qual. A A Investment High Qual. BBB Baa Investment Speculative BB Ba BelowSpeculative B B BelowSpeculative CCC Caa BelowSpeculative D C Below

Page 100: Chapter 1

Chapter 12

Credit Analysis

Page 101: Chapter 1

Credit Analysis Process

• Loan Purpose• Corporate Overview• Financial Analysis • Accounting Analysis• Comprehensive Analysis• Loan Decision

Page 102: Chapter 1

Loan Purpose

• Commercial Bank Loan: term loan

revolving line of creditother

• Commercial Paper• Corporate Bonds

Page 103: Chapter 1

Corporate Overview

• Wide variety of firms need bank loans• Size characteristics—local or regional to

national & global• Industry specializations, including impact

on bank credit risk• Large companies have more credit options

Page 104: Chapter 1

Quantitative Financial Analysis

• Primary focus is on financial report analysis, with less emphasis on market information

• Particular interest in liquidity & leverage• Evidence of financial health (as measured

by credit risk) rather than earnings performance & forecasts

Page 105: Chapter 1

Accounting Analysis

• Emphasis on liquidity & cash flow information

• Analysis of unrecorded obligations & potential overstated assets

• Forecasts of sales & operations plus future cash flows

Page 106: Chapter 1

Comprehensive Analysis

• Summary of key information (executive summary recommended)

• Importance of credit risk• Adequate information to make informed

recommendations/decisions

Page 107: Chapter 1

Loan Decisions

• Yes/ No on loan• What interest rate (prime rate +)?• What collateral?• What Debt covenants?• Other considerations (e.g., compensating

balances)

Page 108: Chapter 1

Chapter 13

Equity Investment Analysis

Page 109: Chapter 1

Investment Portfolio

• Importance of Portfolio Diversification• Based on Investor Goals• Short-term, liquidity focus• Mid-term, return but limited risk focus• Long-term, return focus

Page 110: Chapter 1

Mutual Funds

• Investment portfolios managed by professionals & regulated by the SEC

• Advantages: diversification, professional management, liquidity, small investment

• Disadvantages: Fees, average returns less than expected, lack of control over investments, taxes

Page 111: Chapter 1

Mutual Fund Categories

• Money Market Funds• Bond• Stock: growth, income, value, asset

allocation, international, sector, regional • Balanced • Real estate, usually REITs

Page 112: Chapter 1

Gotrocks Funds• Growth Fund: maximize long-term market appreciation

using large-cap stocks (focus on earnings & earnings growth potential)

• Income Fund: maximize intermediate- & long-term income using bonds and large-cap stock that pay high dividends (+ total return as a secondary goal)

• Value Fund: invest in large-cap stocks that out of favor—requires evidence of substantial stock price drop & ongoing restructuring (usually low market-to-book)

Page 113: Chapter 1

Investment Strategies

• Buy & hold• Index funds• Dollar-cost averaging• Risk measures, such as Beta analysis• Asset allocation decisions; e.g., % of cash,

bonds & stocks

Page 114: Chapter 1

Six-step Analysis

• Investment purpose• Corporate overview• Quantitative financial & market analysis• Detailed accounting analysis• Comprehensive analysis• Recommendation or decision

Page 115: Chapter 1

Investment Purpose

• Short-term (stressing liquidity & low risk)• Long-term (e.g., retirement—stressing long-

term return, willing to accept more risk)• Using market averages such as the Dow Jones

Industrial Average• Utilities may fit income funds because of high

dividend yields• High tech firms may fit growth funds

Page 116: Chapter 1

Decisions

• Decisions: buy, sell, hold (& how much?)• Different important characteristics based on

investment goals: Income Investment: importance of dividend yield Growth fund: importance of profit & earnings growth forecast Values funds: importance of “bargain price”