Changing Residentail Patterns 1991 - 2001

Changing Residentail Patterns 1991 - 2001

Dan Vickers,

Department of Geography, University of Sheffield

UPTAP Conference 21 -23 March 2007

http://www.shef.ac.uk/

http://www.esrc.ac.uk/

Changing Residential Patterns 1991 - 2001 Background

Project scheduled to run 1st January 2006 – 31st December 2006, in the School of Geography, University of Leeds.

PhD handed in Friday 13th January 2006.

Viva started a year ago to this minute across the corridor.

1st September 2006 Appointed ‘Lecturer in Social and Spatial Inequalities’ in the Department of Geography, University of Sheffield.

Therefore only able to complete 8 out of the scheduled 12 months of the project.

Rearranged schedule to complete the research one day a week, to be completed by the 1st September 2007.

Changing Residential Patterns 1991 - 2001 Research

Original idea: To attempt to examine the change in residential patterns over time using geodemographic techniques.

Why So?My PhD created the national classification of output areas for the ONS http://www.statistics.gov.uk/about/methodology_by_theme/area_classification/default.asp

The classification show distinct and clear residential patens.Click for map: http://www.casa.ucl.ac.uk/googlemaps/OAC-super-EngScotWales.html


Variable selection.

Can the variables be compared across time?

Can the whole UK be used?

Matching the geography.

Methodology.

Two years separately or all together.

Transformation?

Standardisation.

Method of Clustering.

How many clusters?

Results so far


Variable Selection

Social Class a/b

Social Class c1

Social Class d

Social Class e

Non White


Matching the Geography

1991 data assigned to 2001 geography using population weighted centriods.


Methodology

Data ranked then standardised between 0 -1.

K-means clustering used.

Both years clustered together.

Looking at between 2 – 7 clusters.


Results so far Cluster Number of Case * Cluster Number of Case Crosstabulation

Count

34281 8417 15679 58377

10190 30546 18206 58942

6231 7015 35100 48346

50702 45978 68985 165665

1

2

3

Cluster Numberof Case

Total

1 2 3

Cluster Number of Case

Total

1991

2001

Final Cluster Centers

.67 .59 .23

.63 .50 .29

.29 .37 .70

.21 .23 .70

.70 .17 .48

s_ab

s_c1

s_d

s_e

s_non_white

1 2 3

Cluster

Number of Cases in each Cluster

109079.0

104920.0

117331.0

331330.0

.000

1

2

3

Cluster

Valid

Missing

In the same group: 99,927 (60.3%)

In different group: 65,738 (39.7%)

Cluster 1: -7,675

Cluster 2: -12,964

Cluster 3: +20,639


1991

k3_91 * k3_01 Crosstabulation

Count

540 374 449 1363

329 1719 1921 3969

73 359 2835 3267

942 2452 5205 8599

1

2

3

k3_91

Total

1 2 3

k3_01

Total

2001North East


Count

2268 1292 1929 5489

1279 4722 3474 9475

461 1022 6263 7746

4008 7036 11666 22710

1

2

3

k3_91

Total

1 2 3

k3_01

Total

2001

1991

North West


Count

1459 724 1396 3579

941 3586 2630 7157

365 881 4810 6056

2765 5191 8836 16792

1

2

3

k3_91

Total

1 2 3

k3_01

Total

2001

1991

Yorkshire & the Humber

Cluster 1: -421 (-31%)

Cluster 2: -1,517 (-38%)

Cluster 3: +1,938 (+59%)

Cluster 1: -1,481 (-27%)

Cluster 2: -2,439 (-26%)

Cluster 3: +3,920 (+51%)

Cluster 1: -814 (-23%)

Cluster 2: -1,966 (-27%)

Cluster 3: +2,780 (+46%)


Count

1708 609 1262 3579

737 3037 2021 5795

429 771 3531 4731

2874 4417 6814 14105

1

2

3

k3_91

Total

1 2 3

k3_01

Total


Count

2356 756 2343 5455

952 2948 1727 5627

613 613 5150 6376

3921 4317 9220 17458

1

2

3

k3_91

Total

1 2 3

k3_01

Total


Count

3681 1350 1701 6732

1412 3457 1931 6800

734 935 2999 4668

5827 5742 6631 18200

1

2

3

k3_91

Total

1 2 3

k3_01

Total


1991

2001East Midlands

2001

1991

West Midlands

2001

1991

East

Cluster 1: -705 (-20%)

Cluster 2: -1,378 (-24%)

Cluster 3: +2,083 (+44%)

Cluster 1: -1,534 (-28%)

Cluster 2: -1,310 (-23%)

Cluster 3: +2,639 (+41%)

Cluster 1: -905 (-13%)

Cluster 2: -1,058 (-16%)

Cluster 3: +1,963 (+42%)


Count

1504 1010 720 3234

1307 5864 2363 9534

393 1265 2590 4248

3204 8139 5673 17016

1

2

3

k3_91

Total

1 2 3

k3_01

Total


Count

6610 2111 1854 10575

3010 5134 2018 10162

1356 1134 3418 5908

10976 8379 7290 26645

1

2

3

k3_91

Total

1 2 3

k3_01

Total


Count

14155 191 4025 18371

223 79 121 423

1807 35 3504 5346

16185 305 7650 24140

1

2

3

k3_91

Total

1 2 3

k3_01

Total


1991

2001London

2001

1991

South East

2001

1991

South West

Cluster 1: -2,186 (-12%)

Cluster 2: -118 (-28%)

Cluster 3: +2,304 (+43%)

Cluster 1: +401 (+4%)

Cluster 2: -1,783 (-18%)

Cluster 3: +1,382 (+23%)

Cluster 1: -30 (-1%)

Cluster 2: -1,395 (-15%)

Cluster 3: +1,425 (+34%)


20011991


2001

1991


Changing Residential Patterns 1991 - 2001 Outputs

Papers

Vickers, D.W. and Rees, P.H. (2007). Creating the National Statistics 2001 Output Area Classification. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A 170(2).

Vickers, D.W. and Rees, P.H. (2006). Introducing the National Classification of Census Output Areas, Population Trends, 125.

Conferences and Meetings

June 2006, 3rd International Population Geography Conf, Liverpool.

August 2006, Regional Science, Jersey.

2nd November 2006 Exploring the use and value of the ONS output area classification, seminar at the RSS in London.

Tomorrow, Geodemographics workshop, ICOSS University of Sheffield.

2nd April 2007 repeat of the RSS seminar by popular demand.

April 2007 AAG San Francisco.

Changing Residential Patterns 1991 - 2001 Outputs

Other activities

The formation of a Classification user group as part of the RSS

Website will hopefully be formally lunched on 2nd April

Other meetings and events to follow

http://areaclassification.group.shef.ac.uk/

Changing Residentail Patterns 1991 - 2001

Documents

residentail patterns

clear residential patens

research results

department of geography

research methodologydata

school of geography

research original idea

university of leeds