Changing Pattern Of Energy Demand in Glasgow Jim Whyte 16 th July 2013

Changing Pattern Of Energy Demand inGlasgow

Jim Whyte

16th July 2013

Background: UK Low Carbon Agenda

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• There is a Cunning Plan.......

Background: Translation to UK Energy Picture

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• Thank You National Grid For Scenario Analysis: http://www.nationalgrid.com/uk/Gas/OperationalInfo/TBE/Future+Energy+Scenarios/

• 3 scenario picture with built in Economic Growth Predictions, Axioms and Heroic Assumptions!

• This is only one well laid out and coherent future energy picture created by National Grid (The Major Gas and Electric company in the UK).....

• The Devil is in the detail!

Background: The City Energy Mix Implications

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Heat • Domestic Heating transfer to Electrical Power• Industrial Heat use of Bio-fuels/Mass & Carbon

Capture• Burning Fossil Fuels kept for ‘High Grade Heat’

Transport• Cars (and Buses?) all Electric or Hybrid• Electric Mass transit systems • Burning Fossil Fuels kept for Aviation & Shipping

Background: The future is Electric!

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• Things Don't Take off till Electricity is Cleaned up in the mid 20’s!

• Reduction In Electrical Demand till Then

• Concurrent Reduction In Gas Demand

Glasgow Energy Changes: Energy Efficiency

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• Minimise Energy Requirement!

Devices• Background improvement in Energy

Efficiency• Boilers• Appliances

Buildings• New Development: Managed by

Building Regulations• Retrofit: Massive Encouragement In

Building Improvement• Green Deal• ECO• Carbon Reduction Commitment scheme for

large Commercial & Industrial Users• Building Energy Certificates

Glasgow Energy Changes: Heat

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A Key area for Debate & Decision!Community Energy Systems V Continued Individual Building Installation

Individual Building Installation• Domestic Heat Pumps• Single Commercial Building Level Electrical

Heat/Cooling Pump System’s • Biomass/Bio fuel Installations

Energy Mix Implications• Increased Electrical requirement• Smart Grids and Reinforcement of electrical system

Community Energy Systems• CHP & District Heating networks• Feeds Electrical Energy in & provides Heat• Taps into Waste/Process Heat and Geothermal Heat• Flexible Technology for Energy Centre• Adapt as Low Carbon Requirement Grows

Energy Mix Implications• New Energy Infrastructure: Heat Network• Minimise Requirement for Electrical Reinforcement

Both Valid Solution’s For Low Carbon RequirementCreate a Environment for Mixed Solution Driven by Heat and Building Density?

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Glasgow Energy Changes: Transport

Increased Requirement for Electrical Energy for Transport needs

• Individual Car Use• Buses• Mass Transit Systems

• But....lots of Smart Grid Potential (Smoothing out the Demand Profile)• Overnight Charging• Time of Use Tariffs• Predictable Car Usage : Use of Car

Batteries for Energy Balancing Storage devices etc...

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Glasgow Energy Changes:Low Carbon Technology Penetration

Micro generation• Driven By FITS• PV prevalent in Cities

Community Scale generation• CHP: Dependant on Community Heating schemes

penetration, • CHP: LCT Energy Technology Independent• Others at Low Level: Urban Wind

Micro Renewable Heat • Driven by RHI • Heat Pumps, Air & Ground Sourced• Biomass

Community Scale Renewable Heat • Waste & Process Heat• Geothermal• Large Scale Biomass• Bio-fuels & Anaerobic Digestion

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Glasgow Energy Changes: Summary

Now to 2030• Little Change in Current Energy Mix• Decrease in Energy Use Due to increasing Energy

Efficiencies (balanced by Increasing Population/GDP)

• Drive for Building Improvement, LCT Penetration and Background Clean Up of Electricity

DECC: Updated Energy & Emissions Projections 2012

2030 to 2050• Move away from Hydrocarbon Sources (Gas and

Petrol) to Electrical Energy• Drive for Electric Transport and Electrical

Heating Systems (Heat Pumps)• Continued Drive for LCT Systems to support local

energy Infrastructure• Need for Smart Grids to maximise LCT potential

and minimise new Infrastructure

Decisions By the City To Influence Final Energy Mix Picture

• How to Maximise Energy Efficiency Potential

• Encouragement of Citizens LCT take Up• Mass Transit Transport Decisions • Strategic Decisions on Supply of Heat

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