Changing Transitions to Adulthood in Developing Countries Highlights from NRC/IOM Panel Report Cynthia Lloyd, Chair and Editor Woodrow Wilson International.

Changing Transitions to Adulthood in

Developing Countries

Highlights from NRC/IOM Panel Report

Cynthia Lloyd, Chair and Editor Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars

June 9, 2005

Outline

• Framework and context

• Preparation for adult roles: schooling and health

• Transitions to adult roles: work, citizenship, marriage, parenthood

• Policy and program implications

Rapid Global

Change

Changing National Context

Changing Local

CommunityContext

Changes in Individual

Resources/Attributes

duringTransition

Changes in the

Transition to Adulthood

Conceptual framework

Source: NRC/IOM (2005)

Rapid Global

Change

1980

2005

2030

Africa

Asia

Latin America/Caribbean

1.1 billion

1.5 billion

1.7 billionSource: NRC/IOM 2005

Demographic profile of young people (10-24) in developing countries

Population of young people (ages 10-24)as percent of 1980 level

50%

150%

250%

350%

450%

550%

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Congo (Dem Rep)

Pakistan

Nigeria

Egypt

India

Brazil

Mexico

China

Source: UN estimates and projections [http://esa.un.org/unpp/index.asp]

What do young people need to achieve successful transitions?

• Good health, including knowledge and means to sustain health

• An appropriate stock of human and social capital to become a productive adult

• Prosocial values and the ability to contribute to the collective well-being

• Adequate preparation for the assumption of adult social roles and obligations

• The capability to make choices


Outline





Schooling

• Growth in school attendance and grade attainment has been unprecedented

• Gender gap, where it still exists, is closing rapidly

• Young people spend more of their adolescence in school

• Large differentials in school attendance by wealth and residence persist

0

25

50

75

100

40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14

0

25

50

75

100

40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14

0

25

50

75

100

40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14

Age Age

Cameroon (1998)

Age

Ethiopia (1999)

Age

Bangladesh (1999-00)India (1998-00)

Ghana (1998-99)

Age

Pakistan (2001-02)

Age

Percent ever attended school, 6 countries

0

25

50

75

100

40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14

0

25

50

75

100

40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14

0

25

50

75

100

40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14

Boys Girls

Source: DHS and AYP data

School attendance,15-19 year olds, by socio-economic status

(weighted averages)

3828

6759

0

20

40

60

80

100

Boys Girls

Per

cen

t cu

rren

tly

enro

lled Lowest 40% Highest 20%

Data source: Demographic and Health Surveys 1990-2001, 48 countries

• Comparative data from standardized test scores raise serious concerns

• Poor school quality compromises attendance and retention

Student test scores by country2000-2001 (aged 15)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Reading Math

Japan

USA

Thailand

Mexico

Argentina

Chile

Brazil

Indonesia

Peru

Source: OECD and UNESCO Institute of Statistics (2003)

Health and reproductive health

• Health improving overall, except in areas hard hit by HIV

• In most regions, higher prevalence of HIV among girls than boys

• For young women, maternal mortality/morbidity still among most significant risks

• Young men disproportionately affected by accidents, violence, war, and suicide

• Mental health problems — a substantial, and possibly increasing, share of illness

Health behaviors

• Students are less likely to have had sex than non-students

• Students are more likely, if sexually active, to use contraception than non-students

• Condom use is very low but increasing; contraceptive use is rising among sexually active young women

• Smoking rates are high; use of illicit drugs and alcohol is likely to be rising

Percent ever having had sex, ages 15-17, by enrollment status

0

20

40

60

80

100

Brazil Peru Kenya Tanzania Ghana Coted'Ivoire

Per

cen

t

Students Non-Students

Source: NRC/IOM 2005

Outline





Transitions to work

• Delays in school exit have led to later labor force entry, declines in child labor

• Rise in schooling has led to a greater equalization of work burdens by sex

• Poverty is the main cause of child labor

• Increased numbers of young people have entered the labor market without any large relative increases in unemployment rates

• Young women are increasingly likely to engage in paid employment

• More educated workers have higher earnings, greater job stability and mobility

Female employment rate, Brazil 1977 and 2001 (ages 10-25)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

10 15 20 25

Per

cen

t w

ork

ing

2001 1977

AgeSource: NRC/IOM 2005

Transitions to citizenship

• Successful transitions to citizenship are important to development

• Young men are more likely than young women to be active politically

• Young people are more likely than older people to participate in community organizations

• Young people have greater trust in religious institutions and the press than public institutions

Livelihoods Program in Ghana

• A variety of institutions and programs can be important to citizenship formation

Transitions to marriage

• A smaller proportion of young people are married than previously

• Declines in early marriage (before 18) are widespread. Nonetheless, prevalence of child marriage remains significant in some regions

• Large differentials in age of marriage by education, wealth, and residence persist

• Typically, there is a distinct gap between the age of school leaving and marriage

Trends in percent of women married by age 18

0 20 40 60 80 100

South America

Caribbean/CentralAmerica

Middle East

Eastern/SouthernAfrica

Western/MiddleAfrica

South-Central/Southeastern Asia

20-24year olds 40-44 year olds

Data source: Demographic and Health Surveys, 1990-2001.

