Page 1
19701972
19741976
19781980
19821984
19861988
19901992
19941996
19982000
20022004
20062008
20100
20
40
60
80
100
120Percentage change in standardised UK mortality rates (age 0-64) normalised to 100% in 1970
circulatoryischaemic heartcerebrovascularneoplasmsrespiratoryendocrine / metabolicdiabetes
Years
%
Data from WHO-HFA database downloaded Oct 2013
Page 2
19701972
19741976
19781980
19821984
19861988
19901992
19941996
19982000
20022004
20062008
20100
100
200
300
400
500
600Percentage change in standardised UK mortality rates (age 0-64) normalised to 100% in 1970
circulatoryischaemic heartcerebrovascularneoplasmsrespiratoryliverendocrine / metabolicdiabetes
Years
%
Data from WHO-HFA database downloaded Oct 2013
Page 3
Sheron, Gilmore BMJ 2015 in press
Liver mortality Directly attributable alcohol mortality
Page 4
Williams et al Lancet 2015
050
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Trends in mortality from alcohol related liver disease in England and Wales , con-sumption of spirits, wine, beer and cider, and changes in duty
Alcohol related liver deaths E&W %
White spirits consumption %
Whisky con-sumption %
Cider consumption %
Wine consumption %
Total lager / beer consumption al-cohol %
Packaged strong lager %
% c
hang
e sin
ce 1
980
Page 6
Dr Foster data, in-hospital mortality all E &W acute trusts
Page 7
Nick Sheron, unpublished analysis
Survival of admissions to the Liver Unit Southampton
1/3
1/3
1/3
Page 8
76%
P<0.001
Prior liver outpatient referrals in 5,112 Southampton first admissions with cirrhosis
Nick Sheron unpublished analysis
¾ of people who will die of cirrhosis have no idea they are ill
Page 9
Population Hepatology
Page 12
Liver cell
Liver Enzymes
eg ALT, AST, ALP, GGT
Page 13
Necrosis = cell swells, membrane leaks,enzymes escape
Liver enzymes are raised in blood
Viral hepatitis
Autoimmune hepatitis
Page 14
necrosis apoptosis
Cell shrinks with membrane intact
Page 15
necrosis apoptosis
Liver enzymes normalAlcoholObesity
Page 16
Scarring or fibrosis
Page 17
The current system for treating liver disease doesn’t work
Because it picks up people too late
Page 18
The Southampton Liver Traffic Light Test
4,343 subjects followed for 12 years
Page 19
30% reduced drinking to safe levels
65% reduced drinking to safe levels
Traffic light test given to 400 heavy drinkers in primary care
follow up data at one year
Page 20
The POLeMIC program Prevention
OfLiver MortalityIn Communities
Confidential Unpublished Data
Page 21
Emma Greatorex, Katie Minards, David Cable, Alan Hales
Biochemistry data
Haematology data
Endoscopy data
PAS data
Pathology data
Hampshire Health Record data
Page 22
Acknowledgments:
POLeMMICColin NewellMagdy El-GohariEmily StimpsonJo DashTina ReinsonJackie HollisLucy GrunerMaria BaggotNatalie StantonWendy O’BrienAndrea JarmanMike MoorePaul RoderickJulia SinclairMiranda KimMaheswaran NaranjanTopher Woelk
Data:HHRIGGNHS SCW CSU
Funding:
British Liver TrustNIHR BRC