Vietnam, 1999

0%

50%

100%

10 15 20 25 30

Age

Mexico, 2000

0%

50%

100%

10 15 20 25 30

Age

School and marriage status, females, by single years of age


Left school

MarriedKenya, 1999

0%

50%

100%

10 15 20 25 30

Age

Brazil, 1999

0%

50%

100%

10 15 20 25 30

Age

Transitions to parenthood

• Young men become parents later than young women, allowing more time to prepare

• Age of first parenthood is rising; the pace of change is highly variable

• 90% of births occur within marriage; no change in 20 years

• Mean length of first birth interval is declining everywhere

• Patterns of premarital childbearing vary substantially by region

Outline





Policy and program implications

• Target policies and programs to the poor, especially poor girls

• Invest in significant improvements in primary school quality, building a base for secondary school expansion

• Promote gender equity in the arenas of citizenship, work, marriage, and parenthood for all social classes

• Encourage active collaboration between health and education sectors in designing multi-pronged reproductive health programs

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%-100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0%

Trends in Grade Attainment (Percent Completed 6 or More Years)

Girls Boys

40-44 yrs old 20-24 yrs old

Africa

LatinAmerica

Asia

100 80 60 40 20 20 40 60 80 100


Percent Currently Enrolled (15 year olds)

Boys Girls

Africa

Asia

LatinAmerica

20 40 60 80 100

Source: DHS

0

25

50

75

100

40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14

0

25

50

75

100

40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14

0

25

50

75

100

40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14

Age Age

Cameroon (1998)

Age

Ethiopia (1999)

Age


Ghana (1998-99)

Age

Pakistan (2001-02)

Age

Percent completed 6+ years, 6 countries

0

25

50

75

100

40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14

0

25

50

75

100

40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14

0

25

50

75

100

40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14

Boys Girls


0

25

50

75

100

40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14

0

25

50

75

100

40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14

0

25

50

75

100

40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14

Age Age

Cameroon (1998)

Age

Ethiopia (1999)

Age


Ghana (1998-99)

Age

Pakistan (2001-02)

Age

Combined data - 6 countries

0

25

50

75

100

40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14

0

25

50

75

100

40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14

0

25

50

75

100

40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14

Boys Girls


4654 56 57 58 58 58

2633

4045 48 50 53

0

20

40

60

80

100

40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14

Age Range

Per

cen

t

Boys Girls

Trends in percent completing primary school, 24 African countries

late 1960s early 1970s late 1970s early 1980s late 1980s early 1990s late 1990s

Author estimates)(Source: Hewett and Lloyd (2005)

Media access, 15–19 year olds

0

20

40

60

80

100

West/MiddleAfrica

South/EasternAfrica

Carib/CentralAmerica

SouthAmerica

Female

Male

Householdownership oftelevision

Watch televisionat least once/week:

Source: DHS, all women surveys

Per

cen

t

Percent Distribution of Countries by Type of Change: A Comparison of 20-24 Year

Olds to 40-44 Year Olds

IncreaseNo

Change Decrease

Marrying by 18 2.4 22.0 75.6

Having Premarital Sex by 18 58.5 39.0 2.4

Having Sex by 18 22.0 46.3 31.7

Note: Based on 41 DHS countries

Ratio of Proportion of Unmarried Women Aged 15-17 Who Ever Had Sex Among Those Not Currently Enrolled vs. Enrolled,

by Overall Proportion in School

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

Guatemala

Zimbabwe

Bolivia

Note: Age standardizedSource: DHS Surveys, 1995-2001

Pr o

po

r tio

n w

ho

ev

er

ha

d s

ex

Ag

ed

15

- 17

(N

ot

i n s

c ho

ol /I

n

sch

oo

l)

Proportion in schoolLatin America Africa

Trends in Percent of Women Who Marry and

Have a First Birth Before Age 18

0

20

40

60

80

100

Source: NRC/IOM 2005

Per

cen

t

SouthAmerica

Carib/CentAmerica

FormerSoviet

East/SouthAfrica

West/Middle Africa

SC/SEAsia

MiddleEast

40-44 year olds

20-24 year olds

MarryBirth

Changing Transitions to Adulthood in Developing Countries Highlights from NRC/IOM Panel Report Cynthia Lloyd, Chair and Editor Woodrow Wilson International.

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